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日本银行业国际竞争力变化研究
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摘要
1955年日本进入经济高速增长时期,从1955年至1973年,年均实际经济增长率高达9.3%,在1968年其经济总量超过原联邦德国,成为仅次于美国的资本主义世界第二经济大国。伴随着经济的高速增长,日本银行业国际竞争力也奠定了雄厚的资本基础。20世纪80年代金融自由化和金融全球化日益发展,日本在金融领域逐步放松一些规制促进了其金融国际化的发展。日本金融机构开始大举进入海外,促使东京国际金融市场的地位大大提高,日元走向国际化。1986年末,日本商业银行的海外资产已占其资产总额的20%,国际业务收入占总收入的比重达到了22%。整个20世纪80年代,日本银行业全行业实现大规模盈利;全球银行产业的利润主要来自日本银行,这让欧美竞争对手望尘莫及。
     20世纪90年代初“泡沫经济”崩溃,日本经济陷入了长期萧条。但是,国际银行业掀起的并购浪潮促使日本银行业在这次变革中规模更加扩大。1992年,排在世界前九位的商业银行均为日本所有,世界前五十家商业银行中也有近一半(22家)是日本的银行。1994年,日本银行业在这两项中所占位置有所减少,但世界前六大商业银行仍为日本所有;在全世界银行业总资产中,日本占了近40%。
     1995年“住专事件”这一导火索暴露了日本银行业的巨额不良债权问题,日本银行业的国际竞争力由此急转直下。从1992年至2002年这10年间,日本的银行已处理了大约90万亿日元左右的不良债权,这一数额己达到20世纪80年代后半期日本经济“泡沫”繁荣时银行所增加贷款额的80%。“泡沫经济”崩溃使得日本银行业累积了巨额不良债权,日本银行业国际竞争力大幅削弱,将日本经济拖入了长期萧条泥潭而难以自拔。日本金融当局并没有从1997~1998年东南亚金融危机和1998年日本“金融大爆炸”之中切实理清日本银行业危机的深层原因,始终在制度疲劳和制度惯性形成的路径依赖以及政府作用之间找寻解决出口。这种牵制作用体现在政府出台的各种处理措施、改革方案和政策对策方面都不能取得预期的效果,最终拖延了时间和贻误了最佳时机,使得日本银行业国际竞争力一蹶不振。2008年国际金融危机以及随后延伸演化且日趋恶化的欧洲主权债务危机,使得日本政府疲于应对外部冲击而相应推迟了国内的改革,这也阻碍了日本银行业国际竞争力的提升。通过梳理日本银行业的形成与发展历程,可以从中找寻出其国际竞争力兴替的演化路径、深层原因和生成机制,这对于中国金融深化进程中提升商业银行国际竞争力、防范金融风险和维护国家金融安全具有重要的战略意义。
     本文分为7章。第1章为导论。本章主要论述选题的理论意义和现实意义,并在此基础上梳理和评述相关国内外文献,而后进一步探讨论文的逻辑结构和主要研究方法,最后指出本文的创新和不足之处。
     第2章为银行业国际竞争力理论及其评价标准。本章首先介绍银行业国际竞争力及其相关理论,然后阐述银行业国际竞争力的评价标准,最后介绍银行业国际竞争力的评价体系。
     第3章为日本银行业国际竞争力形成与发展的历史变迁。本章日本银行业国际竞争力的发展变化划分为由弱变强和由强变弱两个演变阶段进行详细梳理。在日本银行业国际竞争力由弱变强的演变中,文章进一步从经济萌芽和起飞时期(1955年以前)、经济高速增长时期(1955~1973年)和经济低速或稳定增长时期(1974~1985年)三个阶段分别进行展开;在日本银行业国际竞争力由强变弱的演变中,文章进一步从泡沫经济时期(1986~1990年)和经济长期萧条时期(1991年~至今)两个典型阶段展开论述。
     第4章为导致20世纪90年代中期以来日本银行业国际竞争力变化的宏观动因。本章从国际环境和国内环境两大方面进行分析:在国际环境分析方面,主要围绕跨国并购浪潮高涨、国际资本流动规模急剧膨胀、全球经济失衡与金融危机和新资本协议四个方面进行详细论述;在国内环境分析方面,主要集中在国内生产总值(GDP)增长率下降、流动性陷阱和量化宽松政策、日元持续升值和“住专事件”五个方面进行展开。
     第5章为导致20世纪90年代中期以来日本银行业国际竞争力变化的微观动因。本章论述导致日本银行业国际竞争力下降的银行自身原因,这一部分主要从银行特许权价值、治理结构、内部控制和审计监管四个方面展开论述。
     第6章为导致20世纪90年代中期以来日本银行业国际竞争力削弱的生成机制。本章将日本银行业国际竞争力削弱的生成机制归结为两大方面:一是制度疲劳和制度惯性形成的制度僵化“硬约束”;二是政府作用弱化形成的“软约束”。“硬约束”体现了制度变迁所具有的路径依赖属性,制度惯性和制度疲劳使得日本银行业和企业之间的利益纽带难以割舍,这样会增加银行不良资产的存量积累;“软约束”体现了政府在经济中主导作用的弱化,从“政府主导型经济”转向“市场主导型经济”过程中原来经济鼎盛时期的强政府作用被经济萧条时期的弱政府作用所替代,这样在处理银行业巨额不良资产等重大问题上极易贻误时机而陷入恶性循环泥潭难于自拔。
     第7章为结论和启示。本文的结论归结为三个方面:(1)日本银行业国际竞争力的兴衰变化反映了日本经济从高速增长、泡沫经济转向长期萧条的内生演化路径;(2)日本银行业国际竞争力的兴衰变化具有深刻的宏观动因和微观动因;(3)制度僵化和政府作用弱化共同促成20世纪90年代中期以来日本银行业国际竞争力由盛及衰的变化。日本银行业国际竞争力的兴衰变化对于中国银行业的发展具有重要的启示:(1)实施基于Basel III的新资本监管标准,增强中国银行体系的稳健性和风险可控性;(2)构建价值创造导向的商业银行内部控制体系;(3)强化商业银行内部控制与内部审计的互动;(4)信息披露与外部监管的强化约束有助于夯实中国银行业国际竞争力的基础。
The Japanese economy has entered a period of rapid growth since1955.Theaverage annual real economic growth has reached up to9.3%during the period of1955-1972. Japan’s gross national product exceeded that of Germany in1968, bywhich Japan became the second largest economy behind the U.S. in the capitalistworld. Accompanied by rapid economic growth, in the Japanese banking industry hasalso laid a solid capital foundation for its international competitiveness. With theincreasing development of financial liberalization and globalization, there has somegradual deregulations in the Japan’s financial sectors to promote the development ofits financial globalization since the1980s. Japan’s financial institutions have began toexpand access to overseas,thus greatly enhancing the status of the TokyoInternational Financial Market and the internationalization of Japanese yen. By theend of1986, the overseas assets in Japanese commercial banks have accounted for20%of its total assets and22%in international business revenues. Throughout the1980s, the Japanese banking industry has achieved large-scale profits and in large partcontributed to the global banking industry profits, which makes the European andAmerican competitors far behind.
     The bubble economy collapsed in the early1990s and the Japanese economyentered into a prolonged slump. However, the M&A wave set off by the internationalbanking industry prompted the Japanese banking sector to expand its scale even morein this change. In1992, the world's top nine commercial banks are Japanese banksand nearly half (22)of the world's top50commercial banks was also from Japan. In1994, the Japanese banks decreased in these two ranks, but still ranked the world’s top six commercial banks. Among the world's total banking assets, Japan onceaccounted for nearly40%.
     In1995, the breakout of the Jusen Event uncovered huge amounts ofnon-performing loans in Japanese banks, with which the internationalcompetitiveness in the Japanese banking was made worse from the global financialdominance. The collapse of bubble economy accumulated a huge amount ofnon-performing loans in Japanese banks, the international competitiveness in theJapanese banking became substantially weakened, the Japanese economy into aprolonged slump unable to extricate themselves. During the decade from1992to2002, Japanese banks have dealt with about90trillion yen of bad debts, of which thisamount has reached80%of total increased loans that was issued in Japan's economicbubble boom during the latter half of1980s.The1997Asian Financial Crisis and the1998“Financial Big Bang” don’t make financial authorities really clarify theunderlying causes of Japanese banking crisis, always finding solutions between thepath dependence, formed by the system fatigue and institutional inertia, and the roleof government. It is reflected that the government didn’t gain expected effects onvarious measures, reform programs and policy responses, thus causing final delaysand missing best opportunities. The international competitiveness in Japanesebanking industry fell from the financial peak and devastated. The2008internationalfinancial crisis and the subsequent extension of the deterioration of Europeansovereign debt crisis have made the Japanese government struggling to cope withexternal shocks and accordingly delaying domestic reforms, which also hampers theupgrading of the international competitiveness in Japanese banks. Through theformation and the evolution of the Japanese banking industry, the evolutionary pathand the underlying causes as well as the formation mechanism should be searched forthe rise and fall of its international competitiveness. It has important strategicsignificance for China to enhance the international competitiveness of her commercial banks,to prevent financial risks and to maintain national financial security in thefinancial deepening process.
     The dissertation is divided into seven chapters. The first chapter is Introduction.In this chapter,the research’s theoretical and practical significances should bediscussed and the relevant literature is sorted out and reviewed on this basis.Then themain structure and research methods of the thesis are further explored. Finally theinnovation and deficiencies of the dissertation should be pointed out.
     The second chapter deals with relevant theories on the banking industry’sinternational competitiveness and its evaluation criteria. The relevant theories on thebanking industry’s international competitiveness are introduced first. Then theevaluation criteria of the banking industry’s international competitiveness is described.Finally, the evaluation systems of the banking industry international competitivenessare mentioned.
     The third chapter deals with the formation and development of internationalcompetitiveness in the Japanese banking. The changes of the internationalcompetitiveness in the Japanese banking are divided into two evolution stages fromweak to strong and from strong to weak in details. In the stage evolving from weak tostrong in the Japanese banking’s international competitiveness, it is further dividedinto three phases: the economic sprout and take-off period (before1955), rapideconomic growth period (1955to1973) and low or stable economic growth period(1974to1985); In the stage evolving from strong to weak in the Japanese banking’sinternational competitiveness, it is also further divided into two typical phases: thebubble economy period (1986to1990) and economic prolonged slowdown period(1991to present).
     The fourth chapter deals with the macro motivations leading to the changes ofinternational competitiveness in the Japanese banking since the mid-1990s. Theinternational and domestic environments are commented in two key aspects: in terms of the international environment, it embraces four aspects: up-surging cross-border M&A wave, rapid expansion of international capital flows, global imbalances and theinternational financial crisis and the New Basel Capital Accord; in terms of thedomestic environment, it is also focused on four aspects in details: the declining grossdomestic product (GDP) growth, liquidity traps and quantitative easing policy,continuing appreciation of the Japanese yen and the Jusen Event.
     The fifth chapter deals with the micro motivations leading to the changes ofinternational competitiveness in the Japanese banking since the mid-1990s. In thischapter, the declining international competitiveness in the Japanese banking isdiscussed for their own reasons. There are mainly four related aspects including bankfranchise value, governance structure, internal control and audit supervision.
     The sixth chapter deals with the formation mechanism leading to the weakenedinternational competitiveness in the Japanese banking since the mid-1990s. In thischapter, the formation mechanism should be attributed to two major aspects: the firstis “hard constraints” resulting from the system fatigue and institutional inertia; thesecond is “soft constraints” resulting from the weakening role of government.“Hardconstraints” reflect institutional changes as the nature of path dependence, that is, theinstitutional fatigue and institutional inertia make it difficult to give up the interestties between Japanese banks and firms, which will increase the stock accumulation ofbanks' non-performing loans; in the meanwhile,“soft constraints” reflect thegovernment's leading role weakening in the economy, that is, the weak role ofgovernment in economic slowdown is replaced by the strong role of government inrapid economic growth from the transition of government-led economy tomarket-oriented economy, thus resulting in delay and missing best opportunities indealing with huge amounts of non-performing loans unable to extricate themselves.
     The seventh chapter is Conclusions and Implications. The conclusions of thisdissertation are attributed to three aspects:(1) the changes of rise and fall in the Japanese banking’s international competitiveness reflect the endogenous evolutionarypath of Japanese economy evolving from the rapid growth, the bubble economy toprolonged slowdown;(2) the changes of rise-and-fall in the Japanese banking’sinternational competitiveness reflect have a profound macro-and micro-motivation;(3)the rigid system and the weakening role of government are jointly contributed tothe changes in the Japanese banking since the mid-1990s. There are some importantimplications for China to enhance the banking’s international competitiveness:(1)implementation of the new capital regulatory standards should enhance the robustnessof the banking system;(2) value-creation-oriented commercial banks' internal controlsystem should be built;(3) the interaction between internal control and internal auditin commercial banks should be strengthened;(4) the strengthening constraintsbetween information disclosure and external supervision should contribute to thefoundation of enhancing the international competitiveness in the Chinese banking.
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