中国生产性服务业的发展及影响因素研究
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摘要
近十几年来,全球产业结构发生了重大变化。服务业蓬勃发展,逐渐成为各国国民经济的主导产业。在服务业内部,生产性服务业具有突出的地位,其发展引起了众多关注。改革开放以来,我国经济依靠资源投入和出口需求驱动的粗放型增长取得了举世瞩目的成就,同时也付出了资源大量消耗、污染日趋严重的代价。为了保证经济的可持续发展,必须实现向技术进步和效率提高驱动的集约型增长的转型。转型期的重要内容就是服务业尤其是生产性服务业的发展。发展生产性服务业对于提升产业竞争力、优化经济结构、降低社会成本、提高经济效率具有重要的作用。大力发展服务业特别是生产性服务业已经成为我国各级政府的共识。目前我国生产性服务业的比重较小,而且区域间差异较大。因此研究生产性服务业发展的规律具有重要意义。
要促进生产性服务业发展,必须营造良好的制度环境。首先需要了解我国生产性服务业发展的现状如何,发展处于什么阶段,发展的趋势是什么,有哪些因素影响其发展。本文从上述几个方面进行了研究,旨在为我国生产性服务业的发展提供有价值的参考意见。本文的主要研究工作和结论如下：
一、从总量、结构、效率和产业关联四个角度对我国生产性服务业目前的发展状况进行了详细的分析。从产出情况看,虽然生产性服务业名义增加值增长较快,但是实际产出增长缓慢。生产性服务业的固定资产投资占服务业总投资的2/3左右,而产出和就业只占1/3左右。在生产性服务业内部,交通运输业的增加值比重和就业比重都是最大的。在全社会固定资产投资方面,房地产业投资占据了生产性服务业总投资的60%以上。相对劳动生产率分析表明,不管是以服务业为整体还是以国民经济为整体,生产性服务业各分行业的相对劳动生产率都大于1,说明生产性服务业的生产率相对于服务业以及国民经济其他行业来说,超出了平均水平。产业关联分析显示,我国制造业的中间投入中直接来自生产性服务业的并不占多数,说明我国生产性服务业并未有效地发挥为制造业提供服务的作用。
二、从理论上探索了推动生产性服务业产生和发展的内因和外因,提出生产性服务业的发展阶段理论。以交通运输业、金融业和房地产业作为生产性服务业的代表,考察了我国各省区生产性服务业的发展水平,然后划分区域,结合各行业在各区域的发展现状,对其目前的发展阶段进行初步界定。建立Panel Data模型,分析了投资和就业对行业发展的影响,以验证行业发展阶段的判定结论。研究认为：交通运输业在东部和中部处于发展期,在西部处于萌芽期；金融业在东部处于发展期,中部和西部处于萌芽期；房地产业在东部进入成熟期,在中部和西部处于发展期。
三、结合微观经济理论,从劳动需求和劳动供给的角度分析了技术水平、人力资本、工资水平、产出水平和城市化水平对生产性服务业就业的影响。利用Panel Data模型对生产性服务业就业的影响因素进行实证检验。检验结果表明,经济发展水平和城市化水平的提高可以促进生产性服务业就业,生产性服务业上期产出对当期就业具有正向的影响,而人力资本水平和工资水平对生产性服务业就业具有负向影响。
四、利用Engle和Granger两步法建立长期均衡模型和误差修正模型,对生产性服务业在我国东部、中部和西部的产出的影响因素分别建立模型进行分析。考察的影响因素为制造业规模、固定资产投资、就业水平、区域经济水平和城市化水平。分析表明,东部的区域经济水平和城市化水平在长期和短期都对生产性服务业发展起到了促进作用,而制造业在长期对生产性服务业产生负向影响。中部地区城市化水平在长期和短期对生产性服务业的影响都为负值。西部各因素的长期影响除了制造业为负以外,其他都为正；短期中制造业和投资的影响显著为正,城市化影响显著为负。
五、利用空间经济学的集聚指标衡量了我国生产性服务业总体和各分行业的集聚状况,辨析每一行业的优势地区和各地区的优势产业。各行业集聚水平比较而言,交通运输业和金融业的集聚水平较低,房地产业、信息服务业、商务服务业和科技服务业的集聚水平略高。从集聚的发展趋势来看,生产性服务业各行业的集聚水平基本上都是逐年上升的。另外,从向心力和离心力两个角度对产业集聚的影响因素进行了分析,提出理论假说,然后利用Panel Data模型对假说进行实证检验。检验结果表明：目前我国的制造业份额、创新密度、外向度、地理位置和失业率都是生产性服务业集聚的向心力,而路网密度是离心力。
六、将我国生产性服务业的发展状况与美国、日本、德国、法国、英国五个发达国家和巴西、俄罗斯、印度、南非四个金砖国家进行了比较分析。与发达国家相比,我国生产性服务业的产值比重和就业比重基本上都占其水平的一半,差距主要在房地产业。在发展趋势上,我国生产性服务业产值占增加值的比重近十几年来不升反降,这一趋势与五个发达国家相反,但是与巴西、俄罗斯、南非等金砖国家相似。与金砖国家的比较分析可知,我国生产性服务业在发展阶段相似的国家中并不落后。
The global industrial structure has changed significantly in the last ten years. Service industries are flourishing and becoming an important sector of the economy in most countries. Service industries include producer services and consumer services. Producer services which provide services to producers are drawing more attention. Since reform and openess, China's economy has grown very fast. But the success of economic development has brought over-use of resources and serious environmental pollution. To ensure sustainable development, we need to create a new growth model which use less natural resources and help reduce pollution. An important piece of the new model will be service industries, especially the producer services. The development of producer services will promote competitive power of industry, optimize the economic structure, reduce social costs and increase economic efficiency. Producer services in China currently represent a small fraction of the economy and show big difference between different regions. Now, government departments of all ranks attach importance to producer services.
To make good system environment for producer services, we should understand its situation, development stage, trend in development and the influencing factor. This thesis studies from the above aspects, trying to do something for the development of producer services in China. The main research works as follows:
First, this thesis analyses the current situation of China's producer services from four aspects; gross input-output, inner industrial structure, productivity and industrial relationships. It finds that the nominal gross product of producer services grows fast, but the actual gross product grows slowly. The investment in the fixed assets of producer services takes up2/3of services, while the output and employment only takes up about1/3. As for inner industrial structure, this thesis stduies three industries of producer services, which are transport service, financial industry and real estate industry. On product and employment proportion, transport service is the biggest of the three industries. On investment in the fixed assets, real estate industry is the largest, which takes up60percent of the whole producer services investment in the fixed assets. Comparative labor productivity of all industries of producer services is bigger than1, which shows the productivity of producer services is greater than the average. The industrial relationship analysis indicates that the producer services don't effectively play a big role to the manufacturing industry until now.
Secondly, this thesis explores the internal and external factors which drive the creation and development of producer services, and puts forward a producer services' development theory. Taking transport service, financial industry and real estate industry as representative of producer services, this thesis explores the development level for producer services'in every provincial city. The next level of analysis divides the country into three regions; the eastland, the midland and the west. The thesis examines the three industries in each of the three regions, and advances a theory of producer services'development stages. Then it builds Panel Data models to analyze the influence of investment and employment on industry development. The research shows that transport service has entered the development period in both the eastland and the midland, but is only in the germination stage in the west. Financial industry is in development period in the eastland, and in the germination stage in both the midland and the west. Real estate industry is in the maturation period in the eastland, and in the development period in both the midland and the west. The data shows the eastland has the most development overall for producer services, and the west has the least.
Thirdly, based on the theory of labour supply and demand from microeconomics, the thesis analyzes the influences of technical level, human capital, wage, output and employment urbanization on producer services. It uses the Panel Data model to research the influence factors of producer services' employment. The result shows economic development, urbanization and output level have a positive effect on employment, while human capital and wage level create negative impact.
Fourthly, using ECM and Panel Data Model, the paper explores the long and short term influences of manufacturing sector, investment, employment, regional economy and urbanization on producer services in the three regions. The result shows that economic growth has a positive effect on producer services in every region,in both the long and short run, while other factors show varying influences in the three regions. In the long run, in the eastland, both investment and employment level will create growth of producer services, while manufacturing sector has crowding-out effect.In the midland, investment, employment level and urbanization have negative effect on producer services, regardless of long run or short run; in the west, except for the negative effect of manufacturing sector, other factors all support producer services. In the short run, investment in the eastland, urbanization in the midland and the west all show negative effects, other influences show positive effects.
Spatial economics theory, is used to measure the agglomeration level of producer services in China, by using spatial Gini coefficient and location quotient index. This analysus identifies the advantaged regions of every industry and the advantaged industries of every region. It puts forward influencing factors hypothesis and analyze the hypotheses with a Panel Data model. The result shows, as for influencing factors of agglomeration of producer services, manufacturing share, innovation density, ratio of dependence on foreign trade, geographical position and unemployment rate are all centripetal forces, while road net density is a centrifugal force. Scale economy is centripetal force theoretically, but here it does not show notable impact.
Finally, it makes a comparative analysis of China's producer services to producer services in developed countries and other "BRICS" countries. Comparisons are made with countries such as the United States, Japan, Germany, France and the United Kingdom, China's producer services' proportion of both gross product and employment are all about half of that of the developed countries. China's producer services' proportion of gross product has declined over the past ten years. This tendency is opposite that the pattern of the developed countries, and resembles to other "BRICS" countries, such as Brazil, Russia and South Africa.
要促进生产性服务业发展,必须营造良好的制度环境。首先需要了解我国生产性服务业发展的现状如何,发展处于什么阶段,发展的趋势是什么,有哪些因素影响其发展。本文从上述几个方面进行了研究,旨在为我国生产性服务业的发展提供有价值的参考意见。本文的主要研究工作和结论如下：
一、从总量、结构、效率和产业关联四个角度对我国生产性服务业目前的发展状况进行了详细的分析。从产出情况看,虽然生产性服务业名义增加值增长较快,但是实际产出增长缓慢。生产性服务业的固定资产投资占服务业总投资的2/3左右,而产出和就业只占1/3左右。在生产性服务业内部,交通运输业的增加值比重和就业比重都是最大的。在全社会固定资产投资方面,房地产业投资占据了生产性服务业总投资的60%以上。相对劳动生产率分析表明,不管是以服务业为整体还是以国民经济为整体,生产性服务业各分行业的相对劳动生产率都大于1,说明生产性服务业的生产率相对于服务业以及国民经济其他行业来说,超出了平均水平。产业关联分析显示,我国制造业的中间投入中直接来自生产性服务业的并不占多数,说明我国生产性服务业并未有效地发挥为制造业提供服务的作用。
二、从理论上探索了推动生产性服务业产生和发展的内因和外因,提出生产性服务业的发展阶段理论。以交通运输业、金融业和房地产业作为生产性服务业的代表,考察了我国各省区生产性服务业的发展水平,然后划分区域,结合各行业在各区域的发展现状,对其目前的发展阶段进行初步界定。建立Panel Data模型,分析了投资和就业对行业发展的影响,以验证行业发展阶段的判定结论。研究认为：交通运输业在东部和中部处于发展期,在西部处于萌芽期；金融业在东部处于发展期,中部和西部处于萌芽期；房地产业在东部进入成熟期,在中部和西部处于发展期。
三、结合微观经济理论,从劳动需求和劳动供给的角度分析了技术水平、人力资本、工资水平、产出水平和城市化水平对生产性服务业就业的影响。利用Panel Data模型对生产性服务业就业的影响因素进行实证检验。检验结果表明,经济发展水平和城市化水平的提高可以促进生产性服务业就业,生产性服务业上期产出对当期就业具有正向的影响,而人力资本水平和工资水平对生产性服务业就业具有负向影响。
四、利用Engle和Granger两步法建立长期均衡模型和误差修正模型,对生产性服务业在我国东部、中部和西部的产出的影响因素分别建立模型进行分析。考察的影响因素为制造业规模、固定资产投资、就业水平、区域经济水平和城市化水平。分析表明,东部的区域经济水平和城市化水平在长期和短期都对生产性服务业发展起到了促进作用,而制造业在长期对生产性服务业产生负向影响。中部地区城市化水平在长期和短期对生产性服务业的影响都为负值。西部各因素的长期影响除了制造业为负以外,其他都为正；短期中制造业和投资的影响显著为正,城市化影响显著为负。
五、利用空间经济学的集聚指标衡量了我国生产性服务业总体和各分行业的集聚状况,辨析每一行业的优势地区和各地区的优势产业。各行业集聚水平比较而言,交通运输业和金融业的集聚水平较低,房地产业、信息服务业、商务服务业和科技服务业的集聚水平略高。从集聚的发展趋势来看,生产性服务业各行业的集聚水平基本上都是逐年上升的。另外,从向心力和离心力两个角度对产业集聚的影响因素进行了分析,提出理论假说,然后利用Panel Data模型对假说进行实证检验。检验结果表明：目前我国的制造业份额、创新密度、外向度、地理位置和失业率都是生产性服务业集聚的向心力,而路网密度是离心力。
六、将我国生产性服务业的发展状况与美国、日本、德国、法国、英国五个发达国家和巴西、俄罗斯、印度、南非四个金砖国家进行了比较分析。与发达国家相比,我国生产性服务业的产值比重和就业比重基本上都占其水平的一半,差距主要在房地产业。在发展趋势上,我国生产性服务业产值占增加值的比重近十几年来不升反降,这一趋势与五个发达国家相反,但是与巴西、俄罗斯、南非等金砖国家相似。与金砖国家的比较分析可知,我国生产性服务业在发展阶段相似的国家中并不落后。
The global industrial structure has changed significantly in the last ten years. Service industries are flourishing and becoming an important sector of the economy in most countries. Service industries include producer services and consumer services. Producer services which provide services to producers are drawing more attention. Since reform and openess, China's economy has grown very fast. But the success of economic development has brought over-use of resources and serious environmental pollution. To ensure sustainable development, we need to create a new growth model which use less natural resources and help reduce pollution. An important piece of the new model will be service industries, especially the producer services. The development of producer services will promote competitive power of industry, optimize the economic structure, reduce social costs and increase economic efficiency. Producer services in China currently represent a small fraction of the economy and show big difference between different regions. Now, government departments of all ranks attach importance to producer services.
To make good system environment for producer services, we should understand its situation, development stage, trend in development and the influencing factor. This thesis studies from the above aspects, trying to do something for the development of producer services in China. The main research works as follows:
First, this thesis analyses the current situation of China's producer services from four aspects; gross input-output, inner industrial structure, productivity and industrial relationships. It finds that the nominal gross product of producer services grows fast, but the actual gross product grows slowly. The investment in the fixed assets of producer services takes up2/3of services, while the output and employment only takes up about1/3. As for inner industrial structure, this thesis stduies three industries of producer services, which are transport service, financial industry and real estate industry. On product and employment proportion, transport service is the biggest of the three industries. On investment in the fixed assets, real estate industry is the largest, which takes up60percent of the whole producer services investment in the fixed assets. Comparative labor productivity of all industries of producer services is bigger than1, which shows the productivity of producer services is greater than the average. The industrial relationship analysis indicates that the producer services don't effectively play a big role to the manufacturing industry until now.
Secondly, this thesis explores the internal and external factors which drive the creation and development of producer services, and puts forward a producer services' development theory. Taking transport service, financial industry and real estate industry as representative of producer services, this thesis explores the development level for producer services'in every provincial city. The next level of analysis divides the country into three regions; the eastland, the midland and the west. The thesis examines the three industries in each of the three regions, and advances a theory of producer services'development stages. Then it builds Panel Data models to analyze the influence of investment and employment on industry development. The research shows that transport service has entered the development period in both the eastland and the midland, but is only in the germination stage in the west. Financial industry is in development period in the eastland, and in the germination stage in both the midland and the west. Real estate industry is in the maturation period in the eastland, and in the development period in both the midland and the west. The data shows the eastland has the most development overall for producer services, and the west has the least.
Thirdly, based on the theory of labour supply and demand from microeconomics, the thesis analyzes the influences of technical level, human capital, wage, output and employment urbanization on producer services. It uses the Panel Data model to research the influence factors of producer services' employment. The result shows economic development, urbanization and output level have a positive effect on employment, while human capital and wage level create negative impact.
Fourthly, using ECM and Panel Data Model, the paper explores the long and short term influences of manufacturing sector, investment, employment, regional economy and urbanization on producer services in the three regions. The result shows that economic growth has a positive effect on producer services in every region,in both the long and short run, while other factors show varying influences in the three regions. In the long run, in the eastland, both investment and employment level will create growth of producer services, while manufacturing sector has crowding-out effect.In the midland, investment, employment level and urbanization have negative effect on producer services, regardless of long run or short run; in the west, except for the negative effect of manufacturing sector, other factors all support producer services. In the short run, investment in the eastland, urbanization in the midland and the west all show negative effects, other influences show positive effects.
Spatial economics theory, is used to measure the agglomeration level of producer services in China, by using spatial Gini coefficient and location quotient index. This analysus identifies the advantaged regions of every industry and the advantaged industries of every region. It puts forward influencing factors hypothesis and analyze the hypotheses with a Panel Data model. The result shows, as for influencing factors of agglomeration of producer services, manufacturing share, innovation density, ratio of dependence on foreign trade, geographical position and unemployment rate are all centripetal forces, while road net density is a centrifugal force. Scale economy is centripetal force theoretically, but here it does not show notable impact.
Finally, it makes a comparative analysis of China's producer services to producer services in developed countries and other "BRICS" countries. Comparisons are made with countries such as the United States, Japan, Germany, France and the United Kingdom, China's producer services' proportion of both gross product and employment are all about half of that of the developed countries. China's producer services' proportion of gross product has declined over the past ten years. This tendency is opposite that the pattern of the developed countries, and resembles to other "BRICS" countries, such as Brazil, Russia and South Africa.
引文
③江小涓,“中国开放三十年的回顾与展望”,《中国社会科学》,2008年第6期,pp.66-85。
①李善同、高传胜等著,《中国生产者服务业发展与制造业升级》,上海三联书店,2008年11月第1版,序言pp.2。
①李文星,“产业结构优化与就业增长”,《当代财经》,2012年第3期。
②江小涓,“产业结构优化升级：新阶段和新任务”,《财贸经济》,2005年第4期。江小涓、李辉(2004)计算得到2002年第二产业的就业增长弹性为负数,说明第二产业吸纳的就业人员在下降。
③李善同、高传胜等,《中国生产性服务业发展与制造业升级》,上海三联书店,2008年11月第1版,pp.5。
① Paolo Gerrierj, Valentina Meliciani. International Competitiveness in Producer Services, paper prepared for the SETI meeting in Rome,2003。
① Andersson, M., " Co-location of Manufacturing & Producer Services:A Simultaneous Equation Approach.", Working Paper,2004。
①原毅军、董琨：《产业结构的变动与优化：理论解释和定量分析》,大连理工大学出版社,2008年1月第1版,pp51。
③刘起运等,《投入产出分析》,中国人民大学出版社,2006年11月第1版,pp.44。
①梁琦,《分工、集聚与增长》,北京：商务印书馆,2009年8月第1版,ppl3。
①平新乔,《微观经济学十八讲》,北京大学出版社,2001年4月第1版,pp.274。
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