广东低碳经济发展机制的系统动力学研究
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摘要
由于低碳经济系统结构的复杂性表现为非线性、反馈回路和延滞等,因此,运用系统的方法分析低碳经济发展机制问题,即从宏观到微观,从整体出发看问题,并给出可操作的解决问题的方案,是研究低碳经济发展机制的一个崭新视角。本文基于系统动力学理论,综合运用系统基模分析法、灰色关联分析法、因素分析法、DEA分析法、脉冲响应函数分析法、方差分解分析法,以及VAR模型(向量自回归模型Vector Auto-Regression; VAR)、VECM模型(向量误差修正模型)、柯布-道格拉斯(Cobb-Douglas)生产函数模型等方法和模型进行大量的实证分析和论证,检验了前人经验研究的结论(六个研究假设),揭示了低碳经济发展中的动力机制、保障机制和引导机制三大机制的作用机理,运行Vensim PLES.7a系统仿真软件对低碳经济发展机制进行系统仿真研究,共建立了41个方程,其中流率方程5个,流位方程5个,辅助方程28个,常量方程3个,仿真方程运行时间为1998年至2015年。模型通过有效性检验、直观检验、量纲检验以及拟合值检验,平均误差率为3.09%,模型的拟合程度较好,仿真模型的科学性、可靠性和有效性均通过检验。本文得到如下新的研究发现：
(1)当低碳工业园区对第二产业增加值的影响因子、技术创新平台影响因子、税收优惠政策影响因子这三个外生调控变量都为1时,1998年到2015年17年间广东第二产业增加值与第三产业增加值比值的变化趋势是：1998年至2001年这三年时间内,第二产业增加值与第三产业增加值的比值不断下降,2001年达到最低点。2001年到2007年第二产业增加值与第三产业增加值的比值开始不断上升,这主要是因为第三产业尚未超过第二产业,而第二产业自身通过高新技术改造,使内部结构不断优化造成的。2007年之后2015年则呈现不断下降的趋势,这表明产业结构正由第二产为主向第三产为主转变,产业结构呈高级化趋势。
(2)当低碳工业园区对第二产业增加值的影响因子、技术创新平台影响因子、税收优惠政策影响因子这三个外生调控变量都为1时,1998年到2015年17年间广东万元GDP能耗的变化趋势是：万元GDP能耗可分两段时期,一段是1998年至2005年,这段时期GDP能耗没有明显的趋势,而是呈现波动状态。这可能是因为低碳经济发展机制没有发挥其应有的作用造成的。2005年以后万元GDP呈现逐年下降的趋势,说明低碳经济发展机制起到一定的作用。
(3)1998-2015年广东GDP总量、碳排放量变化趋势是：在2005年之前,两者之间的关系不太明显。2005年至2015年GDP总量与碳排放量两者的变化趋·势基本相同,都呈上升趋势,而且两者之间的距离趋于缩小。这表明2005年以来,G-DP的增长与碳排放量的增长呈现一个相对脱钩的趋势,这有利于低碳经济的发展。
(4)当低碳工业园区对第二产业增加值的影响因子、技术创新平台影响因子、税收优惠政策影响因子这三个外生调控变量都取值为1.2时,观察广东1998-2015年GDP总量、万元GDP能耗、碳排放量、第二、第三产业增加值比值示意图,把它与图6.2、图6.3、图6.4进行对比分析,可发现当这三个外生调控变量起作用时,万元GDP能耗更少了,GDP总量与碳排放量两者之间的距离也更近了,第二产业增加值与第三产业增加值的比值更小了、且第二、三产业增加值曲线更加平滑了。因此,针对性地运用“低碳工业园区对第二产业增加值的影响因子、技术创新平台影响因子、税收优惠政策影响因子”这三个外生调控变量制定相关政策机制,将有利促进低碳经济发展。
第一章首先阐明了研究背景及其意义、国内外研究现状、研究的主要内容及基本框架、研究方法、技术路线等问题,然后第二章在对广东低碳经济发展现状和碳排放历史数据进行描述性统计分析的基础上,对低碳经济发展机制的系统构成进行分析,提出研究假设和理论框架构建。低碳经济发展机制,从技术层面来说,有低碳能源技术开发机制、生态环境补偿机制、低碳产品认证体系、碳排放约束机制；从系统动力学的角度看,主要有动力机制、保障机制和引导机制等三个主要子系统,三大机制通过协同作用,构成了低碳经济发展机制系统。接着,介绍了系统动力学原理和系统基模等内容,为第三、四、五和第六章做理论铺垫。本章研究的重点是低碳经济发展的动力机制、保障机制和引导机制等三个主要子系统的作用机理。
第三章为了从理论上创造性地构建低碳经济发展动力机制的系统基模,以广东为例进行实证,借以检验根据经验研究结论提出的理论假设1和理论假设2。选择从能源消费结构和科技创新能力两个方面进行实证分析和检验该理论假设的真伪。实证分析表明,能源消费总量主要来自于两个方面：一是与人口总量有关,人口越多,每天消费的能源也越多。二是与第一、二、三产业的产值有关。一般来讲,第一、二、三产业的产值越大,其消耗的能源也越多。而技术创新能力对能源消费总量和第一、二、三产业的作用是不同的。技术创新能力越强,能源使用效率越高,相应的可降低能源消费总量。而技术创新能力越强,其对第一、二、三产业产值的增加是具有促进作用的。技术创新能力强弱主要受R&D人员数和R&D经费支出两个因素的影响。而R&D经费支出它受GDP总量的影响。一般来说,经济越强(GDP总量),用于R&D经费支出也就越多。
研究表明：技术创新能力越强,能源使用效率越高,相应的可降低能源消费总量。能源消费总量的增加会使碳排放量也相应增加,而碳排放量的增加会促使对技术创新能力需求的增加,技术创新能力需求的增加,会使技术创新能力也相应增强,技术创新能力的增强会使能源消费总量减少。在负反馈环中技术创新能力是影响能源消费总量的直接因素。
第四章为进行低碳经济发展的保障机制系统基模分析,检验如下研究假设：研究假设3：科技研发平台建设是低碳经济发展机制的保障机制之一；研究假设4：法律法规政策制度是低碳经济发展机制的保障机制之一。并从广东南沙(国家级开发新区)科技研发平台建设、法律法规政策制度-结构性减税效果两个方面进行实证检验。实证分析表明,低碳经济发展的支撑保障主要来自两个方面：一是技术创新平台的支撑,技术创新平台作用越大,其技术创新能力也越强。二是法律法规政策的支撑。一般来讲,政府的调节和引导作用越大,其对技术平台和基础设施建设的作用也越大。而税收优惠政策主要对研发经费支出产生正向作用,因为它可以进行税前抵扣。税收优惠对基础设施建设的影响,主要体现在促进固定资产投资上。
研究表明：法律法规政策与技术创新平台对低碳经济发展的保障作用是相辅相成的关系。
第五章为进行低碳经济发展的引导机制系统基模分析,作如下研究假设：研究假设5：产业结构调整升级是低碳经济发展机制的引导机制之一；研究假设6：低碳产业园区也是低碳经济发展机制的引导机制之一。并从广东产业结构调整升级：经济增长与产业结构的互动关系,以及构建低碳产业园区两个方面进行实证检验。实证分析表明,广东低碳经济发展的引导机制主要来自两个方面：一是产业结构升级的引导。广东目前第三产业对GDP的贡献率已经与第二产业贡献率不相上下,产业结构呈现高级化(升级调整)。服务业贡献率的提高和增长速度的加快,标志着广东初步进入低碳经济发展的新模式。二是大力发展低碳工业园区。在产业结构调整升级的过程中,应高度重视可再生能源技术和应用先进节能技术,低碳工业园区可以从可再生能源占能耗比例和提高能源效率两个方面着手,减少碳排放,从而实现低碳经济。
第六章构建了广东低碳经济发展机制系统仿真模型,是本文的重要理论研究贡献。首先,将第三、四、五章的系统基模分析进行集成,设计广东低碳经济发展机制系统仿真模型流图,在仿真图中建立了人口总量、第一、二、三次产业增加值以及专利授权量五个流位变量,整个流率流位仿真模型共建立了41个方程；其次,对上述低碳经济发展机制系统仿真模型进行测试,通过直观检验与量纲检验和仿真的拟合值检验,并对系统仿真结果进行分析,得到广东低碳经济发展机制系统政策实验与方案选择。通过低碳经济发展机制系统仿真模型的构建,一方面将丰富和发展低碳经济的基础理论；另一方面,该模型的构建,将成为政府制定相关政策的理论依据。
第七章对本文的研究发现进行归纳总结、展望,并指出进一步研究的方向。
Based on system dynamics theory, the integrated use of systems archetypes analysis, gray correlation analysis, factor analysis, DEA analysis, impulse response function analysis, variance decomposition analysis, and VAR model (vector auto regression model Vector Auto-Regression; VAR), VECM model (VECM), Douglas production function model and other methods and models for a lot of empirical analysis and demonstration, testing the conclusions of previous empirical studies (six empirical research hypothesis), found a low-carbon economic development dynamic mechanism, security mechanism and guiding mechanism of three major mechanisms, run Vensim PLE5.7a system simulation software for the development of low-carbon economy three major mechanisms for system simulation, established a total of41equations, in which the flow rate equation5, the stream bit equation5, the auxiliary equation28, the constant equation3, the simulation equations running time from1998to2015. Model through validation, intuitive inspection, dimensional inspection and test fitted values, the average error rate of3.09%, the degree of model fit better scientific simulation models, reliability and validity have passed the test. Obtain the following new study found that:
(1) When the low-carbon industrial park on the impact factor of the secondary industry, technological innovation platform impact factor, impact factor preferential tax policies regulating these three exogenous variables are1,1998to201517years in Guangdong secondary industry increased value and the ratio of tertiary industry trends are:1998-2001three-year periods, the secondary industry and tertiary industry ratio declining in2001reached its lowest point.2001to2007, the secondary industry and tertiary industry ratio began to rise, and this is mainly because the secondary industry tertiary industry has not been exceeded, and the second industry itself through high-tech transformation, so that the internal structure optimization caused.2007after2015is showing a downward trend, suggesting that the industrial structure is dominated by the second stage to the third stage of the main changes in the industrial structure was high-class trend.
(2) When the low-carbon industrial park on the impact factor of the secondary industry, technological innovation platform impact factor, impact factor preferential tax policies regulating these three exogenous variables are set to1,From1998to201517years in Guangdong each Yuan GDP energy consumption trends are:Each Yuan GDP energy consumption can be divided into two periods, a period is from1998to2005, GDP energy consumption during this period no clear trend, but fluctuated. This may be because of low-carbon economic development mechanisms did not play its due role in making. After2005each Yuan GDP showed a declining trend, indicating a low-carbon economic development mechanisms play a role.
(3)1998-2015in Guangdong's GDP, carbon emissions trends are:Before2005, the relationship between the two less obvious.2005to2015the total GDP and carbon emissions trends both basically the same uptrend, but tends to narrow the distance between the two. This indicates that the GDP growth and the growth in carbon emissions relative decoupling presents a trend, which is conducive to the development of low-carbon economy.
(4) When the low-carbon industrial park on the impact factor of the secondary industry, technological innovation platform impact factor, impact factor preferential tax policies regulating these three exogenous variables value of1.2was observed in the total GDP of Guangdong1998-2015, each Yuan GDP energy consumption, carbon emissions, two or three industrial added value ratio diagram it with Figure6.2, Figure6.3, Figure6.4comparative analysis can be found in regulation when these three exogenous variables active, each Yuan GDP even less energy consumption, GDP and total carbon emissions, the distance between the two closer, secondary industry and tertiary industry ratios Smaller, and the added value and tertiary production curve more smoothed. Therefore, the targeted use of "low-carbon industrial park on the impact factor of the secondary industry, technological innovation platform impact factor, and impact factor tax incentives" This three exogenous variables control the development of relevant policy mechanisms that will be conducive to a low-carbon economic development.
The Chapter1sets out the research background and significance of research status, the main content and basic framework, research methods, technical routes and other issues, and then in the chapter2of the system dynamics and system-based model for introduced on the basis of the mechanism for the development of low-carbon economy system configuration analysis and theoretical framework to build. Carbon economic development mechanisms, from a technical perspective, there are mechanisms for low-carbon energy technology development, ecological environment compensation mechanism, low-carbon product certification systems, carbon emissions constraint mechanism; From the perspective of system dynamics, the main dynamic mechanism, security mechanism and guide mechanism three main subsystems, the three mechanisms through synergistic effect, constitutes a low-carbon economy development mechanism system. Then, introduced the system dynamics and systems archetypes, etc., for the third, fourth, fifth and sixth chapters do theoretical groundwork. This study focuses on the dynamic mechanism of low-carbon economy, supporting the protection mechanism and guide mechanism of action of three major subsystems.
The Chapter3creative in order to build a low-carbon economy dynamic mechanism of systems archetypes, conclusions based on empirical studies and theoretical assumptions a theoretical hypothesis2, and Guangdong, for example, from energy consumption and carbon emissions intensity structure and technological innovation ability of two aspects of the empirical analysis and testing hypotheses of authenticity. Empirical analysis shows that the total energy consumption mainly from two aspects:First, with the total population on the population, the more energy consumed per day is also more. Second, with the first, second and third industry output related. In general, the first, second and tertiary industries output value, the greater the energy consumption is also more. The ability of technological innovation and total energy consumption first, second and tertiary industries role is different. Technological innovation capability is stronger, the higher the efficiency of energy use, and the corresponding total energy consumption can be reduced. The technological innovation capability is stronger, its first, second and tertiary industries increased output is a promoting effect. Technological innovation is mainly affected by the strength of the number of R&D personnel and R&D expenditures two factors. The R&D expenditure it is affected by the impact of the total GDP. In general, the stronger the economy (GDP total) for R&D expenditures is also more.
The relationship between dynamic mechanisms:technological innovation capability is stronger, the higher the efficiency of energy use. and the corresponding total energy consumption can be reduced. Increase in total energy consumption will also increase carbon emissions, and carbon emissions will lead to an increase in demand for the increase in technological innovation capability and technological innovation capacity needs increase, will make a corresponding increase technological innovation capability and technological innovation capability enhancements will reduce total energy consumption. In this negative feedback loop in the technological innovation capability is directly affecting energy consumption factors
The Chapter4is supporting the development of low-carbon economy safeguard mechanism analysis systems archetypes, make the following hypothesis:Hypothesis3:R&D platform for building low-carbon economic development mechanisms supporting protection mechanisms; Hypothesis4:Laws and regulations policies and systems that support low-carbon economic development mechanisms safeguard mechanisms. And from the Guangdong Nansha (National Development District) R&D platform, laws and regulations policies and systems structural tax effects of two aspects of empirical testing. Empirical analysis shows that support the development of low-carbon economy protection mainly from two aspects:First, technological innovation platform support, the greater the role of technological innovation platform and its technological innovation ability is stronger. Second, laws and regulations, policies support. In general, the government's role in regulating and guiding the greater its technology platform and infrastructure role is also greater. The major tax incentives for R&D expenditures have positive effect because it can be tax deductible. Tax incentives for the construction of infrastructure, mainly reflected in the promotion of investment in fixed assets.
Studies show that:Laws and regulations and policies and technological innovation platform for the protection of low-carbon economic development role is complementary relationship.
The Chapter5of the guidance for the development of low-carbon economy mechanism analysis systems archetypes for the following research hypothesis:Hypothesis5:industrial restructuring and upgrading low-carbon economy is one of the mechanisms to guide development mechanism; Hypothesis6:low carbon industrial park development of low-carbon economy is one of the mechanisms guiding mechanism. And from the Guangdong industrial restructuring and upgrading:Economic growth and industrial structure interaction, and building a low-carbon industrial park two aspects of empirical testing. Empirical analysis shows that the development of low-carbon economy in Guangdong boot mechanism mainly from two aspects:First, upgrade the industrial structure of the boot. Guangdong is currently tertiary industry's contribution to GDP ratio has been comparable with the contribution rate of the secondary industry, industrial structure showing high grade (upgrading and adjustment). Service sector growth accelerates and the contribution rate increase marked the beginning of economic growth in Guangdong to services from leading industry-led post-industrial era, also marks the development of low-carbon economy in Guangdong initially entered a new model. Second is to develop a low-carbon industrial park. In the industrial structure tend to be reasonable in the process, the application of low-carbon energy technology industrial park attention and renewable energy technologies, from energy efficiency and renewable energy consumption accounted for the proportion of two aspects, reduce carbon emissions in order to achieve a low-carbon economy.
The Chapter6build low-carbon economy of Guangdong Development Mechanism system simulation model, this paper is an important contribution to theoretical research. First, the chapter to Chapter3, Chapter4, Chapter5analyzes integrate systems archetypes, And to design low-carbon economy of Guangdong Development Mechanism system simulation model flow diagram, added the total population of the first, second and third industrial added value and patents granted five-bit variable to the simulation of flow diagram, established41equations in the Flow rate in the entire bit stream simulation model; Secondly, the low-carbon economy development mechanism system simulation model for testing, inspection and dimensional inspection through intuitive fitted values of test and simulation, and analysis of simulation results, the Guangdong Development Mechanism carbon economy system policy experiments and programs selection. Carbon economic development mechanisms through system simulation model to build, on the one hand and the development of low-carbon economy will enrich the basic theory; the other hand, the model is constructed, will become the Government to formulate relevant policies theory.
The Chapter7are summarized and discussed, summarized the main findings of this study are discussed the problems and shortcomings, pointed out the perfect present study ways and means.
(1)当低碳工业园区对第二产业增加值的影响因子、技术创新平台影响因子、税收优惠政策影响因子这三个外生调控变量都为1时,1998年到2015年17年间广东第二产业增加值与第三产业增加值比值的变化趋势是：1998年至2001年这三年时间内,第二产业增加值与第三产业增加值的比值不断下降,2001年达到最低点。2001年到2007年第二产业增加值与第三产业增加值的比值开始不断上升,这主要是因为第三产业尚未超过第二产业,而第二产业自身通过高新技术改造,使内部结构不断优化造成的。2007年之后2015年则呈现不断下降的趋势,这表明产业结构正由第二产为主向第三产为主转变,产业结构呈高级化趋势。
(2)当低碳工业园区对第二产业增加值的影响因子、技术创新平台影响因子、税收优惠政策影响因子这三个外生调控变量都为1时,1998年到2015年17年间广东万元GDP能耗的变化趋势是：万元GDP能耗可分两段时期,一段是1998年至2005年,这段时期GDP能耗没有明显的趋势,而是呈现波动状态。这可能是因为低碳经济发展机制没有发挥其应有的作用造成的。2005年以后万元GDP呈现逐年下降的趋势,说明低碳经济发展机制起到一定的作用。
(3)1998-2015年广东GDP总量、碳排放量变化趋势是：在2005年之前,两者之间的关系不太明显。2005年至2015年GDP总量与碳排放量两者的变化趋·势基本相同,都呈上升趋势,而且两者之间的距离趋于缩小。这表明2005年以来,G-DP的增长与碳排放量的增长呈现一个相对脱钩的趋势,这有利于低碳经济的发展。
(4)当低碳工业园区对第二产业增加值的影响因子、技术创新平台影响因子、税收优惠政策影响因子这三个外生调控变量都取值为1.2时,观察广东1998-2015年GDP总量、万元GDP能耗、碳排放量、第二、第三产业增加值比值示意图,把它与图6.2、图6.3、图6.4进行对比分析,可发现当这三个外生调控变量起作用时,万元GDP能耗更少了,GDP总量与碳排放量两者之间的距离也更近了,第二产业增加值与第三产业增加值的比值更小了、且第二、三产业增加值曲线更加平滑了。因此,针对性地运用“低碳工业园区对第二产业增加值的影响因子、技术创新平台影响因子、税收优惠政策影响因子”这三个外生调控变量制定相关政策机制,将有利促进低碳经济发展。
第一章首先阐明了研究背景及其意义、国内外研究现状、研究的主要内容及基本框架、研究方法、技术路线等问题,然后第二章在对广东低碳经济发展现状和碳排放历史数据进行描述性统计分析的基础上,对低碳经济发展机制的系统构成进行分析,提出研究假设和理论框架构建。低碳经济发展机制,从技术层面来说,有低碳能源技术开发机制、生态环境补偿机制、低碳产品认证体系、碳排放约束机制；从系统动力学的角度看,主要有动力机制、保障机制和引导机制等三个主要子系统,三大机制通过协同作用,构成了低碳经济发展机制系统。接着,介绍了系统动力学原理和系统基模等内容,为第三、四、五和第六章做理论铺垫。本章研究的重点是低碳经济发展的动力机制、保障机制和引导机制等三个主要子系统的作用机理。
第三章为了从理论上创造性地构建低碳经济发展动力机制的系统基模,以广东为例进行实证,借以检验根据经验研究结论提出的理论假设1和理论假设2。选择从能源消费结构和科技创新能力两个方面进行实证分析和检验该理论假设的真伪。实证分析表明,能源消费总量主要来自于两个方面：一是与人口总量有关,人口越多,每天消费的能源也越多。二是与第一、二、三产业的产值有关。一般来讲,第一、二、三产业的产值越大,其消耗的能源也越多。而技术创新能力对能源消费总量和第一、二、三产业的作用是不同的。技术创新能力越强,能源使用效率越高,相应的可降低能源消费总量。而技术创新能力越强,其对第一、二、三产业产值的增加是具有促进作用的。技术创新能力强弱主要受R&D人员数和R&D经费支出两个因素的影响。而R&D经费支出它受GDP总量的影响。一般来说,经济越强(GDP总量),用于R&D经费支出也就越多。
研究表明：技术创新能力越强,能源使用效率越高,相应的可降低能源消费总量。能源消费总量的增加会使碳排放量也相应增加,而碳排放量的增加会促使对技术创新能力需求的增加,技术创新能力需求的增加,会使技术创新能力也相应增强,技术创新能力的增强会使能源消费总量减少。在负反馈环中技术创新能力是影响能源消费总量的直接因素。
第四章为进行低碳经济发展的保障机制系统基模分析,检验如下研究假设：研究假设3：科技研发平台建设是低碳经济发展机制的保障机制之一；研究假设4：法律法规政策制度是低碳经济发展机制的保障机制之一。并从广东南沙(国家级开发新区)科技研发平台建设、法律法规政策制度-结构性减税效果两个方面进行实证检验。实证分析表明,低碳经济发展的支撑保障主要来自两个方面：一是技术创新平台的支撑,技术创新平台作用越大,其技术创新能力也越强。二是法律法规政策的支撑。一般来讲,政府的调节和引导作用越大,其对技术平台和基础设施建设的作用也越大。而税收优惠政策主要对研发经费支出产生正向作用,因为它可以进行税前抵扣。税收优惠对基础设施建设的影响,主要体现在促进固定资产投资上。
研究表明：法律法规政策与技术创新平台对低碳经济发展的保障作用是相辅相成的关系。
第五章为进行低碳经济发展的引导机制系统基模分析,作如下研究假设：研究假设5：产业结构调整升级是低碳经济发展机制的引导机制之一；研究假设6：低碳产业园区也是低碳经济发展机制的引导机制之一。并从广东产业结构调整升级：经济增长与产业结构的互动关系,以及构建低碳产业园区两个方面进行实证检验。实证分析表明,广东低碳经济发展的引导机制主要来自两个方面：一是产业结构升级的引导。广东目前第三产业对GDP的贡献率已经与第二产业贡献率不相上下,产业结构呈现高级化(升级调整)。服务业贡献率的提高和增长速度的加快,标志着广东初步进入低碳经济发展的新模式。二是大力发展低碳工业园区。在产业结构调整升级的过程中,应高度重视可再生能源技术和应用先进节能技术,低碳工业园区可以从可再生能源占能耗比例和提高能源效率两个方面着手,减少碳排放,从而实现低碳经济。
第六章构建了广东低碳经济发展机制系统仿真模型,是本文的重要理论研究贡献。首先,将第三、四、五章的系统基模分析进行集成,设计广东低碳经济发展机制系统仿真模型流图,在仿真图中建立了人口总量、第一、二、三次产业增加值以及专利授权量五个流位变量,整个流率流位仿真模型共建立了41个方程；其次,对上述低碳经济发展机制系统仿真模型进行测试,通过直观检验与量纲检验和仿真的拟合值检验,并对系统仿真结果进行分析,得到广东低碳经济发展机制系统政策实验与方案选择。通过低碳经济发展机制系统仿真模型的构建,一方面将丰富和发展低碳经济的基础理论；另一方面,该模型的构建,将成为政府制定相关政策的理论依据。
第七章对本文的研究发现进行归纳总结、展望,并指出进一步研究的方向。
Based on system dynamics theory, the integrated use of systems archetypes analysis, gray correlation analysis, factor analysis, DEA analysis, impulse response function analysis, variance decomposition analysis, and VAR model (vector auto regression model Vector Auto-Regression; VAR), VECM model (VECM), Douglas production function model and other methods and models for a lot of empirical analysis and demonstration, testing the conclusions of previous empirical studies (six empirical research hypothesis), found a low-carbon economic development dynamic mechanism, security mechanism and guiding mechanism of three major mechanisms, run Vensim PLE5.7a system simulation software for the development of low-carbon economy three major mechanisms for system simulation, established a total of41equations, in which the flow rate equation5, the stream bit equation5, the auxiliary equation28, the constant equation3, the simulation equations running time from1998to2015. Model through validation, intuitive inspection, dimensional inspection and test fitted values, the average error rate of3.09%, the degree of model fit better scientific simulation models, reliability and validity have passed the test. Obtain the following new study found that:
(1) When the low-carbon industrial park on the impact factor of the secondary industry, technological innovation platform impact factor, impact factor preferential tax policies regulating these three exogenous variables are1,1998to201517years in Guangdong secondary industry increased value and the ratio of tertiary industry trends are:1998-2001three-year periods, the secondary industry and tertiary industry ratio declining in2001reached its lowest point.2001to2007, the secondary industry and tertiary industry ratio began to rise, and this is mainly because the secondary industry tertiary industry has not been exceeded, and the second industry itself through high-tech transformation, so that the internal structure optimization caused.2007after2015is showing a downward trend, suggesting that the industrial structure is dominated by the second stage to the third stage of the main changes in the industrial structure was high-class trend.
(2) When the low-carbon industrial park on the impact factor of the secondary industry, technological innovation platform impact factor, impact factor preferential tax policies regulating these three exogenous variables are set to1,From1998to201517years in Guangdong each Yuan GDP energy consumption trends are:Each Yuan GDP energy consumption can be divided into two periods, a period is from1998to2005, GDP energy consumption during this period no clear trend, but fluctuated. This may be because of low-carbon economic development mechanisms did not play its due role in making. After2005each Yuan GDP showed a declining trend, indicating a low-carbon economic development mechanisms play a role.
(3)1998-2015in Guangdong's GDP, carbon emissions trends are:Before2005, the relationship between the two less obvious.2005to2015the total GDP and carbon emissions trends both basically the same uptrend, but tends to narrow the distance between the two. This indicates that the GDP growth and the growth in carbon emissions relative decoupling presents a trend, which is conducive to the development of low-carbon economy.
(4) When the low-carbon industrial park on the impact factor of the secondary industry, technological innovation platform impact factor, impact factor preferential tax policies regulating these three exogenous variables value of1.2was observed in the total GDP of Guangdong1998-2015, each Yuan GDP energy consumption, carbon emissions, two or three industrial added value ratio diagram it with Figure6.2, Figure6.3, Figure6.4comparative analysis can be found in regulation when these three exogenous variables active, each Yuan GDP even less energy consumption, GDP and total carbon emissions, the distance between the two closer, secondary industry and tertiary industry ratios Smaller, and the added value and tertiary production curve more smoothed. Therefore, the targeted use of "low-carbon industrial park on the impact factor of the secondary industry, technological innovation platform impact factor, and impact factor tax incentives" This three exogenous variables control the development of relevant policy mechanisms that will be conducive to a low-carbon economic development.
The Chapter1sets out the research background and significance of research status, the main content and basic framework, research methods, technical routes and other issues, and then in the chapter2of the system dynamics and system-based model for introduced on the basis of the mechanism for the development of low-carbon economy system configuration analysis and theoretical framework to build. Carbon economic development mechanisms, from a technical perspective, there are mechanisms for low-carbon energy technology development, ecological environment compensation mechanism, low-carbon product certification systems, carbon emissions constraint mechanism; From the perspective of system dynamics, the main dynamic mechanism, security mechanism and guide mechanism three main subsystems, the three mechanisms through synergistic effect, constitutes a low-carbon economy development mechanism system. Then, introduced the system dynamics and systems archetypes, etc., for the third, fourth, fifth and sixth chapters do theoretical groundwork. This study focuses on the dynamic mechanism of low-carbon economy, supporting the protection mechanism and guide mechanism of action of three major subsystems.
The Chapter3creative in order to build a low-carbon economy dynamic mechanism of systems archetypes, conclusions based on empirical studies and theoretical assumptions a theoretical hypothesis2, and Guangdong, for example, from energy consumption and carbon emissions intensity structure and technological innovation ability of two aspects of the empirical analysis and testing hypotheses of authenticity. Empirical analysis shows that the total energy consumption mainly from two aspects:First, with the total population on the population, the more energy consumed per day is also more. Second, with the first, second and third industry output related. In general, the first, second and tertiary industries output value, the greater the energy consumption is also more. The ability of technological innovation and total energy consumption first, second and tertiary industries role is different. Technological innovation capability is stronger, the higher the efficiency of energy use, and the corresponding total energy consumption can be reduced. The technological innovation capability is stronger, its first, second and tertiary industries increased output is a promoting effect. Technological innovation is mainly affected by the strength of the number of R&D personnel and R&D expenditures two factors. The R&D expenditure it is affected by the impact of the total GDP. In general, the stronger the economy (GDP total) for R&D expenditures is also more.
The relationship between dynamic mechanisms:technological innovation capability is stronger, the higher the efficiency of energy use. and the corresponding total energy consumption can be reduced. Increase in total energy consumption will also increase carbon emissions, and carbon emissions will lead to an increase in demand for the increase in technological innovation capability and technological innovation capacity needs increase, will make a corresponding increase technological innovation capability and technological innovation capability enhancements will reduce total energy consumption. In this negative feedback loop in the technological innovation capability is directly affecting energy consumption factors
The Chapter4is supporting the development of low-carbon economy safeguard mechanism analysis systems archetypes, make the following hypothesis:Hypothesis3:R&D platform for building low-carbon economic development mechanisms supporting protection mechanisms; Hypothesis4:Laws and regulations policies and systems that support low-carbon economic development mechanisms safeguard mechanisms. And from the Guangdong Nansha (National Development District) R&D platform, laws and regulations policies and systems structural tax effects of two aspects of empirical testing. Empirical analysis shows that support the development of low-carbon economy protection mainly from two aspects:First, technological innovation platform support, the greater the role of technological innovation platform and its technological innovation ability is stronger. Second, laws and regulations, policies support. In general, the government's role in regulating and guiding the greater its technology platform and infrastructure role is also greater. The major tax incentives for R&D expenditures have positive effect because it can be tax deductible. Tax incentives for the construction of infrastructure, mainly reflected in the promotion of investment in fixed assets.
Studies show that:Laws and regulations and policies and technological innovation platform for the protection of low-carbon economic development role is complementary relationship.
The Chapter5of the guidance for the development of low-carbon economy mechanism analysis systems archetypes for the following research hypothesis:Hypothesis5:industrial restructuring and upgrading low-carbon economy is one of the mechanisms to guide development mechanism; Hypothesis6:low carbon industrial park development of low-carbon economy is one of the mechanisms guiding mechanism. And from the Guangdong industrial restructuring and upgrading:Economic growth and industrial structure interaction, and building a low-carbon industrial park two aspects of empirical testing. Empirical analysis shows that the development of low-carbon economy in Guangdong boot mechanism mainly from two aspects:First, upgrade the industrial structure of the boot. Guangdong is currently tertiary industry's contribution to GDP ratio has been comparable with the contribution rate of the secondary industry, industrial structure showing high grade (upgrading and adjustment). Service sector growth accelerates and the contribution rate increase marked the beginning of economic growth in Guangdong to services from leading industry-led post-industrial era, also marks the development of low-carbon economy in Guangdong initially entered a new model. Second is to develop a low-carbon industrial park. In the industrial structure tend to be reasonable in the process, the application of low-carbon energy technology industrial park attention and renewable energy technologies, from energy efficiency and renewable energy consumption accounted for the proportion of two aspects, reduce carbon emissions in order to achieve a low-carbon economy.
The Chapter6build low-carbon economy of Guangdong Development Mechanism system simulation model, this paper is an important contribution to theoretical research. First, the chapter to Chapter3, Chapter4, Chapter5analyzes integrate systems archetypes, And to design low-carbon economy of Guangdong Development Mechanism system simulation model flow diagram, added the total population of the first, second and third industrial added value and patents granted five-bit variable to the simulation of flow diagram, established41equations in the Flow rate in the entire bit stream simulation model; Secondly, the low-carbon economy development mechanism system simulation model for testing, inspection and dimensional inspection through intuitive fitted values of test and simulation, and analysis of simulation results, the Guangdong Development Mechanism carbon economy system policy experiments and programs selection. Carbon economic development mechanisms through system simulation model to build, on the one hand and the development of low-carbon economy will enrich the basic theory; the other hand, the model is constructed, will become the Government to formulate relevant policies theory.
The Chapter7are summarized and discussed, summarized the main findings of this study are discussed the problems and shortcomings, pointed out the perfect present study ways and means.
引文
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