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中国能源生产与消费外部性问题研究
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摘要
随着中国经济的快速发展和国际地位的提升,中国的能源生产和消费问题日益引起世界各国的重视。作为世界第一大温室气体排放国,中国能源生产和消费过程中所产生的外部不经济问题也成为举足轻重的问题,并且在全球气候变化的背景下,中国承受着来自国际社会巨大的减排压力。能源生产和消费格局,以及能源生产与消费过程中所产生的负外部性问题,是关乎我国能源安全、环境容量、经济发展和国际地位的重要问题。
     本文以我国能源生产消费过程中产生的外部性为研究对象,通过分析我国能源结构、研究我国能源生产消费过程中产生的外部性,运用数学模型和SPSS统计软件对我国3E综合系统协调性进行计算。通过实证研究,计算我国山西省和内蒙古自治区的能源消费碳排放量和3E系统协调性,分析和总结能源生产地区的经验和教训。在一系列定性研究、定量研究的基础上,分析我国能源生产消费外部性问题现状,并进一步提出,减少能源生产、消费过程中的外部不经济,需要从两方面同时入手:一方面从源头抓起,尽量避免和减少负外部性的产生,另一方面,要将无法避免的负外部性纳入企业成本核算体系,既将外部性内部化。
With the rapid economic development and enhancement of the international status of China, the issue of energy production and consumption in China is increasingly drawing the attention of each country in the world. As the largest country in the aspect of greenhouse gases emission, the external diseconomy problem emerged in energy production and consumption process is becoming significant, and under the background of global climate changes, China is under the pressure of emission reduction from the international society. Energy production and consumption pattern, as well as the negative externality problem in energy production and consumption, is an important issue that relates to energy safety, environment capacity, economic development and international status of China.
     As one of the manufacturing bases of the world, the majority of imports are high value-added products and service, and most of exports are ordinary manufacturing products. The energy consumption in the imported commodities and exported commodities of the same value varies significantly, thus the international transfer due to energy consumption aggravates the energy consumption in the industrial development of China. Generally speaking, China has not abandoned the extensive economic growth mode featured by high economic growth, high energy consumption and high environmental pollution.
     With the rapid development of economy, the energy production and consumption in China grows year by year. Seen from statistics, from 2000 to 2007, the total production and consumption of primary energy in China shows the increasing tendency year by year, and at the same time, the gap between total energy consumption and total energy production also shows the increasing tendency year by year, and the external dependency of energy consumption increases.
     The BP world energy statistics published in 2009 shows that: in the end of 2008, the total oil reserve in China is 2.1 billion tons, making up 1.2% of the total reserve in the world, and the reserve output ratio is 11.1, about 26.43% of the reserve output ratio in the world; the total reserve of natural gas in China is 2460 billion cubic meters, making up 1.3% of the total natural gas reserve in the world, and the reserve output ratio is 32.3, about 53.48% of the world reserve output ratio; the total coal reserve in China is 114.5 billion tons, making up 13.9% of the total coal reserve in the world, and the reserve output ratio is 41, about 33.61% of the world reserve output ratio.
     China has abundant energy resources, but at the same time, it is the main oil importer in the world. With the increase of total net oil import year by year, till 2004, the net oil import of China possesses the third position in the world, and will grow further on the basis of it. China is one of the main coal importers in the world, and the same with Australia and Indonesia, the total net coal import has always been negative. From 2002 to 2006, the energy supply per capita in China has always been lower than the world average level, and far lower than that in Canada, America and Sweden etc. countries; as for China itself, the energy supply per capita in China Taipei and Hongkong are higher than that in China mainland; seen from the development and changing rules, the per capita energy supply in China shows an overall upward and slow tendency.
     China is an important energy producing country in the world, also a big energy consumption country. The energy production and consumption in China are mainly coal, and seen from the total of production and consumption, the energy production and consumption in China shows a year-by-year increasing tendency. From the aspect of energy utilization efficiency, with the advancement of technology and development of society, the energy consumption per 10,000 yuan GDP decreases year by year, and the overall utilization efficiency of energy increases continuously.
     In the process of energy exploitation, transport, processing and using, negative externality will emerge in many manners and ways, and energy production and consumption are the main factors that influence the air environment. In the process of coal exploitation, thermal power generation and oil refining, large amount of waste gas and dust will be produced, which are the main air pollutants. In China, the energy consumption structure depending on coal is the main reason that causes the decrease of air quality. For a long term, the coal consumed in thermal power plant makes up over 50% of the total consumed coal, thus production of power energy becomes one of the main reasons that influence air quality.
     In energy exploitation process, great inestimable damage will be done to water resource. The exploitation of deep layer energy resource changes the primitive geological structure of underground water system, and changes the original supply and drainage relationship of underground water. Part of surface flow, base flow and undercurrent becomes mine water, thus causing drying up of spring water, and discontinuous flow of rivers. Exploitation of coal energy changes the structure of natural water reserve of underground water, and causing pollution to water source through many means. The large-scale exploitation of energy resource such as coal will cause the damage to hydrological and geological structure, especially large area of underground mined-out space causes the collapse of surface, which greatly decreases the underground water level, causes grain yield reduction, difficulty in water fetching, difficulty in the growth of all kinds of forests, woods and undergrowth, etc. series of problems, thus causing the deterioration of the whole ecological system.
     The exploitation of energy resource has serious negative impact on land occupation and pollution, and among all kinds of energy types, the land pollution caused by coal mining is the most prominent. In energy production process, the exploitation of resource will discharge all kinds of solid and liquid wastes and cause pollution to soil. After the energy is exploited from underground, the change of geological structure can also cause surface sinking and cracking etc. problems within a certain range. After oil and coal etc. energy resources are exploited, it will certainly damage the original mechanical equilibrium inside the rock body of the mining area, and the rock layer will displace or fission, and finally surface subsidence, mountain craze, collapse, landslide and debris flow etc. geological disasters will appear. This kind of damage in energy production process will also influence the normal life of people on the surface of mining area.
     The occupational disease and safety accidents in energy exploitation process of China can not be ignored, and the situation is still far from being satisfactory, which is mainly embodied in that big accidents happen one after another in the production process of coal energy manufacturing companies, the infrastructure in safety production is weak, and the awareness for safety production and occupational disease, and strength of prevention and control is not enough. Accidents in coal mine not only impose great threat to the life safety of mine workers, but also cause vast economic loss and important social impact. The problem of safety in production is an important issue in coal resource exploitation process that allows no ignorance.
     The energy consumption in current stage of China is mainly coal, and 80% coal consumption is used for burning directly. According to the coal burning mode in current stage of China, coal can not realize full burning and utilization, and the wastes caused in low level coal utilization mode form the main sources of sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, and smoke. Moreover, in a long time of the future, air pollution due to coal combustion will be the main type of air pollution in China.
     Except for environmental pollution, the consumption of energy will also impose threat to the life safety and mental health of people. Sulfur dioxide has irritant action to the respiratory organ and eye mask, and breathing in high intensity sulfur dioxide can cause laryngeal edema and bronchitis. Breathing in sulfur dioxide for a long term will cause chronic poisoning, which not only aggravates the respiratory disease, but also causes damage to the liver, kidney and heart of people. If people live in the polluted air containing large amount of fine particles for a long time, the occurrence rate and death rate of lung cancer will increase, and at the same time, the occurrence rate of other heart diseases will simultaneously increase.
     Emission from petrol chemistry, coal burning and end gas of vehicles is the main source of heavy metal pollution in air. In the burning process of fossil fuels, the metals are released to the air in the form of oxide or gaseous state. They hang on the micro particles in air, and become heavy metal pollutant. These metal and oxides enter the lung of people and animals through breathing, and cause great threat to the health of the human body and animals, even causing lethal damage. For example, lead pollution in heavy metal is an important reason for causing the high level of lead content in pre-school children. And lead poisoning will bring about unfavorable impact on the metal development, physique growth and memory ability of children.
     In the energy consumption process, an easily ignored pollutant will be brought about, that is, noise pollution. The damage of noise pollution to human body is indirect and long-term, with time accumulation process. It is just due to this feature of noise pollution that its harmfulness does not draw the attention of people. The cities of China have the features of concentrated habitation of population, imperfect city infrastructure, and unreasonable urban planning etc. And in recent years, with the rapid economic development, the city scale expands continuously, and the transport network of cities continuously increases. The continuous growth of highway, new transport lines in cities, subway, and airport etc. transport infrastructure aggravates the day-by-day noise pollution in China, and the noise pollution in energy consumption process and its harmfulness can not be ignored.
     Of the currently practiced policies in China, the issues relating to externality of energy production mainly include collection system of drainage charges, emissions trading system etc. Seen from the development condition in current stage, although there are many problems and insufficiencies in the collection system of drainage charges in its long-term development of it, but generally speaking, it plays an important role for the environmental protection work of China, and it being improved and perfected. The emissions trading system in China is still in the preliminary stage of development, and the range of trial is expanding gradually. The understanding of the social masses about emissions trading system also increases. However, generally speaking, this trading is still in the exploratory stage, and there are many objective difficulties.
     Through principal component analysis, we analyze the coordination of 3E integrated system. The so-called 3E coordination analysis refers to analysis of the coordination of energy, environment and economy. This paper adopts quantitative analysis to discuss the coupling relationship of 3E system under the current economic development and energy consumption level of China, and analyze the coordination degree. Through establishing function, entering original data and computational model, the results show that: in 2004 and 2005, the 3E integrated system in China is relatively not coordinated; in 2003, 2006, and 2007, the 3E integrated system shows weak coordination; in 2008, it reached preliminary coordination.
     Through the same method, we can calculate the coordination degree of the 3E integrated system in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia two regions, and the results show: during 2004-2008, the coordination change curve of 3E integrated system of Shanxi Province falls in the uncoordinated area where index is smaller than 0.3; except for the year 2007, the coordination index of the 3E system of Inner Mongolia is bigger than 0.5, falling in the range of preliminary coordination area. The other years are the same with that in Shanxi Province, falling in the uncoordinated area of smaller than 0.3. This means that Shanxi and Inner Mongolia have many differences in energy, environment and economic development, but share some similarities in the coordination of 3E integrated system. The coordination of 3E system in the two areas pressingly needs enhancement.
     Using carbon emission index in energy consumption to calculate the carbon emissions in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia two regions, we can visually understand the externality degree of energy consumption in the two regions, and the results show: during 2004-2008, the carbon emissions in energy consumption in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia show year-by-year increasing changes, and the total carbon emission in energy consumption in Inner Mongolia is bigger than that of Shanxi Province. The growth speed of total carbon emission in energy consumption in Inner Mongolia is bigger than that of Shanxi, and the gap between the carbon emissions of the two regions gradually expands. The per capita carbon emissions in energy consumption in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia increases year by year, but the growth in Shanxi Province is relatively steady, and the growth speed in Inner Mongolia is relatively rapid.
     Reducing external diseconomy in energy production and consumption process should be started from two aspects. First, we should start from source, try to avoid and reduce the occurrence of negative externality; second, we should include the unavoidable negative externality into the cost calculation system, that is, internalize the externality. In reducing the external diseconomy in energy production and consumption process, we should firstly control it from the total pollution to reduce the occurrence amount of external diseconomy, reduce emissions of pollutants from source, and realize the protection of ecological environment. Reducing the produced amount of external diseconomy is the most effective and direct means for reducing pollution and protecting the environment.
     The energy production areas in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia should summary experiences and lessons in time, do well the regional development preparation after the end of energy exploitation cycle in advance, do reasonable layout from the beginning, prepare for the industrial transformation in other regions, learn the lessons of resource-exhausted regions, and avoid the long-standing bad habit in pursuing short-term interest and exhaustion of resources in the future. Formulate long-term planning according to the specific situation in each region based on the regional position, climate, economic development condition, and cultural customs etc. in each region. Depending on the resource advantage, develop economy; cultivate substitute industry in the rapid development of energy industry, prepare for the industrial transformation in the region, and finally realize the sustainable development in the region.
     The measures of directly controlling the produced amount of externality in energy production and consumption mainly include energy saving, emission reduction, and enhancing the use efficiency of resources etc. The specific measures include: first, formulate different energy saving and emission reduction planning based on different departments and types of energy; second, many kinds of energy saving measures can be used at the same time, and the measures of energy saving mainly include direct energy saving and indirect energy saving. Direct energy saving mainly includes technical energy saving and technique energy saving; indirect energy saving mainly includes structural energy saving, energy saving through management, and energy saving through layout adjustment etc. Energy saving and emission reduction can not be conducted in a single measure, and many energy saving methods should be used and coordinated to gain good effect; third, reasonably use energy, prolong the industrial chain and develop cycle economy; fourth, enhance the entry conditions of high energy consumption and high pollution industry.
     The measures of indirectly controlling the produced amount of externality in energy production and consumption mainly include promoting the rapid development of renewable resource, and optimize energy production and consumption structure etc. The specific measures include: first, integrated arrangement, integrated planning, reducing mutual impediment between departments; second, conduct it according to regions, with clear focus and gradual and orderly progress. Renewable energy is the future development direction of energy, and the country should strongly support and actively advocate it. However, the whole country should not rush to develop renewable energy like a swarm of bees. Instead, we should do it according to the specific situation in each place, formulate plan from national level, develop it regionally with different focus, and conduct it in a gradual and orderly progress, fanning out from point to area; third, collect the scientific and technological strength, cultivate professional talents, and combine long-term and short-term talent planning; fourth, enhance the strength of capital support, establish public efficiency fund to balance the positive and negative effect of different industries.
     No matter for energy saving and emission reduction, or developing renewable resources or adjusting the structure of energy, we can not avoid the pollutants production and externality in energy production and consumption process. Therefore, we should internalize the negative externality through many measures, try to make the social costs of energy production and consumption close to private cost, include the environmental impact into the cost calculation of companies, promote companies to consider problems from the economic perspective, and adopt measures to reduce the production of pollutants and enhance the use efficiency of resources. In current stage, the major and most effective methods of China in internalization of externality mainly include emissions trading system and collection system of drainage charges. In controlling the occurrence of externality, these two internalization methods can exert their roles.
     In promoting the full exertion of emissions trading system, we should start from the following aspects: establish emissions trading system with Chinese characteristics, and on the basis of fully understanding the situation of China, legal system, and related policies, analyze the differences of China with other countries in the aspect of foundation for establishing emissions trading system, fully analyze the emissions trading system in foreign countries, and selectively borrow the experience of other countries based on the specific features of China in order to make the emissions trading system conform to the actual situation of China; establish harmonious and orderly emissions trading market order, and scientifically determine the total amount indexes and distribution standard of emissions trading; strengthen the understanding of the public on emissions trading.
     Further improve collection system of drainage charges, and the main measures include: enhance charging standard, and expand the collection range of drainage charges. Through long time development, the drainage charging has formed good operation system and collection method. However, as for the economic development and pollution condition in current stage of China, the collection system of drainage charges in China has the problems of low charging standard and narrow charging range. For the charging standard and range, new standard should be formed according to new development condition; strengthen environment law enforcement strength, improve management mechanism of collection system of drainage charges, and in the collection process of drainage charges, be serious, authoritative and compulsory. Therefore, we should improve the administrative establishment properties of environment monitoring and controlling institutions, improve the compulsory enforcement system of courts and compulsory allocation mechanism of bank, provide strong system guarantee for enforcement of environment monitoring and controlling institutions, and provide legal support for the high-efficient operation of collection system of drainage charges; strengthen supervision of the government and the mass, and shut down the hard-to-harness polluting companies.
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