长江河口盐水入侵对气候变化和重大工程的响应
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摘要
河口受流域和海洋双重作用,是陆海相互作用激烈的区域。气候变化和重大工程导致河口水文、盐水入侵和生态环境等变化,越来越受到政府和社会的关注。气候变化对河口的影响,主要体现在流域降水的变化导致入海径流量的变化,以及海平面上升。重大工程对河口的影响,主要体现在流域重大工程对入海水沙的影响,如三峡大坝和南水北调工程对长江入海径流量的影响,以及河口重大工程对局地河势的影响。本文应用改进的三维数值模式ECOM-si,以2012年为基准年数值模拟和定量分析长江河口水动力和盐水入侵,预测和分析至2030、2050和2100年在气候变化和重大工程联合作用下长江河口水动力、盐水入侵和淡水资源及其变化。保持某个因子不变,比较模式计算结果与上述各年份综合计算结果,定量剥离气候变化和重大工程各项单独因子对盐水入侵的影响。本文还数值模拟和分析了1999年冬季、2006年秋季和2011年春季长江低径流量情况下海平面上升对盐水入侵和淡水资源的影响。主要成果有：
1.气候变化和重大工程在数值模式边界条件中的给出。数值模拟气候变化和重大工程对长江河口盐水入侵的影响,需要确定不同年代的海平面和径流量,以给出模式的边界条件。海平面变化考虑由气候变化导致的绝对海平面上升、地基沉降和地壳下沉(相对海平面),径流量变化考虑由气候变化引起的径流量变化和三峡水库、南水北调工程的影响。通过历史资料分析和以往研究成果比较,得出2012、2030、2050和2100年入海径流量分别为13755、13057、12792和13631m3/s,相对海平面上升值分别为112.1、281.1和703.6mm。
2.数值模拟和动力分析上述不同年份长江河口枯季盐水入侵对气候变化和重大工程的响应。采用通量机制分解方法分析大小潮期间盐水入侵的动力机制。结果表明,斯托克斯输运是长江河口向陆盐份输送的主要动力因素,同时也是北支倒灌的主要原因。北港口门在大潮期间盐份输送在河道内向海,在滩地上向陆,小潮期间由于垂向切变增强,盐份在河道内向陆、滩地上向海输送。南槽大潮期间向陆的斯托克斯输运占主导地位,小潮期间欧拉输运在科氏力作用下呈现北进南出的态势,同时上段盐份在潮泵和垂向切变共同作用下向陆入侵。南北槽之间有明显的盐份交换,南槽上溯的高盐水进入北槽后下泄,使北槽形成向海的盐份输送。通过机制分析发现,长江河口大潮期间淡水资源主要受到北支倒灌和外海盐水上溯两方面的威胁,而在小潮期间威胁主要来自下游。2100年由于海平面上升值最大,盐水入侵最强,2012年因为入海径流量最大,盐水入侵最弱。长江河口2月的淡水资源在2030、2050和2100年相对于2012年分别减少18.64%、11.39%和33.43%。
3.定量剥离和动力分析气候变化和重大工程中单一因子对长江河口盐水入侵和淡水资源的影响。由气候变化导致的长江枯季入海径流量在未来呈增加的趋势,河口盐水入侵有所削弱。进入北支的径流量增加,抑制了北支盐水倒灌。口门附近大潮期间盐度减小,向陆的斯托克斯输运在径流量增加后有所减小是影响盐度的主要原因。小潮期间由于径流增大了北港河道内的表底层盐度梯度,使得垂向切变作用增强,而在南槽径流抑制了北进的欧拉输运,从而减弱入侵强度,北槽的盐份输送相应减少。2月的淡水资源在2030、2050和2100年受气候变化引起的径流量变化影响分别增加5.46%、30.31%和27.71%。
海平面上升增大了潮汐振幅,致使潮汐强度增加,同时也使河道增深,过水面积加大,径流减弱,而且海平面上升后垂向环流加强,增强了垂向分层结构。在北支,潮汐强度增加使得2030和2100年的盐水倒灌加剧,而2050年则由于过水断面加大使得进入北支的径流增加,导致倒灌减弱。在口门,大潮期间盐水入侵增强,其主要原因是潮汐强度加强使得向陆的斯托克斯输运加大；小潮期间由于水深加深,北港垂向切变显著增强,南槽北侧的欧拉输运增加,从而口门盐水入侵增强。2月的河口淡水资源在2030和2100年受海平面上升影响分别减少8.95%和49.45%,而2050年由于北支倒灌减弱,淡水资源增加约4.41%。
三峡水库在枯季持续性的放水,显著增加了长江入海径流量。三峡工程引起的枯季入海径流量增加明显抑制了大潮期间向陆的斯托克斯输运,使河口盐度明显下降,盐水入侵减弱。2030和2100年情况基本一致,但2050年受海平面上升引起的地形变深非线性作用影响,斯托克斯输运减弱程度较小,导致总体拉格朗日向陆输运略有增加,九段沙滩地上向陆的盐通量明显降低,使整体南槽盐度降低。小潮期间,尤其在2050年径流量较小的情况下,垂向切变作用显著增强。2月的河口淡水资源在2030、2050和2100年受三峡工程影响分别增加30.26%、45.46%和32.38%。
南水北调工程显著减小了长江入海径流量,导致河口盐度明显增高。大潮期间向陆的斯托克斯输运和向海的欧拉输运造成的盐份输运模式增强。小潮期间北港盐度锋面向口内移动,垂向切变作用减弱；南槽径流抑制作用减小,向陆的欧拉输运增强,同时上游斜压力增加,盐水进一步入侵南港,相应的北槽向海盐份输送也加强。2月的河口淡水资源在2030、2050和2100年受南水北调工程影响分别减少19.21%、42.79%和34.41%。
通过气候变化和重大工程各项因子与长江河口淡水资源及北支倒灌盐通量的相关性分析发现,三峡工程和南水北调工程是2030和2050年影响河口盐水入侵的主要因素,但在2100年盐水入侵增强的主要因子是海平面上升,三峡和南水北调工程带来的影响相应减弱。
4.数值模拟和分析了1999年冬季、2006年秋季和2011年春季长江低径流量情况下海平面上升对盐水入侵和淡水资源影响。结果表明,相比于2012年径流量一般的情况,1999年盐水入侵强度显著增强,而2006和2011年情况下影响水库的时段显著增加。在低径流量和海平面上升同时发生的不利情况下,除了2006年海平面上升至2050年情况,由于过水断面增加北支倒灌减弱,东风西沙水库、陈行水库和青草沙水库取水口盐度略有下降,其余情况下水库不宜取水的时间均出现不同程度的增加。
The estuary, which is known as a complex zone of land-ocean interaction, is affected by both river basin and ocean. The influences of climate change and major projects on hydrodynamic and biological environments and saltwater intrusion in the estuary have been greatly concerned by government and society. The impacts of climate change on the estuary are mainly reflected in the variations of river discharge that is caused by precipitation and sea-level rise. And the impacts of major projects are reflected in the change of river discharge altered by engineering such as the Three Gorges Project and the South-to-North Water Diversion Project, and the alteration of local river regime. Based on the improved3-D numerical model ECOM-si, the hydrodynamic process and saltwater intrusion in the Changjiang River estuary were simulated and quantitative analyzed in2012as the standard year. And then the situations of saltwater intrusion and water resources in the estuary were predicted under the interactions of climate change and major projects in2030,2050and2100. By maintaining one of the factors, the effects of climate change and major projects on saltwater intrusion were removed quantitatively. Besides, the drought periods like winter in1999, autumn in2006and spring in2011were simulated and analyzed, and the combined effects between lower river discharge and sea-level rise on saltwater intrusion and freshwater resources were discussed. The main conclusions are summarized as follows:
1. To attain the boundary conditions affected by climate change and major projects. It is necessary to confirm the sea level and river discharge in different years as boundary conditions for studying the responses of saltwater intrusion to climate change and major projects. The sea-level rise includes the absolute sea-level rise caused by climate change, and the land and crustal subsidences (the relative sea-level rise). And the variation of river discharge that we consider is mainly affected by precipitation caused by climate change, and the Three Gorges Project and the South-to-North Water Diversion Project. In accordance with the contrast between historical analysis and results, the river discharge in2012,2030,2050and2100are attained respectively with the value of13755,13057,12792and13631m3/s, and the sea-level rise in each year relative to that in2012are112.1,281.1and703.6mm respectively.
2. The responses of saltwater intrusion to climate change and major projects in dry season in the Changjiang River estuary were simulated and analyzed. By analyzing the salt flux and its decomposed terms, the dynamic mechanisms of salt transport processes during spring and neap tides were studied. The results showed that the Stokes transport is the main dynamic factor for up-estuary salt transport in the Changjiang River estuary; meanwhile it is an important reason for the saltwater-spill-over (SSO) from the North Branch into the South Branch. Near the river mouth, salt transports upstream along main channel in the North Channel, while it goes downstream on tidal flats during spring tide. However, during neap tide, the directions of salt transport in the channel and tidal flats are contrary due to the strengthened vertical shear. In the South Passage, the Stokes transport is the major mechanism for up-estuary salt transport during spring tide, while during neap tide the salt transports upstream along north side and downstream along south side under Coriolis force, in the meantime, saltwater intrudes upstream continuously under tidal pumping and vertical shear transports near the upper reaches. The salt exchange is distinct between the South and North Passages. Saltwater that transports upstream along the South Channel turns downstream in the North Passage, resulting in the seaward salt Eulerian transport. By the result of mechanism analysis, freshwater resource in the Changjiang River estuary is threatened by the SSO and up-estuary migrated seawater during spring tide, while seawater is the main reason during neap tide. It is most serious in2100as the highest sea level, while in2012the intrusion is comparatively weaker for larger river discharge. During the whole February, the freshwater resources in2030,2050and2100relative to that in2012decrease by18.64%,11.39%and33.43%, respectively.
3. The effect of each factor affected by climate change and major projects on saltwater intrusion in the Changjiang River estuary was analyzed and removed quantitatively. The results show that saltwater intrusion can be weakened as the improved tendency of river discharge caused by climate change in the future. Because it increases the freshwater that discharges into the North Branch, the SSO can be suppressed. Near the river mouth, the up-estuary Stokes transport decreases under increased river discharge during spring tide, indicating the decreased salinity. During neap tide, the salinity gradient between surface and bottom layers in the North Channel are enlarged as the increased river discharge, promoting the strengthened vertical shear. While the Eulerian transport that transports salt along the north side in the South Passage is weakened, resulting in the reduction of saltwater intrusion, and thereby reduces salt transport in the North Passage. During the whole February, the freshwater resources in2030,2050and2100increase by5.46%,30.31%and27.71%respectively as the increased river discharge caused by climate change.
The effect of sea-level rise includes the larger tidal amplitude, which can improve tidal strength, and the deeper channel, which means the larger discharge area. Meanwhile, the vertical flow exchange can be strengthened as sea-level rise, and furthermore enhances the vertical stratification.In the North Branch, the SSO is aggravated by the enhanced tidal strength in2030and2100, while in2050it is weakened as the increased freshwater discharging into the channel with a larger discharge area. Near the river mouth, the larger Stokes transport under enhanced tidal strength is the main reason for stronger saltwater intrusion during spring tide. However, due to the deeper topography and weaker tidal strength during neap tide, the vertical shear transports more salt into the estuary in the North Channel, and the Eulerian transport increases along the north side in the South Passage, indicating that saltwater intrusion becomes more serious. During the whole February, the freshwater resources in2030and2100decrease by8.95%and49.45%respectively as sea-level rise, while in2050it increases by4.41%due to the weaker SSO.
The Three Gorges Reservoir that releases freshwater persistently in dry season can distinctly increase downstream river discharge, while the South-to-North Water Diversion Project diverts water resources to the north, resulting in the decrease of river discharge. The increased river discharge after the Three Gorges Project suppresses the up-estuary Stokes transport obviously during spring tide, and salinity decreases near the river mouth. The mechanisms in2030and2100are similar, while by the nonlinear effect as sea-level rise in2050, the value of reduced Stokes transport is less in the South Passage, and then the total up-estuary Lagrangian transport increases slightly. The salt transport on the Jiuduan Sandbank is weakened, decreasing salinity in the South Passage. During neap tide, more salt transports into the estuary by strengthened vertical shear, especially in2050that river discharge is smaller. During the whole February, the freshwater resources in2030,2050and2100increase by30.26%,45.46%and32.38%respectively as the influence of the Three Gorges Project.
The South-to-North Water Diversion Project decreases river discharge, especially in dry season, and salinity increases obviously in the estuary. During spring tide, the circulation between up-estuary Stokes transport and seaward Eulerian transport enhances. During neap tide, salinity front moves upstream in the North Channel, resulting in a weaker vertical shear. In the South Passage, up-estuary Eulerian transport becomes larger as decreased river discharge, meanwhile the baroclinic force is strengthened in the upper reaches, indicating that saltwater migrates upstream into the South Channel, and the salt transports more to the sea in the North Passage. During the whole February, the freshwater resources in2030,2050and2100decrease by19.21%,42.79%and34.41%respectively as the South-to-North Water Diversion Project.
According to the correlation analysis between each factor of climate change and major projects and freshwater resources and the SSO in the Changjiang River estuary, the Three Gorges Project and the South-to-North Water Diversion Project are the main reasons for saltwater intrusion in2030and2050while sea-level rise is the most important factor in2100, and the effects of major projects decrease correspondingly.
4. The influences of saltwater intrusion and freshwater resources in drought periods, such as winter in1999, autumn in2006and spring in2011, were simulated and analyzed, and the combined effects together with sea-level rise were discussed. The results showed that compared to that in2012, saltwater intrusion is more serious in1999, and the hazard for Dongfengxisha, Chenhang and Qingcaosha reservoirs sustains a longer time in2006and2011. Under the unfavorable situation that sea level rises, the threat of water intake in all the reservoirs can be extended by saltwater intrusion. Except for the weakened SSO in2006as the increased discharge area by sea-level rise under2050level, salinity decreases slightly.
1.气候变化和重大工程在数值模式边界条件中的给出。数值模拟气候变化和重大工程对长江河口盐水入侵的影响,需要确定不同年代的海平面和径流量,以给出模式的边界条件。海平面变化考虑由气候变化导致的绝对海平面上升、地基沉降和地壳下沉(相对海平面),径流量变化考虑由气候变化引起的径流量变化和三峡水库、南水北调工程的影响。通过历史资料分析和以往研究成果比较,得出2012、2030、2050和2100年入海径流量分别为13755、13057、12792和13631m3/s,相对海平面上升值分别为112.1、281.1和703.6mm。
2.数值模拟和动力分析上述不同年份长江河口枯季盐水入侵对气候变化和重大工程的响应。采用通量机制分解方法分析大小潮期间盐水入侵的动力机制。结果表明,斯托克斯输运是长江河口向陆盐份输送的主要动力因素,同时也是北支倒灌的主要原因。北港口门在大潮期间盐份输送在河道内向海,在滩地上向陆,小潮期间由于垂向切变增强,盐份在河道内向陆、滩地上向海输送。南槽大潮期间向陆的斯托克斯输运占主导地位,小潮期间欧拉输运在科氏力作用下呈现北进南出的态势,同时上段盐份在潮泵和垂向切变共同作用下向陆入侵。南北槽之间有明显的盐份交换,南槽上溯的高盐水进入北槽后下泄,使北槽形成向海的盐份输送。通过机制分析发现,长江河口大潮期间淡水资源主要受到北支倒灌和外海盐水上溯两方面的威胁,而在小潮期间威胁主要来自下游。2100年由于海平面上升值最大,盐水入侵最强,2012年因为入海径流量最大,盐水入侵最弱。长江河口2月的淡水资源在2030、2050和2100年相对于2012年分别减少18.64%、11.39%和33.43%。
3.定量剥离和动力分析气候变化和重大工程中单一因子对长江河口盐水入侵和淡水资源的影响。由气候变化导致的长江枯季入海径流量在未来呈增加的趋势,河口盐水入侵有所削弱。进入北支的径流量增加,抑制了北支盐水倒灌。口门附近大潮期间盐度减小,向陆的斯托克斯输运在径流量增加后有所减小是影响盐度的主要原因。小潮期间由于径流增大了北港河道内的表底层盐度梯度,使得垂向切变作用增强,而在南槽径流抑制了北进的欧拉输运,从而减弱入侵强度,北槽的盐份输送相应减少。2月的淡水资源在2030、2050和2100年受气候变化引起的径流量变化影响分别增加5.46%、30.31%和27.71%。
海平面上升增大了潮汐振幅,致使潮汐强度增加,同时也使河道增深,过水面积加大,径流减弱,而且海平面上升后垂向环流加强,增强了垂向分层结构。在北支,潮汐强度增加使得2030和2100年的盐水倒灌加剧,而2050年则由于过水断面加大使得进入北支的径流增加,导致倒灌减弱。在口门,大潮期间盐水入侵增强,其主要原因是潮汐强度加强使得向陆的斯托克斯输运加大；小潮期间由于水深加深,北港垂向切变显著增强,南槽北侧的欧拉输运增加,从而口门盐水入侵增强。2月的河口淡水资源在2030和2100年受海平面上升影响分别减少8.95%和49.45%,而2050年由于北支倒灌减弱,淡水资源增加约4.41%。
三峡水库在枯季持续性的放水,显著增加了长江入海径流量。三峡工程引起的枯季入海径流量增加明显抑制了大潮期间向陆的斯托克斯输运,使河口盐度明显下降,盐水入侵减弱。2030和2100年情况基本一致,但2050年受海平面上升引起的地形变深非线性作用影响,斯托克斯输运减弱程度较小,导致总体拉格朗日向陆输运略有增加,九段沙滩地上向陆的盐通量明显降低,使整体南槽盐度降低。小潮期间,尤其在2050年径流量较小的情况下,垂向切变作用显著增强。2月的河口淡水资源在2030、2050和2100年受三峡工程影响分别增加30.26%、45.46%和32.38%。
南水北调工程显著减小了长江入海径流量,导致河口盐度明显增高。大潮期间向陆的斯托克斯输运和向海的欧拉输运造成的盐份输运模式增强。小潮期间北港盐度锋面向口内移动,垂向切变作用减弱；南槽径流抑制作用减小,向陆的欧拉输运增强,同时上游斜压力增加,盐水进一步入侵南港,相应的北槽向海盐份输送也加强。2月的河口淡水资源在2030、2050和2100年受南水北调工程影响分别减少19.21%、42.79%和34.41%。
通过气候变化和重大工程各项因子与长江河口淡水资源及北支倒灌盐通量的相关性分析发现,三峡工程和南水北调工程是2030和2050年影响河口盐水入侵的主要因素,但在2100年盐水入侵增强的主要因子是海平面上升,三峡和南水北调工程带来的影响相应减弱。
4.数值模拟和分析了1999年冬季、2006年秋季和2011年春季长江低径流量情况下海平面上升对盐水入侵和淡水资源影响。结果表明,相比于2012年径流量一般的情况,1999年盐水入侵强度显著增强,而2006和2011年情况下影响水库的时段显著增加。在低径流量和海平面上升同时发生的不利情况下,除了2006年海平面上升至2050年情况,由于过水断面增加北支倒灌减弱,东风西沙水库、陈行水库和青草沙水库取水口盐度略有下降,其余情况下水库不宜取水的时间均出现不同程度的增加。
The estuary, which is known as a complex zone of land-ocean interaction, is affected by both river basin and ocean. The influences of climate change and major projects on hydrodynamic and biological environments and saltwater intrusion in the estuary have been greatly concerned by government and society. The impacts of climate change on the estuary are mainly reflected in the variations of river discharge that is caused by precipitation and sea-level rise. And the impacts of major projects are reflected in the change of river discharge altered by engineering such as the Three Gorges Project and the South-to-North Water Diversion Project, and the alteration of local river regime. Based on the improved3-D numerical model ECOM-si, the hydrodynamic process and saltwater intrusion in the Changjiang River estuary were simulated and quantitative analyzed in2012as the standard year. And then the situations of saltwater intrusion and water resources in the estuary were predicted under the interactions of climate change and major projects in2030,2050and2100. By maintaining one of the factors, the effects of climate change and major projects on saltwater intrusion were removed quantitatively. Besides, the drought periods like winter in1999, autumn in2006and spring in2011were simulated and analyzed, and the combined effects between lower river discharge and sea-level rise on saltwater intrusion and freshwater resources were discussed. The main conclusions are summarized as follows:
1. To attain the boundary conditions affected by climate change and major projects. It is necessary to confirm the sea level and river discharge in different years as boundary conditions for studying the responses of saltwater intrusion to climate change and major projects. The sea-level rise includes the absolute sea-level rise caused by climate change, and the land and crustal subsidences (the relative sea-level rise). And the variation of river discharge that we consider is mainly affected by precipitation caused by climate change, and the Three Gorges Project and the South-to-North Water Diversion Project. In accordance with the contrast between historical analysis and results, the river discharge in2012,2030,2050and2100are attained respectively with the value of13755,13057,12792and13631m3/s, and the sea-level rise in each year relative to that in2012are112.1,281.1and703.6mm respectively.
2. The responses of saltwater intrusion to climate change and major projects in dry season in the Changjiang River estuary were simulated and analyzed. By analyzing the salt flux and its decomposed terms, the dynamic mechanisms of salt transport processes during spring and neap tides were studied. The results showed that the Stokes transport is the main dynamic factor for up-estuary salt transport in the Changjiang River estuary; meanwhile it is an important reason for the saltwater-spill-over (SSO) from the North Branch into the South Branch. Near the river mouth, salt transports upstream along main channel in the North Channel, while it goes downstream on tidal flats during spring tide. However, during neap tide, the directions of salt transport in the channel and tidal flats are contrary due to the strengthened vertical shear. In the South Passage, the Stokes transport is the major mechanism for up-estuary salt transport during spring tide, while during neap tide the salt transports upstream along north side and downstream along south side under Coriolis force, in the meantime, saltwater intrudes upstream continuously under tidal pumping and vertical shear transports near the upper reaches. The salt exchange is distinct between the South and North Passages. Saltwater that transports upstream along the South Channel turns downstream in the North Passage, resulting in the seaward salt Eulerian transport. By the result of mechanism analysis, freshwater resource in the Changjiang River estuary is threatened by the SSO and up-estuary migrated seawater during spring tide, while seawater is the main reason during neap tide. It is most serious in2100as the highest sea level, while in2012the intrusion is comparatively weaker for larger river discharge. During the whole February, the freshwater resources in2030,2050and2100relative to that in2012decrease by18.64%,11.39%and33.43%, respectively.
3. The effect of each factor affected by climate change and major projects on saltwater intrusion in the Changjiang River estuary was analyzed and removed quantitatively. The results show that saltwater intrusion can be weakened as the improved tendency of river discharge caused by climate change in the future. Because it increases the freshwater that discharges into the North Branch, the SSO can be suppressed. Near the river mouth, the up-estuary Stokes transport decreases under increased river discharge during spring tide, indicating the decreased salinity. During neap tide, the salinity gradient between surface and bottom layers in the North Channel are enlarged as the increased river discharge, promoting the strengthened vertical shear. While the Eulerian transport that transports salt along the north side in the South Passage is weakened, resulting in the reduction of saltwater intrusion, and thereby reduces salt transport in the North Passage. During the whole February, the freshwater resources in2030,2050and2100increase by5.46%,30.31%and27.71%respectively as the increased river discharge caused by climate change.
The effect of sea-level rise includes the larger tidal amplitude, which can improve tidal strength, and the deeper channel, which means the larger discharge area. Meanwhile, the vertical flow exchange can be strengthened as sea-level rise, and furthermore enhances the vertical stratification.In the North Branch, the SSO is aggravated by the enhanced tidal strength in2030and2100, while in2050it is weakened as the increased freshwater discharging into the channel with a larger discharge area. Near the river mouth, the larger Stokes transport under enhanced tidal strength is the main reason for stronger saltwater intrusion during spring tide. However, due to the deeper topography and weaker tidal strength during neap tide, the vertical shear transports more salt into the estuary in the North Channel, and the Eulerian transport increases along the north side in the South Passage, indicating that saltwater intrusion becomes more serious. During the whole February, the freshwater resources in2030and2100decrease by8.95%and49.45%respectively as sea-level rise, while in2050it increases by4.41%due to the weaker SSO.
The Three Gorges Reservoir that releases freshwater persistently in dry season can distinctly increase downstream river discharge, while the South-to-North Water Diversion Project diverts water resources to the north, resulting in the decrease of river discharge. The increased river discharge after the Three Gorges Project suppresses the up-estuary Stokes transport obviously during spring tide, and salinity decreases near the river mouth. The mechanisms in2030and2100are similar, while by the nonlinear effect as sea-level rise in2050, the value of reduced Stokes transport is less in the South Passage, and then the total up-estuary Lagrangian transport increases slightly. The salt transport on the Jiuduan Sandbank is weakened, decreasing salinity in the South Passage. During neap tide, more salt transports into the estuary by strengthened vertical shear, especially in2050that river discharge is smaller. During the whole February, the freshwater resources in2030,2050and2100increase by30.26%,45.46%and32.38%respectively as the influence of the Three Gorges Project.
The South-to-North Water Diversion Project decreases river discharge, especially in dry season, and salinity increases obviously in the estuary. During spring tide, the circulation between up-estuary Stokes transport and seaward Eulerian transport enhances. During neap tide, salinity front moves upstream in the North Channel, resulting in a weaker vertical shear. In the South Passage, up-estuary Eulerian transport becomes larger as decreased river discharge, meanwhile the baroclinic force is strengthened in the upper reaches, indicating that saltwater migrates upstream into the South Channel, and the salt transports more to the sea in the North Passage. During the whole February, the freshwater resources in2030,2050and2100decrease by19.21%,42.79%and34.41%respectively as the South-to-North Water Diversion Project.
According to the correlation analysis between each factor of climate change and major projects and freshwater resources and the SSO in the Changjiang River estuary, the Three Gorges Project and the South-to-North Water Diversion Project are the main reasons for saltwater intrusion in2030and2050while sea-level rise is the most important factor in2100, and the effects of major projects decrease correspondingly.
4. The influences of saltwater intrusion and freshwater resources in drought periods, such as winter in1999, autumn in2006and spring in2011, were simulated and analyzed, and the combined effects together with sea-level rise were discussed. The results showed that compared to that in2012, saltwater intrusion is more serious in1999, and the hazard for Dongfengxisha, Chenhang and Qingcaosha reservoirs sustains a longer time in2006and2011. Under the unfavorable situation that sea level rises, the threat of water intake in all the reservoirs can be extended by saltwater intrusion. Except for the weakened SSO in2006as the increased discharge area by sea-level rise under2050level, salinity decreases slightly.
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