网络突发事件蔓延及干预研究
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摘要
随着我国互联网的快速发展，网民通过网络参与社会管理的热情不断高涨。与此同时，网络突发事件发生的频率越来越来高,其影响由网络空间进入现实生活，从虚拟议题走向社会现实，以新的突发事件危机形式给政府治理带来严重挑战。高度重视网络突发事件，切实加强其应对能力，已经成为我国政府不可回避的重要任务。但从当今我国相关理论研究的主体内容与水平上看，对网络突发事件的发生机理和应对机制的研究还存在许多不足，需要进一步的深入探讨。
在网络突发事件的生命周期中，蔓延期对整个事件的发生机理、发展趋势产生着至关重要的影响。网络突发事件在蔓延过程中呈现出什么样的规律性特征，又是在哪些因素作用下沿怎样的路径发展演变，对其又如何进行恰当干预等学理问题，是建立网络突发事件科学认知、开展干预政策研究的理论基础。为此，文本以网络突发事件的蔓延过程为研究对象，以事件蔓延演变及其干预为核心议题，运用相关理论和研究方法对此议题展开网络突发事件蔓延与干预的机理研究。
首先，本文采用案例推理方法，从网络突发事件蔓延的类型特征、蔓延的影响因素以及蔓延路径的角度展开分析，揭示了网络突发事件在蔓延期的基本特性与活动规律。即：事件蔓延的周期短，形成迅速，爆发力强；事件蔓延在空间上表现出广泛性与局域性并存的特征，尤其是事件作用于特定局域地区时，对区域社会空间的影响可能会更大、更直接；事件蔓延的渠道是多种传播方式的交互，主要的传播平台有网络媒介、传统大众媒介等，人际传播等沟通形式也发挥着巨大的效能空间；此时参与者行为的相互作用会形成整体表现而逐渐会产生某种行为的一致性；事件蔓延主要有三种路径，其过程受初始事件特性、网络积极分子推动、传统媒体的参与以及政府干预缺失或不当等因素的影响。
其次，借鉴复杂系统的研究方法，深入探讨了网络突发事件蔓延的发生机理。建立了网络突发事件蔓延演化的要素分析结构：包括蔓延动力源、蔓延主体、蔓延客体以及蔓延环境及其相互作用关系；揭示了网络突发事件蔓延的过程实质是网络群体行为扩散的过程，即网络群体行为的扩散是在事件信息刺激下产生的同一行为在不同主体间的转移与传递，这一扩散过程既受个体固有的心理特性影响，又受到外界信息变化的影响；基于经典扩散模型建立基于个体水平上网络群体行为扩散模型，通过模型推理揭示：政府利用网络资源的优势，第一时间发布真实信息，取得网络话语权，调整公众非理性的动机，引导事件发展方向，对预防与处置网络突发事件至关重要；在网络突发事件蔓延特性与动力研究的基础上，归纳出其三种蔓延模式：点轴式、传染式与跳板式蔓延模式，其中点轴式蔓延模式最为普通和常见的事件蔓延形式，传染式蔓延模式通常伴随着谣言或某种社会情绪的传播与传染，而跳板式蔓延模式是最具风险性、最难调控的一种网络蔓延现象。
再次，从应急管理的角度出发，分别对网络突发事件蔓延动力源、蔓延主体、蔓延客体以及蔓延环境提出了相应的干预策略与措施。
最后，分析了网络突发事件的风险根源及其危险性评估要素，阐述了网络突发事件的风险管理过程，并从公民和政府两个方面提出了相关的公共治理的对策。
The enthusiasm of internet users to participate in social management is growing withthe rapid development of the internet in china, and the internet emergency is a new type ofpublic security crisis. because of the high frequency of the internet emergency and itsrealistic impact, governments are facing a great challenge of governance and riskmanagement. So governments have to attach great importance to internet emergency andeffectively strengthen the capacity to respond to it. Overall, there are still manyshortcomings in the research about the mechanism of the occurrence and intervention ofthe internet emergency so that it needs further discussion and research.
Based on the analysis of the life cycle about the internet emergency, this study arguesthat the contagion stage has the crucial impact on its occurrence and development. Withthe spread of the internet emergency as the research object and its evolution andintervention as the core issues, this study uses the relevant theory and methods to conductthe research on these topics: characteristics and law of its spread, influence factors, theevolution path, and so on.
First, the analysis on the special nature of its spread mainly includes characteristics ofthe spread, factors of the spread as well as the spread path with method of case-basedreasoning. The short cycle of contagion is rapidly evolving form with a sudden outbreak.The space of its spread is both extensive and localized and its impact on the real spacemay be greater and more direct if it occurs in the local region. The channels of its spreadinclude a variety of mode of transmission, such as internet media and traditional massmedia and other forms of communication such as human-to-human transmission also playan important role. About the public opinion, there will be a short, quick and irregulargrowth at the contagion stage. At this point, participant behavior forms the overallperformance and tends to be some kind of consistency behavior. There are three spread paths that are affected by the characteristics of the initial event, actions of activists,traditional media and the improper intervention of government.
Second, this study exprores the spread dynamic mechanism of internet emergencydrawing on the research methods of complex systems. It constructs the spread powersystem of internet emergency and analyzes the four constituents of the system: subject,object, environment and power source; these dynamic factors influence each other andjointly promote the evolution of the spread. It reveals the essence of the spread process ofthe internet emergency: the spread process of network group behavior. The spread ofnetwork group behavior is the actor-to-actor transmission of the same act arising from thestimulation of the event information, and it is affected not only by an individual’s intrinsicpsychology but also by the change of information. Based on the classical diffusion model,the individual-level model of diffusion of network group behavior is established, and itpoints out that it is essential for government to release the factual information timely,obtain the internet voice, adjust the non-rational motivation of the public and guide thedirection of events in order to prevent and handle the internet emergency. There are threespread mode with different development characteristics: the point-axis spread that iscommon mode; the contagious spread that is usually accompanied by the spread of rumorsor social emotions; the springboard spread that is most difficult to predict and control.
Then,based on the above analysis, it proposes appropriate intervention strategies andmeasures for four constituents of the spread power from the point of view of emergencymanagement.
Finally, it analyzes the risk management process of the internet emergency and putforward countermeasures and suggestions of governance.
在网络突发事件的生命周期中，蔓延期对整个事件的发生机理、发展趋势产生着至关重要的影响。网络突发事件在蔓延过程中呈现出什么样的规律性特征，又是在哪些因素作用下沿怎样的路径发展演变，对其又如何进行恰当干预等学理问题，是建立网络突发事件科学认知、开展干预政策研究的理论基础。为此，文本以网络突发事件的蔓延过程为研究对象，以事件蔓延演变及其干预为核心议题，运用相关理论和研究方法对此议题展开网络突发事件蔓延与干预的机理研究。
首先，本文采用案例推理方法，从网络突发事件蔓延的类型特征、蔓延的影响因素以及蔓延路径的角度展开分析，揭示了网络突发事件在蔓延期的基本特性与活动规律。即：事件蔓延的周期短，形成迅速，爆发力强；事件蔓延在空间上表现出广泛性与局域性并存的特征，尤其是事件作用于特定局域地区时，对区域社会空间的影响可能会更大、更直接；事件蔓延的渠道是多种传播方式的交互，主要的传播平台有网络媒介、传统大众媒介等，人际传播等沟通形式也发挥着巨大的效能空间；此时参与者行为的相互作用会形成整体表现而逐渐会产生某种行为的一致性；事件蔓延主要有三种路径，其过程受初始事件特性、网络积极分子推动、传统媒体的参与以及政府干预缺失或不当等因素的影响。
其次，借鉴复杂系统的研究方法，深入探讨了网络突发事件蔓延的发生机理。建立了网络突发事件蔓延演化的要素分析结构：包括蔓延动力源、蔓延主体、蔓延客体以及蔓延环境及其相互作用关系；揭示了网络突发事件蔓延的过程实质是网络群体行为扩散的过程，即网络群体行为的扩散是在事件信息刺激下产生的同一行为在不同主体间的转移与传递，这一扩散过程既受个体固有的心理特性影响，又受到外界信息变化的影响；基于经典扩散模型建立基于个体水平上网络群体行为扩散模型，通过模型推理揭示：政府利用网络资源的优势，第一时间发布真实信息，取得网络话语权，调整公众非理性的动机，引导事件发展方向，对预防与处置网络突发事件至关重要；在网络突发事件蔓延特性与动力研究的基础上，归纳出其三种蔓延模式：点轴式、传染式与跳板式蔓延模式，其中点轴式蔓延模式最为普通和常见的事件蔓延形式，传染式蔓延模式通常伴随着谣言或某种社会情绪的传播与传染，而跳板式蔓延模式是最具风险性、最难调控的一种网络蔓延现象。
再次，从应急管理的角度出发，分别对网络突发事件蔓延动力源、蔓延主体、蔓延客体以及蔓延环境提出了相应的干预策略与措施。
最后，分析了网络突发事件的风险根源及其危险性评估要素，阐述了网络突发事件的风险管理过程，并从公民和政府两个方面提出了相关的公共治理的对策。
The enthusiasm of internet users to participate in social management is growing withthe rapid development of the internet in china, and the internet emergency is a new type ofpublic security crisis. because of the high frequency of the internet emergency and itsrealistic impact, governments are facing a great challenge of governance and riskmanagement. So governments have to attach great importance to internet emergency andeffectively strengthen the capacity to respond to it. Overall, there are still manyshortcomings in the research about the mechanism of the occurrence and intervention ofthe internet emergency so that it needs further discussion and research.
Based on the analysis of the life cycle about the internet emergency, this study arguesthat the contagion stage has the crucial impact on its occurrence and development. Withthe spread of the internet emergency as the research object and its evolution andintervention as the core issues, this study uses the relevant theory and methods to conductthe research on these topics: characteristics and law of its spread, influence factors, theevolution path, and so on.
First, the analysis on the special nature of its spread mainly includes characteristics ofthe spread, factors of the spread as well as the spread path with method of case-basedreasoning. The short cycle of contagion is rapidly evolving form with a sudden outbreak.The space of its spread is both extensive and localized and its impact on the real spacemay be greater and more direct if it occurs in the local region. The channels of its spreadinclude a variety of mode of transmission, such as internet media and traditional massmedia and other forms of communication such as human-to-human transmission also playan important role. About the public opinion, there will be a short, quick and irregulargrowth at the contagion stage. At this point, participant behavior forms the overallperformance and tends to be some kind of consistency behavior. There are three spread paths that are affected by the characteristics of the initial event, actions of activists,traditional media and the improper intervention of government.
Second, this study exprores the spread dynamic mechanism of internet emergencydrawing on the research methods of complex systems. It constructs the spread powersystem of internet emergency and analyzes the four constituents of the system: subject,object, environment and power source; these dynamic factors influence each other andjointly promote the evolution of the spread. It reveals the essence of the spread process ofthe internet emergency: the spread process of network group behavior. The spread ofnetwork group behavior is the actor-to-actor transmission of the same act arising from thestimulation of the event information, and it is affected not only by an individual’s intrinsicpsychology but also by the change of information. Based on the classical diffusion model,the individual-level model of diffusion of network group behavior is established, and itpoints out that it is essential for government to release the factual information timely,obtain the internet voice, adjust the non-rational motivation of the public and guide thedirection of events in order to prevent and handle the internet emergency. There are threespread mode with different development characteristics: the point-axis spread that iscommon mode; the contagious spread that is usually accompanied by the spread of rumorsor social emotions; the springboard spread that is most difficult to predict and control.
Then,based on the above analysis, it proposes appropriate intervention strategies andmeasures for four constituents of the spread power from the point of view of emergencymanagement.
Finally, it analyzes the risk management process of the internet emergency and putforward countermeasures and suggestions of governance.
引文
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