基于低碳经济视角的中国风电产业发展研究
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摘要
本文首先针对电力新能源风电产业相关研究的文献进行综述,发现国内学者以发展的眼光对我国风电产业的发展进行系统、深层地研究很少,尤其是从低碳经济的视角为切入点来研究风电产业发展,在国内目前研究领域处于空白,所以该课题有很大的理论研究价值。为此,本文本着理论与实际相结合的原则,基于低碳经济视角,在产业经济学、循环经济、技术创新等相关理论指导下,以电力新能源风电产业为主要研究对象,对风电产业发展作了定量和定性的研究。
首先,通过对我国能源结构的分析,指出低碳经济是优化能源结构,实现能源可持续发展的必由之路,风电是发展低碳经济的最佳新能源。再者,本文在国内外风电产业发展现状的基础上,利用模糊理论、产业竞争力相关理论对风电产业的竞争优势进行详尽的分析,并探讨了风电产业对持续发展的贡献,同时提出提升风电产业竞争力的竞争策略。最后本文在以上综合分析的基础上,以发展战略的眼光展开了风电产业运营策略、技术创新模式和投资发展策略的研究:分析了风电成本影响因素和定价机理,发现其存在问题及成因,并针对我国风电产业运营存在的风险和障碍,提出相应规避风险的运营策略;分析了产业发展阶段技术创新的特点,提出我国风电技术必须走以模仿创新为主,率先创新为辅的技术创新模式;从时间角度运用灰色理论预测风电发展趋势和从空间角度运用聚类理论分析了重点投资区域,运用经验学习曲线模型预测成本变化,并且结合风电产业投资综合分析,提出了相关投资策略。
In the contemporary society, Low Carbon Economy has been the common issue concerned by increasingly more countries around the world as the optimal economic model choice against global warming. The Scientific Outlook on Development proposed by President Hu means“putting people first and aiming at comprehensive, coordinated and sustainable development”, which simultaneously indicates the direction in China for the development of Low Carbon Economy and the fruition of sustainable development. The Low Carbon Economy is a brand-new subject for both home and abroad which betokening one kind of future economic development model, as essence of which the reasonable energy structure will be established via the decrease of energy consuming and reduction of contamination discharges, and the crux depends on the innovations in both technologies and systems. The Low Carbon Economy is not only the theoretical basis for creation of energy low-carbon economic community, but also the embodiment of circular economy, the guarantee of energy sustainable development, and the crucial motivation for the exploration of new energy.
Energy is the considerable material base of economic development and social progress as an important factor which affects our living environment. At present, the energy structure dominated by the coal resources is unreasonable and low efficiency, which restricts the sustainable development seriously and cannot fulfill the requirements of Low Carbon Economy. Since it is the crucial pathway to develop new energy such as wind electricity to realize the Low Carton Economy and to optimize the energy structure, we must promote new energies deliberately including wind power, optimize the energy structure and guarantee the energy sustainable development. Today the plan about to develop renewable resources of energy has been incorporated in our long-term development strategy program, which ensures advantages in the development of wind power industry.
Up till now, the scholars both home and abroad have made numerous researches on the related fields of wind power, but most of them are confined to the simple introduction or the analysis about some substructure of whole industry. It is rather seldom that a research has been proposed systematic strategy advices through deep research on the development of our national wind power industry, especially from the angle of Low Carbon Economy, therefore the research field is almost blank now, and the issue presented by this paper has a significant research value. Consequently, according to the principle of the integration of theory with practice, this dissertation takes the Low Carbon Economy as the breakthrough point with the aid of some related theories, such as industrial economics, the circular economy, the technological innovation theory etc, thereby regarding the wind power industry in new electric energy field as the main study object to make the quota and the qualitative researches on the industrial level for the wind power industry’s development.
The theoretical basis of this article includes the industrial development theory, the sustainable development theory, the circular economy and the technological innovation theory. The industrial evolution process is the industrial structure rationalization along with the optimal process, and its development should insist on the sustainable development as the core thought with protection resources and ecological environment as well, and exert beneficial influence on the offspring’s survival and development. The circular economy is a gigantic system that involves the economy, technologies, and the environment ecology, while the“3R”is the crux of the circulation economical principles, which means its development needs support from the technical system. The technological innovation theory is the rationale of technological development for the wind power industry.
Based on the above listed theories, this article starts analyzing the national energy structure and the current situation of wind electric industry on the view of Low Carbon Economy. Through the analysis of national energy structure and Low Carbon Economy with the means of grey relational grade and energy modulus of elasticity the article concludes that the features representing our national heavy industry phase are quite clear, with the unreasonable energy structure dominated by the coal, lacking the clean energy, exert detrimental influence to facilitate Low Carbon Economy and sustainable development. Thus the energy structure needs to be optimized. To develop the Low Carbon Economy is the only way to optimize the energy structure, to realize the energy sustainable development, and it fulfills the embodiment of the circular economy, while the wind electricity is the optimum new energy to develop the Low Carbon Economy.
Through the analysis of the current situation of the domestic and foreign wind power industry development, the article find out the potential and the disparity of our national industry that our industrial potential is considerable, but regarding about wind power industry going scale and localization, it is still urgent to be intensified with techniques to be improved, and the policies and regulations correlated to the market mechanism need to be consummated.
The article discovers that the wind power is the aim of good CDM projects as the main force of the Low Carbon Economy by the analysis of competitive edge and the whole social economic benefit combined with the fuzzy theory. The wind power has the lowest social total cost and the favorable social economy benefits, which will contribute to the environment protection, electricity economy, and social green employment along with years. The article analyzes the competitive edge of wind power industry with the industrial competition correlated theories, such as SWOT analysis, diamond competition model, and concludes the core competition advantage in the investment and innovation, which leads to a series of strategy advices to promote the national wind power industry, for instances, to improve the development of higher hierarchy production elements, to enhance the development of relating industries, to set up the reasonable market competition mechanism, to strengthen the cooperation among enterprises, to grasp opportunities and contribute fully to the support of government in economics.
The article has analyzed the situations of industrial operation, the cost structure, the current state of wind power price and the pricing setting mechanism. Then the conclusion reaches that with the enhancement of the large going scale and localization degree, the wind electricity cost will drop gradually, and its efficiency will appear along with the time, in which the primary factors restricting the cost including the national policy, the extent of going scale and equipment localization, and loan tenure etc.; the loan tenure exerts crucial influence on the wind electricity cost setting price (the lowest operation price for the enterprise): the repaying term to be longer, the cost price setting will be lower, and the higher investment returns ratio will be gain by enterprises. After that, the article analyzes the risks and barriers in the wind power industry operation, and proposes the risk aversion operation strategy: to establish the reasonable market mechanism and consummate related industrial policy; to enhance the degree of the large going scale and localization; to cultivate steady market; to improve the circumstances for developing the low-carbon industry, and to establish green power market.
With the study on present situation of technology in national wind power industry and the development trend, the article finds that our technological innovation lies in the transition stage between the innovation formative period and the innovation expansion period. It shows that in the present stage the technological innovation of the national wind power industry must follow the process pattern of technical and market interaction innovation. Further more, the article simultaneously proposes the wind power industry technological innovation strategy conceptions conceiving for the initial state, metaphase and long-dated, which also puts forward the present strategy of technological innovation: namely that our national wind power industry should maximize the foreign technology acquisition, digestion and absorption, following along the independent innovation pathway on which the imitation innovation plays primary role with complete innovation as an auxiliary way.
Based on the analysis of wind power industry investment situation, the article discovers the restriction obstacles such as the investment risk of sheep effect and the unreasonable market pricing mechanism, though the national wind power industry investment increase rapidly. Furthermore, from the angles of time and space the article utilizes the theories of Grey theory and systematic cluster analysis to predict the trend of wind power development, pointing out that national wind power industry are entering accelerating developing phase. The Inner Mongolia, Hebei, Liaoning and Jilin belong to the optimal regions to invest. Then, it uses the experience learning curve theory to analyze the national wind power industry cost of investment change, which pointes out that per kilowatt cost of investment for the wind power will reduce along with the installed capacity increasing, and the proportion of the wind power equipment price accounts for whole investment will drop too. The article also predicts that in the several years, the price differences among the wind power, the thermal power generation and the hydroelectric power will reduce gradually.
Finally, this article carries on the comprehensive analysis on the possibility of wind power industrial profit, the growth potential, anti-risk ability, and concludes that our industry is located in the profession of high return of investment, and has quite good prospects for development with long duration. At last, this article proposes the projects, the products and regions that the wind industry should center on. It also points out that the government and enterprises should take actions simultaneously, make full use of the CDM mechanism, avoid the risk of investment and promote the industrial development in policies.
Overall, the research of this article is to enhance utilization ratio of our national electric power, to alleviate the pressure of energy supply, to reduce the damage in energy consuming to ecological environment, to realize the sustainable energy development, to promote the Low Carbon Economy, which exerts the essential theoretical and practical significance, and has provided the strategic references for our government and enterprises in wind power industry.
首先,通过对我国能源结构的分析,指出低碳经济是优化能源结构,实现能源可持续发展的必由之路,风电是发展低碳经济的最佳新能源。再者,本文在国内外风电产业发展现状的基础上,利用模糊理论、产业竞争力相关理论对风电产业的竞争优势进行详尽的分析,并探讨了风电产业对持续发展的贡献,同时提出提升风电产业竞争力的竞争策略。最后本文在以上综合分析的基础上,以发展战略的眼光展开了风电产业运营策略、技术创新模式和投资发展策略的研究:分析了风电成本影响因素和定价机理,发现其存在问题及成因,并针对我国风电产业运营存在的风险和障碍,提出相应规避风险的运营策略;分析了产业发展阶段技术创新的特点,提出我国风电技术必须走以模仿创新为主,率先创新为辅的技术创新模式;从时间角度运用灰色理论预测风电发展趋势和从空间角度运用聚类理论分析了重点投资区域,运用经验学习曲线模型预测成本变化,并且结合风电产业投资综合分析,提出了相关投资策略。
In the contemporary society, Low Carbon Economy has been the common issue concerned by increasingly more countries around the world as the optimal economic model choice against global warming. The Scientific Outlook on Development proposed by President Hu means“putting people first and aiming at comprehensive, coordinated and sustainable development”, which simultaneously indicates the direction in China for the development of Low Carbon Economy and the fruition of sustainable development. The Low Carbon Economy is a brand-new subject for both home and abroad which betokening one kind of future economic development model, as essence of which the reasonable energy structure will be established via the decrease of energy consuming and reduction of contamination discharges, and the crux depends on the innovations in both technologies and systems. The Low Carbon Economy is not only the theoretical basis for creation of energy low-carbon economic community, but also the embodiment of circular economy, the guarantee of energy sustainable development, and the crucial motivation for the exploration of new energy.
Energy is the considerable material base of economic development and social progress as an important factor which affects our living environment. At present, the energy structure dominated by the coal resources is unreasonable and low efficiency, which restricts the sustainable development seriously and cannot fulfill the requirements of Low Carbon Economy. Since it is the crucial pathway to develop new energy such as wind electricity to realize the Low Carton Economy and to optimize the energy structure, we must promote new energies deliberately including wind power, optimize the energy structure and guarantee the energy sustainable development. Today the plan about to develop renewable resources of energy has been incorporated in our long-term development strategy program, which ensures advantages in the development of wind power industry.
Up till now, the scholars both home and abroad have made numerous researches on the related fields of wind power, but most of them are confined to the simple introduction or the analysis about some substructure of whole industry. It is rather seldom that a research has been proposed systematic strategy advices through deep research on the development of our national wind power industry, especially from the angle of Low Carbon Economy, therefore the research field is almost blank now, and the issue presented by this paper has a significant research value. Consequently, according to the principle of the integration of theory with practice, this dissertation takes the Low Carbon Economy as the breakthrough point with the aid of some related theories, such as industrial economics, the circular economy, the technological innovation theory etc, thereby regarding the wind power industry in new electric energy field as the main study object to make the quota and the qualitative researches on the industrial level for the wind power industry’s development.
The theoretical basis of this article includes the industrial development theory, the sustainable development theory, the circular economy and the technological innovation theory. The industrial evolution process is the industrial structure rationalization along with the optimal process, and its development should insist on the sustainable development as the core thought with protection resources and ecological environment as well, and exert beneficial influence on the offspring’s survival and development. The circular economy is a gigantic system that involves the economy, technologies, and the environment ecology, while the“3R”is the crux of the circulation economical principles, which means its development needs support from the technical system. The technological innovation theory is the rationale of technological development for the wind power industry.
Based on the above listed theories, this article starts analyzing the national energy structure and the current situation of wind electric industry on the view of Low Carbon Economy. Through the analysis of national energy structure and Low Carbon Economy with the means of grey relational grade and energy modulus of elasticity the article concludes that the features representing our national heavy industry phase are quite clear, with the unreasonable energy structure dominated by the coal, lacking the clean energy, exert detrimental influence to facilitate Low Carbon Economy and sustainable development. Thus the energy structure needs to be optimized. To develop the Low Carbon Economy is the only way to optimize the energy structure, to realize the energy sustainable development, and it fulfills the embodiment of the circular economy, while the wind electricity is the optimum new energy to develop the Low Carbon Economy.
Through the analysis of the current situation of the domestic and foreign wind power industry development, the article find out the potential and the disparity of our national industry that our industrial potential is considerable, but regarding about wind power industry going scale and localization, it is still urgent to be intensified with techniques to be improved, and the policies and regulations correlated to the market mechanism need to be consummated.
The article discovers that the wind power is the aim of good CDM projects as the main force of the Low Carbon Economy by the analysis of competitive edge and the whole social economic benefit combined with the fuzzy theory. The wind power has the lowest social total cost and the favorable social economy benefits, which will contribute to the environment protection, electricity economy, and social green employment along with years. The article analyzes the competitive edge of wind power industry with the industrial competition correlated theories, such as SWOT analysis, diamond competition model, and concludes the core competition advantage in the investment and innovation, which leads to a series of strategy advices to promote the national wind power industry, for instances, to improve the development of higher hierarchy production elements, to enhance the development of relating industries, to set up the reasonable market competition mechanism, to strengthen the cooperation among enterprises, to grasp opportunities and contribute fully to the support of government in economics.
The article has analyzed the situations of industrial operation, the cost structure, the current state of wind power price and the pricing setting mechanism. Then the conclusion reaches that with the enhancement of the large going scale and localization degree, the wind electricity cost will drop gradually, and its efficiency will appear along with the time, in which the primary factors restricting the cost including the national policy, the extent of going scale and equipment localization, and loan tenure etc.; the loan tenure exerts crucial influence on the wind electricity cost setting price (the lowest operation price for the enterprise): the repaying term to be longer, the cost price setting will be lower, and the higher investment returns ratio will be gain by enterprises. After that, the article analyzes the risks and barriers in the wind power industry operation, and proposes the risk aversion operation strategy: to establish the reasonable market mechanism and consummate related industrial policy; to enhance the degree of the large going scale and localization; to cultivate steady market; to improve the circumstances for developing the low-carbon industry, and to establish green power market.
With the study on present situation of technology in national wind power industry and the development trend, the article finds that our technological innovation lies in the transition stage between the innovation formative period and the innovation expansion period. It shows that in the present stage the technological innovation of the national wind power industry must follow the process pattern of technical and market interaction innovation. Further more, the article simultaneously proposes the wind power industry technological innovation strategy conceptions conceiving for the initial state, metaphase and long-dated, which also puts forward the present strategy of technological innovation: namely that our national wind power industry should maximize the foreign technology acquisition, digestion and absorption, following along the independent innovation pathway on which the imitation innovation plays primary role with complete innovation as an auxiliary way.
Based on the analysis of wind power industry investment situation, the article discovers the restriction obstacles such as the investment risk of sheep effect and the unreasonable market pricing mechanism, though the national wind power industry investment increase rapidly. Furthermore, from the angles of time and space the article utilizes the theories of Grey theory and systematic cluster analysis to predict the trend of wind power development, pointing out that national wind power industry are entering accelerating developing phase. The Inner Mongolia, Hebei, Liaoning and Jilin belong to the optimal regions to invest. Then, it uses the experience learning curve theory to analyze the national wind power industry cost of investment change, which pointes out that per kilowatt cost of investment for the wind power will reduce along with the installed capacity increasing, and the proportion of the wind power equipment price accounts for whole investment will drop too. The article also predicts that in the several years, the price differences among the wind power, the thermal power generation and the hydroelectric power will reduce gradually.
Finally, this article carries on the comprehensive analysis on the possibility of wind power industrial profit, the growth potential, anti-risk ability, and concludes that our industry is located in the profession of high return of investment, and has quite good prospects for development with long duration. At last, this article proposes the projects, the products and regions that the wind industry should center on. It also points out that the government and enterprises should take actions simultaneously, make full use of the CDM mechanism, avoid the risk of investment and promote the industrial development in policies.
Overall, the research of this article is to enhance utilization ratio of our national electric power, to alleviate the pressure of energy supply, to reduce the damage in energy consuming to ecological environment, to realize the sustainable energy development, to promote the Low Carbon Economy, which exerts the essential theoretical and practical significance, and has provided the strategic references for our government and enterprises in wind power industry.
引文
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[1]蕾切尔·卡逊.寂静的春天[M].长春:吉林人民出版社,1997.
[2]朱亚杰,孙兴文.能源的几个概念[J].太阳能,2003,2:14.
[3]世纪议程联合国环境与发展大会(UNCED).迈向二十一世纪--里约宣言[M].北京:中国环境科学出版社,1992.
[4]庄贵阳.中国经济低碳发展的途径与潜力分析[J].国际技术经济研究,2005,11:21-26.
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