动态联盟风险识别、评估及防控研究
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摘要
随着信息网络技术的突飞猛进和市场环境的多变,对市场机遇的快速响应成为当今企业竞争的焦点;同时,随着竞争的加剧,越来越多的企业意识到:单凭自身的力量已难以成功把握市场机遇。企业需要整合外部资源来弥补自身的不足,在此背景下,动态联盟已成为企业整合外部资源的理想组织形式。
动态联盟组织形式有其自身的优点,但其成员主体多元性、地域分散性、组织临时性等特点,也使其具有比单体企业更复杂的风险,实践表明,该组织形式运用成功的比率并不高,其风险问题以及由此带来的负面影响不容忽视。令人遗憾的是:目前动态联盟风险管理问题并未引起人们的足够重视,企业实践中普遍存的扩大市场占有率的思想使其忽视了动态联盟组织形式中存在的风险,而导致企业合作中产生许多不必要的损失。理论界,对动态联盟的研究多集中于其组建、运行机制以及支持性技术等方面,虽然也有探讨动态联盟风险问题的相关文献,但大多是针对单一风险或是某些风险问题而提出的防控方法及对策措施,缺少针对性、专题性的研究工作,尚未形成系统的动态联盟风险管理理论和方法体系。
鉴于此,本文将风险管理理论与动态联盟管理理论相融合,在现有研究的基础上,以“动态联盟风险识别、评估及防控研究”作为研究选题,主要研究内容和成果如下:
(1)动态联盟风险管理过程框架和动态管理模式的构建。基于一般风险管理理论,将动态联盟风险管理过程划分为风险识别、风险评估和风险防控三部分;针对该过程框架,设计了动态的风险管理模式。
(2)风险识别与统计分析基础上,面向全生命周期的动态联盟风险评估指标体系的构建。基于现有文献研究成果及企业访谈,对面向全生命周期的制造业动态联盟共性风险因素进行分阶段识别假设,通过样本调查和统计分析,证实了识别假设所选取的指标的内部一致性,从而明确了动态联盟风险体系的结构。在此基础上,初步形成动态联盟风险评估指标体系,并基于粗糙集理论对指标体系进行优化,最终形成包含7个风险因子具体27个风险子指标的风险评估指标体系。
(3)基于RS理论和AHP组合定权的动态联盟模糊综合评估模型的构建。以优化后的动态联盟风险评估指标体系为基础,构建模糊综合评估模型,对动态联盟的总体风险水平和关键风险因素进行确定。在模糊综合评估模型中,基于RS理论确定客观权重,基于AHP方法确定主观权重,集成二者获得各指标的组合权重。
(4)动态联盟风险管理组织体系和组织模式的设计。基于动态联盟组织结构的一般模型和全面风险管理的思路,构建了动态联盟风险管理组织体系,并设计了相应的组织模式。
With the rapid development of information network technology and the ever-changing market environment, responding quickly to market opportunities has become the focus of the competition of enterprises; at the same time, more and more enterprises realize that it has become difficult to grasp market opportunity successfully only by itself since the competition grew, and it is necessary for an enterprise to make up for its lack of resources by integrating external resources. DA (Dynamic Alliance) has become the ideal form of organization.
The form of DA has many advantages, but its characteristics of organization temporariness, multi-stakeholders, as well as geographic dispersion of membership also make it have more risks than a single enterprise. In the practice, the ratio that this organization form is successful used is not high. The risk problem of DA, as well as its negative impact can not be ignored. Unfortunately, the risk problem of DA has not arouse sufficient attention of peoples: the thought of quickly expanding market share makes some enterprises ignore the existence of risks of DA, and the actual result is that the members bear many unnecessary losses in the process of cooperation. In theoretical circles, the researches on DA mainly focus on its construction, operational mechanism, and supportive techniques. Although there are literatures which explore the issue of DA, most of them are prevention methods and countermeasures on a single risk or some risks, system of theory and method of risk management of DA has not formed yet.
In view of this, integrating the risk management theory with DA management theory, this dissertation took "research on risk identification, assessment and prevention of DA" as research subjects on the basis of the existing research. The main research contents and results are as follows:
(1) Construction of risk management process framework and dynamic management mode. Based on the general theory of risk management, the process of risk management of DA was divided into three parts in this dissertation, which were: risk identification, risk assessment and risk prevention. The dynamic management mode of risk was also designed aiming at this framework.
(2) Construction of index system of risk assessment of DA facing the entire life cycle on the basis of risk identification and empirical Analysis. Based on the existing literature and research achievements, as well as enterprise interviews, the common factors of risk of DA is identified and assumed. Through samples surveys and statistical analysis, the internal consistency of these common factors was confirmed, and the risk system structure of DA was defined. On the basis, the index system of risk assessment was formed initially. Based on rough set (RS) theory, the index system was optimized, and ultimately the index system of risk assessment was formed, which included seven risk factors and twenty-seven specific sub-indicators.
(3) Construction of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model on risk of DA, and the weight was determined based on RS theory and AHR The model was used to assessment the overall risk level and identifies key risk factors. By this model, we can determine the objective weight on the basis of RS theory, and subjective one on the basis of AHP, and assess the combined weights by combining the two results.
(4) Design on organization system and organization pattern of risk management of DA. Based on the general model of organization structure and the idea of Enterprise Risk Management (ERM), the organization system of risk management of DA was built, and the organization modes were designed.
动态联盟组织形式有其自身的优点,但其成员主体多元性、地域分散性、组织临时性等特点,也使其具有比单体企业更复杂的风险,实践表明,该组织形式运用成功的比率并不高,其风险问题以及由此带来的负面影响不容忽视。令人遗憾的是:目前动态联盟风险管理问题并未引起人们的足够重视,企业实践中普遍存的扩大市场占有率的思想使其忽视了动态联盟组织形式中存在的风险,而导致企业合作中产生许多不必要的损失。理论界,对动态联盟的研究多集中于其组建、运行机制以及支持性技术等方面,虽然也有探讨动态联盟风险问题的相关文献,但大多是针对单一风险或是某些风险问题而提出的防控方法及对策措施,缺少针对性、专题性的研究工作,尚未形成系统的动态联盟风险管理理论和方法体系。
鉴于此,本文将风险管理理论与动态联盟管理理论相融合,在现有研究的基础上,以“动态联盟风险识别、评估及防控研究”作为研究选题,主要研究内容和成果如下:
(1)动态联盟风险管理过程框架和动态管理模式的构建。基于一般风险管理理论,将动态联盟风险管理过程划分为风险识别、风险评估和风险防控三部分;针对该过程框架,设计了动态的风险管理模式。
(2)风险识别与统计分析基础上,面向全生命周期的动态联盟风险评估指标体系的构建。基于现有文献研究成果及企业访谈,对面向全生命周期的制造业动态联盟共性风险因素进行分阶段识别假设,通过样本调查和统计分析,证实了识别假设所选取的指标的内部一致性,从而明确了动态联盟风险体系的结构。在此基础上,初步形成动态联盟风险评估指标体系,并基于粗糙集理论对指标体系进行优化,最终形成包含7个风险因子具体27个风险子指标的风险评估指标体系。
(3)基于RS理论和AHP组合定权的动态联盟模糊综合评估模型的构建。以优化后的动态联盟风险评估指标体系为基础,构建模糊综合评估模型,对动态联盟的总体风险水平和关键风险因素进行确定。在模糊综合评估模型中,基于RS理论确定客观权重,基于AHP方法确定主观权重,集成二者获得各指标的组合权重。
(4)动态联盟风险管理组织体系和组织模式的设计。基于动态联盟组织结构的一般模型和全面风险管理的思路,构建了动态联盟风险管理组织体系,并设计了相应的组织模式。
With the rapid development of information network technology and the ever-changing market environment, responding quickly to market opportunities has become the focus of the competition of enterprises; at the same time, more and more enterprises realize that it has become difficult to grasp market opportunity successfully only by itself since the competition grew, and it is necessary for an enterprise to make up for its lack of resources by integrating external resources. DA (Dynamic Alliance) has become the ideal form of organization.
The form of DA has many advantages, but its characteristics of organization temporariness, multi-stakeholders, as well as geographic dispersion of membership also make it have more risks than a single enterprise. In the practice, the ratio that this organization form is successful used is not high. The risk problem of DA, as well as its negative impact can not be ignored. Unfortunately, the risk problem of DA has not arouse sufficient attention of peoples: the thought of quickly expanding market share makes some enterprises ignore the existence of risks of DA, and the actual result is that the members bear many unnecessary losses in the process of cooperation. In theoretical circles, the researches on DA mainly focus on its construction, operational mechanism, and supportive techniques. Although there are literatures which explore the issue of DA, most of them are prevention methods and countermeasures on a single risk or some risks, system of theory and method of risk management of DA has not formed yet.
In view of this, integrating the risk management theory with DA management theory, this dissertation took "research on risk identification, assessment and prevention of DA" as research subjects on the basis of the existing research. The main research contents and results are as follows:
(1) Construction of risk management process framework and dynamic management mode. Based on the general theory of risk management, the process of risk management of DA was divided into three parts in this dissertation, which were: risk identification, risk assessment and risk prevention. The dynamic management mode of risk was also designed aiming at this framework.
(2) Construction of index system of risk assessment of DA facing the entire life cycle on the basis of risk identification and empirical Analysis. Based on the existing literature and research achievements, as well as enterprise interviews, the common factors of risk of DA is identified and assumed. Through samples surveys and statistical analysis, the internal consistency of these common factors was confirmed, and the risk system structure of DA was defined. On the basis, the index system of risk assessment was formed initially. Based on rough set (RS) theory, the index system was optimized, and ultimately the index system of risk assessment was formed, which included seven risk factors and twenty-seven specific sub-indicators.
(3) Construction of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model on risk of DA, and the weight was determined based on RS theory and AHR The model was used to assessment the overall risk level and identifies key risk factors. By this model, we can determine the objective weight on the basis of RS theory, and subjective one on the basis of AHP, and assess the combined weights by combining the two results.
(4) Design on organization system and organization pattern of risk management of DA. Based on the general model of organization structure and the idea of Enterprise Risk Management (ERM), the organization system of risk management of DA was built, and the organization modes were designed.
引文
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