中国民营上市公司财务风险预警研究
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摘要
在全球金融风暴和企业经营环境幻化加剧的背景下,作为我国经济基础的民营企业面临着更多的不确定因素。民营企业能否应对这样的危机将决定企业能否在残酷的竞争中存活下来,同时也将直接影响到整个国家的经济发展和社会稳定。为此,研究企业如何控制所面临的风险以及风险的重要组成部分:财务风险,便显得异常重要。上市民营公司作为民营企业的代表,其经营业绩的好坏直接反映民营企业的经营状况,并会影响我国经济发展的方方面面。因此,研究我国民营上市公司的财务风险,并用简单实用的方法对风险进行预警,探索其财务风险的成因以及控制方法具有很大实用价值,也为其他形式的组织或企业提供有益的参考。
本文拟根据财务管理学、风险管理学和统计学的相关理论,采用定性分析和定量分析相结合的方法,结合相关企业管理理论和预警管理理论,构建基于P-S模型的我国民营上市公司财务风险预警系统。主要工作及成果如下:
(一)系统地总结了企业风险管理和财务风险预警模型研究理论框架。本文首先分析了风险要素的构成,并认为财务风险因素是企业风险的外在表现和转化形式。然后有针对性地研究了国内外关于财务风险预警模型研究的历史和现状,分析了预警模型研究存在的理论问题和实际问题,明确了本选题研究的目的、意义和方法。
(二)提出了利用了P-S可能性满意度模型对财务风险进行预警的方法。在总结了P-S模型和因子分析方法的基础上,构建了针对中国民营上市公司财务风险预警的模型。
(三)以191家民营上市公司为例进行了实证分析,对本文提出的模型进行了验证,实现了理论与实际的统一。
(四)系统地分析了中国民营企业财务风险的诱因,将这些诱因分为外部环境诱因,和内部管理经营诱因。并针对这些诱因对中国民营上市公司财务风险防范提出了一些意见和建议。
Under the background of global financial crisis and the changable business environment, China's private enterprises are facing with more and more uncertainty. Whether private enterprises can deal with such a crisis or not is a survive battle to them, and it also will affect the entire country's economic development and social stability directly. To this thought, researching firm how to control risks or financial risks will become quite important. Listed Private Company in China is in the leading role of private enterprises. Their finance operating results have a direct reflection of private enterprises and will affect all aspects of China's economic development. Therefore, the study of various risks which China's private listed company may face with, and apply a more practical approach to analyze, measure and explore its methods of controlling that kind of financial risk has a great value for all forms of organizations or enterprises in China.
Comprehensive using research paradigms of comprehensive use of management and risk management, using thinking and methods of system science for reference, taking finance risk early warning of China's private listed companies as the research object , integrating qualitative and quantitative, deduction and induction, empirical study and standard, this paper tries to establish a risk early warning Mode based on P-S Method, and then gives the finance risk management methods. The main work and achievements are as follows:
(A) This paper put forwards of an overview of enterprise risk management and financial risk early-warning model theoretical framework. It analyzed the composition of the risk factors and indicated that the financial risk factors are the external manifestations of enterprise risk and its transformation. Then, it targeted at the financial risk early-warning model both home and aboard. It analysis both of the theoretical and practical problems of existing early-warning model , clearly indicates the significance and practice of this paper.
(B) This paper proposed the use of the P-S (possibility and satisfaction) model for financial risk early warning methods. This paper built a financial risk early warning model based on PS model using factor analysis for the China's private listed companies.
(C) This paper used 191 private listed companies in China as an example of the empirical analysis. So, it presented the unity of theory and practice.
(D) This paper analyzed the causes of Chinese private enterprise financial risk incentives, these causes are divided into the external environment and internal management failure. This paper also made a number of comments and suggestions according to these causes in order to prevent the finance risk of China's private listed companies.
本文拟根据财务管理学、风险管理学和统计学的相关理论,采用定性分析和定量分析相结合的方法,结合相关企业管理理论和预警管理理论,构建基于P-S模型的我国民营上市公司财务风险预警系统。主要工作及成果如下:
(一)系统地总结了企业风险管理和财务风险预警模型研究理论框架。本文首先分析了风险要素的构成,并认为财务风险因素是企业风险的外在表现和转化形式。然后有针对性地研究了国内外关于财务风险预警模型研究的历史和现状,分析了预警模型研究存在的理论问题和实际问题,明确了本选题研究的目的、意义和方法。
(二)提出了利用了P-S可能性满意度模型对财务风险进行预警的方法。在总结了P-S模型和因子分析方法的基础上,构建了针对中国民营上市公司财务风险预警的模型。
(三)以191家民营上市公司为例进行了实证分析,对本文提出的模型进行了验证,实现了理论与实际的统一。
(四)系统地分析了中国民营企业财务风险的诱因,将这些诱因分为外部环境诱因,和内部管理经营诱因。并针对这些诱因对中国民营上市公司财务风险防范提出了一些意见和建议。
Under the background of global financial crisis and the changable business environment, China's private enterprises are facing with more and more uncertainty. Whether private enterprises can deal with such a crisis or not is a survive battle to them, and it also will affect the entire country's economic development and social stability directly. To this thought, researching firm how to control risks or financial risks will become quite important. Listed Private Company in China is in the leading role of private enterprises. Their finance operating results have a direct reflection of private enterprises and will affect all aspects of China's economic development. Therefore, the study of various risks which China's private listed company may face with, and apply a more practical approach to analyze, measure and explore its methods of controlling that kind of financial risk has a great value for all forms of organizations or enterprises in China.
Comprehensive using research paradigms of comprehensive use of management and risk management, using thinking and methods of system science for reference, taking finance risk early warning of China's private listed companies as the research object , integrating qualitative and quantitative, deduction and induction, empirical study and standard, this paper tries to establish a risk early warning Mode based on P-S Method, and then gives the finance risk management methods. The main work and achievements are as follows:
(A) This paper put forwards of an overview of enterprise risk management and financial risk early-warning model theoretical framework. It analyzed the composition of the risk factors and indicated that the financial risk factors are the external manifestations of enterprise risk and its transformation. Then, it targeted at the financial risk early-warning model both home and aboard. It analysis both of the theoretical and practical problems of existing early-warning model , clearly indicates the significance and practice of this paper.
(B) This paper proposed the use of the P-S (possibility and satisfaction) model for financial risk early warning methods. This paper built a financial risk early warning model based on PS model using factor analysis for the China's private listed companies.
(C) This paper used 191 private listed companies in China as an example of the empirical analysis. So, it presented the unity of theory and practice.
(D) This paper analyzed the causes of Chinese private enterprise financial risk incentives, these causes are divided into the external environment and internal management failure. This paper also made a number of comments and suggestions according to these causes in order to prevent the finance risk of China's private listed companies.
引文
[1]奈特弗兰克H..风险、不确定性与利润[M].北京:商务印书馆,2006.
[2]王维才,戴淑芬,肖玉新.投资项目可行性分析与项目管理[M].冶金工业出版社,2000:101~104.
[3]尹淑平.借鉴COSO风险管理理论提高我国税收遵从风险管理水[J].税务研究. 2008(12): 69-71
[4] William F. Sharpe, Gordon J. Alexander, Feffrey V. Bailey, Investments, Fifth Edition [M], Prentice-Hall International, Inc. 1995, :1021
[5] Fitzpatrick,P.J.. A Comparison of Ratios of Successful Industrial Enterprises with Those of Failed Firms[J]. Certified Public Accountant,1932(2):589-605,656-662.
[6] Beaver,W.H. Financial Ratios as Predictors of Failure, Empirical Research in Accounting[J]. Supplement to Journal of Accounting Research,1966(4):71-111.
[7] Altman,E.I,Financial Ratios. Discriminant Analysis and Prediction of Corporate Bankruptcy[J]. Journal of Finance,1968(9):589-609.
[8] Altman,E.I.,Haldeman,R.C.,and Narayanan,P.. Zeta Analysis:A New Model to Identify Bankruptcy Risk of Corporation[J]. Journal of Banking and Finance,1977(1):29-54.
[9]周首华等.论财务危机的预警分析—F分数模式[J].会计研究,1996(8):8-11.
[10]陈静.上市公司财务恶化预测的实证分析[J].会计研究,1999(4):31-38
[11]张玲.财务危机预警分析判别模型及其应用[J].预测,2000(6):38-40.
[12] Ohlson J..Financial Ratios and Probabilistic Prediction of Bankruptcy[J]. Journal of Accounting Research. Sping.1980,1:109-130
[13] Martin D..Early warning of bank failure:a logistic regression approach[J]. Journal of Banking and Finance.1977,:249-276
[14] Mark E.Zmijewski,Methodological Issues Related to the Estimation of Prediction Models[J]. Journal of Accounting Research,1984,Vol.22 :59-86.
[15]张祥,陈荣秋.财务预警模型的变迁[J].华中科技大学学报.2003,4 :73-76
[16]张瀛,王浣尘. PS辅助决策系统的开发与应用[J].系统工程理论方法应用,2002,11(4):324~329
[17]张瀛,王浣尘.货币危机预警综合评价方法研究[J].统计研究, 2004, 7 :31~37
[18]陈卫华,张睿.基于“可能-满意度”法的金融危机预警系统的构建与应用[J].国际金融研究,2007(4) :51-55
[19]鲍鹏.基于支持向量机模型的上市公司财务预警研究[D].硕士学位论文编号:1028709 07-0112, 2007,:26~27
[20]叶宗裕.关于多指标综合评价中指标正向化和无量纲化方法的选择[J].浙江统计, 2003;(4): 24-25
[21]朱孔来.评价指标的非线性无量纲模糊处理方法.统计与信息论坛[J],1997;(3):10-14
[22]江苏琼花高科技股份有限公司关于为撤销退市风险警示采取的措施,中国证券网-上海证券报,http://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/t/20091015/01556840405.shtml
[23] https://www.qin.bvdep.com/ip. Qin《中国企业财务信息分析库》.
[24] Asch, D., Levy, D.T., Shea, D. and Bodenhorn, H., Risk compensation and the effectiveness of safety belt use laws: a case study of New Jersey[J], Policy Sciences, Vol. 24, 1991, :181-97.
[25] Hambly, E.C. and Hambly, E.A..“Risk evaluation and realism, proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers”[J]. Civil Engineering, Vol. 102 No. 2, 1994, :64-71.
[26]孔杰,王洪伟. 2007中国上市公司风险管理调查与分析——基于COSO ERM整合框架[J].国家行政学院学报,2008(3)
[27]亨利·明茨伯格.战略历程——纵览战略管理学派[M].刘瑞红等译.机械工业出版社,2002
[28]张英.民营企业财务风险管理问题研究[J].经营管理,2007(2)
[29]秦江萍,强锦.民营企业财务风险的成因与防范[J].现代管理科学,2005 (6)
[30]邓传洲,李正.论非金融类公司年度报告中的风险信息披露[J].会计研究,2003,(8):19-22.
[31]龚茂全.基于杠杆理论的公司财务风险控制研究[D].湖南大学,2007
[32]范霍恩J.C.,瓦霍维奇J.M..现代企业财务管理(第十一版)[M].郭浩译.经济科学出版社,2002
[33] Day G.S.,Reibstein D.J.,Gunther R.E..动态竞争战略[M].孟立慧,顾勇,龙炼译.上海交通大学出版社,2003
[34]林詹姆斯.企业全面风险管理[M].黄长全译.中国金融出版社,2006
[2]王维才,戴淑芬,肖玉新.投资项目可行性分析与项目管理[M].冶金工业出版社,2000:101~104.
[3]尹淑平.借鉴COSO风险管理理论提高我国税收遵从风险管理水[J].税务研究. 2008(12): 69-71
[4] William F. Sharpe, Gordon J. Alexander, Feffrey V. Bailey, Investments, Fifth Edition [M], Prentice-Hall International, Inc. 1995, :1021
[5] Fitzpatrick,P.J.. A Comparison of Ratios of Successful Industrial Enterprises with Those of Failed Firms[J]. Certified Public Accountant,1932(2):589-605,656-662.
[6] Beaver,W.H. Financial Ratios as Predictors of Failure, Empirical Research in Accounting[J]. Supplement to Journal of Accounting Research,1966(4):71-111.
[7] Altman,E.I,Financial Ratios. Discriminant Analysis and Prediction of Corporate Bankruptcy[J]. Journal of Finance,1968(9):589-609.
[8] Altman,E.I.,Haldeman,R.C.,and Narayanan,P.. Zeta Analysis:A New Model to Identify Bankruptcy Risk of Corporation[J]. Journal of Banking and Finance,1977(1):29-54.
[9]周首华等.论财务危机的预警分析—F分数模式[J].会计研究,1996(8):8-11.
[10]陈静.上市公司财务恶化预测的实证分析[J].会计研究,1999(4):31-38
[11]张玲.财务危机预警分析判别模型及其应用[J].预测,2000(6):38-40.
[12] Ohlson J..Financial Ratios and Probabilistic Prediction of Bankruptcy[J]. Journal of Accounting Research. Sping.1980,1:109-130
[13] Martin D..Early warning of bank failure:a logistic regression approach[J]. Journal of Banking and Finance.1977,:249-276
[14] Mark E.Zmijewski,Methodological Issues Related to the Estimation of Prediction Models[J]. Journal of Accounting Research,1984,Vol.22 :59-86.
[15]张祥,陈荣秋.财务预警模型的变迁[J].华中科技大学学报.2003,4 :73-76
[16]张瀛,王浣尘. PS辅助决策系统的开发与应用[J].系统工程理论方法应用,2002,11(4):324~329
[17]张瀛,王浣尘.货币危机预警综合评价方法研究[J].统计研究, 2004, 7 :31~37
[18]陈卫华,张睿.基于“可能-满意度”法的金融危机预警系统的构建与应用[J].国际金融研究,2007(4) :51-55
[19]鲍鹏.基于支持向量机模型的上市公司财务预警研究[D].硕士学位论文编号:1028709 07-0112, 2007,:26~27
[20]叶宗裕.关于多指标综合评价中指标正向化和无量纲化方法的选择[J].浙江统计, 2003;(4): 24-25
[21]朱孔来.评价指标的非线性无量纲模糊处理方法.统计与信息论坛[J],1997;(3):10-14
[22]江苏琼花高科技股份有限公司关于为撤销退市风险警示采取的措施,中国证券网-上海证券报,http://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/t/20091015/01556840405.shtml
[23] https://www.qin.bvdep.com/ip. Qin《中国企业财务信息分析库》.
[24] Asch, D., Levy, D.T., Shea, D. and Bodenhorn, H., Risk compensation and the effectiveness of safety belt use laws: a case study of New Jersey[J], Policy Sciences, Vol. 24, 1991, :181-97.
[25] Hambly, E.C. and Hambly, E.A..“Risk evaluation and realism, proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers”[J]. Civil Engineering, Vol. 102 No. 2, 1994, :64-71.
[26]孔杰,王洪伟. 2007中国上市公司风险管理调查与分析——基于COSO ERM整合框架[J].国家行政学院学报,2008(3)
[27]亨利·明茨伯格.战略历程——纵览战略管理学派[M].刘瑞红等译.机械工业出版社,2002
[28]张英.民营企业财务风险管理问题研究[J].经营管理,2007(2)
[29]秦江萍,强锦.民营企业财务风险的成因与防范[J].现代管理科学,2005 (6)
[30]邓传洲,李正.论非金融类公司年度报告中的风险信息披露[J].会计研究,2003,(8):19-22.
[31]龚茂全.基于杠杆理论的公司财务风险控制研究[D].湖南大学,2007
[32]范霍恩J.C.,瓦霍维奇J.M..现代企业财务管理(第十一版)[M].郭浩译.经济科学出版社,2002
[33] Day G.S.,Reibstein D.J.,Gunther R.E..动态竞争战略[M].孟立慧,顾勇,龙炼译.上海交通大学出版社,2003
[34]林詹姆斯.企业全面风险管理[M].黄长全译.中国金融出版社,2006