基于综合承载力的吉林省适度人口研究
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摘要
人类社会发展中每一个历史时期必然存在一个适度的人口,以便和该国的经济发展水平、自然资源的多寡以及生态系统的负载能力保持平衡,以保证人类社会的可持续发展。人口过剩或不足,都会阻抗人口、经济与资源环境的协调发展。因此,适度人口是客观的,也是不容置疑的。
本文从系统整体性出发,以资源决定供给为立论基础,将人口、资源与环境看作一个互相影响与作用的整体,通过对适度人口、承载力等概念及内涵的剖析,深入探讨了适度人口与承载力的作用机制,界定了综合承载力的概念,系统剖析了综合承载力内涵、特征和影响因素。尝试利用系统状态空间法,从综合承载力角度构建区域适度人口测度模型。结合吉林省现实条件,对影响适度人口因素进行分析,并根据各因子属性和其间相互影响强弱,确定适度人口评价指标体系,利用主成分分析法和熵权法确定权重,实现了区域适度人口定量化研究,克服了基于单一要素承载力测度适度人口的片面性。在此基础上从时空角度测算了吉林省适度人口,对结果进行分析,探讨形成原因,提出相应对策。
There must be a moderate population in each historical development period of human society, so as to keep balance with one country’s economic development level, the amount of natural resources and carrying capacity of ecological system, and ensure the sustainable development of human society. Overpopulation or insufficient, can impede the harmonious development of population, economy and society. Therefore, optimum population is objective and beyond all doubt.
A country with a vast territory and large population has different natural condition, social and economic development level. Therefore, it’s hard to reflect and certainty the coordination and allocation relationship between regional population, resources and environment, and the complexity of their interaction and disparity development. So, researching the special regional optimum population is more meaningful.
Based on abundant coal, iron, forest resources, and the long-term national key investment, Jilin industrial base has appeared the mismatch between population, resources distribution and economic development, and the long-term extensive development, unreasonable resources utilization, and low utilization efficiency has resulted in vulnerable ecological environment, heavy soil erosion, water shortage, the marked contradiction between human and land, etc. It has become the bottleneck of rapid development of Jilin province. Under such a background, researching regional optimum population is not only have the pressing realistic meaning and profound historic significance, but also have some reference meaning for less development regions to choose their population development mode.
Started from systemic integrity, based on resources deciding demand, regarding population, resources and environment as an interactive unity, this paper discusses the function mechanism of comprehensive capacity and optimum population, and constructs a calculation model about regional optimum population by using systemic state-space method from the angle of comprehensive carrying capacity. And combined with actual Jilin province, this paper analyzes the influence factors of optimum population, determines the index system according to these factors’attributes and their mutual influence, and realizes the quantitative research on regional optimum population by using the principal component analysis and the entropy weight, which overcome the one-sidedness that single factor carrying capacity assessment about optimum population. On this base, this paper calculates the optimum population in Jilin province from temporal and spatial dimension, analyzes and discusses their causes, and puts forward the corresponding countermeasures.
The main contents are follows:
1.Beginning with the research background, this paper demonstrates the theoretical significance and practical value of optimum population research, summarizes systemically the current research state at home and abroad, objectively analyzes and evaluates its advantages and disadvantages, on this basis, presents the research contents, methods and ideas.
2. Based on the previous theoretical research achievements about optimum population, through the analysis about concept and connotation of optimum population and carrying capacity, this paper probes into the function mechanism of optimum population and carrying capacity, defines the concept of comprehensive carrying capacity, and analyzes systematically its connotation, characteristic and the influence factors and measuring method. Now, comprehensive carrying capacity has not only become one of the main study directions of coordinating conflict between human social and economic development and resources and ecological environment, and seeking the regional sustainable development, but also provided a new breakthrough, idea and method for studying regional optimum population.
3. By using the systemic state-space method, the author constructs a regional optimum population model based on comprehensive carrying capacity from three-dimensional perspective of resources carrying population, economic carrying population and ecological carrying population. Combined with actual Jilin province, the author analyzes the influence factors of optimum population, determines the index system according to these factors’attributes and their mutual influence and the index weight by using the principal component analysis and the entropy weight. And then, determining the calculating method of optimum population based on the comprehensive carrying capacity in Jilin province.
4. For further study on the optimum population in Jilin province, the author analyzes systematically the present state of population, resources and environment from the perspective of population system, resources and environment system and economic system, probes into the relationship between resources and environment change and population and economic development.
5.By using the aforesaid calculating method, this paper calculates the optimum population in Jilin province from the year of 1978 to 2006; and in order to research the spatial and temporal dynamic change and differences of optimum population, the author calculates the optimum population of all prefecture-level city from the year of 1997 to 2006. The result displays that the population has been keeping overloaded, and still has rising trend, which shows that, in Jilin province, the population, resources and environment are in a state of unsustainable development.
6.In order to further understand the difference of comprehensive carrying population capacity of all prefecture-level cities, the author builds the matching type of land resources carrying population-economic resources carrying population-ecological resources carrying population–comprehensive carrying population, and analyzes the spatial difference of optimum population in all prefecture-level cities in 2006 by using population pressure index.
7. The research purpose is to understand the relationship between the optimum population and actual population, regulate and control the actual population. In order to improve the comprehensive carrying capacity, this paper brings forward some countermeasures from the two aspects of increasing the optimum population density and reducing population pressure, such as to control population scale, to optimize the spatial population structure and improve regional population support ability, and so on.
本文从系统整体性出发,以资源决定供给为立论基础,将人口、资源与环境看作一个互相影响与作用的整体,通过对适度人口、承载力等概念及内涵的剖析,深入探讨了适度人口与承载力的作用机制,界定了综合承载力的概念,系统剖析了综合承载力内涵、特征和影响因素。尝试利用系统状态空间法,从综合承载力角度构建区域适度人口测度模型。结合吉林省现实条件,对影响适度人口因素进行分析,并根据各因子属性和其间相互影响强弱,确定适度人口评价指标体系,利用主成分分析法和熵权法确定权重,实现了区域适度人口定量化研究,克服了基于单一要素承载力测度适度人口的片面性。在此基础上从时空角度测算了吉林省适度人口,对结果进行分析,探讨形成原因,提出相应对策。
There must be a moderate population in each historical development period of human society, so as to keep balance with one country’s economic development level, the amount of natural resources and carrying capacity of ecological system, and ensure the sustainable development of human society. Overpopulation or insufficient, can impede the harmonious development of population, economy and society. Therefore, optimum population is objective and beyond all doubt.
A country with a vast territory and large population has different natural condition, social and economic development level. Therefore, it’s hard to reflect and certainty the coordination and allocation relationship between regional population, resources and environment, and the complexity of their interaction and disparity development. So, researching the special regional optimum population is more meaningful.
Based on abundant coal, iron, forest resources, and the long-term national key investment, Jilin industrial base has appeared the mismatch between population, resources distribution and economic development, and the long-term extensive development, unreasonable resources utilization, and low utilization efficiency has resulted in vulnerable ecological environment, heavy soil erosion, water shortage, the marked contradiction between human and land, etc. It has become the bottleneck of rapid development of Jilin province. Under such a background, researching regional optimum population is not only have the pressing realistic meaning and profound historic significance, but also have some reference meaning for less development regions to choose their population development mode.
Started from systemic integrity, based on resources deciding demand, regarding population, resources and environment as an interactive unity, this paper discusses the function mechanism of comprehensive capacity and optimum population, and constructs a calculation model about regional optimum population by using systemic state-space method from the angle of comprehensive carrying capacity. And combined with actual Jilin province, this paper analyzes the influence factors of optimum population, determines the index system according to these factors’attributes and their mutual influence, and realizes the quantitative research on regional optimum population by using the principal component analysis and the entropy weight, which overcome the one-sidedness that single factor carrying capacity assessment about optimum population. On this base, this paper calculates the optimum population in Jilin province from temporal and spatial dimension, analyzes and discusses their causes, and puts forward the corresponding countermeasures.
The main contents are follows:
1.Beginning with the research background, this paper demonstrates the theoretical significance and practical value of optimum population research, summarizes systemically the current research state at home and abroad, objectively analyzes and evaluates its advantages and disadvantages, on this basis, presents the research contents, methods and ideas.
2. Based on the previous theoretical research achievements about optimum population, through the analysis about concept and connotation of optimum population and carrying capacity, this paper probes into the function mechanism of optimum population and carrying capacity, defines the concept of comprehensive carrying capacity, and analyzes systematically its connotation, characteristic and the influence factors and measuring method. Now, comprehensive carrying capacity has not only become one of the main study directions of coordinating conflict between human social and economic development and resources and ecological environment, and seeking the regional sustainable development, but also provided a new breakthrough, idea and method for studying regional optimum population.
3. By using the systemic state-space method, the author constructs a regional optimum population model based on comprehensive carrying capacity from three-dimensional perspective of resources carrying population, economic carrying population and ecological carrying population. Combined with actual Jilin province, the author analyzes the influence factors of optimum population, determines the index system according to these factors’attributes and their mutual influence and the index weight by using the principal component analysis and the entropy weight. And then, determining the calculating method of optimum population based on the comprehensive carrying capacity in Jilin province.
4. For further study on the optimum population in Jilin province, the author analyzes systematically the present state of population, resources and environment from the perspective of population system, resources and environment system and economic system, probes into the relationship between resources and environment change and population and economic development.
5.By using the aforesaid calculating method, this paper calculates the optimum population in Jilin province from the year of 1978 to 2006; and in order to research the spatial and temporal dynamic change and differences of optimum population, the author calculates the optimum population of all prefecture-level city from the year of 1997 to 2006. The result displays that the population has been keeping overloaded, and still has rising trend, which shows that, in Jilin province, the population, resources and environment are in a state of unsustainable development.
6.In order to further understand the difference of comprehensive carrying population capacity of all prefecture-level cities, the author builds the matching type of land resources carrying population-economic resources carrying population-ecological resources carrying population–comprehensive carrying population, and analyzes the spatial difference of optimum population in all prefecture-level cities in 2006 by using population pressure index.
7. The research purpose is to understand the relationship between the optimum population and actual population, regulate and control the actual population. In order to improve the comprehensive carrying capacity, this paper brings forward some countermeasures from the two aspects of increasing the optimum population density and reducing population pressure, such as to control population scale, to optimize the spatial population structure and improve regional population support ability, and so on.
引文
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