基于农户生产行为视角的粮食补贴政策绩效研究
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摘要
国以农为本,民以食为天。对于一个拥有13亿入口的大国来说,实现粮食生产稳定增长,确保国家粮食安全,始终是我国经济发展、社会稳定和国家自立的基础。2004年以来,中央政府相继实施了包括粮食直接补贴、农资综合直接补贴、良种补贴、农机具购置补贴等一系列的政策措施,并逐年加大补贴力度,旨在保障种粮农民利益,促进粮食增产和农民增收。那么,现行粮食补贴政策能在多大程度上影响农户的粮食生产行为?促进粮食生产和农民增收的效果如何?农民对粮食补贴政策还有哪些期望和要求?尤其在目前世界粮食安全形势严峻、全球正遭遇大范围粮食危机的背景下,将现行粮食补贴政策作为研究对象,客观评价粮食补贴政策的实施效果,提出进一步完善粮食补贴政策体系的对策建议,具有十分重要的学术研究价值和现实意义。
本研究基于农户行为经济学理论,借鉴国内外相关研究成果,构建嵌入粮食补贴政策的农户生产决策行为理论模型,并运用粮食主产区安徽省农户的调查数据,实证分析粮食补贴政策对农户生产行为的影响,在此基础上,构建农户生产行为规划模型,模拟研究粮食补贴政策在补贴强度、劳动力和农资要素价格、农产品价格以及土地经营规模变化情景下对农户粮食生产和家庭收入的影响,据此客观评价粮食补贴政策的实施绩效,并借鉴发达粮食补贴政策的成功经验和现行粮食补贴政策实施中存在的问题,提出进一步完善粮食补贴政策体系的政策建议。本文的主要研究内容如下：
第一,对已有相关研究文献综述。在梳理国外有关农业补贴政策的相关研究成果的基础上,全面、系统地综述了国内有关粮食补贴政策的相关研究,提出现有研究的不足之处,明确本研究的任务、重点和方法。
第二,粮食补贴政策的改革与现状分析。回顾改革开放以来我国粮食补贴政策的变迁,重点解析我国现行粮食补贴政策出台的背景、政策目标、政策体系,并结合具体实施现状探讨了现行粮食补贴政策体系存在的主要问题。
第三,粮食补贴政策实施的微观经济分析。基于农户行为经济学的理论,构建一个嵌入粮食补贴政策的农户生产决策行为理论模型,并采用粮食主产区安徽省的农户调查数据和计量经济学模型方法,实证检验粮食补贴政策对农户种植决策、农业生产物质资本投入决策以及劳动时间分配决策的影响。
第四,粮食补贴政策绩效的模拟研究。基于粮食补贴政策对农户生产行为的影响,采用数学规划方法,以安徽省为例,通过构建不同地区典型农户的生产行为规划模型,模拟研究粮食补贴政策在补贴强度、劳动力和农资要素价格、农产品价格以及土地经营规模变化情景下对农户粮食生产和家庭收入的影响,据此客观评价粮食补贴政策的实施绩效。
第五,结论概括与对策建议。整合上述理论与实证分析结果,简要地概括本文的主要研究结论,并提出进一步完善我国粮食补贴政策体系的对策建议。
本研究结果表明：粮食补贴政策对农户增加粮食播种面积和物质资本投入具有显著的激励作用,且土地规模越大的农户显示出具有较强的增加粮食生产投入的动机,同时农民将补贴收入用于生活消费也不明显地影响农户对粮食生产投入水平,因此,不能从农户对粮食补贴收入的使用情况,判断甚至怀疑粮食补贴政策的实施效果。从对典型农户的模拟优化结果来看,与基本情景相比,低水平的提高粮食补贴标准对农户增产增收效应不明显；扩大土地经营规模和提高粮食等农产品价格,将使粮食补贴政策的增产增收效应更加明显；生产投入要素价格上涨,将显著地弱化粮食补贴政策的增产增收效应；土地经营规模大、种粮比例高的农户对粮食补贴政策变动的反应更加敏感,对粮食生产和农民家庭收入的政策影响也更大。从总体上说,农户对现行粮食补贴政策比较满意,但并不十分认同补贴的发放方式,绝大多数的农户希望按实际粮食种植面积来发放补贴,并且仍然希望粮食补贴标准能有一个较大程度的提高。
本文的主要创新之处在于：(1)在理论和实证分析粮食补贴政策对农户生产行为影响的基础上,构建农户生产行为规划模型,模拟分析了不同情景下粮食补贴政策的实施绩效,弥补了目前学术界直接从农民收入或粮食产出来评价粮食补贴政策实施绩效的研究不足；(2)本文在充分考虑粮食补贴政策对农户农业生产行为影响的同时,深入分析了粮食补贴政策诱发的农户生产要素投入尤其是非农劳动行为变化的影响及其对提高家庭收入的间接影响,这扩展了目前国内相关研究大都仅考察粮食补贴政策对农户粮食生产和种植业收入影响的研究视角；(3)本文从调查地区的现实状况出发,设置补贴强度、劳动力和农资要素价格、农产品价格以及土地经营规模等不同政策情景,分别对农户生产行为规划模型进行模拟分析,以展示粮食补贴政策的实施绩效,这不仅在方法上具有科学性,同时也使研究更具实际应用价值。
Agriculture is the basis of the country; food is the first necessity of the people. As for a big country with population of 1.3 billion, stabilize and increase grain production has always been the basis of china's economic development, social stability and national self-reliance. Since the year 2004, the central government has implemented a series of policies including grain direct subsidy, coprehensive direct subsidy, seeds subsidy and farm-machinery purchase subsidy. Government increases the subsidies every year to protect the benefits of farmers and increase grain production and family income. Therefore, to what extent that grain subsidy policies affect farmrs' grain production behavior? what effects of the existing subsidy policies on raising grain production and farmer income? What farmers'expectations and requirements on the subsidy policies? Especially in the context that the world is facing tough times of food security and experiencing large-scale food crisis, objectively evaluating the performance of grain subsidy policies and further proposing some policy suggestions on improving the grain subsidy policies, Which has very important academic research value and fundamentally application.
Based on the theory of farmers'behavior and relevant researches of domestic and foreign studies, this dissertation constructs theoretical model of farmers'behavior in production decision-making with grain subsidy policies embedded in, using the household survey data in Anhui province, empirically studies the impact of grain subsidy policies on farmers'producing behavior. On this basis, this research constructs a programming model of farmers' producing behavior and simulates the effects of grain subsidy policies on farmers'grain output and family income under the scenarios of changing intensity of grain subsidies, prices of labor and agricultural input factors, prices of agricultural outputs and the scale of land management. Accordingly, this study objectively evaluates the performance of grain subsidy policies as well as further proposes some policy suggestions on improving the policy system. The main research contents are as the follow:
The first part is the literature review. To begin with, this part summarizes foreign relevant research about agricultural subsidies; Secondly, it comments on domestic relevant research literature about grain subsidy policies. Then it points out the shortcomings of present research and puts forward the tas、the focus and methods of this study.
The second part is the reform of grain subsidy policies and the status. The paper retrospects historical changes of china's grain subsidy policies since the reform and opening-up, Then it analyses the background, objectives, system and problems of the existing grain policies during the policy implementation.
The third part is the microeconomic analysis of grain subsidy policies. Based on the farmers'behavior theories, this study constructs theoretical model of farmers' behavior in production decision-making with grain subsidy policies, analyzes the impact of grain subsidy policies on the farmers'production, through household survey data in Anhui province and constructs econometric models to empirically study the impacts of grain subsidy policies on farmers' decisions-making about plantation, investment and labor time allocation.
The fourth part is the simulation of the subsidy performance. In line with the impact of grain subsidy policies on farmers' producing behavior, the research uses mathematical programming method and constructs programming model of farmers' producing behavior to simulate the effects of grain subsidy policies on farmers' grain production and family income under different scenarios. Accordingly, Objectively evaluate the performance of grain subsidy policies from grain production and family income.
The last part is the summary of this dissertation, as well as proposals on further improvement of the grain subsidy policies.
The results show that: grain subsidy policies have significantly incentive effects on stimulating farmers to increase grain areas and material capital investment, the more land resource endowed by farmers, the stronger motives for them to increase agricultural inputs. Additionally, using grain subsidies on direct consumption does not significantly affect the level of inputs for grain production. Therefore, it can not judge even suspect the performance of grain subsidy policies from the surfacial phenomenon of using the subsidies. The simulation and optimization results show that: compared with the basic scenario, the low growth of subsidy standards has no obvious effects on grain production and family income. The effects of grain subsidy on increasing production and income are significant if there are the raises of land management scale, agricultural product prices and subsidy standards. The promotional effects of grain subsidy policies are weakened significantly if the prices of agricultural input factors rises. Farmers who have large scale of land management and high proportion of growing grain are more sensitive to the change of grain subsidy policies, and the policies'impact on grain production and family income is greater. Generally, farmers satisfied with current grain subsidy policies, but disidentify the way of payment, most farmers expect to distribute subsidies interms of the grain actual planting acreage and further raise the standards of grain subsidies to a large degree.
The main progresses of this dissertation are the follows:Based on theoretical and empirical analysis of the grain subsidy policies impacts on farmers' producing behavior, this study constructs a programming model of farmers'producing behavior to simulate the performance of grain subsidy policies under different scenarios. It breakes through current evaluation on the policy performance directly from farmers' income or grain production. Take full account of the policy impacts on farmers' agricultural producing behavior and deeply analysis the impacts of grain subsidy policies on farmers'factor inputs behavior especially on non-agricultural labor practices, and the indirect impacts on increasing family income,which expand the research perspective that current research mostly concerned with the effects of grain subsidies on grain production and farming income. Design different policy scenarios including intensity of grain subsidies, prices of labor and agricultural input factors, prices of agricultural outputs and the scale of land management based on the reality of survey area, and simulates the performance of grain subsidy policies under different scenarios,which enriches the current research scenario that mainly focus on changing intensity of grain subsidies.
本研究基于农户行为经济学理论,借鉴国内外相关研究成果,构建嵌入粮食补贴政策的农户生产决策行为理论模型,并运用粮食主产区安徽省农户的调查数据,实证分析粮食补贴政策对农户生产行为的影响,在此基础上,构建农户生产行为规划模型,模拟研究粮食补贴政策在补贴强度、劳动力和农资要素价格、农产品价格以及土地经营规模变化情景下对农户粮食生产和家庭收入的影响,据此客观评价粮食补贴政策的实施绩效,并借鉴发达粮食补贴政策的成功经验和现行粮食补贴政策实施中存在的问题,提出进一步完善粮食补贴政策体系的政策建议。本文的主要研究内容如下：
第一,对已有相关研究文献综述。在梳理国外有关农业补贴政策的相关研究成果的基础上,全面、系统地综述了国内有关粮食补贴政策的相关研究,提出现有研究的不足之处,明确本研究的任务、重点和方法。
第二,粮食补贴政策的改革与现状分析。回顾改革开放以来我国粮食补贴政策的变迁,重点解析我国现行粮食补贴政策出台的背景、政策目标、政策体系,并结合具体实施现状探讨了现行粮食补贴政策体系存在的主要问题。
第三,粮食补贴政策实施的微观经济分析。基于农户行为经济学的理论,构建一个嵌入粮食补贴政策的农户生产决策行为理论模型,并采用粮食主产区安徽省的农户调查数据和计量经济学模型方法,实证检验粮食补贴政策对农户种植决策、农业生产物质资本投入决策以及劳动时间分配决策的影响。
第四,粮食补贴政策绩效的模拟研究。基于粮食补贴政策对农户生产行为的影响,采用数学规划方法,以安徽省为例,通过构建不同地区典型农户的生产行为规划模型,模拟研究粮食补贴政策在补贴强度、劳动力和农资要素价格、农产品价格以及土地经营规模变化情景下对农户粮食生产和家庭收入的影响,据此客观评价粮食补贴政策的实施绩效。
第五,结论概括与对策建议。整合上述理论与实证分析结果,简要地概括本文的主要研究结论,并提出进一步完善我国粮食补贴政策体系的对策建议。
本研究结果表明：粮食补贴政策对农户增加粮食播种面积和物质资本投入具有显著的激励作用,且土地规模越大的农户显示出具有较强的增加粮食生产投入的动机,同时农民将补贴收入用于生活消费也不明显地影响农户对粮食生产投入水平,因此,不能从农户对粮食补贴收入的使用情况,判断甚至怀疑粮食补贴政策的实施效果。从对典型农户的模拟优化结果来看,与基本情景相比,低水平的提高粮食补贴标准对农户增产增收效应不明显；扩大土地经营规模和提高粮食等农产品价格,将使粮食补贴政策的增产增收效应更加明显；生产投入要素价格上涨,将显著地弱化粮食补贴政策的增产增收效应；土地经营规模大、种粮比例高的农户对粮食补贴政策变动的反应更加敏感,对粮食生产和农民家庭收入的政策影响也更大。从总体上说,农户对现行粮食补贴政策比较满意,但并不十分认同补贴的发放方式,绝大多数的农户希望按实际粮食种植面积来发放补贴,并且仍然希望粮食补贴标准能有一个较大程度的提高。
本文的主要创新之处在于：(1)在理论和实证分析粮食补贴政策对农户生产行为影响的基础上,构建农户生产行为规划模型,模拟分析了不同情景下粮食补贴政策的实施绩效,弥补了目前学术界直接从农民收入或粮食产出来评价粮食补贴政策实施绩效的研究不足；(2)本文在充分考虑粮食补贴政策对农户农业生产行为影响的同时,深入分析了粮食补贴政策诱发的农户生产要素投入尤其是非农劳动行为变化的影响及其对提高家庭收入的间接影响,这扩展了目前国内相关研究大都仅考察粮食补贴政策对农户粮食生产和种植业收入影响的研究视角；(3)本文从调查地区的现实状况出发,设置补贴强度、劳动力和农资要素价格、农产品价格以及土地经营规模等不同政策情景,分别对农户生产行为规划模型进行模拟分析,以展示粮食补贴政策的实施绩效,这不仅在方法上具有科学性,同时也使研究更具实际应用价值。
Agriculture is the basis of the country; food is the first necessity of the people. As for a big country with population of 1.3 billion, stabilize and increase grain production has always been the basis of china's economic development, social stability and national self-reliance. Since the year 2004, the central government has implemented a series of policies including grain direct subsidy, coprehensive direct subsidy, seeds subsidy and farm-machinery purchase subsidy. Government increases the subsidies every year to protect the benefits of farmers and increase grain production and family income. Therefore, to what extent that grain subsidy policies affect farmrs' grain production behavior? what effects of the existing subsidy policies on raising grain production and farmer income? What farmers'expectations and requirements on the subsidy policies? Especially in the context that the world is facing tough times of food security and experiencing large-scale food crisis, objectively evaluating the performance of grain subsidy policies and further proposing some policy suggestions on improving the grain subsidy policies, Which has very important academic research value and fundamentally application.
Based on the theory of farmers'behavior and relevant researches of domestic and foreign studies, this dissertation constructs theoretical model of farmers'behavior in production decision-making with grain subsidy policies embedded in, using the household survey data in Anhui province, empirically studies the impact of grain subsidy policies on farmers'producing behavior. On this basis, this research constructs a programming model of farmers' producing behavior and simulates the effects of grain subsidy policies on farmers'grain output and family income under the scenarios of changing intensity of grain subsidies, prices of labor and agricultural input factors, prices of agricultural outputs and the scale of land management. Accordingly, this study objectively evaluates the performance of grain subsidy policies as well as further proposes some policy suggestions on improving the policy system. The main research contents are as the follow:
The first part is the literature review. To begin with, this part summarizes foreign relevant research about agricultural subsidies; Secondly, it comments on domestic relevant research literature about grain subsidy policies. Then it points out the shortcomings of present research and puts forward the tas、the focus and methods of this study.
The second part is the reform of grain subsidy policies and the status. The paper retrospects historical changes of china's grain subsidy policies since the reform and opening-up, Then it analyses the background, objectives, system and problems of the existing grain policies during the policy implementation.
The third part is the microeconomic analysis of grain subsidy policies. Based on the farmers'behavior theories, this study constructs theoretical model of farmers' behavior in production decision-making with grain subsidy policies, analyzes the impact of grain subsidy policies on the farmers'production, through household survey data in Anhui province and constructs econometric models to empirically study the impacts of grain subsidy policies on farmers' decisions-making about plantation, investment and labor time allocation.
The fourth part is the simulation of the subsidy performance. In line with the impact of grain subsidy policies on farmers' producing behavior, the research uses mathematical programming method and constructs programming model of farmers' producing behavior to simulate the effects of grain subsidy policies on farmers' grain production and family income under different scenarios. Accordingly, Objectively evaluate the performance of grain subsidy policies from grain production and family income.
The last part is the summary of this dissertation, as well as proposals on further improvement of the grain subsidy policies.
The results show that: grain subsidy policies have significantly incentive effects on stimulating farmers to increase grain areas and material capital investment, the more land resource endowed by farmers, the stronger motives for them to increase agricultural inputs. Additionally, using grain subsidies on direct consumption does not significantly affect the level of inputs for grain production. Therefore, it can not judge even suspect the performance of grain subsidy policies from the surfacial phenomenon of using the subsidies. The simulation and optimization results show that: compared with the basic scenario, the low growth of subsidy standards has no obvious effects on grain production and family income. The effects of grain subsidy on increasing production and income are significant if there are the raises of land management scale, agricultural product prices and subsidy standards. The promotional effects of grain subsidy policies are weakened significantly if the prices of agricultural input factors rises. Farmers who have large scale of land management and high proportion of growing grain are more sensitive to the change of grain subsidy policies, and the policies'impact on grain production and family income is greater. Generally, farmers satisfied with current grain subsidy policies, but disidentify the way of payment, most farmers expect to distribute subsidies interms of the grain actual planting acreage and further raise the standards of grain subsidies to a large degree.
The main progresses of this dissertation are the follows:Based on theoretical and empirical analysis of the grain subsidy policies impacts on farmers' producing behavior, this study constructs a programming model of farmers'producing behavior to simulate the performance of grain subsidy policies under different scenarios. It breakes through current evaluation on the policy performance directly from farmers' income or grain production. Take full account of the policy impacts on farmers' agricultural producing behavior and deeply analysis the impacts of grain subsidy policies on farmers'factor inputs behavior especially on non-agricultural labor practices, and the indirect impacts on increasing family income,which expand the research perspective that current research mostly concerned with the effects of grain subsidies on grain production and farming income. Design different policy scenarios including intensity of grain subsidies, prices of labor and agricultural input factors, prices of agricultural outputs and the scale of land management based on the reality of survey area, and simulates the performance of grain subsidy policies under different scenarios,which enriches the current research scenario that mainly focus on changing intensity of grain subsidies.
引文
1资料来源：《国家粮食安全中长期规划纲要(2008-2020)》。
2资料来源：《全国新增1000亿斤粮食生产能力规划(2009-2020年)》。
1资料来源：粮食问题研究编辑部.世界粮食危机与中国粮食安全. 粮食问题研究,2008(3),1-3。
2资料来源：根据《中国统计年鉴》数据计算。
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1转引自陈和午.农户模型的发展与应用：文献综述.农业技术经济,2004(3),2-8.
2同上
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1参考赵建欣.农户安全蔬菜供给决策机制研究-基于河北、山东和浙江菜农的实证.博士学位论文,浙江大学,2008.
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2资料来源：《全国新增1000亿斤粮食生产能力规划(2009-2020年)》。
1资料来源：粮食问题研究编辑部.世界粮食危机与中国粮食安全. 粮食问题研究,2008(3),1-3。
2资料来源：根据《中国统计年鉴》数据计算。
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2同上
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