基于生态足迹改进模型的江苏省耕地利用可持续性研究
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摘要
本文运用能值分析的理论和方法，对传统的生态足迹模型进行改进，提出了耕地生态承载力计算的新方法，建立了一个新的评价耕地利用可持续性的指标——生态可持续指数的概念，进一步补充和完善生态足迹的理论。将改进的生态足迹模型应用于江苏省耕地生态足迹的现状、历史演变和空间变化等研究，具体方法和结果如下：
(1)同时用传统的和改进的生态足迹模型对江苏耕地生态足迹现状和历史演变进行研究，两种方法的研究结果都表明，自上世纪80年代以来江苏省的耕地利用处于弱不可持续状态。不同的是改进模型表明江苏省耕地利用在1981年以后出现了生态赤字，生态可持续指数开始小于0.5，比传统方法提前了5年。生态可持续指数定义取值范围在0和1之间，大于0.5表明耕地利用是可持续的，反之是不持续的。从1961年到2004年，传统模型计算出的江苏省生态可持续指数的变化范围是0.7～0.4，但改进模型的生态持续指数的变化范围是0.7～0.3，通过对现实情况的分析，改进的生态足迹模型得出的结论更合理些。
(2)在耕地生态承载力研究中，改进模型把太刚辐射、降水量、土壤肥力、土地利用效率和耕地面积等作为构成耕地生态承载力的实质因素。江苏省耕地生态承载力的空间格局是：苏北地区的耕地生态承载力普遍大于苏中和苏南地区。在苏北地区，盐城市、淮安市和宿迁市的耕地生态承载力最大，苏南地区南京、无锡、苏州的耕地生态承载力最小。2004年江苏省各地市耕地生态足迹都大于其生态承载力，出现了不同程度的生态赤字，生态可持续指数都小于0.5。其中盐城、南通、泰州、南京等市的耕地生态可持续指数较小，而无锡和苏州二市的较大，说明无锡、苏州的耕地生态可持续性强，盐城、南通、泰州和南京等市的耕地生态可持续性差些。
(3)汲取回归分析和时间序列分析的思想，采用交错滚动的方法，本文设计和建立了对区域耕地利用可持续性变化进行模拟和预测的时空回归模型。用其预测江苏省耕地利用可持续性变化，结果表明：江苏省耕地生态可持续指数在未来的5-6年变化较大，大多数市有降低的趋势，甚至泰州市的生态可持续指数等级比原来降低了一级。
(4)运用相关分析和灰色关联度建模机理，得出了由强到弱影响江苏省耕地利用可持续性的7个主要驱动因素动态关联序，即粮食播种面积、耕地面积、棉花播种面积、人口数、油料播种面积、猪羊牛肉产量、化肥施用量。江苏省耕地利用可持续性存在的主要问题：一是国家建设用地和居民住房用地增加太快，使耕地面积日益减少；二是人口多，增长速度快，人均耕地面积锐减；三是由于种植结构调整，低能耗的粮食作物播种面积减少，而高能耗的油料作物播种面积的急剧增加，耕地资源消耗加重；四是有机肥施用量和绿肥种植面积的减少和单纯大量施用化肥的负面作用越来越明显。五是耕地质量退化、污染和破坏严重等。作者从九个方面提出了促进江苏省耕地可持续利用的对策。
Based on the theory of emergy analysis, a new modified model of ecological footprint is provided, which puts forward a new way to calculate cropland ecological capacity, and establishes a new concept of ecological sustainable index (ESI) to evaluate the sustainability of cropland use. This new modified ecological footprint model is applied to the studies of the current situation, temporal evolution, and spatial change of cropland use in Jiangsu Province, China. Some specified measurements and conclusion are as follows:
1. Comparisons are made between the modified model and conventional model for the studies of current situation and temporal evolution of Jiangsu's cropland use. The results from two models show that the cropland use in Jiangsu is unsustainable since 1980's, with differences that thus unsustainability took place in 1981 by modified model, 5 years earlier than that by conventional model. The ESI of Jiangsu's cropland use, with the deadline of 0.5 for sustainability and unsustainability, has decreased from 0.7, indicating a situation of sustainable cropland use, to 0.3, a unsustainable situation, from 1961 to 2004 by modified model, comparing with that of from 0.7 to 0.4 in the same period by conventional model. The results from the modified model are closer to the realities of Jiangsu.
2. The author considers the solar radiation, precipitation, fertility of soil, the efficiency of land use and eara of cropland as natures of ecological capacity of cropland. Spatial pattern of cropland's ecological capacity in Jiangsu is that the ecological capacity in northern region is more than that in the middle and southern regions. Cities of Yancheng, Huaian and Suqian in northern Jiangsu have highest cropland ecological capacity, in the meanwhile, cities in southern Jiangsu such as Nanjing, Wusi and Suchou have lowest ecological capacity. Ecological deficits of cropland in all cities in Jiangsu Province appeared in 2004 because their ecological footprints of cropland are greater than their ecological capacities. However, the situations of cropland use in Wusi and Suzhou cities are better than that in cities of Yancheng, Nantong and Taizhou, etc.
3. This paper designs and establishes a spatio-temporal regression model to simulate and predict the spatio-temporal variability of cropland use sustainability in Jiangsu by the method of cross moving. The results indicate that there are some decreasing for most cities' ESI of cropland use, even the cropland ESI of Taizhou city goes down to the next class.
4. The order of 7 factors affecting sustainability of cropland use in Jiangsu is obtained by the methods of correlation analysis and gray modeling, which is from the stronger to the weaker as follows: area of grain planting, area of cropland, area of cotton planting, population, area of food oil crop planting, productivity of animals, fertilizer application. There are five problems in the sustainability of cropland use in Jiangsu: (1) area of cropland is decreasing due to the rapid increasing area for the country's industrial construction and citizens' house building; (2) per capita cropland area go down quickly because of large population increasing; (3) more energy of cropland is exhausted owing to more crops of higher energy demand like rape replacing that of lower energy demand like wheat; (4) negative affects of applying more chemical fertilizer and less organic materials are appearing; (5) the quality of cropland is decreasing because of its bing polluted. 9 counter measurements are pointed out to deal with these problems.
(1)同时用传统的和改进的生态足迹模型对江苏耕地生态足迹现状和历史演变进行研究，两种方法的研究结果都表明，自上世纪80年代以来江苏省的耕地利用处于弱不可持续状态。不同的是改进模型表明江苏省耕地利用在1981年以后出现了生态赤字，生态可持续指数开始小于0.5，比传统方法提前了5年。生态可持续指数定义取值范围在0和1之间，大于0.5表明耕地利用是可持续的，反之是不持续的。从1961年到2004年，传统模型计算出的江苏省生态可持续指数的变化范围是0.7～0.4，但改进模型的生态持续指数的变化范围是0.7～0.3，通过对现实情况的分析，改进的生态足迹模型得出的结论更合理些。
(2)在耕地生态承载力研究中，改进模型把太刚辐射、降水量、土壤肥力、土地利用效率和耕地面积等作为构成耕地生态承载力的实质因素。江苏省耕地生态承载力的空间格局是：苏北地区的耕地生态承载力普遍大于苏中和苏南地区。在苏北地区，盐城市、淮安市和宿迁市的耕地生态承载力最大，苏南地区南京、无锡、苏州的耕地生态承载力最小。2004年江苏省各地市耕地生态足迹都大于其生态承载力，出现了不同程度的生态赤字，生态可持续指数都小于0.5。其中盐城、南通、泰州、南京等市的耕地生态可持续指数较小，而无锡和苏州二市的较大，说明无锡、苏州的耕地生态可持续性强，盐城、南通、泰州和南京等市的耕地生态可持续性差些。
(3)汲取回归分析和时间序列分析的思想，采用交错滚动的方法，本文设计和建立了对区域耕地利用可持续性变化进行模拟和预测的时空回归模型。用其预测江苏省耕地利用可持续性变化，结果表明：江苏省耕地生态可持续指数在未来的5-6年变化较大，大多数市有降低的趋势，甚至泰州市的生态可持续指数等级比原来降低了一级。
(4)运用相关分析和灰色关联度建模机理，得出了由强到弱影响江苏省耕地利用可持续性的7个主要驱动因素动态关联序，即粮食播种面积、耕地面积、棉花播种面积、人口数、油料播种面积、猪羊牛肉产量、化肥施用量。江苏省耕地利用可持续性存在的主要问题：一是国家建设用地和居民住房用地增加太快，使耕地面积日益减少；二是人口多，增长速度快，人均耕地面积锐减；三是由于种植结构调整，低能耗的粮食作物播种面积减少，而高能耗的油料作物播种面积的急剧增加，耕地资源消耗加重；四是有机肥施用量和绿肥种植面积的减少和单纯大量施用化肥的负面作用越来越明显。五是耕地质量退化、污染和破坏严重等。作者从九个方面提出了促进江苏省耕地可持续利用的对策。
Based on the theory of emergy analysis, a new modified model of ecological footprint is provided, which puts forward a new way to calculate cropland ecological capacity, and establishes a new concept of ecological sustainable index (ESI) to evaluate the sustainability of cropland use. This new modified ecological footprint model is applied to the studies of the current situation, temporal evolution, and spatial change of cropland use in Jiangsu Province, China. Some specified measurements and conclusion are as follows:
1. Comparisons are made between the modified model and conventional model for the studies of current situation and temporal evolution of Jiangsu's cropland use. The results from two models show that the cropland use in Jiangsu is unsustainable since 1980's, with differences that thus unsustainability took place in 1981 by modified model, 5 years earlier than that by conventional model. The ESI of Jiangsu's cropland use, with the deadline of 0.5 for sustainability and unsustainability, has decreased from 0.7, indicating a situation of sustainable cropland use, to 0.3, a unsustainable situation, from 1961 to 2004 by modified model, comparing with that of from 0.7 to 0.4 in the same period by conventional model. The results from the modified model are closer to the realities of Jiangsu.
2. The author considers the solar radiation, precipitation, fertility of soil, the efficiency of land use and eara of cropland as natures of ecological capacity of cropland. Spatial pattern of cropland's ecological capacity in Jiangsu is that the ecological capacity in northern region is more than that in the middle and southern regions. Cities of Yancheng, Huaian and Suqian in northern Jiangsu have highest cropland ecological capacity, in the meanwhile, cities in southern Jiangsu such as Nanjing, Wusi and Suchou have lowest ecological capacity. Ecological deficits of cropland in all cities in Jiangsu Province appeared in 2004 because their ecological footprints of cropland are greater than their ecological capacities. However, the situations of cropland use in Wusi and Suzhou cities are better than that in cities of Yancheng, Nantong and Taizhou, etc.
3. This paper designs and establishes a spatio-temporal regression model to simulate and predict the spatio-temporal variability of cropland use sustainability in Jiangsu by the method of cross moving. The results indicate that there are some decreasing for most cities' ESI of cropland use, even the cropland ESI of Taizhou city goes down to the next class.
4. The order of 7 factors affecting sustainability of cropland use in Jiangsu is obtained by the methods of correlation analysis and gray modeling, which is from the stronger to the weaker as follows: area of grain planting, area of cropland, area of cotton planting, population, area of food oil crop planting, productivity of animals, fertilizer application. There are five problems in the sustainability of cropland use in Jiangsu: (1) area of cropland is decreasing due to the rapid increasing area for the country's industrial construction and citizens' house building; (2) per capita cropland area go down quickly because of large population increasing; (3) more energy of cropland is exhausted owing to more crops of higher energy demand like rape replacing that of lower energy demand like wheat; (4) negative affects of applying more chemical fertilizer and less organic materials are appearing; (5) the quality of cropland is decreasing because of its bing polluted. 9 counter measurements are pointed out to deal with these problems.
引文
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