我国国际贸易与外商直接投资相互影响研究
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摘要
国际贸易和投资自由化发展是当前经济全球化的重要推进器,为世界各国尤其是发展中国家参与国际分工、发展本国经济提供了重要外部条件,此背景下国际贸易和投资的变化特征和相互关系自然成为了各国关注的焦点。本文首先分析了自由化背景下国际贸易和投资的演变路径和特征,然后在此基础上较为系统和全面地研析了自改革开放以来中国对外贸易和外商直接投资的发展规律,接着采用引力模型分别研究了外商直接投资对中国国际贸易的影响,以及中国进出口贸易对外商直接投资的影响,并运用格兰杰因果检验方法进一步实证分析了近二十年来中国对外贸易和外商直接投资的相互关系,具体有如下主要结论：
自二次世界大战结束以来,随着国际贸易和投资的自由化发展,国际贸易在多阶段发展中显现出快速增长之势,其年均增速显著高于世界GDP增速,跨国公司内部贸易是重要动力源。欧美在国际贸易中比重趋于下降,亚洲对国际贸易影响明显提高,但国际贸易仍然高度集中于高收入经济体。工业制品绝对优势地位在强化,中间产品成为国际贸易主体,国际贸易商品技术结构不断优化。国际直接投资在波动中显示出快速增长态势,平均增速高于国际贸易,有力地促进世界固定资本的形成。发达经济体是国际直接投资的主导者,但发展中经济体的影响在不断加大。国际直接投资的首选领域经历了由制造业转向服务业,再转向制造业的交替过程。跨国并购是国际直接投资的主要进入方式,主要发生在服务业。
新中国成立后,尤其是十一届三中全会后,顺应国际贸易和投资自由化发展趋势,通过不断推进经济体制改革,中国对外贸易经历缓慢、快速、较快和高速四个增长阶段,总体呈现快速发展势头。在对外贸易快速发展的同时,中国进出口商品结构处于不断变化中,工业制品、中间产品和中、高技术密集型产品已主导中国进出口贸易,且引领力日趋增强。虽然中国对外贸易在多元化发展,但仍有出口高度集中于欧美市场,进口集中于日本、韩国和香港。中国吸引外商直接投资则经历了探索、初步发展、高速发展、调整发展和稳步发展五个阶段,总体呈现快速发展趋势。同时,亚洲国家在外商直接投资来源地中一直占据重要地位,其他地区稍有变化。在目的地方面,沿海地区为吸引外商直接投资主要地区,华东地区的外商直接投资所占比重逐步增加,华南地区所占比重则逐步下降。
在上述研究的基础上,本文进一步利用引力模型分析了外商直接投资和国际贸易的关系。首先,就外商直接投资对国际贸易影响的引力模型的计量分析结果表明,外商直接投资的流入对从出口和进口都具有促进作用,但是外商直接投资对出口的正向作用力强于对进口的作用力。外商直接投资的流入之所以能带动中国进出口贸易的发展主要是因为中国外商直接投资的流入具有市场导向型和成本导向型特征。其次,就国际贸易对外商直接投资影响的引力模型显示,中国的出口显著地促进了出口对象国对华直接投资,反映了外商对华直接投资活动在很大程度上是为了获得中国的生产要素。同时,进口对外商对华直接投资也产生了积极的影响,但其影响程度比出口小。显然,外商对华直接投资在一定程度上也是为了占据中国的市场,但这一动机相对较弱。
基于格兰杰因果检验的相互关系分析表明,在短期内中国的出口贸易额和外商直接投资存在双向的格兰杰因果关系,并且这种双向关系表明是互补的,进口贸易额和外商直接投资不存在显著的相关关系,从而清晰地表明了中国对外贸易的出口和进口两个方面和外商直接投资的相互关系,并且得出进出口贸易额和外商直接投资不存在长期的稳定关系。出口贸易额和外商直接投资的这种互补关系是由于中国的廉价的劳动力和丰富的资源禀赋造成的,其它国家或地区在中国直接投资设厂,利用中国的廉价劳动力和丰富资源,这种投资一方面带动设备和其它资本品的进口,另一方面外商直接投资生产的中间品和最终品大部分都作为出口回流到其它国家或地区,而这种回流效应非常显著。
根据上述分析结论,本文最后提出了促进中国对外贸易和外商投资发展的政策建议。
International trade and development of investment liberalization is the most important propeller for economic globalization at present and provides most external conditions for all countries especially developing countries to take part in international specialization and develop their own economy. In this condition, characteristics and relationship of changes of international trade and investment naturally become the focus of every country. This paper firstly analyzes evolvement path and characteristic of international trade and investment and then researches law of development of Chinese foreign trade and foreign direct investment since reform and opening-up on this basis, and adopts the popular gravity model of trade and granger causality test to analyze the relationship between foreign trade and international investment during last twenty years. There are some major conclusions including:
Since the ending of World War II, with the development of international trade and investment liberalization, the development pace of international trade is significantly higher than the development of the world's GDP and the source of power comes from intra-company trade of multinational corporations. European and American's proportions in international trade tend to reduce, and Asian's influence increases significantly. The status of absolute advantage of industrial products intensities, intermediate products become the subject of international trade and technological structure of trade goods optimizes continuously. The average growth rate of foreign direct investment is higher than international trade during the period of volatility and foreign investment effectively promotes formation of fixed capital in the world. Developed countries are dominant players in foreign direct investment, but the influence of developing countries is increasing. The preferred field of FDI experienced alternating process from manufacturing industry to service industry and then turned to manufacturing industry. Transnational merger and acquisition is the main entrance way of FDI, especially in service industry. After the People's Republic of China was founded, especially after third plenary session of11th central committee of the Chinese communist party, complying with the development of international trade and investment liberalization, Chinese foreign trade has experienced slow, fast, faster and high speed periods, through promoting the reform of economic system continuously. At the same time, the structure of Chinese export and import goods is changing continuously, manufacturing products, intermediate goods and middle, high technological goods have dominated Chinese trade. Although Chinese foreign trades have diversified, European and American markets have dominated exports and Japan, South Korea and Hong Kong have dominated imports. Chinese foreign direct investment has experienced five periods of exploration, preliminary development, rapid development, adjustment and steady development and it shows a trend of rapid development as a whole. At the same time, Asian's countries have played a major role in the sources of foreign direct investment and there are little changes of other areas. In terms of destination, coastal regions is the most attractive areas for foreigners to invest, the percentage of FDI attracted by East China has gradually increases and the percentage attracted by South China has gradually decrease.
Based on the above analysis, the gravity model has been adopted to test the mutual impacts of foreign direct investment on foreign trade. Results of econometric analysis show that inflow of foreign direct investment has a promoting effect on exports and imports, but the positive effect on exports is higher than that on imports. The reason for this positive effect on exports and imports is that China's foreign direct foreign direct investment has market-oriented and cost-oriented features. Our test on the impacts of foreign trade on foreign direct investment indicates that export can promote foreign direct investment inflows significantly, while import has a weaker impact. These findings implies that the foreign investors come to China mainly in hope of exploiting the cheap production resources and preferential policies in China, while the incentive of vicinity to market is less important.
Analysis of relationship based on Granger causality test shows that there is two-way Granger causality relationship between Chinese exports and foreign direct investment in the short run, and this relationship is complementary. There doesn't exist a significant relationship between FDI and imports, and concludes that there doesn't exist a long-run stable relationship between FDI and exports or imports. This complementary relationship between FDI and exports is produced by Chinese cheap labor resource and abundant factor endowment. Many other countries start up enterprises in China and use cheap labor resource and abundant factor endowment, this investment drives exports of equipment and other capital goods on one hand, parts of intermediate and finished goods produced by foreign direct investment will reflow to those countries ultimately on the other hand.
At last, based on the conclusions above, this paper puts forward some policy suggestions for the development of Chinese foreign trade and foreign direct investment.
自二次世界大战结束以来,随着国际贸易和投资的自由化发展,国际贸易在多阶段发展中显现出快速增长之势,其年均增速显著高于世界GDP增速,跨国公司内部贸易是重要动力源。欧美在国际贸易中比重趋于下降,亚洲对国际贸易影响明显提高,但国际贸易仍然高度集中于高收入经济体。工业制品绝对优势地位在强化,中间产品成为国际贸易主体,国际贸易商品技术结构不断优化。国际直接投资在波动中显示出快速增长态势,平均增速高于国际贸易,有力地促进世界固定资本的形成。发达经济体是国际直接投资的主导者,但发展中经济体的影响在不断加大。国际直接投资的首选领域经历了由制造业转向服务业,再转向制造业的交替过程。跨国并购是国际直接投资的主要进入方式,主要发生在服务业。
新中国成立后,尤其是十一届三中全会后,顺应国际贸易和投资自由化发展趋势,通过不断推进经济体制改革,中国对外贸易经历缓慢、快速、较快和高速四个增长阶段,总体呈现快速发展势头。在对外贸易快速发展的同时,中国进出口商品结构处于不断变化中,工业制品、中间产品和中、高技术密集型产品已主导中国进出口贸易,且引领力日趋增强。虽然中国对外贸易在多元化发展,但仍有出口高度集中于欧美市场,进口集中于日本、韩国和香港。中国吸引外商直接投资则经历了探索、初步发展、高速发展、调整发展和稳步发展五个阶段,总体呈现快速发展趋势。同时,亚洲国家在外商直接投资来源地中一直占据重要地位,其他地区稍有变化。在目的地方面,沿海地区为吸引外商直接投资主要地区,华东地区的外商直接投资所占比重逐步增加,华南地区所占比重则逐步下降。
在上述研究的基础上,本文进一步利用引力模型分析了外商直接投资和国际贸易的关系。首先,就外商直接投资对国际贸易影响的引力模型的计量分析结果表明,外商直接投资的流入对从出口和进口都具有促进作用,但是外商直接投资对出口的正向作用力强于对进口的作用力。外商直接投资的流入之所以能带动中国进出口贸易的发展主要是因为中国外商直接投资的流入具有市场导向型和成本导向型特征。其次,就国际贸易对外商直接投资影响的引力模型显示,中国的出口显著地促进了出口对象国对华直接投资,反映了外商对华直接投资活动在很大程度上是为了获得中国的生产要素。同时,进口对外商对华直接投资也产生了积极的影响,但其影响程度比出口小。显然,外商对华直接投资在一定程度上也是为了占据中国的市场,但这一动机相对较弱。
基于格兰杰因果检验的相互关系分析表明,在短期内中国的出口贸易额和外商直接投资存在双向的格兰杰因果关系,并且这种双向关系表明是互补的,进口贸易额和外商直接投资不存在显著的相关关系,从而清晰地表明了中国对外贸易的出口和进口两个方面和外商直接投资的相互关系,并且得出进出口贸易额和外商直接投资不存在长期的稳定关系。出口贸易额和外商直接投资的这种互补关系是由于中国的廉价的劳动力和丰富的资源禀赋造成的,其它国家或地区在中国直接投资设厂,利用中国的廉价劳动力和丰富资源,这种投资一方面带动设备和其它资本品的进口,另一方面外商直接投资生产的中间品和最终品大部分都作为出口回流到其它国家或地区,而这种回流效应非常显著。
根据上述分析结论,本文最后提出了促进中国对外贸易和外商投资发展的政策建议。
International trade and development of investment liberalization is the most important propeller for economic globalization at present and provides most external conditions for all countries especially developing countries to take part in international specialization and develop their own economy. In this condition, characteristics and relationship of changes of international trade and investment naturally become the focus of every country. This paper firstly analyzes evolvement path and characteristic of international trade and investment and then researches law of development of Chinese foreign trade and foreign direct investment since reform and opening-up on this basis, and adopts the popular gravity model of trade and granger causality test to analyze the relationship between foreign trade and international investment during last twenty years. There are some major conclusions including:
Since the ending of World War II, with the development of international trade and investment liberalization, the development pace of international trade is significantly higher than the development of the world's GDP and the source of power comes from intra-company trade of multinational corporations. European and American's proportions in international trade tend to reduce, and Asian's influence increases significantly. The status of absolute advantage of industrial products intensities, intermediate products become the subject of international trade and technological structure of trade goods optimizes continuously. The average growth rate of foreign direct investment is higher than international trade during the period of volatility and foreign investment effectively promotes formation of fixed capital in the world. Developed countries are dominant players in foreign direct investment, but the influence of developing countries is increasing. The preferred field of FDI experienced alternating process from manufacturing industry to service industry and then turned to manufacturing industry. Transnational merger and acquisition is the main entrance way of FDI, especially in service industry. After the People's Republic of China was founded, especially after third plenary session of11th central committee of the Chinese communist party, complying with the development of international trade and investment liberalization, Chinese foreign trade has experienced slow, fast, faster and high speed periods, through promoting the reform of economic system continuously. At the same time, the structure of Chinese export and import goods is changing continuously, manufacturing products, intermediate goods and middle, high technological goods have dominated Chinese trade. Although Chinese foreign trades have diversified, European and American markets have dominated exports and Japan, South Korea and Hong Kong have dominated imports. Chinese foreign direct investment has experienced five periods of exploration, preliminary development, rapid development, adjustment and steady development and it shows a trend of rapid development as a whole. At the same time, Asian's countries have played a major role in the sources of foreign direct investment and there are little changes of other areas. In terms of destination, coastal regions is the most attractive areas for foreigners to invest, the percentage of FDI attracted by East China has gradually increases and the percentage attracted by South China has gradually decrease.
Based on the above analysis, the gravity model has been adopted to test the mutual impacts of foreign direct investment on foreign trade. Results of econometric analysis show that inflow of foreign direct investment has a promoting effect on exports and imports, but the positive effect on exports is higher than that on imports. The reason for this positive effect on exports and imports is that China's foreign direct foreign direct investment has market-oriented and cost-oriented features. Our test on the impacts of foreign trade on foreign direct investment indicates that export can promote foreign direct investment inflows significantly, while import has a weaker impact. These findings implies that the foreign investors come to China mainly in hope of exploiting the cheap production resources and preferential policies in China, while the incentive of vicinity to market is less important.
Analysis of relationship based on Granger causality test shows that there is two-way Granger causality relationship between Chinese exports and foreign direct investment in the short run, and this relationship is complementary. There doesn't exist a significant relationship between FDI and imports, and concludes that there doesn't exist a long-run stable relationship between FDI and exports or imports. This complementary relationship between FDI and exports is produced by Chinese cheap labor resource and abundant factor endowment. Many other countries start up enterprises in China and use cheap labor resource and abundant factor endowment, this investment drives exports of equipment and other capital goods on one hand, parts of intermediate and finished goods produced by foreign direct investment will reflow to those countries ultimately on the other hand.
At last, based on the conclusions above, this paper puts forward some policy suggestions for the development of Chinese foreign trade and foreign direct investment.
引文
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