中国外债管理研究
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摘要
一场由美国次贷危机引发的国际金融危机愈演愈烈,并从虚拟经济影响到实体经济,世界经济发展的前景也就此被蒙上了一层浓厚的阴影。与此同时,外债的安全和收益越来越引起国人的关注。然而,学界对于外债问题的研究大多集中在外债规模是否在警戒线范围内,较多关注外债的性质讨论和具体外债规模作用的考证,而对于外债活动的结构性特征注意不够,相对忽视了外债结构的独特运行框架及其演变趋势。鉴于此,文章在分析外债规模与经济关系的基础上,侧重外债的结构管理为研究方向,并深入到微观层面挖掘外债对经济作用的深层次影响。并运用历史与逻辑相结合、动态分析与静态分析相结合、实证分析与理论分析相结合、比较分析等方法,对外债结构与经济增长关系、外债结构的国际比较、我国外债总量与结构分析、我国外债管理体制的思路与对策等方面进行了探讨,着重从外债结构的若干特征入手,深入分析外债结构对外债作用的发挥、对债务危机及经济发展的影响。通过基于大量面板数据的实证分析和案例分析,揭示了我国外债运行中存在的隐患。从外债结构与经济增长的理论模型,协整检验、脉冲响应分析等实证结果来看,我国外债结构对经济增长影响较大,外债的期限结构、类型结构与经济增长之间存在长期的均衡关系。分析结果显示,外债结构直接关系到外债利息的高低、汇率风险的大小和偿债期限的长短组合,以及经济发展的稳定性问题。在此基础上,对我国当前总量管理与结构管理相结合,但偏重于总量管理的外债管理模式提出建议。
The international financial crisis because of sub-borrow becomes furious,and it transmits from dummy economy to entity economy.The foreground of international economy drop shadow.At the same time,I concern about safety and income of foreign debt.However,the literatures about foreign debt are fastened on scale and character.The study about structure of foreign debt is few.Also,we ignore to research the evolvement of foreign debt relatively.So I choose the structure management of foreign debt as the study direction.What's more,I analyze the affect of foreign debt on economy from microcosmic lay.I use dynamic analysis and static analysis to study the relationship between foreign debt structure and economy,using demonstration analysis and theoretic analysis to study the relationship between foreign debt scale and economy.Also,I analyze the management system of foreign debt.Starting with character of foreign debt structure,I analyze the affect of debt crisis on economy and so on.Recuring to panel data,I open out the disaster about foreign debt circulate based on case analysis.The result of co-integration analysis,impulse respond analysis and granger analysis shows that the impact of foreign debt on economy is very strong. There is long equilibrium relation exists between foreign debt term structure and economy.It also tells us the foreign debt structure connects with scale of foreign interest and exchange risk.At last,I make some advice to establish rational management system.
The international financial crisis because of sub-borrow becomes furious,and it transmits from dummy economy to entity economy.The foreground of international economy drop shadow.At the same time,I concern about safety and income of foreign debt.However,the literatures about foreign debt are fastened on scale and character.The study about structure of foreign debt is few.Also,we ignore to research the evolvement of foreign debt relatively.So I choose the structure management of foreign debt as the study direction.What's more,I analyze the affect of foreign debt on economy from microcosmic lay.I use dynamic analysis and static analysis to study the relationship between foreign debt structure and economy,using demonstration analysis and theoretic analysis to study the relationship between foreign debt scale and economy.Also,I analyze the management system of foreign debt.Starting with character of foreign debt structure,I analyze the affect of debt crisis on economy and so on.Recuring to panel data,I open out the disaster about foreign debt circulate based on case analysis.The result of co-integration analysis,impulse respond analysis and granger analysis shows that the impact of foreign debt on economy is very strong. There is long equilibrium relation exists between foreign debt term structure and economy.It also tells us the foreign debt structure connects with scale of foreign interest and exchange risk.At last,I make some advice to establish rational management system.
引文
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