能源环境社会经济系统可持续发展SD建模与仿真
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摘要
人类的生产活动曾经一味注重经济的发展规模、GDP发展速度,而忽视了生态承载力等诸多其他因素,割裂了各种因素在生态循环中的作用,导致气候变化,最终危及到了人类自身的生存环境、阻碍了我们的生产。正是由于这一系列的生态危机,使人类认识到不能简单孤立的以近期利益为目标进行掠夺式发展,而要实现各因素之间的协调以实现良性的可持续的发展。缓解能源与环境问题对经济社会发展的瓶颈制约是关系全局的战略课题,本论文期望应用系统动力学建立一个动态的复杂巨系统模型,以解决能源环境-社会经济之间的矛盾,实现能源环境-社会经济系统的协调可持续发展。
本文从系统动力学的原理入手,分析了能源、环境、社会、经济各子系统的发展现状,确定模型边界,提出本模型构建所需的主要指标,确定指标之间的因果关系以及信息反馈机制,并分析了各指标之间的量化关系,绘制能源环境-社会经济系统动力学流图,运用VENSIM软件建立了可在计算机上运行的能源环境-社会经济系统的系统动力学模型,结合国家统计局2000-2008年数据验证模型的可靠性,得到了很好的拟合效果,说明模型可信。
本模型预测了2014年以前我国能源总产出量、GDP、国民生活水平、环境污染积累量等指标,以及对模拟结果进行分析并提出了部分对策建议。此研究为如何实现能源、环境、社会与经济协调可持续发展提供了参考,并为我国的宏观政策提出战略性建议。
Human activities have been focus on the scale of economic development and GDP growth rate, while they always ignoring the ecological carrying capacity and split a variety of factors in the role of the ecological cycle, at last their works lead to climate change, and not only ultimately endanger the survival environment of mankind but also hinder our production. It is precisely because this series of ecological crisis, the human become to known that we can’t continue the looting-style development to seek the recent interests and objectives, instead, we should achieve coordinate development among the various factors. To ease the energy and environmental issues on soc-economic development bottleneck is the overall strategic issues, we hope that to apply of System Dynamics to build a dynamic, complex giant system model in order to solve the contradiction between the socio-economic and energy-environment system, at last, to realize the coordinated and sustainable development between them.
Based on the principle of system dynamics, we analyzed in energy, environmental, social and economic and the development status of the of each subsystem to determine the model boundaries, not only proposed key indicators relating to the model, but also to determine the causal relationship between indicators and information feedback mechanisms, and analysis of the quantitative relationship between the various indicators. VENSIM software, which can be used to establish a computer running system dynamics model on energy-environment and socio-economic system, , with data of 2000-2008 we get a very good fitting results, indicate the model can be used letter.
Finally the model predicts China's 2009-2014 total energy output, GDP, national standard of living, environmental pollution accumulation and other indicators, as well as simulation results are analyzed and put forward some countermeasures and suggestions. This study on how to achieve coordinated and sustainable development of the energy-environmental and soc-economic, the reference can use for the country's macro-policies of strategic recommendations.
本文从系统动力学的原理入手,分析了能源、环境、社会、经济各子系统的发展现状,确定模型边界,提出本模型构建所需的主要指标,确定指标之间的因果关系以及信息反馈机制,并分析了各指标之间的量化关系,绘制能源环境-社会经济系统动力学流图,运用VENSIM软件建立了可在计算机上运行的能源环境-社会经济系统的系统动力学模型,结合国家统计局2000-2008年数据验证模型的可靠性,得到了很好的拟合效果,说明模型可信。
本模型预测了2014年以前我国能源总产出量、GDP、国民生活水平、环境污染积累量等指标,以及对模拟结果进行分析并提出了部分对策建议。此研究为如何实现能源、环境、社会与经济协调可持续发展提供了参考,并为我国的宏观政策提出战略性建议。
Human activities have been focus on the scale of economic development and GDP growth rate, while they always ignoring the ecological carrying capacity and split a variety of factors in the role of the ecological cycle, at last their works lead to climate change, and not only ultimately endanger the survival environment of mankind but also hinder our production. It is precisely because this series of ecological crisis, the human become to known that we can’t continue the looting-style development to seek the recent interests and objectives, instead, we should achieve coordinate development among the various factors. To ease the energy and environmental issues on soc-economic development bottleneck is the overall strategic issues, we hope that to apply of System Dynamics to build a dynamic, complex giant system model in order to solve the contradiction between the socio-economic and energy-environment system, at last, to realize the coordinated and sustainable development between them.
Based on the principle of system dynamics, we analyzed in energy, environmental, social and economic and the development status of the of each subsystem to determine the model boundaries, not only proposed key indicators relating to the model, but also to determine the causal relationship between indicators and information feedback mechanisms, and analysis of the quantitative relationship between the various indicators. VENSIM software, which can be used to establish a computer running system dynamics model on energy-environment and socio-economic system, , with data of 2000-2008 we get a very good fitting results, indicate the model can be used letter.
Finally the model predicts China's 2009-2014 total energy output, GDP, national standard of living, environmental pollution accumulation and other indicators, as well as simulation results are analyzed and put forward some countermeasures and suggestions. This study on how to achieve coordinated and sustainable development of the energy-environmental and soc-economic, the reference can use for the country's macro-policies of strategic recommendations.
引文
[1]成桂芳,潘军.论生态环境系统与社会经济系统的协调发展[J].盐城工学院学报.2000,4:16.
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[3]许光清,邹骥.可持续发展与系统动力学[J].经济理论与经济管理.2005,1:69.
[4]方美琪,张树人.组杂系统建模与仿真[M].中国人民大学出版社:278]
[5]王其藩.系统动力学理论与方法的新进展[J].系统工程理论方法应用.1995,4(2):6
[6]钟永光,钱颖,于庆东,杜文泉.系统动力学在国内外的发展历程与未来发展方向[J].河南科技大学学报.2006,8(4):24.
[7]宋世涛,魏一呜,范英.中国可持续发展问题的系统动力学研究进展[J].中国人口·资源与环境.2004,14(2):42.
[8]Wang Qifan, et al.Theory and application of system dynamics. Beijing: New Times Press,1987. 14~23, 398~419,443~456.
[9]Wang Qifan. Comprehensive methods of system analysis,inference, synthesis and model sets for studying the socio-economic-ecosystem. The Role of Strategic Modeling in International Competitiveness. System Dynamics Society, Mexico, 1993. 544~553.
[10]Wang Qifan. Philosophical views and basic theories of system dynamics. In Wang Qifan, ed. Proceedings of The System Dynamics Conference. SIME Press, Shanghai , 1987. 533~546.
[11]王其藩.系统动力学[M].北京:清华大学出版社.1998:20-100.
[12]吴叶君,等.中国可持续发展系统动力学仿真模型——能源部分[J].计算机仿真.1998,(1):18.
[13]刘豹.能源模型与系统分析[M],北京:能源出版社.1984:30-60.
[14]傅劲木,傅先兰.RESE系统可持续发展的评价原理、方法研究[J].北京师范大学学报(自然科学版).1997,33(4):549.
[15]刘培哲等.可持续发展理论与中国2l世纪议程[M].北京:气象出版社,2001.
[16]钟茂初.“可持续发展”的意涵误区与生态文明之关系[J].学术月刊.2008,7:5-6.
[17]Dennis L.Meadows et a1.The limits to gowth [M].New York:Universe Books,1974.
[18]Vensim.Vetana simulation environment.Refrence Manual. Ventana System.Inc.1995.
[19]傅劲木傅先兰.RESE系统可持续发展的评价原理、方法研究[J].北京师范大学学报(自然科学版).1997, 33(4):547.
[20]陈丽萍.能源可持续发展研究现状评述[J].国土资源情报. 2005,11:1.
[21](美国)戴斯·贾丁斯.环境伦理学[M].环境哲学导论(第3版)(经济伦理学译丛).
[22]吴树青.中国经济发展的现状和趋势[J].中国流通经济.2006,1: 5.
[23]马传栋.论资源生态经济系统的功能[J].济宁师专学报.1995,4:20.
[24] Pichler, H.J. Modellanalyse und Modellkritik, Berlin, 1967.
[25] Hoffman K C, et al. Economic and technological models for evaluation of energy policy [J]. The Bell Journal of Economics,1977,8(2):444—466.
[26] Barker T, et al. Inducing low-carbon technological change in the UK economy using an integrated E3 modeling approach [EB/OL]. http://www.biee.org/downloads/oxford05/barker.pdf, 2005.
[27]仇方道,佟连军,李博.煤炭城市生态经济系统物质输入输出及影响因素———以阜新市为例[J].自然资源学报.2009,1:115.
[28]华立,赵纯均.复杂性与社会经济系统建模[J].清华大学学报(哲学社会科学版).2001,3(16):43-48.
[29]杨云彦.人口、资源与环境经济学仁[M].中国经济出版社,1999.
[30]Social theory and system dynamics practice David C. Lane European Journal of Operational Research 113 (1999) 501-527;31 Quade,E.S.,Brown,K.: Systems Analysis,Journal of ASA Vol.5,No.2,1978.
[32]罗丽艳.关于人口、资源、环境经济学的若干思考[J].南方人口.2003,3: 19-20.
[33]陈效逑,赵婷婷,郭玉泉,等.中国经济系统物质输入与输出分析[J].北京大学学报(自然科学版), 2003, 39(4):538~547.
[34]2004中国环境状况公报.国家环境保护总局.15-20.
[35]2007年全国环境统计公报.中国环保产业.2008,11:4-6.
[36] Ventang Systems,Inc. vensim ple help. 60 Jacob Gates Rates. Road Harvard MA 01451 USA. 1998.
[37]贾仁安,丁荣华.系统动力学—反馈动态性复杂分析[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2002.
[38]何有世,章文芳,李光久.环境经济系统SD模型的建立[J].江苏理工大学学报(社会科学版).2001,4:66.
[39]王宇奇,胡运权,赵达薇.基于系统动力学的中国石油工业持续发展能力分析[J].工业技术经济,2006,25(8):66-69.
[40]MEADOWS D H,MEADOWS D L,J BEHBENS.The Limits to Growth:A Report for the Club of Rome's Project on the Predicament of Mand [M].New York:Universe Books,1972.
[41]丹尼斯·米都斯等.增长的极限——罗马俱乐部关于人类困境的报告[R].李宝恒译.吉林:吉林人民出版社,1997:96-102.
[42]国家统计局.中国统计年鉴.中国统计出版社.2000-2008
[43]中国能源统计年鉴.中国统计出版.2004-2008
[2]刘翠兰.可持续发展的系统探析[J].系统辩证学学报.2001,9(3):1.
[3]许光清,邹骥.可持续发展与系统动力学[J].经济理论与经济管理.2005,1:69.
[4]方美琪,张树人.组杂系统建模与仿真[M].中国人民大学出版社:278]
[5]王其藩.系统动力学理论与方法的新进展[J].系统工程理论方法应用.1995,4(2):6
[6]钟永光,钱颖,于庆东,杜文泉.系统动力学在国内外的发展历程与未来发展方向[J].河南科技大学学报.2006,8(4):24.
[7]宋世涛,魏一呜,范英.中国可持续发展问题的系统动力学研究进展[J].中国人口·资源与环境.2004,14(2):42.
[8]Wang Qifan, et al.Theory and application of system dynamics. Beijing: New Times Press,1987. 14~23, 398~419,443~456.
[9]Wang Qifan. Comprehensive methods of system analysis,inference, synthesis and model sets for studying the socio-economic-ecosystem. The Role of Strategic Modeling in International Competitiveness. System Dynamics Society, Mexico, 1993. 544~553.
[10]Wang Qifan. Philosophical views and basic theories of system dynamics. In Wang Qifan, ed. Proceedings of The System Dynamics Conference. SIME Press, Shanghai , 1987. 533~546.
[11]王其藩.系统动力学[M].北京:清华大学出版社.1998:20-100.
[12]吴叶君,等.中国可持续发展系统动力学仿真模型——能源部分[J].计算机仿真.1998,(1):18.
[13]刘豹.能源模型与系统分析[M],北京:能源出版社.1984:30-60.
[14]傅劲木,傅先兰.RESE系统可持续发展的评价原理、方法研究[J].北京师范大学学报(自然科学版).1997,33(4):549.
[15]刘培哲等.可持续发展理论与中国2l世纪议程[M].北京:气象出版社,2001.
[16]钟茂初.“可持续发展”的意涵误区与生态文明之关系[J].学术月刊.2008,7:5-6.
[17]Dennis L.Meadows et a1.The limits to gowth [M].New York:Universe Books,1974.
[18]Vensim.Vetana simulation environment.Refrence Manual. Ventana System.Inc.1995.
[19]傅劲木傅先兰.RESE系统可持续发展的评价原理、方法研究[J].北京师范大学学报(自然科学版).1997, 33(4):547.
[20]陈丽萍.能源可持续发展研究现状评述[J].国土资源情报. 2005,11:1.
[21](美国)戴斯·贾丁斯.环境伦理学[M].环境哲学导论(第3版)(经济伦理学译丛).
[22]吴树青.中国经济发展的现状和趋势[J].中国流通经济.2006,1: 5.
[23]马传栋.论资源生态经济系统的功能[J].济宁师专学报.1995,4:20.
[24] Pichler, H.J. Modellanalyse und Modellkritik, Berlin, 1967.
[25] Hoffman K C, et al. Economic and technological models for evaluation of energy policy [J]. The Bell Journal of Economics,1977,8(2):444—466.
[26] Barker T, et al. Inducing low-carbon technological change in the UK economy using an integrated E3 modeling approach [EB/OL]. http://www.biee.org/downloads/oxford05/barker.pdf, 2005.
[27]仇方道,佟连军,李博.煤炭城市生态经济系统物质输入输出及影响因素———以阜新市为例[J].自然资源学报.2009,1:115.
[28]华立,赵纯均.复杂性与社会经济系统建模[J].清华大学学报(哲学社会科学版).2001,3(16):43-48.
[29]杨云彦.人口、资源与环境经济学仁[M].中国经济出版社,1999.
[30]Social theory and system dynamics practice David C. Lane European Journal of Operational Research 113 (1999) 501-527;31 Quade,E.S.,Brown,K.: Systems Analysis,Journal of ASA Vol.5,No.2,1978.
[32]罗丽艳.关于人口、资源、环境经济学的若干思考[J].南方人口.2003,3: 19-20.
[33]陈效逑,赵婷婷,郭玉泉,等.中国经济系统物质输入与输出分析[J].北京大学学报(自然科学版), 2003, 39(4):538~547.
[34]2004中国环境状况公报.国家环境保护总局.15-20.
[35]2007年全国环境统计公报.中国环保产业.2008,11:4-6.
[36] Ventang Systems,Inc. vensim ple help. 60 Jacob Gates Rates. Road Harvard MA 01451 USA. 1998.
[37]贾仁安,丁荣华.系统动力学—反馈动态性复杂分析[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2002.
[38]何有世,章文芳,李光久.环境经济系统SD模型的建立[J].江苏理工大学学报(社会科学版).2001,4:66.
[39]王宇奇,胡运权,赵达薇.基于系统动力学的中国石油工业持续发展能力分析[J].工业技术经济,2006,25(8):66-69.
[40]MEADOWS D H,MEADOWS D L,J BEHBENS.The Limits to Growth:A Report for the Club of Rome's Project on the Predicament of Mand [M].New York:Universe Books,1972.
[41]丹尼斯·米都斯等.增长的极限——罗马俱乐部关于人类困境的报告[R].李宝恒译.吉林:吉林人民出版社,1997:96-102.
[42]国家统计局.中国统计年鉴.中国统计出版社.2000-2008
[43]中国能源统计年鉴.中国统计出版.2004-2008