云南水电CDM项目的区域开发潜力评价研究
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摘要
清洁发展机制(Clean Development Mechanism简称CDM)是《京都议定书》框架下引入的灵活履约机制之一。CDM项目产生的温室气体减排数额作为发达国家履行他们所承诺的减排量,而发展中国家合作方通过CDM项目的实施,获得资金援助和先进技术。清洁发展机制(CDM)是能使区域经济获得生态环境保护与经济发展“双赢”的机制。
目前,国内外对CDM项目的开发潜力分析评价主要从两个方面考虑,其一是应用专业性的数学模型进行分析,从国际角度来探讨并确定中国的CDM分部门潜力;其二为在研究区域范围内,根据研究地区的资源优势归纳出研究区域建立CDM项目的潜力。第一种方法专业性比较强,并且是定量化的表现了CDM开发建设的潜力,专业的数据表格图形对非专业人士来说,比较艰涩难懂,难于对CDM项目相关信息进行推广普及,致使许多适合开发的项目没有被发现;第二种分析方法只是对CDM项目开发各项优势的列举,汇总得出结论,特别对水电CDM项目的开发,都是从区域水能开发能力考虑的。两种方法都是从大范围区域考虑分析CDM潜力的,因此作者提出应用GIS技术对水电CDM小区域性的开发潜力进行评价分析,小区域范围内确定评价因子,以图形可视化的方式评价研究区域水电CDM潜力,为相关管理部门提供辅助决策。
本文以云南省为研究区域,对影响水电CDM开发的因子进行分析,筛选出人均GDP增长率、单位GDP能耗、单位GDP电耗、降水量、水力发电量、水电比重、各地区每平方公里产水量、年径流深、CDM信息推广等9个参评因子;根据收集到的相关数据,分析了各参评因子与水电CDM项目开发的关系,并参考专家的意见,完成了各因子的级别划分;采用层次分析法确定了各参评因子的权重,从而最终建立了云南省水电CDM潜力评价指标体系。
以构建的云南省水电CDM潜力评价指标体系为核心,在对云南省水电CDM潜力评价信息系统进行详细分析的基础上,对系统的数据处理流程、总体结构及主要功能等进行了较为完整的设计;采用面向对象编程思想,利用可视化开发语言Visual C++和ESRI公司的ArcGIS Engine组件式开发平台,实现了云南省水电CDM潜力评价信息系统。
最后,应用云南省2000年-2006年的评价因子量化数值,利用该系统对研究区进行了水电CDM潜力评价,即云南省水电CDM潜力综合评价,评价结果与目前云南省水电CDM开发状况基本一致。
The Clean Development Mechanism(CDM)provides industrialized countries with an incentive to invest in emission reduction projects in developing countries to achieve a reduction in CO_2 emissions at a low cost that also promotes sustainable development in the host country.The Clean Development Mechanism is a "win-win" mechanism,which makes regional economy to get environmental protection and economic development.
There are two ways reportedly to study the potential of the CDM projects.The first is the application of professional analysis of relevant mathematical models,from the international point of view to explore and identify the CDM potential in the study area;the second is only taking into account the resource advantages of the study area.The first method is relatively strong professional.Applying the second method to evaluate the CDM potential,the time and the degree of the regional economic development and so on are not considered.The author put forward that we evaluate the CDM potential of the small hydropower in a graphical visualization way by applying GIS technology;the method can provide the decision-making reference for the relevant departments.
This paper deals with the relations between the small hydropower CDM projects and influence indexes,based on the field investigation data and the referenced opinions of the experts.The small hydropower CDM regional potential assessing system is established through a series process such as analysis of relations between the influencing indexes and the CDM potential.Every index is decided through the relevant mathematical ways,and its weight is drawn by the AHP method.The factors in the small hydropower CDM regional potential assessing system include the per capita GDP growth rate,unit GDP energy consumption,unit GDP power consumption,precipitation,hydroelectric power capacity, regional water productivity per square kilometer,runoff,and the CDM message.
Taking the small hydropower CDM assessing system as the core part,this paper described the design of the total structure,data process,main function and so on of the small hydropower CDM assessing information system.With OOP idea,based on the.NET Framework frame and ArcGIS Engine,the small hydropower CDM assessing information system is established.
Finally,the assess system is applied in the study of the regional CDM potential of small hydropower in the province of Yunnan,and the comprehensive evaluation result is nearly the same as the real life situation.
目前,国内外对CDM项目的开发潜力分析评价主要从两个方面考虑,其一是应用专业性的数学模型进行分析,从国际角度来探讨并确定中国的CDM分部门潜力;其二为在研究区域范围内,根据研究地区的资源优势归纳出研究区域建立CDM项目的潜力。第一种方法专业性比较强,并且是定量化的表现了CDM开发建设的潜力,专业的数据表格图形对非专业人士来说,比较艰涩难懂,难于对CDM项目相关信息进行推广普及,致使许多适合开发的项目没有被发现;第二种分析方法只是对CDM项目开发各项优势的列举,汇总得出结论,特别对水电CDM项目的开发,都是从区域水能开发能力考虑的。两种方法都是从大范围区域考虑分析CDM潜力的,因此作者提出应用GIS技术对水电CDM小区域性的开发潜力进行评价分析,小区域范围内确定评价因子,以图形可视化的方式评价研究区域水电CDM潜力,为相关管理部门提供辅助决策。
本文以云南省为研究区域,对影响水电CDM开发的因子进行分析,筛选出人均GDP增长率、单位GDP能耗、单位GDP电耗、降水量、水力发电量、水电比重、各地区每平方公里产水量、年径流深、CDM信息推广等9个参评因子;根据收集到的相关数据,分析了各参评因子与水电CDM项目开发的关系,并参考专家的意见,完成了各因子的级别划分;采用层次分析法确定了各参评因子的权重,从而最终建立了云南省水电CDM潜力评价指标体系。
以构建的云南省水电CDM潜力评价指标体系为核心,在对云南省水电CDM潜力评价信息系统进行详细分析的基础上,对系统的数据处理流程、总体结构及主要功能等进行了较为完整的设计;采用面向对象编程思想,利用可视化开发语言Visual C++和ESRI公司的ArcGIS Engine组件式开发平台,实现了云南省水电CDM潜力评价信息系统。
最后,应用云南省2000年-2006年的评价因子量化数值,利用该系统对研究区进行了水电CDM潜力评价,即云南省水电CDM潜力综合评价,评价结果与目前云南省水电CDM开发状况基本一致。
The Clean Development Mechanism(CDM)provides industrialized countries with an incentive to invest in emission reduction projects in developing countries to achieve a reduction in CO_2 emissions at a low cost that also promotes sustainable development in the host country.The Clean Development Mechanism is a "win-win" mechanism,which makes regional economy to get environmental protection and economic development.
There are two ways reportedly to study the potential of the CDM projects.The first is the application of professional analysis of relevant mathematical models,from the international point of view to explore and identify the CDM potential in the study area;the second is only taking into account the resource advantages of the study area.The first method is relatively strong professional.Applying the second method to evaluate the CDM potential,the time and the degree of the regional economic development and so on are not considered.The author put forward that we evaluate the CDM potential of the small hydropower in a graphical visualization way by applying GIS technology;the method can provide the decision-making reference for the relevant departments.
This paper deals with the relations between the small hydropower CDM projects and influence indexes,based on the field investigation data and the referenced opinions of the experts.The small hydropower CDM regional potential assessing system is established through a series process such as analysis of relations between the influencing indexes and the CDM potential.Every index is decided through the relevant mathematical ways,and its weight is drawn by the AHP method.The factors in the small hydropower CDM regional potential assessing system include the per capita GDP growth rate,unit GDP energy consumption,unit GDP power consumption,precipitation,hydroelectric power capacity, regional water productivity per square kilometer,runoff,and the CDM message.
Taking the small hydropower CDM assessing system as the core part,this paper described the design of the total structure,data process,main function and so on of the small hydropower CDM assessing information system.With OOP idea,based on the.NET Framework frame and ArcGIS Engine,the small hydropower CDM assessing information system is established.
Finally,the assess system is applied in the study of the regional CDM potential of small hydropower in the province of Yunnan,and the comprehensive evaluation result is nearly the same as the real life situation.
引文
[1]http://www.cctv.com/special/586/-1/30687.html
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[3]中国电力年鉴编辑委员会.中国电力年鉴.北京:中国电力出版社,2002-2005,591-670
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[7]Pablo Del Rio,Encouraging the implementation of small renewable electricity CDM projects:An economic analysis of different options.Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews.
[8]ZhongXiang Zhang,Toward an effective implementation of clean development mechanism projects in China.Energy Policy 34(2006)3691-3701
[9]严慧敏,清洁发展机制在风电行业市场的潜力分析[J].湖北电力,2005.12
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[11]Pallav Purohit,CDM potential of solar water heating systems in India,Solar Energy(2008)
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[22]史舟.管彦良.王援高等.基于GIS的县级柑橘适宜性评价咨询系统研制[J].浙江大学学报,2002,28(5):492、494
[23]文斌.郡明安.组件式GIS技术构建的小流域水土保持信息系统[J].计算机工程与应用,2006,32(13):243-245
[24]刘光.地理信息系统二次开发教程[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2003,105-11
[25]肖海.基于ArcGIS Engine的农业资源管理信息系统的研究[D].西南大学,2006,4-19
[26]阎波杰.基于户ArcGIS Engine地理信息系统的二次开发[D].西安科技大学,2006,5-15
[27]刘金龙.基于ArcGIS Engine开发的大连市路灯地理信息系统[J].大连理工大学,2006,14-19
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[29]黄猛.ArcGIS Engine组件在水土保持决策支持系统开发中的应用研究——以辽宁省朝阳市为例[D].东北师范大学硕士学位论文,2007
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[38]白树明.浅析云南水资源问题与对策,珠江现代建设,2002.2
[39]黄英.云南省水环境状况及问题分析,人民长江,2002.7
[40]伍立群.云南水资源的再认识,水资源研究,2002.3
[41]张照伟.云南水资源可持续利用与发展,昆明理工大学学报,2002.6
[42]唐一清,《云南省水资源特征》,水资源研究,1996.3
[43]张森.云南水资源开发与管理,云南地理环境研究,1994.1
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[45]程夏蕾.小水电清洁发展机制项目开发[J].小水电,2006年第二期
[46]张兴华.张筱鹏.云南省清洁发展机制项目潜力调研.环境科学导刊,2007.26(1)
[47]Nitin Tanwar,Clean development mechanism and off-grid small-scale hydropower projects:Evaluation of additionality,Energy Policy 35(2007)714-721
[48]云南省能源统计年鉴[M].2000-2005年
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[2]Clean Development Mechanism Project Design Document Form.CDM Executive Board(2004)
[3]中国电力年鉴编辑委员会.中国电力年鉴.北京:中国电力出版社,2002-2005,591-670
[4]UNFCCC,京都议定书,1997.http://unfccc.int/resouce/docs/convkp/kpchinese.pdf http://www.shp.com.cn/skins/shp/lsh/five/web/fy7.asp
[5]吕学都.刘德顺,清洁发展机制在中国.北京:清华大学出版社,2005:20-21,35-36
[6]刘谨.查武堂,清洁发展机制在西部小水电发展中的潜力与效益分析[J].资源与环境,2007.2
[7]Pablo Del Rio,Encouraging the implementation of small renewable electricity CDM projects:An economic analysis of different options.Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews.
[8]ZhongXiang Zhang,Toward an effective implementation of clean development mechanism projects in China.Energy Policy 34(2006)3691-3701
[9]严慧敏,清洁发展机制在风电行业市场的潜力分析[J].湖北电力,2005.12
[10]王灿.陈吉宁.邹骥,中国实施清洁发展机制的潜力分析[J].中国环境科学,2005,25(3):310-314
[11]Pallav Purohit,CDM potential of solar water heating systems in India,Solar Energy(2008)
[12]付蓉,发电企业开发CDM项目的意义和潜力分析[J].能源与环境,2006.8
[13]HaoxiangJiang.CDM Capacity Building in China.DNV Certification,2005
[14]CDM Executive Board.Reports of EB,meetings.2004.http://cdm.unfccc.int/FB/Meeting
[15]清华大学核能与新能源技术研究院,中国清洁发展机制项目开发指南[M].北京:中国环境科学出版社,2006
[16]国家发展改革委能源研究所,国内外对CDM问题的研究状况 http://cdm.cechina.gov.cn/
[17]邬伦等.地理信息系统教程[M].北京大学出版社,1994
[18]中国清洁发展机制网 http://cdm.ccchina.gov.cn/web/index.asp
[19]www.cdmpipeline.org,www.cd4cdm.org
[20]刘元岐等.新世纪的云南能源[M].云南人民出版社,2002.10
[21]王少安.地理信息系统及其发展趋势[J].焦作工学院学报,2001,20(3):217-218
[22]史舟.管彦良.王援高等.基于GIS的县级柑橘适宜性评价咨询系统研制[J].浙江大学学报,2002,28(5):492、494
[23]文斌.郡明安.组件式GIS技术构建的小流域水土保持信息系统[J].计算机工程与应用,2006,32(13):243-245
[24]刘光.地理信息系统二次开发教程[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2003,105-11
[25]肖海.基于ArcGIS Engine的农业资源管理信息系统的研究[D].西南大学,2006,4-19
[26]阎波杰.基于户ArcGIS Engine地理信息系统的二次开发[D].西安科技大学,2006,5-15
[27]刘金龙.基于ArcGIS Engine开发的大连市路灯地理信息系统[J].大连理工大学,2006,14-19
[28]熊利亚.新一代资源管理与决策支持系统[J].资源科学,1998(1):32-236
[29]黄猛.ArcGIS Engine组件在水土保持决策支持系统开发中的应用研究——以辽宁省朝阳市为例[D].东北师范大学硕士学位论文,2007
[30]ArcObjects Developer Help.ESRI.2002
[31]Michael Zeiler(editor).Exploring ArcObjects[M].ESRI Press,2001
[32]Developing Applications with ArcGIS Engine.Copyright(?)2004 ESRI.All rights reserved.
[33]许晓慧.向南平.基于ArcGIS Engine的开发原理和方法的探讨[D].城市规划.2006.2
[34]刘光.地理信息系统二次开发教程[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2003
[35]http://yunnan.ccpit.org/shengqing/diliweizhi_1.htm
[36]云南省水利厅,1999年云南省水资源公报,林业工作参考,2001.1
[37]刘元岐.建设以水电为主的云南电力支柱产业几个问题的探讨,云南水力发电,2001.3
[38]白树明.浅析云南水资源问题与对策,珠江现代建设,2002.2
[39]黄英.云南省水环境状况及问题分析,人民长江,2002.7
[40]伍立群.云南水资源的再认识,水资源研究,2002.3
[41]张照伟.云南水资源可持续利用与发展,昆明理工大学学报,2002.6
[42]唐一清,《云南省水资源特征》,水资源研究,1996.3
[43]张森.云南水资源开发与管理,云南地理环境研究,1994.1
[44]http://www.china.com.cn/chinese/EC-c/1168867.htm
[45]程夏蕾.小水电清洁发展机制项目开发[J].小水电,2006年第二期
[46]张兴华.张筱鹏.云南省清洁发展机制项目潜力调研.环境科学导刊,2007.26(1)
[47]Nitin Tanwar,Clean development mechanism and off-grid small-scale hydropower projects:Evaluation of additionality,Energy Policy 35(2007)714-721
[48]云南省能源统计年鉴[M].2000-2005年
[49]云南省统计局.云南省统计年鉴[M].2000-2006,北京:中国统计出版社
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