中国近零排放煤基电站技术经济评估
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摘要
技术经济评估是发展近零排放煤基电站的重要前期研究内容。本文发展了主要设备性能成本模型,以此为基础提出了一套适用于我国国情的近零排放煤基电站经济性评价方法,在同一比较基准下对捕集CO2的超(超)临界和采用不同气化技术的IGCC方案进行了技术经济比较,并为我国近零排放煤基电站的发展提出了政策建议。
首先总结分析了国际现有的技术经济研究方法。根据我国的实际情况,建立了IGCC主要单元和CO2捕集的投资成本预测模型。
参考国际上广泛采用的IGCC电站经济性评价方法和我国燃煤电站的技术经济概算方法,由下至上地建立了IGCC电站总投资的概算框架。结合文献及实际工程可研数据,确定了各项经济性假定的参考值,建立了适用于我国国情的、以技术性能参数为输入量的IGCC电站经济性评价平台。
运用该经济性评价平台对我国IGCC电站技术方案及煤基电站捕集CO2技术方案进行了技术经济评价。结果表明,新建400MWe级IGCC电站平均比投资(按供电容量计算)约为7582元／kW,发电成本约为0.43元／kWh,盈亏平衡含税上网电价约为0.51元／kWh。在90%CO2捕集率下,比投资为10834元／kW,提高了43%。发电成本为0.53元／kWh,盈亏平衡含税上网电价约为0.65元／kWh,分别增加了23%和27%。常规煤粉电站采取捕集措施后,比投资由4235元／kW增至7867元／kW,发电成本由0.25元／kWh上涨至0.47元／kWh,分别增加了86%和90%。
对不确定性因素进行了敏感性分析,研究了年发电小时、煤价、总投资以及技术进步情景下比投资、装机容量、供电效率和可用率对经济性的影响。研究了推动当前中国IGCC电站发展的政策组合。结果表明：当前阶段若给予IGCC电站20年期无息贷款、15%的所得税率及低于9.4%的增值税率,煤炭价格为500元／t时,电站盈亏平衡上网电价(含税)将降至0.34元／kWh。若技术进步导致比投资降低30%、供电效率增至48%、供电功率增至600MW且年发电小时为6500h时,IGCC电站的盈亏平衡含税上网电价将降至0.41元,较当前水平下降了21%。
对不同的CO2处置方式和减排政策进行了情景分析,明确了采取捕集措施的决策临界点和具体技术选择。研究表明,在当前阶段,捕集CO2的常规煤粉炉电站在CO2出售和排放权交易情景下更具竞争力,而捕集CO2的IGCC电站在征收碳税情景下更具竞争力。如IGCC电站比投资下降30%,碳税税率高于249元/tCO2, IGCC捕集电站的发电成本将低于不采取捕集措施的IGCC或煤粉炉电站,同时也低于煤粉炉带捕集电站。
本文在当前及未来技术进步的情景下,对各项敏感性因素和政策组合将如何影响中国IGCC电站以及近零排放煤基电站经济性所做的研究,对中国发展近零排放煤基电站的技术选择和政策制定具有一定的参考价值。
The techno-economic evaluation is the significant research content of the near-zero emissions coal-based power station in R&D study. In this work, an economic forecast and evaluation methods for the near-zero emissions coal-based power station is built by improving the performance-cost model for the main units, which is suitable for the national conditions of China. Based on the same benchmark, the techno-economic coMParation of supercritical (ultra supercritical) power station and IGCC power station with different gasification technology are made. Moreover, some policy proposals are given for the development of the near-zero emissions coal-based power station in China.
First of all, the international existing research methods and system are summarized. Then, according to the national conditions of China, the cost model of the main units of IGCC and the CO2 capture facilities is built.
Considering international IGCC power station economic evaluation methods and China feasibility study methods, the total capital requirements budget method of China's IGCC power station is built. According to the references and practical engineering data, the referenced values of economic assumptions are confirmed. An IGCC economic evaluation software platform that fits the national conditions of China is built which takes the technical performance parameters as its input parameter.
By using the platform, the techno-economic evaluations are made to the technology programs of China's IGCC and near-zero emissions coal-based power stations. The results indicates that the average investment of greenfield 400MWe IGCC power station in China is about 7582 Yuan/kW, the average COE is about 0.43 Yuan/kWh and the Break-even electricity price including tax is about 0.51 Yuan/kWh. If 90% CO2 is captured in IGCC power station, the investment will increase to 10834 Yuan/kW (43% increase), while the COE will increase to 0.53 Yuan/kWh (23% increase) and the Break-even electricity price including tax is about 0.65 Yuan/kWh (27% increase). If capture 90% CO2 in PC power station, the investment will increase from 4235 Yuan/kW to 7867 Yuan/kW (86% increase), while the COE will increase from 0.25 Yuan/kWh to 0.47 Yuan/kWh (90% increase).
Sensitivity analysis is made about the main uncertainty factors in the current and technological progress scenarios. The influence of some uncertainty factors to the economical efficiency has been studied, for example, the annual operating hours, coal price, total investment, and the specific investment, installed capability, power supply efficiency and available rate. The policy mix is studied which prompt the development of IGCC in China. The results indicate that, if the policies mix including 20 years interest-free loan, income tax rate of 15%, value added tax rate of 9.4% below and coal price of 500 Yuan/t have been supplied to an IGCC power station, the Break-even electricity price including tax is decreased to 0.34 Yuan/kWh. If the technical improvements cause a 30% decrease to the investment, a 48% increase to the power supply efficiency, power supply increase to 600WM and the annual operating hours increase to 6500h, the Break-even electricity price including tax will be decrease to 0.41 Yuan/kWh, means a 21% decrease to the nowadays.
In this wok, a scenario analysis about different CO2 treatment methods and the carbon emission reduction policy have been made, and then the critical point and the specific technology selection are confirmed. Currently, the pulverized coal power station will be more competitive with CO2 sale and CDM contract. However, the IGCC power station will be more competitive with a carbon tax policy. For example, when the investment of IGCC decrease 30% and the carbon tax rate is higher than 249 Yuan/tCO2, the COE of an IGCC power station with CO2 capture will be not higher than a IGCC power station without CO2 capture, a PC power station, or a PC power station with CO2 capture.
In the current and technological progress scenarios, this thesis studies the sensitivity factors and policies mix to comfirm how they could affect the economic performance of the IGCC and near-zero emissions coal-based power stations. This has important value for China to formulate policy and develop roadmap of near-zero emissions coal-based power stations.
首先总结分析了国际现有的技术经济研究方法。根据我国的实际情况,建立了IGCC主要单元和CO2捕集的投资成本预测模型。
参考国际上广泛采用的IGCC电站经济性评价方法和我国燃煤电站的技术经济概算方法,由下至上地建立了IGCC电站总投资的概算框架。结合文献及实际工程可研数据,确定了各项经济性假定的参考值,建立了适用于我国国情的、以技术性能参数为输入量的IGCC电站经济性评价平台。
运用该经济性评价平台对我国IGCC电站技术方案及煤基电站捕集CO2技术方案进行了技术经济评价。结果表明,新建400MWe级IGCC电站平均比投资(按供电容量计算)约为7582元／kW,发电成本约为0.43元／kWh,盈亏平衡含税上网电价约为0.51元／kWh。在90%CO2捕集率下,比投资为10834元／kW,提高了43%。发电成本为0.53元／kWh,盈亏平衡含税上网电价约为0.65元／kWh,分别增加了23%和27%。常规煤粉电站采取捕集措施后,比投资由4235元／kW增至7867元／kW,发电成本由0.25元／kWh上涨至0.47元／kWh,分别增加了86%和90%。
对不确定性因素进行了敏感性分析,研究了年发电小时、煤价、总投资以及技术进步情景下比投资、装机容量、供电效率和可用率对经济性的影响。研究了推动当前中国IGCC电站发展的政策组合。结果表明：当前阶段若给予IGCC电站20年期无息贷款、15%的所得税率及低于9.4%的增值税率,煤炭价格为500元／t时,电站盈亏平衡上网电价(含税)将降至0.34元／kWh。若技术进步导致比投资降低30%、供电效率增至48%、供电功率增至600MW且年发电小时为6500h时,IGCC电站的盈亏平衡含税上网电价将降至0.41元,较当前水平下降了21%。
对不同的CO2处置方式和减排政策进行了情景分析,明确了采取捕集措施的决策临界点和具体技术选择。研究表明,在当前阶段,捕集CO2的常规煤粉炉电站在CO2出售和排放权交易情景下更具竞争力,而捕集CO2的IGCC电站在征收碳税情景下更具竞争力。如IGCC电站比投资下降30%,碳税税率高于249元/tCO2, IGCC捕集电站的发电成本将低于不采取捕集措施的IGCC或煤粉炉电站,同时也低于煤粉炉带捕集电站。
本文在当前及未来技术进步的情景下,对各项敏感性因素和政策组合将如何影响中国IGCC电站以及近零排放煤基电站经济性所做的研究,对中国发展近零排放煤基电站的技术选择和政策制定具有一定的参考价值。
The techno-economic evaluation is the significant research content of the near-zero emissions coal-based power station in R&D study. In this work, an economic forecast and evaluation methods for the near-zero emissions coal-based power station is built by improving the performance-cost model for the main units, which is suitable for the national conditions of China. Based on the same benchmark, the techno-economic coMParation of supercritical (ultra supercritical) power station and IGCC power station with different gasification technology are made. Moreover, some policy proposals are given for the development of the near-zero emissions coal-based power station in China.
First of all, the international existing research methods and system are summarized. Then, according to the national conditions of China, the cost model of the main units of IGCC and the CO2 capture facilities is built.
Considering international IGCC power station economic evaluation methods and China feasibility study methods, the total capital requirements budget method of China's IGCC power station is built. According to the references and practical engineering data, the referenced values of economic assumptions are confirmed. An IGCC economic evaluation software platform that fits the national conditions of China is built which takes the technical performance parameters as its input parameter.
By using the platform, the techno-economic evaluations are made to the technology programs of China's IGCC and near-zero emissions coal-based power stations. The results indicates that the average investment of greenfield 400MWe IGCC power station in China is about 7582 Yuan/kW, the average COE is about 0.43 Yuan/kWh and the Break-even electricity price including tax is about 0.51 Yuan/kWh. If 90% CO2 is captured in IGCC power station, the investment will increase to 10834 Yuan/kW (43% increase), while the COE will increase to 0.53 Yuan/kWh (23% increase) and the Break-even electricity price including tax is about 0.65 Yuan/kWh (27% increase). If capture 90% CO2 in PC power station, the investment will increase from 4235 Yuan/kW to 7867 Yuan/kW (86% increase), while the COE will increase from 0.25 Yuan/kWh to 0.47 Yuan/kWh (90% increase).
Sensitivity analysis is made about the main uncertainty factors in the current and technological progress scenarios. The influence of some uncertainty factors to the economical efficiency has been studied, for example, the annual operating hours, coal price, total investment, and the specific investment, installed capability, power supply efficiency and available rate. The policy mix is studied which prompt the development of IGCC in China. The results indicate that, if the policies mix including 20 years interest-free loan, income tax rate of 15%, value added tax rate of 9.4% below and coal price of 500 Yuan/t have been supplied to an IGCC power station, the Break-even electricity price including tax is decreased to 0.34 Yuan/kWh. If the technical improvements cause a 30% decrease to the investment, a 48% increase to the power supply efficiency, power supply increase to 600WM and the annual operating hours increase to 6500h, the Break-even electricity price including tax will be decrease to 0.41 Yuan/kWh, means a 21% decrease to the nowadays.
In this wok, a scenario analysis about different CO2 treatment methods and the carbon emission reduction policy have been made, and then the critical point and the specific technology selection are confirmed. Currently, the pulverized coal power station will be more competitive with CO2 sale and CDM contract. However, the IGCC power station will be more competitive with a carbon tax policy. For example, when the investment of IGCC decrease 30% and the carbon tax rate is higher than 249 Yuan/tCO2, the COE of an IGCC power station with CO2 capture will be not higher than a IGCC power station without CO2 capture, a PC power station, or a PC power station with CO2 capture.
In the current and technological progress scenarios, this thesis studies the sensitivity factors and policies mix to comfirm how they could affect the economic performance of the IGCC and near-zero emissions coal-based power stations. This has important value for China to formulate policy and develop roadmap of near-zero emissions coal-based power stations.
引文
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[2]黄河,何芬,李政,et al.中国整体煤气化联合循环电厂的经济性估算模型[J].动力工程,2008,28(04)：633-638.
[3]Al-Juaied M, Whitmore A. Realistic Costs of Carbon Capture [D]; Harvard Kennedy School, 2009.
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