大伙房水库径流中长期预报方法应用研究
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摘要
进入21世纪,作为支撑社会、经济和生态环境可持续发展的水资源,其危机日益严重,开展中长期水文预报已势在必行。正确和及时的中长期水文预报,对防汛、抗旱及发挥水利设施的经济效益有重要作用,它能够使人们在解决防洪与抗旱、蓄水与弃水及各部门用水之间矛盾时及早采取措施进行统筹安排,并使综合效益达到最大化。因此,水文中长期预报在水资源合理配置与充分利用方面具有重要参考价值,积极开展中长期水文预报是非常有必要的。
中长期水文预报方法很多,但针对特定流域并不是所有方法都适用。论文选取辽宁省大伙房水库为研究对象,采用SPSS统计软件的时间序列分析预测方法、主成分分析的多元回归分析以及小波分析技术分析方法,对大伙房水库年径流进行预测,目的是为该流域选取可用于作业预报、可靠性较高的中长期水文预报模型,为水库防洪、灌溉、发电、供水提供有价值的参考依据。主要研究成果如下:
(1)根据大伙房水库年径流序列的长期变化特征,以1956-2000这45年的年径流实测资料为依据,结合SPSS统计软件,建立大伙房水库水文中长期预报时间序列分析模型;以2001-2005年5年年径流资料进行参数率定,验证结果表明所建立的模型预测精度相对较低,推广意义不是很大。
(2)将物理成因分析方法和数理统计法相结合,初步选取10个大伙房年径流的影响因子,结合主成分分析方法对初步的影响因子进行筛选,得到5个综合因子,应用SPSS统计分析软件对综合因子进行logistic曲线拟合,并建立多元线性回归预报模型。经验证,所建模型内推预报的拟合精度较高,而且具备较高的预测精度。
(3)利用Matlab软件的小波分析包对大伙房水库径流序列进行小波多尺度分解,并在此基础上,结合DPS9.5计算软件,建立基于小波分析技术的大伙房水库中长期预报模型。经验证,该模型具有较高的预测精度,但是该模型的内推预报的拟合效果,相对于建立的基于主成分分析的多元回归模型的内推预报拟合效果较低。
When human society comes into 21st century, water resources, being as the supporting of the social, economic and ecological sustainable development, whose crisis becomes more and more worsening. So carrying on Mid-long Term Runoff Forecast is great significant to exploit and optimize water resources rationally and to promote regional socio-economic development better. Correct and timely Mid-long Term Runoff Forecast plays an important role in flood-control, drought-resistance and economic benefits of water conservancy facilities, which will enable people to settle contradictions between each water department and take early measures to maximize integrated efficiency. Therefore, Mid-long Term Hydrologic Forecast has importantly reference value in the rational allocation and the full utilization of water resources, and it’s necessary for us to carry out Mid-long Term Hydrologic Forecast actively.
There are kinds of models about Mid-long Term Hydrologic Forecast, but none is suitable to each basin. The paper takes DaHuofang Reservoir as the research object, based on the long term change characteristics of its annual runoff time series of 50 years from1956 to 2005, uses time series analysis and forecasting method of SPSS, multiple regression analysis of main component analysis method, and wavelet analysis method, to carry out the hydrological forecast of Dahuofang Reservoir. The aim is to establish a Mid-long Term Hydrologic Forecast model has higher reliability prediction result, which can provide a valuable reference for flood-control, irrigation, power generation, water supply, water-provide. The paper’s main research results are as follows:
(1)Based on the long term change characteristics of its annual runoff time series of 50 years from1956 to 2005, combined with SPSS, establishes a mathematics model of time series analysis and forecasting method of SPSS, takes five-year annual runoff data from 2001 to 2005 to calibrate the model. The result shows that the predictions are relatively low that the model can not be used extensively.
(2)According to two approaches physical cause analysis and mathematical statistics analysis, preliminarily selects 10 annual runoff impact factors of Dahuofang Reservoir, combining with main component analysis method to screen the initial impact factors, receives five integrated factors, conducts logistic curve fitting to the integrated factors by SPSS, and establishes multiple linear regression forecast model. The results show that this model has higher simulation accuracy.
(3)With the wavelet analysis package tool in Matlab software to decompose the annual runoff series of Dahuofang Reservoir, combining with DPS9.5 on its basis, sets up Dahuofang Reservoir mid -long term forecast model based on wavelet analysis method. The results show that the model has higher prediction accuracy, but whose inside fitting forecast result are lower than the multiple regression model established based on principal component analysis.
中长期水文预报方法很多,但针对特定流域并不是所有方法都适用。论文选取辽宁省大伙房水库为研究对象,采用SPSS统计软件的时间序列分析预测方法、主成分分析的多元回归分析以及小波分析技术分析方法,对大伙房水库年径流进行预测,目的是为该流域选取可用于作业预报、可靠性较高的中长期水文预报模型,为水库防洪、灌溉、发电、供水提供有价值的参考依据。主要研究成果如下:
(1)根据大伙房水库年径流序列的长期变化特征,以1956-2000这45年的年径流实测资料为依据,结合SPSS统计软件,建立大伙房水库水文中长期预报时间序列分析模型;以2001-2005年5年年径流资料进行参数率定,验证结果表明所建立的模型预测精度相对较低,推广意义不是很大。
(2)将物理成因分析方法和数理统计法相结合,初步选取10个大伙房年径流的影响因子,结合主成分分析方法对初步的影响因子进行筛选,得到5个综合因子,应用SPSS统计分析软件对综合因子进行logistic曲线拟合,并建立多元线性回归预报模型。经验证,所建模型内推预报的拟合精度较高,而且具备较高的预测精度。
(3)利用Matlab软件的小波分析包对大伙房水库径流序列进行小波多尺度分解,并在此基础上,结合DPS9.5计算软件,建立基于小波分析技术的大伙房水库中长期预报模型。经验证,该模型具有较高的预测精度,但是该模型的内推预报的拟合效果,相对于建立的基于主成分分析的多元回归模型的内推预报拟合效果较低。
When human society comes into 21st century, water resources, being as the supporting of the social, economic and ecological sustainable development, whose crisis becomes more and more worsening. So carrying on Mid-long Term Runoff Forecast is great significant to exploit and optimize water resources rationally and to promote regional socio-economic development better. Correct and timely Mid-long Term Runoff Forecast plays an important role in flood-control, drought-resistance and economic benefits of water conservancy facilities, which will enable people to settle contradictions between each water department and take early measures to maximize integrated efficiency. Therefore, Mid-long Term Hydrologic Forecast has importantly reference value in the rational allocation and the full utilization of water resources, and it’s necessary for us to carry out Mid-long Term Hydrologic Forecast actively.
There are kinds of models about Mid-long Term Hydrologic Forecast, but none is suitable to each basin. The paper takes DaHuofang Reservoir as the research object, based on the long term change characteristics of its annual runoff time series of 50 years from1956 to 2005, uses time series analysis and forecasting method of SPSS, multiple regression analysis of main component analysis method, and wavelet analysis method, to carry out the hydrological forecast of Dahuofang Reservoir. The aim is to establish a Mid-long Term Hydrologic Forecast model has higher reliability prediction result, which can provide a valuable reference for flood-control, irrigation, power generation, water supply, water-provide. The paper’s main research results are as follows:
(1)Based on the long term change characteristics of its annual runoff time series of 50 years from1956 to 2005, combined with SPSS, establishes a mathematics model of time series analysis and forecasting method of SPSS, takes five-year annual runoff data from 2001 to 2005 to calibrate the model. The result shows that the predictions are relatively low that the model can not be used extensively.
(2)According to two approaches physical cause analysis and mathematical statistics analysis, preliminarily selects 10 annual runoff impact factors of Dahuofang Reservoir, combining with main component analysis method to screen the initial impact factors, receives five integrated factors, conducts logistic curve fitting to the integrated factors by SPSS, and establishes multiple linear regression forecast model. The results show that this model has higher simulation accuracy.
(3)With the wavelet analysis package tool in Matlab software to decompose the annual runoff series of Dahuofang Reservoir, combining with DPS9.5 on its basis, sets up Dahuofang Reservoir mid -long term forecast model based on wavelet analysis method. The results show that the model has higher prediction accuracy, but whose inside fitting forecast result are lower than the multiple regression model established based on principal component analysis.
引文
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[7]杨旭,栾继河,冯国章.中长期水文预报研究评述与展望.西北农业大学学报,2000.12,28(6):103-207.
[8]唐海行.密云水库汛期水量长期预报方法探讨.水文,1994(5):39-43.
[9]闵骞.含趋势项的周期叠加预报模式.江西水利科技,1996,22(3):150-154.
[10]冯耀龙,韩文秀.权马尔可夫链在河流丰枯状况预测中的应用.系统工程理论与实践.1999,19(10):89-93,98.
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[12]卢华友,邵东国,郭元格.丹江口水库径流长期预报研究[J].武汉水利电力大学学报,1996,29(6):6-10.
[13]冯国章.枯水径流预报的最优模糊划分自激励门限自回归模型[J].西北农业参考文献大学学报,1997,25(2):21—26.
[14]冯国章,王双银,王学斌.自激励门限自回归模型在枯水径流预报中的应用[J].西北农业大学学报,1995,23(4):78—83.
[15]陈明著.神经网络模型.大连:大连理工大学出版社,1995.
[16]陈守煜等著.水利水文水资源与环境模糊集分析.大连:大连工学院出版社,1987.
[17]陈守煜,许士国.径流分级长期预报的模糊聚类分析法.水利学报,1986(7):43-49.
[18]王本德编著.水文中长期预报模糊数学方法.大连:大连理工大学出版社.1993年4月.
[19]陈守煜.中长期水文预报综合分析理论模式与方法.水利学报,1997(8):15-21.
[20]李正最.谈灰色静态模型与多元线性回归模型的关系.水资源研究,1990,9(1):68-71.
[21]谢科范.评灰色系统理论.系统工程,1991,9(4):49-52.
[22]冯平,杨鹏,李润苗.枯水期径流量的中长期预报模式.水利水电技术,1992(2):6-9.
[23]夏军.中长期径流预估的一种灰色关联模式与预测方法.水科学进展.1993,4(3): 190-197.
[24]陈意平,李小牛.灰色系统理论在水利中的应用及前景.人民珠江,1996(1):25-27.
[25]钟桂芳.灰色变基模型在密云水库长期水文预报中的应用.北京水利,1996(3):47-50.
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