光伏监控系统发电预测及能量管理的研究
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摘要
随着太阳能在分布式发电系统中的不断应用,光伏监控系统成为一个重要的研究领域。本文主要以光伏监控系统为研究对象,从监控系统的拓扑结构、控制策略、发电预测、能量管理等方面做了详细分析和研究。
本文分析了光伏监控系统的不同拓扑结构及其各个部分的工作原理,讨论了远程数据通讯的实现方法。
本文详细分析了基于VB6.0的上位机人机监控界面的设计方案。重点给出了使用MSComm控件完成与下位机通讯的程序实现,Access数据库的建立和连接,基于Access数据库的数据表格制作,以及系统运行数据的曲线显示和数据报表显示的设计过程。
光伏阵列发电预测是光伏监控系统能量管理中急需解决的问题。本文分析了光伏阵列的输出特性,讨论了影响光伏阵列发电的各种因素,设计了一种新颖的基于神经网络的光伏阵列发电预测模型。采用光伏监控系统数据库中的历史发电数据和历史天气数据对模型进行了训练与仿真分析,预测结果验证了该模型的有效性。
本文分析了蓄电池的基本特性及其剩余容量预测,提出了光伏监控系统能量管理状态空间模型的设计方案,该模型管理光伏阵列发出的电能在电气负载和蓄电池之间的分配,使其得到合理的使用,并对蓄电池的充放电策略进行管理和保护,控制蓄电池充放电和管理负载用电。
As the solar energy’s applying in the distributed generation system, the research on photovoltaic monitor system becomes more and more important. This paper focuses on photovoltaic monitor system. The topology, control strategy, power forecasting and energy management of the monitor system are analyzed and studied. The main contents are as follow:
First, the performances and characteristics of PV monitor system with different topologies are described in details. Meanwhile, the technique of long-distance data communication is discussed.
Second, the paper presents monitor interface design of PC based on VB6.0, gives the communication method with controller using MSComm widget particularly, and introduces the foundation and connection of the Access database, the design method of data table, data curve, and data report.
Power forecasting is a critical issue in photovoltaic monitor system. In this paper, the basic character of photovoltaic array is analyzed, all kinds of factors to affect photovoltaic array are discussed and a novel photovoltaic power forecasting module based on neutral network is designed, which is trained and simulated by historical power and weather data provided by experiment.
According to the implementation about the charging, discharging, capacity prediction of storage batteries, the module of energy management is designed, which can accomplish the strategy for photovoltaic array's power control and the storage batteries' charging and discharging control. And reasonable utilization of the photovoltaic array's power is the main purpose of energy management.
本文分析了光伏监控系统的不同拓扑结构及其各个部分的工作原理,讨论了远程数据通讯的实现方法。
本文详细分析了基于VB6.0的上位机人机监控界面的设计方案。重点给出了使用MSComm控件完成与下位机通讯的程序实现,Access数据库的建立和连接,基于Access数据库的数据表格制作,以及系统运行数据的曲线显示和数据报表显示的设计过程。
光伏阵列发电预测是光伏监控系统能量管理中急需解决的问题。本文分析了光伏阵列的输出特性,讨论了影响光伏阵列发电的各种因素,设计了一种新颖的基于神经网络的光伏阵列发电预测模型。采用光伏监控系统数据库中的历史发电数据和历史天气数据对模型进行了训练与仿真分析,预测结果验证了该模型的有效性。
本文分析了蓄电池的基本特性及其剩余容量预测,提出了光伏监控系统能量管理状态空间模型的设计方案,该模型管理光伏阵列发出的电能在电气负载和蓄电池之间的分配,使其得到合理的使用,并对蓄电池的充放电策略进行管理和保护,控制蓄电池充放电和管理负载用电。
As the solar energy’s applying in the distributed generation system, the research on photovoltaic monitor system becomes more and more important. This paper focuses on photovoltaic monitor system. The topology, control strategy, power forecasting and energy management of the monitor system are analyzed and studied. The main contents are as follow:
First, the performances and characteristics of PV monitor system with different topologies are described in details. Meanwhile, the technique of long-distance data communication is discussed.
Second, the paper presents monitor interface design of PC based on VB6.0, gives the communication method with controller using MSComm widget particularly, and introduces the foundation and connection of the Access database, the design method of data table, data curve, and data report.
Power forecasting is a critical issue in photovoltaic monitor system. In this paper, the basic character of photovoltaic array is analyzed, all kinds of factors to affect photovoltaic array are discussed and a novel photovoltaic power forecasting module based on neutral network is designed, which is trained and simulated by historical power and weather data provided by experiment.
According to the implementation about the charging, discharging, capacity prediction of storage batteries, the module of energy management is designed, which can accomplish the strategy for photovoltaic array's power control and the storage batteries' charging and discharging control. And reasonable utilization of the photovoltaic array's power is the main purpose of energy management.
引文
[1]石东源.数字电力系统的数据建模及应用系统集成研究:[博士学位论文]。华中科技大学图书馆,2002.
[2]谈蓓月,杨金焕,葛亮.太阳能光伏并网系统的设计和数据通信.华东电力,2004,32(9):11~14
[3]舒杰,彭宏,沈辉等.光伏系统的远程监控技术与实现.华南理工大学学报,2005,33(5):43~47
[4]欧阳名三.独立光伏系统中蓄电池管理的研究:[博士学位论文]。合肥工业大学图书馆,2004.
[5] S.Liu. Design of Autonomous Photovoltaic Power Plant for Telecommunication Relay Station. IEE Generation, Transmission and Distribution, 2005, 152(6):745~754
[6]赵为.太阳能光伏并网发电系统的研究:[博士学位论文]。合肥工业大学图书馆,2003.
[7]陈超.光伏电站的远程数据通信及网络监控管理:[硕士学位论文]。合肥工业大学图书馆,2004.
[8]高秀伟.微波中继站太阳能供电远程监控系统的设计与研究:[硕士学位论文]。燕山大学,2002.
[9]刘福才,高秀伟,牛海涛.太阳能光伏电站远程监控系统的设计.仪器仪表学报,2002,23(3):418~419
[10]高嵩,倪原,张荷芳.一种基于Modem的计算机远程监控系统.西安工业学院学报,2005,25(1):45~47
[11] Mohamed Benghanem, Abdelbaki Maafi. Data Acquisition System for Photovoltaic Systems Performance Monitoring. Transactions on Instrumentation and Measurement, February 1998, 47(1):30~33
[12] Carlos Meza, Domingo Biel, Juan Negroni, et al. Boost-Buck Inverter Variable Structure Control for Grid-Connected Photovoltaic Systems with Sensorless MPPT. Proceedings of the IEEE International Symposium, 2005, 2:657~662
[13] Nicola Femia, Giovanni Petrone, Giovanni Spagnuolo, et al. Optimization of Perturb and Observe Maximum Power Point Tracking Method. IEEE Transactions on PowerElectronics, 2005, 20(4):963~973
[14] Shigeo Hashimoto, Toshiaki Yachi, Tatsuo Tani. A New Stand-Alone Hybrid Power System with Wind Generator and Photovoltaic Modules for a Radio Base Station. Photovoltaic Energy Conversion, 2004:254~259
[15] T.Kobayashi. Vision of the Future of the Photovoltaic Industry in Japan. Photovoltaic Energy Conversion, 2003:2538~2543
[16] K. Kurokawa, O. Ikki. The Japanese Experiences with National PV System Programmes. Solar Energy, 2001(6): 457~466
[17]张海良.光伏电站远程监控系统的设计和研究:[硕士学位论文]。燕山大学,2006.
[18]王冬云.基于VB和MSP430的太阳能电站监控系统的设计与实验研究:[硕士学位论文]。燕山大学,2006.
[19]堂乐尘,刘向国,李龙生.使用VB控件的关键技术.农业网络信息,2004(1):39~42
[20]范逸之.Visual Basic与RS-232串行通信控制.北京:清华大学出版社,2002.58~66
[21]曹青,邱李华,郭志强.Visual Basic程序设计教程.北京机械工业出版社,2000.251~256
[22] Yasuharu Ohsawa, Katsutoshi Higuma, Shin-ichi Emura, et al. Operation of Photovoltaic Power Generation Systems by Neural Network. IEEE International Conference on Neural Network, Sept. 1992:491~494
[23] Yasuharu Ohsawa, Shin-ichi Emura, Kenji Arai. Optimal Operation of Photovoltaic/diesel Power Generation System by Neural Network. Neural Networks to Power Systems, 1993:99~103
[24] Robert Hecht-Nielsen. Theory of the Backpropagation Neural Network. Neural Networks, International Joint Conference on Neural Network, June 1989:593~605
[25]飞思科技产品研发中心.MATLAB 6.5辅助神经网络分析与设计.北京:电子工业出版社,2003.64~69
[26] R. P. Lippmann. An Introduction to Computing with Neural Nets. IEEE ASSP Magazine, April 1987, 1: 4~22
[27] K. S. Narendra, K. Parthasarathy. Identification and Control of Dynamical Systems Using Neural Networks. IEEE Transactions on Neural Networks, March 1990, 1: 14~26
[28] D. Nguyen, B. Widrow. Improving the Learning Speed of 2-layer Neural Networks by Choosing Initial Values of the Adaptive Weights. Neural Networks, July 1990, 3:21~26
[29]马莹.基于神经网络集成的短期负荷预测方法研究:[硕士学位论文]。北京交通大学,2006.
[30]郝红勋.人工神经网络在航空发动机故障诊断中的应用:[硕士学位论文]。中国民用航空学院,2006.
[31] F. Kanaya, S. Miyake. Bayes Statistical Behavior and Valid Generalization of Pattern Classifying Neural Networks. Neural Networks, IEEE Transactions on Neural Network, July 1991, 2:471~475
[32] Xi Yu, Azimi Sadjadi. A Neural Network-based Sequential Bayes Classifier for Moving Target Discrimination. Neural Networks, International Joint Conference on Neural Network, July 1999, 5:3217~3220
[33] Xi Yu. Neural Network Directed Bayes Decision Rule for Moving Target Classification. Neural Networks, January 2000, 36:176~188
[34]飞思科技产品研发中心.神经网络理论与MATLAB 7实现.北京:电子工业出版社,2003.99~104
[35]韩力群.人工神经网络理论、设计及应用.化学工业出版社,2001.
[36]苏建徽,余世杰,赵为等.硅太阳电池工程用数学模型.太阳能学报,2001,22(4):409~412
[37] Francois Giraud. Analysis of the Effects of a Passing Cloud on a Grid-Interactive Photovoltaic System with Battery Storage using Neural Networks. IEEE Transactions on Energy Conversion, December 1999, 14(4): 1572~1577
[38] E.C. Kem, E.M. Culachenski, G. A. Ken. Cloud Effectss on Distributed Photovoltaic Generation, Massachusetts Photovoltaic Experiment. IEEE Transactions on Energy Conversion, June 1989, 4(2): 184~186
[39]陈闽江.光伏发电系统的蒙特卡罗序贯仿真和可靠性分析:[硕士学位论文]。合肥工业大学图书馆,2004.
[40]张乃尧,阎平凡.神经网络与模糊控制.清华大学出版社,1998.
[41]麻友良,陈全世,朱元.变电流下的电池荷电状态定义方法探讨.电池,2001.2:7~9
[42]朱松然.铅蓄电池技术(第二版).机械工业出版社,2002.
[43]齐国光,李建民等.电动汽车电量计量技术的研究.清华大学学报(自然科学版), 1997,37(3):46~49
[44] K.Thyagarajian. Enhancing Energy Generation by use of Efficient Control for Hybrid Energy Systems. Applied Energy, 1995, 52:255~263
[45] A.N. Celik. Optimisation and Techno-economic Analysis of Autonomous Photovoltaic Wind Hybrid Energy Systems in Comparison to Single Photovoltaic and Wind Systems. Energy Conversion and Management, 2002, 43:2453~2468
[46] W.D.Kellogg. Generation Unit Sizing and Cost Analysis for Stand-alonewind, Photovoltaic, and Hybrid Wind/PV Systems. Energy Conversion, 1998, 13(1):70~75
[2]谈蓓月,杨金焕,葛亮.太阳能光伏并网系统的设计和数据通信.华东电力,2004,32(9):11~14
[3]舒杰,彭宏,沈辉等.光伏系统的远程监控技术与实现.华南理工大学学报,2005,33(5):43~47
[4]欧阳名三.独立光伏系统中蓄电池管理的研究:[博士学位论文]。合肥工业大学图书馆,2004.
[5] S.Liu. Design of Autonomous Photovoltaic Power Plant for Telecommunication Relay Station. IEE Generation, Transmission and Distribution, 2005, 152(6):745~754
[6]赵为.太阳能光伏并网发电系统的研究:[博士学位论文]。合肥工业大学图书馆,2003.
[7]陈超.光伏电站的远程数据通信及网络监控管理:[硕士学位论文]。合肥工业大学图书馆,2004.
[8]高秀伟.微波中继站太阳能供电远程监控系统的设计与研究:[硕士学位论文]。燕山大学,2002.
[9]刘福才,高秀伟,牛海涛.太阳能光伏电站远程监控系统的设计.仪器仪表学报,2002,23(3):418~419
[10]高嵩,倪原,张荷芳.一种基于Modem的计算机远程监控系统.西安工业学院学报,2005,25(1):45~47
[11] Mohamed Benghanem, Abdelbaki Maafi. Data Acquisition System for Photovoltaic Systems Performance Monitoring. Transactions on Instrumentation and Measurement, February 1998, 47(1):30~33
[12] Carlos Meza, Domingo Biel, Juan Negroni, et al. Boost-Buck Inverter Variable Structure Control for Grid-Connected Photovoltaic Systems with Sensorless MPPT. Proceedings of the IEEE International Symposium, 2005, 2:657~662
[13] Nicola Femia, Giovanni Petrone, Giovanni Spagnuolo, et al. Optimization of Perturb and Observe Maximum Power Point Tracking Method. IEEE Transactions on PowerElectronics, 2005, 20(4):963~973
[14] Shigeo Hashimoto, Toshiaki Yachi, Tatsuo Tani. A New Stand-Alone Hybrid Power System with Wind Generator and Photovoltaic Modules for a Radio Base Station. Photovoltaic Energy Conversion, 2004:254~259
[15] T.Kobayashi. Vision of the Future of the Photovoltaic Industry in Japan. Photovoltaic Energy Conversion, 2003:2538~2543
[16] K. Kurokawa, O. Ikki. The Japanese Experiences with National PV System Programmes. Solar Energy, 2001(6): 457~466
[17]张海良.光伏电站远程监控系统的设计和研究:[硕士学位论文]。燕山大学,2006.
[18]王冬云.基于VB和MSP430的太阳能电站监控系统的设计与实验研究:[硕士学位论文]。燕山大学,2006.
[19]堂乐尘,刘向国,李龙生.使用VB控件的关键技术.农业网络信息,2004(1):39~42
[20]范逸之.Visual Basic与RS-232串行通信控制.北京:清华大学出版社,2002.58~66
[21]曹青,邱李华,郭志强.Visual Basic程序设计教程.北京机械工业出版社,2000.251~256
[22] Yasuharu Ohsawa, Katsutoshi Higuma, Shin-ichi Emura, et al. Operation of Photovoltaic Power Generation Systems by Neural Network. IEEE International Conference on Neural Network, Sept. 1992:491~494
[23] Yasuharu Ohsawa, Shin-ichi Emura, Kenji Arai. Optimal Operation of Photovoltaic/diesel Power Generation System by Neural Network. Neural Networks to Power Systems, 1993:99~103
[24] Robert Hecht-Nielsen. Theory of the Backpropagation Neural Network. Neural Networks, International Joint Conference on Neural Network, June 1989:593~605
[25]飞思科技产品研发中心.MATLAB 6.5辅助神经网络分析与设计.北京:电子工业出版社,2003.64~69
[26] R. P. Lippmann. An Introduction to Computing with Neural Nets. IEEE ASSP Magazine, April 1987, 1: 4~22
[27] K. S. Narendra, K. Parthasarathy. Identification and Control of Dynamical Systems Using Neural Networks. IEEE Transactions on Neural Networks, March 1990, 1: 14~26
[28] D. Nguyen, B. Widrow. Improving the Learning Speed of 2-layer Neural Networks by Choosing Initial Values of the Adaptive Weights. Neural Networks, July 1990, 3:21~26
[29]马莹.基于神经网络集成的短期负荷预测方法研究:[硕士学位论文]。北京交通大学,2006.
[30]郝红勋.人工神经网络在航空发动机故障诊断中的应用:[硕士学位论文]。中国民用航空学院,2006.
[31] F. Kanaya, S. Miyake. Bayes Statistical Behavior and Valid Generalization of Pattern Classifying Neural Networks. Neural Networks, IEEE Transactions on Neural Network, July 1991, 2:471~475
[32] Xi Yu, Azimi Sadjadi. A Neural Network-based Sequential Bayes Classifier for Moving Target Discrimination. Neural Networks, International Joint Conference on Neural Network, July 1999, 5:3217~3220
[33] Xi Yu. Neural Network Directed Bayes Decision Rule for Moving Target Classification. Neural Networks, January 2000, 36:176~188
[34]飞思科技产品研发中心.神经网络理论与MATLAB 7实现.北京:电子工业出版社,2003.99~104
[35]韩力群.人工神经网络理论、设计及应用.化学工业出版社,2001.
[36]苏建徽,余世杰,赵为等.硅太阳电池工程用数学模型.太阳能学报,2001,22(4):409~412
[37] Francois Giraud. Analysis of the Effects of a Passing Cloud on a Grid-Interactive Photovoltaic System with Battery Storage using Neural Networks. IEEE Transactions on Energy Conversion, December 1999, 14(4): 1572~1577
[38] E.C. Kem, E.M. Culachenski, G. A. Ken. Cloud Effectss on Distributed Photovoltaic Generation, Massachusetts Photovoltaic Experiment. IEEE Transactions on Energy Conversion, June 1989, 4(2): 184~186
[39]陈闽江.光伏发电系统的蒙特卡罗序贯仿真和可靠性分析:[硕士学位论文]。合肥工业大学图书馆,2004.
[40]张乃尧,阎平凡.神经网络与模糊控制.清华大学出版社,1998.
[41]麻友良,陈全世,朱元.变电流下的电池荷电状态定义方法探讨.电池,2001.2:7~9
[42]朱松然.铅蓄电池技术(第二版).机械工业出版社,2002.
[43]齐国光,李建民等.电动汽车电量计量技术的研究.清华大学学报(自然科学版), 1997,37(3):46~49
[44] K.Thyagarajian. Enhancing Energy Generation by use of Efficient Control for Hybrid Energy Systems. Applied Energy, 1995, 52:255~263
[45] A.N. Celik. Optimisation and Techno-economic Analysis of Autonomous Photovoltaic Wind Hybrid Energy Systems in Comparison to Single Photovoltaic and Wind Systems. Energy Conversion and Management, 2002, 43:2453~2468
[46] W.D.Kellogg. Generation Unit Sizing and Cost Analysis for Stand-alonewind, Photovoltaic, and Hybrid Wind/PV Systems. Energy Conversion, 1998, 13(1):70~75