基于孕灾环境的突发事件连锁反应模型研究
摘要
当前各类灾害及其连锁现象频发,对开展突发事件连锁反应研究提出了迫切的需求。但是当前对突发事件连锁反应的研究主要集中在自然灾害链方面,研究其它类事件的连锁反应和各类事件之间的连锁反应的较少。
为改变这一现状,本文以四大类突发事件为研究对象,把传统的针对自然灾害研究的灾害系统论扩展到其它类突发事件；从孕灾环境在突发事件连锁反应中的作用出发,提出了突发事件连锁反应机制,构建了突发事件连锁反应模型。本文的主要研究内容如下：
首先,介绍了主要研究单一自然灾害事件的灾害系统论；界定了本文研究的突发事件范围；面向四大类突发事件,分析了影响事件发生的因素,并总结了各类事件的孕灾环境；基于灾害系统论对各类突发事件的发生机理进行了比较。
其次,根据连锁特征把突发事件连锁反应划分成不同的类型,本文主要研究不同突发事件之间的异质连锁。总结了影响突发事件连锁反应的因素,并系统的分析了突发事件连锁反应与孕灾环境的关系。
再次,提出了基于孕灾环境的突发事件连锁反应机制；构建了突发事件连锁反应模型；抽取了突发事件的连锁反应流程；构建了“南方雪灾”连锁反应链实例。
最后,基于突发事件连锁反应模型,设计了相应的仿真方案：针对不同事件、不同区域环境对连锁反应的影响,进行了仿真实验；并以“吉林石化爆炸”事件为例对提出的建模方法进行了实例应用与验证。
本文的研究内容和结论对开展应急管理工作具有重要的意义：提出的突发事件发生机制和连锁反应机制,突破以往单一领域灾害研究和应急管理模式,有利于开展突发事件综合应急管理与综合减灾；构建的突发事件连锁反应模型,可以根据区域环境特征对可能发生的事件连锁反应进行预警预测,从而有效地辅助应急管理部门提前做好准备工作,极大的减少损失。
Recently, emergency& emergency chain-reaction occurred frequently. The study on the emergency chain-reaction is an urgent demand. However, the current researches pay more attention on natural disaster chain than other kinds. Even, the chain-reactions between other emergencies are still known less.
This paper is oriented to four categories of emergencies. It extends the disaster system theory to other emergencies; the chain-reactions between emergencies are analyzed based on disaster-pregnant environment (DE); the mechanisms of emergency chain-reaction are proposed; an emergency chain-reaction model is also established. The main contents of this article are as follows:
First, disaster system theory objected to a signal natural disaster is introduced. The factors affecting emergency's occurrence are analyzed. The DEs of different emergencies are summed up. Based on disaster system theory, the principles of other emergences are analyzed.
Second, the heterogeneous chain-reactions between emergencies are our objects. The factors affecting emergency chain-reaction are revealed. The relatives between emergency chain-reaction with DE are analyzed.
Third, the chain-reaction mechanism based on DE is proposed; the emergency chain-reaction model is established. A chain-reaction model of "Snowstorm in South China" is built.
Finally, the simulation experiences are designed. Given different emergencies and regional environments (REs), simulation results are obtained; Exposure of "Jilin Petrochemical Company" is also incorporated as an example to demonstrate the method proposed.
This work is of great significance for emergency management. The common mechanisms of occurrence and chain-reaction for emergency are proposed, which is useful for comprehensive emergency management. According to characteristics of RE, the emergency chain-reaction model established can be used for predicting the situation of chain-reaction, which can help emergency agencies make well preparations, reducing losses greatly.
为改变这一现状,本文以四大类突发事件为研究对象,把传统的针对自然灾害研究的灾害系统论扩展到其它类突发事件；从孕灾环境在突发事件连锁反应中的作用出发,提出了突发事件连锁反应机制,构建了突发事件连锁反应模型。本文的主要研究内容如下：
首先,介绍了主要研究单一自然灾害事件的灾害系统论；界定了本文研究的突发事件范围；面向四大类突发事件,分析了影响事件发生的因素,并总结了各类事件的孕灾环境；基于灾害系统论对各类突发事件的发生机理进行了比较。
其次,根据连锁特征把突发事件连锁反应划分成不同的类型,本文主要研究不同突发事件之间的异质连锁。总结了影响突发事件连锁反应的因素,并系统的分析了突发事件连锁反应与孕灾环境的关系。
再次,提出了基于孕灾环境的突发事件连锁反应机制；构建了突发事件连锁反应模型；抽取了突发事件的连锁反应流程；构建了“南方雪灾”连锁反应链实例。
最后,基于突发事件连锁反应模型,设计了相应的仿真方案：针对不同事件、不同区域环境对连锁反应的影响,进行了仿真实验；并以“吉林石化爆炸”事件为例对提出的建模方法进行了实例应用与验证。
本文的研究内容和结论对开展应急管理工作具有重要的意义：提出的突发事件发生机制和连锁反应机制,突破以往单一领域灾害研究和应急管理模式,有利于开展突发事件综合应急管理与综合减灾；构建的突发事件连锁反应模型,可以根据区域环境特征对可能发生的事件连锁反应进行预警预测,从而有效地辅助应急管理部门提前做好准备工作,极大的减少损失。
Recently, emergency& emergency chain-reaction occurred frequently. The study on the emergency chain-reaction is an urgent demand. However, the current researches pay more attention on natural disaster chain than other kinds. Even, the chain-reactions between other emergencies are still known less.
This paper is oriented to four categories of emergencies. It extends the disaster system theory to other emergencies; the chain-reactions between emergencies are analyzed based on disaster-pregnant environment (DE); the mechanisms of emergency chain-reaction are proposed; an emergency chain-reaction model is also established. The main contents of this article are as follows:
First, disaster system theory objected to a signal natural disaster is introduced. The factors affecting emergency's occurrence are analyzed. The DEs of different emergencies are summed up. Based on disaster system theory, the principles of other emergences are analyzed.
Second, the heterogeneous chain-reactions between emergencies are our objects. The factors affecting emergency chain-reaction are revealed. The relatives between emergency chain-reaction with DE are analyzed.
Third, the chain-reaction mechanism based on DE is proposed; the emergency chain-reaction model is established. A chain-reaction model of "Snowstorm in South China" is built.
Finally, the simulation experiences are designed. Given different emergencies and regional environments (REs), simulation results are obtained; Exposure of "Jilin Petrochemical Company" is also incorporated as an example to demonstrate the method proposed.
This work is of great significance for emergency management. The common mechanisms of occurrence and chain-reaction for emergency are proposed, which is useful for comprehensive emergency management. According to characteristics of RE, the emergency chain-reaction model established can be used for predicting the situation of chain-reaction, which can help emergency agencies make well preparations, reducing losses greatly.
引文
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[6]吴宗之,刘茂.重大事故应急救援系统及预案导论[M],冶金工业出版社,2003.
[7]范维澄.国家突发公共事件应急管理中科学问题的思考和建议[J].中国科学基金,2007,(02)：71-76.
[8]杨列勋,邓云峰.国家突发公共事件应急管理中的科学问题[J].自然科学进展,2007,(04)：505-505.
[9]Scira Menoni. Chains of damages and failures in a metropolitan environment:some observations on the Kobe earthquake in 1995 [J]. Journal of Hazardous Materials, 2001 (86):101-119.
[10]闪淳昌.建立健全突发事件应急预案[J].中国减灾,2004,(06)：15-16.
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[17]史培军．灾害研究的理论与实践.南京大学学报(自然科学版)[J],自然灾害研究专辑,1991,(11)：37-42.
[18]史培军.再论灾害研究的理论与实践.自然灾害学报[J].2002,11(3)：1-9.
[19]史培军.三论灾害研究的理论与实践.自然灾害学报[J].2002,11(3)：1-9.
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[21]Mileti D S.Disasters by Design:A Reassessment of Natural Hazards in the United States [M]. Washington D C:Joseph Henry Press,1999.
[22]Okada Norio. Conference Road Map 3 rd International Symposium on Integrated Disaster Risk Management (IDRM-2003) [C]. Kyoto International Conference Hall, Kyoto, Japan,3-5 July,2003.
[23]Burton I, Katersand R W, White G F. The Environment as Hazard [M].2 Edition. New York:The Guilford Press,1993.
[24]王劲峰等.中国自然灾害影响评价方法研究[M].北京：中国科学技术出版社,1993.
[25]Wisner B, Blaikie P, Cannon T, Davis I. At Risk[M]. Second Ediction. New York: Routledge,2003.
[26]齐善鸿,乐国林,刘金岩等.基于熵与白组织理论的突发事件分析模型[J].科技管理研究,2006,26(10)：238-241.
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[28]文传甲.论大气灾害链[J].灾害学,1994,9(3)：1-6.
[29]肖盛燮.灾变链式理论及应用[M].北京：科学出版社,2006.
[30]Zhao L, Park K, Lai Y C, et al. Tolerance of scale-free networks against attack-induced cascades [J]. Review E,2005,72:025104 (R).
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