自然资本的替代性研究
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摘要
自然资本及其替代性问题是可持续发展研究的产物,也是可持续发展理论最为核心的问题。由于自然资本理论产生和发展的领域主要是生态和环境学领域,因此有关界定和分析往往不符合经济学的逻辑体系,致使长期以来主流经济学家和生态、环境学家对这一问题的认识观点迥异,但是却难以进行有效的沟通。
围绕自然资本与其他资本之间的关系,主张替代性的观点与主张互补性的观点其实不在同一分析架构中,这不但严重限制了自然资本理论与经济学的融合,还导致了可持续发展研究陷入困境:尽管它的影响很大,但是对一个国家或社会可持续实践的导向能力却非常有限。以我国为例。我国经过近30年的高速增长,经济总量大幅度增加,但与此同时,自然资本的约束却趋向于全面化和刚性化。如何应对由此带来的挑战,现有研究似乎不能提供令人满意的启迪。
通过梳理已有研究,本文发现对自然资本范畴的不同界定以及对自然资本的替代性的不同假设是问题的根源所在。于是,本文从经济学的基础理论出发,分析了主流经济学和生态、环境学对自然资本范畴的界定存在的问题,并尝试建立以稀缺性为基础的自然资本范畴。接着,放松了两大学派对自然资本的替代性的前置性假设,采用基于超越对数生产函数的计量经济学模型,重点分析了核心自然资本——能源的替代性问题,以及迄今为止人类对能源的替代能力的变化。随后,本文将能源的替代性结论逐步推广到市场物品类自然资本、混合物品类自然资本和公共物品类自然资本,发现这一结论具有普适性,即自然资本与资本、人力资本之间存在长期的替代性和短期的互补性,并且人力资本发挥着决定性作用。同时也发现,价值越是无法通过市场实现的自然资本,替代的难度越大,对一个国家的人力资本存量以及制度能力的要求就越高。而人力资本的积累是一个国家长期投入的结果,因此,自然资本的替代性归根结底取决于一个国家的发展战略的选择。
基于以上分析,本文最后尝试构建了一个基于自然资本的可持续能力框架,并针对我国的自然资本约束问题,提出国民财富充分再投入到自然资本、人力资本以及厉行节约、艰苦奋斗对提高我国可持续能力的重要意义。
相对于现有的自然资本研究,本文的创新点主要体现在三个方面:
第一,建立了经济学意义相对明晰的自然资本的范畴。本文提出,竞争性使用(不同消费主体的竞争性使用和不同功能的竞争性使用)是稀缺性的核心。对于自然物品和服务而言,只有满足稀缺性的才能被视为自然资源,只有满足增殖性才能被视为自然资本。并且自然资源与自然资本的范畴随着竞争性使用状况的改变而动态变化,体现为发展性。这种界定有助于为对立的主流经济学和生态学派之间的沟通和融合搭建一个基础平台。
第二,放松了关于自然资本替代性假设,采用更具普遍性的、基于超越对数生产函数的计量模型,由点及面,层层拓展,证实自然资本与资本、人力资本之间存在时间轴上的替代性和时间点上的互补性,并且人力资本起决定性作用。围绕这一结论,本文进行了以下较有意义的拓展:
1.由于价值实现路径不同,不同自然资本的互补约束程度和替代的解约束难度都不相同,替代的路径也不相同。
2.自然资本与人力资本的替代和互补关系长期共存,并且可以通过资本之间结合方式的变化而相互转化:结合方式的优化可以强化时间轴上的替代性,缓解时间点上的互补性约束,甚至可能将其转化为替代性;如果自然资本只能与低水平的人力资本相结合,时间点的互补性约束就会趋紧,而长期的替代性就会受损,甚至可能转化为互补性。
3.一个国家或社会在任一时间点上,都必须在自然资本的约束下发展,并储备替代能力。如果某一时点上自然资本的约束和解约束能力不对称,就有可能爆发严重的危机:
第三,基于以上自然资本及其替代性结论,本文构建了一个试图包容强可持续观和弱可持续观的可持续能力框架,指出一个国家或社会是否有足够多的社会财富用于自然资本和人力资本的投资,是否满足整体经济运行效率、发展的公平性和节俭三大要求将最终决定它发展的可持续能力如何。对我国而言,对自然资本和人力资本广泛而全面的投资以及合理的国际市场定位,是解决当前自然资本约束的基本出路。
Natural capital and its substitution are not only the result of research on sustainable development,but also at the crux of the problem of the theory of sustainable development.Because the theory was originated and developed in the field of ecology and environmental science,the associated definitions and analyses are not well consistent within the framework of economics.As a result,mainstream economists hold views opposite to those ecologists and environmentalists,and communication between them has been poor.
Regarding the relation of natural capital to other capital forms,the substitution view and the complementary view do not share the same logical framework,which mot only seriously hampers the convergence of natural capital theory and economics, but also leads to the dilemma of the theory of sustainable development theory--its inability to guide the sustainable practice in a country or a society has been constrained though it's already well-known.For example,China's high-speed economic growth has been ongoing for nearly 30 years,and the national economic aggregate has increased greatly.Meanwhile constraints on natural capital are increasing.What's more,current research has not provided a satisfactory solution on how to deal with this approaching challenge
This study tries to analyze natural capital and its substitution problem based on the framework of economics,and determines that the different definitions of the boundary of natural capital and presumptions on its substitution property are the sources of the discrepancies.Thus deficits of both definitions are analyzed and a new method based on scarcity is established.Furthermore,the presumptions on the substitution property of natural capital are relaxed.An econometric model based on Translog Production Function is applied to analyze the relation between energy(the hardcore natural capital) and man-made capital and human capital.The great progress of the world's ability to substitute energy is presented as a supplement to the econometric model.The main findings are then expanded to the whole range of natural capital step by step,from energy to market-goods-like natural capital to mixed-goods-like ones and finally to the public-goods-like ones.It's found out that the conclusion fits all kinds of natural capital—natural capital can be substituted in the long run while they are complementary in the short run,and human capital plays a decisive role.It's also found out that the more difficult the value of natural capital can be realized in the market,the more difficult it is to substitute,and the higher requirement on the stocks of human capital and the institutional capability of a country.Because the accumulation of human capital is the outcome of huge and long-term investment,the substitution problem of natural capital depends upon a country's strategy of development.
Finally a framework of sustainability based on natural capital is established. Suggestions regarding China's natural capital constraints are provided,and emphasis is placed on reinvestment of natural capital and human capital by practicing economy, simple living and hard work throughout the whole society.
The research described in this dissertation features several innovations:
First,a relatively clear economic boundary of natural capital is established. Competitive use(among different consumers or among different functions) is set to define scarcity.Among all natural goods and services,only the scare ones are regarded as natural resources,and those capable of value-proliferation are regarded as natural capital.As the condition of scarcity changes over time,the scales of natural resource and natural capital also change accordingly,indicating its developmental characteristic.The new setting of natural capital is intended to provide a basis for catalyzing communication,mutual understanding,and thus convergence of mainstream economics and the ecology sides.
Second,the presumption on the relation between natural capital and other capital forms are relaxed.A more generalized econometrical model based on Translog Production Function is applied and the conclusions are carefully expanded from energy to all natural capital.Finally it's concluded that natural capital and man-made capital,human capital features substitutes in the long run,while complements in the short run.Some meaningful deductions are made:
(?)The differences in the difficulty level of value realization have significant impact on the complementary constraints of natural capital and the constrain-reducing capabilities of human beings.The paths of substitution of natural capital also vary among those three kinds of natural capital.
(?)The relations between natural capital and human capital coexist as substitutes and complements,and can be changed by varying the combinations of capital forms in economic input:optimizing the combinations helps improve the long-term substitution,and reduces the short term complementary constraints,or even changes it to substitution.If natural capital can only be combined with low grade human capital,the short-term complementary constraints will increase and the long-term capacity for substitution will be impeded,or even changed to complementary.
(?)A country or a society should develop under the complementary constraints of natural capital,and reserve its substitution capability.If the gap between constraints and the constrain-reducing efforts isn't low,there will be serious crisis.
Third,based on the conclusions above,a new framework of sustainability is established intending to incorporate the view of strong and weak sustainability.It is argued that sustainability is strongly based on the reinvestment of natural capital and human capital,and it should also meets the requirement of efficiency,fairness and saving rule.Regarding China's natural capital dilemma,a complete and intensive investment on natural capital and human capital and a repositioning of China's role in the international market determines the fundamental solution.
围绕自然资本与其他资本之间的关系,主张替代性的观点与主张互补性的观点其实不在同一分析架构中,这不但严重限制了自然资本理论与经济学的融合,还导致了可持续发展研究陷入困境:尽管它的影响很大,但是对一个国家或社会可持续实践的导向能力却非常有限。以我国为例。我国经过近30年的高速增长,经济总量大幅度增加,但与此同时,自然资本的约束却趋向于全面化和刚性化。如何应对由此带来的挑战,现有研究似乎不能提供令人满意的启迪。
通过梳理已有研究,本文发现对自然资本范畴的不同界定以及对自然资本的替代性的不同假设是问题的根源所在。于是,本文从经济学的基础理论出发,分析了主流经济学和生态、环境学对自然资本范畴的界定存在的问题,并尝试建立以稀缺性为基础的自然资本范畴。接着,放松了两大学派对自然资本的替代性的前置性假设,采用基于超越对数生产函数的计量经济学模型,重点分析了核心自然资本——能源的替代性问题,以及迄今为止人类对能源的替代能力的变化。随后,本文将能源的替代性结论逐步推广到市场物品类自然资本、混合物品类自然资本和公共物品类自然资本,发现这一结论具有普适性,即自然资本与资本、人力资本之间存在长期的替代性和短期的互补性,并且人力资本发挥着决定性作用。同时也发现,价值越是无法通过市场实现的自然资本,替代的难度越大,对一个国家的人力资本存量以及制度能力的要求就越高。而人力资本的积累是一个国家长期投入的结果,因此,自然资本的替代性归根结底取决于一个国家的发展战略的选择。
基于以上分析,本文最后尝试构建了一个基于自然资本的可持续能力框架,并针对我国的自然资本约束问题,提出国民财富充分再投入到自然资本、人力资本以及厉行节约、艰苦奋斗对提高我国可持续能力的重要意义。
相对于现有的自然资本研究,本文的创新点主要体现在三个方面:
第一,建立了经济学意义相对明晰的自然资本的范畴。本文提出,竞争性使用(不同消费主体的竞争性使用和不同功能的竞争性使用)是稀缺性的核心。对于自然物品和服务而言,只有满足稀缺性的才能被视为自然资源,只有满足增殖性才能被视为自然资本。并且自然资源与自然资本的范畴随着竞争性使用状况的改变而动态变化,体现为发展性。这种界定有助于为对立的主流经济学和生态学派之间的沟通和融合搭建一个基础平台。
第二,放松了关于自然资本替代性假设,采用更具普遍性的、基于超越对数生产函数的计量模型,由点及面,层层拓展,证实自然资本与资本、人力资本之间存在时间轴上的替代性和时间点上的互补性,并且人力资本起决定性作用。围绕这一结论,本文进行了以下较有意义的拓展:
1.由于价值实现路径不同,不同自然资本的互补约束程度和替代的解约束难度都不相同,替代的路径也不相同。
2.自然资本与人力资本的替代和互补关系长期共存,并且可以通过资本之间结合方式的变化而相互转化:结合方式的优化可以强化时间轴上的替代性,缓解时间点上的互补性约束,甚至可能将其转化为替代性;如果自然资本只能与低水平的人力资本相结合,时间点的互补性约束就会趋紧,而长期的替代性就会受损,甚至可能转化为互补性。
3.一个国家或社会在任一时间点上,都必须在自然资本的约束下发展,并储备替代能力。如果某一时点上自然资本的约束和解约束能力不对称,就有可能爆发严重的危机:
第三,基于以上自然资本及其替代性结论,本文构建了一个试图包容强可持续观和弱可持续观的可持续能力框架,指出一个国家或社会是否有足够多的社会财富用于自然资本和人力资本的投资,是否满足整体经济运行效率、发展的公平性和节俭三大要求将最终决定它发展的可持续能力如何。对我国而言,对自然资本和人力资本广泛而全面的投资以及合理的国际市场定位,是解决当前自然资本约束的基本出路。
Natural capital and its substitution are not only the result of research on sustainable development,but also at the crux of the problem of the theory of sustainable development.Because the theory was originated and developed in the field of ecology and environmental science,the associated definitions and analyses are not well consistent within the framework of economics.As a result,mainstream economists hold views opposite to those ecologists and environmentalists,and communication between them has been poor.
Regarding the relation of natural capital to other capital forms,the substitution view and the complementary view do not share the same logical framework,which mot only seriously hampers the convergence of natural capital theory and economics, but also leads to the dilemma of the theory of sustainable development theory--its inability to guide the sustainable practice in a country or a society has been constrained though it's already well-known.For example,China's high-speed economic growth has been ongoing for nearly 30 years,and the national economic aggregate has increased greatly.Meanwhile constraints on natural capital are increasing.What's more,current research has not provided a satisfactory solution on how to deal with this approaching challenge
This study tries to analyze natural capital and its substitution problem based on the framework of economics,and determines that the different definitions of the boundary of natural capital and presumptions on its substitution property are the sources of the discrepancies.Thus deficits of both definitions are analyzed and a new method based on scarcity is established.Furthermore,the presumptions on the substitution property of natural capital are relaxed.An econometric model based on Translog Production Function is applied to analyze the relation between energy(the hardcore natural capital) and man-made capital and human capital.The great progress of the world's ability to substitute energy is presented as a supplement to the econometric model.The main findings are then expanded to the whole range of natural capital step by step,from energy to market-goods-like natural capital to mixed-goods-like ones and finally to the public-goods-like ones.It's found out that the conclusion fits all kinds of natural capital—natural capital can be substituted in the long run while they are complementary in the short run,and human capital plays a decisive role.It's also found out that the more difficult the value of natural capital can be realized in the market,the more difficult it is to substitute,and the higher requirement on the stocks of human capital and the institutional capability of a country.Because the accumulation of human capital is the outcome of huge and long-term investment,the substitution problem of natural capital depends upon a country's strategy of development.
Finally a framework of sustainability based on natural capital is established. Suggestions regarding China's natural capital constraints are provided,and emphasis is placed on reinvestment of natural capital and human capital by practicing economy, simple living and hard work throughout the whole society.
The research described in this dissertation features several innovations:
First,a relatively clear economic boundary of natural capital is established. Competitive use(among different consumers or among different functions) is set to define scarcity.Among all natural goods and services,only the scare ones are regarded as natural resources,and those capable of value-proliferation are regarded as natural capital.As the condition of scarcity changes over time,the scales of natural resource and natural capital also change accordingly,indicating its developmental characteristic.The new setting of natural capital is intended to provide a basis for catalyzing communication,mutual understanding,and thus convergence of mainstream economics and the ecology sides.
Second,the presumption on the relation between natural capital and other capital forms are relaxed.A more generalized econometrical model based on Translog Production Function is applied and the conclusions are carefully expanded from energy to all natural capital.Finally it's concluded that natural capital and man-made capital,human capital features substitutes in the long run,while complements in the short run.Some meaningful deductions are made:
(?)The differences in the difficulty level of value realization have significant impact on the complementary constraints of natural capital and the constrain-reducing capabilities of human beings.The paths of substitution of natural capital also vary among those three kinds of natural capital.
(?)The relations between natural capital and human capital coexist as substitutes and complements,and can be changed by varying the combinations of capital forms in economic input:optimizing the combinations helps improve the long-term substitution,and reduces the short term complementary constraints,or even changes it to substitution.If natural capital can only be combined with low grade human capital,the short-term complementary constraints will increase and the long-term capacity for substitution will be impeded,or even changed to complementary.
(?)A country or a society should develop under the complementary constraints of natural capital,and reserve its substitution capability.If the gap between constraints and the constrain-reducing efforts isn't low,there will be serious crisis.
Third,based on the conclusions above,a new framework of sustainability is established intending to incorporate the view of strong and weak sustainability.It is argued that sustainability is strongly based on the reinvestment of natural capital and human capital,and it should also meets the requirement of efficiency,fairness and saving rule.Regarding China's natural capital dilemma,a complete and intensive investment on natural capital and human capital and a repositioning of China's role in the international market determines the fundamental solution.
引文
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[1]GDP按国家统计局公布的初步核算值246619亿元计算,美元.人民币汇率按1:7.5计算。
[2]根据《中国环境统计年鉴2007》计算。
[3]见新华网报道,“环境污染带来的经济损失约占国内生产总值的10%”。http://news.xinhuanet.com/fortune/2006-O6/O6/content_4649678.htm
[4]参见《中国绿色国民经济核算研究报告2004》
[5]杨世新,调整出口退税利于钢铁发展,现代物流报,2007/04/04。
[6]转引自:肖汉平,油价上涨对全球经济的冲击:理论、经验与对策,中国石油和化工经济分析,2006.08。
[7]主流经济学中,Weitzman(1976)率先在一个更为宽泛的基础上讨论资本。他认为可耗竭自然资源和学习、研究活动积累的知识都应该量化为资本。
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[1]实际上这一论断也不成立。参见本文第二章。
[2]数据来自:日本数据来自《日本历史统计年鉴》;中国数据来自《中国统计年鉴2007》。
[3]如哲学、伦理学等对自然生态系统的价值衡量就与经济学显著不同。关于这一问题的研究多而杂,且始终缺乏统一的价值标准。例如很多人将自然资源的价值分为经济价值、社会价值和生态价值,但是又对社会价值和生态价值进行评估。按照弗里曼的观点,能进行评估即意味着经济价值,它是可替代的:按照本文的观点,如果可以评估,意味着它们是可以比较的,那么也应该是经济价值。
[4]世界银行首席经济学家萨默斯对戴利提出的“经济子系统相对于总生态系统的规模”是否是一个重要的问题、“什么是宏观经济相对于环境的最优规模”的回答。见赫尔曼·戴利著,诸大建,胡圣等译,《超越增长.可持续发展的经济学》,上海:上海译文出版社,2001,P9。
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[1]资料来源:http://www.trec-uk.org.uk/
[2]数据来源:图7.1-1数据来自《日本教育自皮书》(1963年)。R&D数据来自世界银行WDI数据库。
[3]数据来源:世界银行WDI数据库。
[4]2006中国能源发展报告
[5]常志鹏,“我国已成世界第二能源消费国未来20年面临挑战”,新华网,2003.12.14。
[6]根据“人均能耗(1980或2004)*生活能耗比例(1980或2004)”求出。
[7]见高占义,“借鉴国外经验发展节水灌溉”,国家节水灌溉北京工程技术研究中心。http://www.hwcc.com.cn/newsdisplay/newsdisplay.asp?Id=88685
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[1]GDP按国家统计局公布的初步核算值246619亿元计算,美元.人民币汇率按1:7.5计算。
[2]根据《中国环境统计年鉴2007》计算。
[3]见新华网报道,“环境污染带来的经济损失约占国内生产总值的10%”。http://news.xinhuanet.com/fortune/2006-O6/O6/content_4649678.htm
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[6]转引自:肖汉平,油价上涨对全球经济的冲击:理论、经验与对策,中国石油和化工经济分析,2006.08。
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[1]实际上这一论断也不成立。参见本文第二章。
[2]数据来自:日本数据来自《日本历史统计年鉴》;中国数据来自《中国统计年鉴2007》。
[3]如哲学、伦理学等对自然生态系统的价值衡量就与经济学显著不同。关于这一问题的研究多而杂,且始终缺乏统一的价值标准。例如很多人将自然资源的价值分为经济价值、社会价值和生态价值,但是又对社会价值和生态价值进行评估。按照弗里曼的观点,能进行评估即意味着经济价值,它是可替代的:按照本文的观点,如果可以评估,意味着它们是可以比较的,那么也应该是经济价值。
[4]世界银行首席经济学家萨默斯对戴利提出的“经济子系统相对于总生态系统的规模”是否是一个重要的问题、“什么是宏观经济相对于环境的最优规模”的回答。见赫尔曼·戴利著,诸大建,胡圣等译,《超越增长.可持续发展的经济学》,上海:上海译文出版社,2001,P9。
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[1]资料来源:http://www.trec-uk.org.uk/
[2]数据来源:图7.1-1数据来自《日本教育自皮书》(1963年)。R&D数据来自世界银行WDI数据库。
[3]数据来源:世界银行WDI数据库。
[4]2006中国能源发展报告
[5]常志鹏,“我国已成世界第二能源消费国未来20年面临挑战”,新华网,2003.12.14。
[6]根据“人均能耗(1980或2004)*生活能耗比例(1980或2004)”求出。
[7]见高占义,“借鉴国外经验发展节水灌溉”,国家节水灌溉北京工程技术研究中心。http://www.hwcc.com.cn/newsdisplay/newsdisplay.asp?Id=88685
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