国库资金对货币政策效应影响研究
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摘要
随着近年来中国公共财政体制改革的不断深入，国库资金迅速增长并且突破了万亿的高额水平，出现了两难并存的局面——高额国库资金闲置的巨大时间价值损失和国库资金波动对央行货币政策效应造成显著影响。本文以此为问题导向，主要尝试研究国库资金对货币政策效应的影响机制，并结合中国的现实做实证研究，在此基础上，分析熨平中国国库资金对货币政策效应影响的制度选择。期望通过本文的研究，可以为解决当前中国万亿国库资金面临的问题提供一点有益的参考，同时丰富国库资金的理论研究内容。
首先，在相关概念界定和现有文献综述的基础上，本文探讨了国库资金管理制度变迁。对国库资金管理制度分类进行分析和归纳，针对传统国库资金管理制度分类体系表现出的不完备性，本文将混合金库制纳入制度分类体系，使国库资金管理制度分类体系更加完备，从而更好地解释当前各国国库资金管理制度变迁，为本文研究不同制度下国库资金对货币政策效应的影响明确了制度环境。
其次，本文第4章、第5章和第6章从理论上分别研究了不同国库资金管理制度下国库资金对货币政策效应的影响。研究发现，单一金库制下国库资金对货币政策效应的影响最为显著：国库资金增减直接引起基础货币的收缩和扩张，由于基础货币属于高能货币，因而国库资金变动将对货币供给和金融机构储备等将造成显著影响，扰动货币政策有效性。利用外生货币供给模型扩展分析发现，国库资金与货币供应量呈反方向运动，国库资金增加将导致货币供应量下降，而国库资金的下降将提高货币供应量水平，并最终对利率和产出造成影响；利用内生货币供给模型扩展分析发现，国库资金变化将引起商业银行资产结构变化，从而影响商业银行的储备需求，最终影响商业银行的储备水平和市场利率均衡水平。银行存款制下国库资金波动不象单一金库制那样对货币变量的总量水平直接造成影响，相反，更多的是影响市场微观机制。研究发现，银行存款制下，国库资金变化会引起微观主体的财富变化，导致政府国库资金存款与私人存款比例以及活期存款和定期存款比例发生改变，扰动商业银行资产负债结构，从而通过资产价格渠道和信贷渠道影响货币政策传导机制；另外，国库资金容易受到利益集团的影响，弱化商业银行接受国库资金存款的竞争性，加深商业银行市场分割，增大国库资金不确定性，容易诱发风险，影响货币市场或者银行体系的稳定性；进一步的模型分析发现，国库资金变化还会影响国库资金存款的债券抵押品、国库资金存款扩张乘数和商业银行的流动性等，对商业银行信贷造成扰动，从而影响货币政策信贷传导机制。对于混合金库制下国库资金对货币政策效应影响的问题，研究表明，混合金库制兼具单一金库制和银行存款制的优点，混合金库制下国库资金对货币政策效应的负面影响比其他制度低，现代发达市场经济国家较多采用混合金库制熨平国库资金对货币政策效应的影响。研究发现，混合金库制下国库资金会对货币政策效应产生积极的影响：闲置国库资金投资运作，提高货币市场流动性，同时，地方政府对闲置国库资金的投资需求内生推动公共机构投资者的发展，促进金融市场对货币政策的反应，提高货币政策有效性；另外，政府由于国库资金赤字债券融资而增加短期债券供给，有利于发展短期国债市场，促进市场基准利率的形成，有利于公开市场操作的实施，提高货币政策有效性。然而，混合金库制下国库资金也会对货币政策效应产生一些负面的影响，如国库资金赤字融资可能造成货币供给增加，产生通胀压力等，国库资产结构调整也可能对货币政策效应产生影响。
第三，本文第7章基于中国国库资金和其他相关货币变量月度时间序列数据，采用协整分析、Granger因果检验、脉冲响应和方差分解等动态计量分析方法实证研究国库资金对货币政策效应的影响。研究发现：一、中国国库资金与基础货币、银行间同业拆借市场利率之间具有长期的协整关系，国库资金是基础货币和银行间同业拆借市场利率的Granger因；脉冲响应和方差分解表明，基础货币受国库资金的影响程度较大，国库资金的增加和下降促使银行间同业拆借市场利率上升和下降。这从侧面反映出中国国库资金对货币政策操作目标造成显著扰动。二、中国国库资金与各层次货币供应量之间存在长期的协整关系，国库资金是各层次货币供应量的cranger因；脉冲响应分析发现，各层次货币供应量对来自国库资金的单位冲击都表现出负向变化，并且影响程度呈逐渐衰减的现象；方差分解表明，国库资金对货币供应量M0产生最大的扰动影响，对货币供应量M1产生了较大的影响，对货币供应量M2的影响程度相对较低。这些事实表明中国国库资金对货币供应量中介目标造成了显著扰动。三、中国国库资金与金融机构信贷、金融机构准备金之间存在长期的协整关系；国库资金是金融机构信贷和金融机构准备金的Granger因；国库资金单位冲击引起金融机构信贷的负向变化，而金融机构准备金对来自国库资金的单位冲击则产生正向变化。从影响程度看，国库资金对金融机构准备金造成很大影响，而对金融机构信贷的影响则呈倒“U”型模式。这些情况表明中国货币政策信贷传导机制受到国库资金的显著影响。总之，上述结论从实证角度揭示了中国国库资金对货币政策效应的显著影响，同时也表明了现阶段熨平中国国库资金对货币政策效应影响的必要性。
最后，本文结合理论研究得出的结论和中国的实际情况，分析如何熨平中国国库资金对货币政策效应的影响。研究表明，推行国库资金管理制度改革是熨平中国国库资金对货币政策效应影响的最优选择，即由现行委托金库制转向混合金库制。本文接着对现阶段中国推行混合金库制改革最核心的三个问题进行研究：一是对中国政府国库日常资金最优存量水平进行模型构建与测算；二是分析现阶段中国政府闲置国库资金的投资运作方式；三是分析现阶段熨平中国国库资金波动影响的短期国债融资制度安排。当然，要熨平国库资金对货币政策效应的影响，还必须加强财政部门与货币当局的协调配合。
With the deep reform of the fiscal institution in China recently, the treasury fund has upsoared and exceeded one hundred billion yuan. As a result, there were great return lossess of the treasury idle fund. On the other hand, the treasury fund had greatly impact on the monetary effectiveness. If we wanted to solve the two problems outlined above, we should answer the problem that which mechanism influenced the monetary policy. We will intended to do some research on this topic in this paper.
Firstly, we discussed the transition of the treasury management system on the basis of literature review. We analyzed the category of the treasury management system and found that the current treasury management system was imperfect. So we brought forward a new kind of the treasury management system with the name of the mixed treasury management system. We could explain the treasury management system in all nations more accurately incorporating the new kind of the treasury management system. But most important of all, the new treasury management system helped to create a prefect institutional environment for our research.
Secondly, we did research on the topic about the treasury fund influencing the effectiveness of the monetary policy in theory between the fourth chapter and the sixth chapter. As far as the single treasury management system was concerned, we found that the treasury fund had most strong effect on the effectiveness of the monetary policy. We analyzed this case in the extended exogenous money supply model and found that the treasury fund was inverse proportion to the money supply too. On the other hand, we analyzed this case in the extended endogenous money supply model and found that the treasury fund will influence the asset structure of the commercial banks. In the end, the treasury fund will affect the reserve requirement of the commercial banks and change the equilibrium rate.
When it comes to the depository system, the treasury fund did not influence the money supply directly as the single treasury system. We lucubrated this system and found that the treasury fund would have impact on the asset of the people and the enterprises. In the end, the structure of the balance sheet in the commercial banks would be changed due to the treasury funds in the depository system. In the end, the treasury fund would influence the monetary transmission mechanism. On the other hand, the treasury fund in the depository system was easy to be affected by the interest groups and the stability of the bank system would be affected in the end. We lucubrated in the model and found that the treasury funds would also have effect on the mortgage bonds and the liquidity of the commercial banks. As far as the mixed treasury management system was concerned, we found that this system took the advantage of the other two systems. And many developed countries today adopted this system. The mixed treasury management system has become the best system today.
Thirdly, we did positive research with the monthly data in China. We analyzed the data with dynamic econometric tools such as co-integration and impulse response, etc. And we found some important results. To begin with, the treasury fund in China has co-integration relationship with the monetary base and the interest rate. The treasury fund was Granger cause of the monetary base and the interest rate. We also found that the monetary base was strongly affected by the treasury fund. Secondly, The treasury fund had co-integration relationship with all kinds level of the money supply such as M0, M1 and M2. The treasury fund was Granger cause of the money supply. The treasury fund had most strong effect on M0 and least effect on M2. Lastly, we found that the treasury fund had co-integration relationship with the financial loans and the financial reserves. The positive impulse of the treasury fund will cause the financial loans to change negatively. The treasury fund was Granger cause of the financial loans and the financial reserves. To sum up, we found the important result that the treasury fund in China had notable effect on the effectiveness of the monetary policy.
Finally, we analyzed the problem on how to smooth the effect that the treasury fund had on the monetary policy. In accordance with the situation in China, We found that the best way to cope with this problem was to push reform in the treasury management system in China. And we analyzed the core issues with the treasury management system reform. Namely, we modelled and measured the best level of the treasury fund in China. Secondly, we analyzed the problem that how to invest the idle treasury fund. Lastly, we analyzed and assessed the institution about financing the treasury deficit and smoothed the treasury fund. Anyway, if we wanted to smooth the influence on the effectiveness of the monetary policy, we also must resort to the cooperation between the central bank and the fiscal bureau.
首先，在相关概念界定和现有文献综述的基础上，本文探讨了国库资金管理制度变迁。对国库资金管理制度分类进行分析和归纳，针对传统国库资金管理制度分类体系表现出的不完备性，本文将混合金库制纳入制度分类体系，使国库资金管理制度分类体系更加完备，从而更好地解释当前各国国库资金管理制度变迁，为本文研究不同制度下国库资金对货币政策效应的影响明确了制度环境。
其次，本文第4章、第5章和第6章从理论上分别研究了不同国库资金管理制度下国库资金对货币政策效应的影响。研究发现，单一金库制下国库资金对货币政策效应的影响最为显著：国库资金增减直接引起基础货币的收缩和扩张，由于基础货币属于高能货币，因而国库资金变动将对货币供给和金融机构储备等将造成显著影响，扰动货币政策有效性。利用外生货币供给模型扩展分析发现，国库资金与货币供应量呈反方向运动，国库资金增加将导致货币供应量下降，而国库资金的下降将提高货币供应量水平，并最终对利率和产出造成影响；利用内生货币供给模型扩展分析发现，国库资金变化将引起商业银行资产结构变化，从而影响商业银行的储备需求，最终影响商业银行的储备水平和市场利率均衡水平。银行存款制下国库资金波动不象单一金库制那样对货币变量的总量水平直接造成影响，相反，更多的是影响市场微观机制。研究发现，银行存款制下，国库资金变化会引起微观主体的财富变化，导致政府国库资金存款与私人存款比例以及活期存款和定期存款比例发生改变，扰动商业银行资产负债结构，从而通过资产价格渠道和信贷渠道影响货币政策传导机制；另外，国库资金容易受到利益集团的影响，弱化商业银行接受国库资金存款的竞争性，加深商业银行市场分割，增大国库资金不确定性，容易诱发风险，影响货币市场或者银行体系的稳定性；进一步的模型分析发现，国库资金变化还会影响国库资金存款的债券抵押品、国库资金存款扩张乘数和商业银行的流动性等，对商业银行信贷造成扰动，从而影响货币政策信贷传导机制。对于混合金库制下国库资金对货币政策效应影响的问题，研究表明，混合金库制兼具单一金库制和银行存款制的优点，混合金库制下国库资金对货币政策效应的负面影响比其他制度低，现代发达市场经济国家较多采用混合金库制熨平国库资金对货币政策效应的影响。研究发现，混合金库制下国库资金会对货币政策效应产生积极的影响：闲置国库资金投资运作，提高货币市场流动性，同时，地方政府对闲置国库资金的投资需求内生推动公共机构投资者的发展，促进金融市场对货币政策的反应，提高货币政策有效性；另外，政府由于国库资金赤字债券融资而增加短期债券供给，有利于发展短期国债市场，促进市场基准利率的形成，有利于公开市场操作的实施，提高货币政策有效性。然而，混合金库制下国库资金也会对货币政策效应产生一些负面的影响，如国库资金赤字融资可能造成货币供给增加，产生通胀压力等，国库资产结构调整也可能对货币政策效应产生影响。
第三，本文第7章基于中国国库资金和其他相关货币变量月度时间序列数据，采用协整分析、Granger因果检验、脉冲响应和方差分解等动态计量分析方法实证研究国库资金对货币政策效应的影响。研究发现：一、中国国库资金与基础货币、银行间同业拆借市场利率之间具有长期的协整关系，国库资金是基础货币和银行间同业拆借市场利率的Granger因；脉冲响应和方差分解表明，基础货币受国库资金的影响程度较大，国库资金的增加和下降促使银行间同业拆借市场利率上升和下降。这从侧面反映出中国国库资金对货币政策操作目标造成显著扰动。二、中国国库资金与各层次货币供应量之间存在长期的协整关系，国库资金是各层次货币供应量的cranger因；脉冲响应分析发现，各层次货币供应量对来自国库资金的单位冲击都表现出负向变化，并且影响程度呈逐渐衰减的现象；方差分解表明，国库资金对货币供应量M0产生最大的扰动影响，对货币供应量M1产生了较大的影响，对货币供应量M2的影响程度相对较低。这些事实表明中国国库资金对货币供应量中介目标造成了显著扰动。三、中国国库资金与金融机构信贷、金融机构准备金之间存在长期的协整关系；国库资金是金融机构信贷和金融机构准备金的Granger因；国库资金单位冲击引起金融机构信贷的负向变化，而金融机构准备金对来自国库资金的单位冲击则产生正向变化。从影响程度看，国库资金对金融机构准备金造成很大影响，而对金融机构信贷的影响则呈倒“U”型模式。这些情况表明中国货币政策信贷传导机制受到国库资金的显著影响。总之，上述结论从实证角度揭示了中国国库资金对货币政策效应的显著影响，同时也表明了现阶段熨平中国国库资金对货币政策效应影响的必要性。
最后，本文结合理论研究得出的结论和中国的实际情况，分析如何熨平中国国库资金对货币政策效应的影响。研究表明，推行国库资金管理制度改革是熨平中国国库资金对货币政策效应影响的最优选择，即由现行委托金库制转向混合金库制。本文接着对现阶段中国推行混合金库制改革最核心的三个问题进行研究：一是对中国政府国库日常资金最优存量水平进行模型构建与测算；二是分析现阶段中国政府闲置国库资金的投资运作方式；三是分析现阶段熨平中国国库资金波动影响的短期国债融资制度安排。当然，要熨平国库资金对货币政策效应的影响，还必须加强财政部门与货币当局的协调配合。
With the deep reform of the fiscal institution in China recently, the treasury fund has upsoared and exceeded one hundred billion yuan. As a result, there were great return lossess of the treasury idle fund. On the other hand, the treasury fund had greatly impact on the monetary effectiveness. If we wanted to solve the two problems outlined above, we should answer the problem that which mechanism influenced the monetary policy. We will intended to do some research on this topic in this paper.
Firstly, we discussed the transition of the treasury management system on the basis of literature review. We analyzed the category of the treasury management system and found that the current treasury management system was imperfect. So we brought forward a new kind of the treasury management system with the name of the mixed treasury management system. We could explain the treasury management system in all nations more accurately incorporating the new kind of the treasury management system. But most important of all, the new treasury management system helped to create a prefect institutional environment for our research.
Secondly, we did research on the topic about the treasury fund influencing the effectiveness of the monetary policy in theory between the fourth chapter and the sixth chapter. As far as the single treasury management system was concerned, we found that the treasury fund had most strong effect on the effectiveness of the monetary policy. We analyzed this case in the extended exogenous money supply model and found that the treasury fund was inverse proportion to the money supply too. On the other hand, we analyzed this case in the extended endogenous money supply model and found that the treasury fund will influence the asset structure of the commercial banks. In the end, the treasury fund will affect the reserve requirement of the commercial banks and change the equilibrium rate.
When it comes to the depository system, the treasury fund did not influence the money supply directly as the single treasury system. We lucubrated this system and found that the treasury fund would have impact on the asset of the people and the enterprises. In the end, the structure of the balance sheet in the commercial banks would be changed due to the treasury funds in the depository system. In the end, the treasury fund would influence the monetary transmission mechanism. On the other hand, the treasury fund in the depository system was easy to be affected by the interest groups and the stability of the bank system would be affected in the end. We lucubrated in the model and found that the treasury funds would also have effect on the mortgage bonds and the liquidity of the commercial banks. As far as the mixed treasury management system was concerned, we found that this system took the advantage of the other two systems. And many developed countries today adopted this system. The mixed treasury management system has become the best system today.
Thirdly, we did positive research with the monthly data in China. We analyzed the data with dynamic econometric tools such as co-integration and impulse response, etc. And we found some important results. To begin with, the treasury fund in China has co-integration relationship with the monetary base and the interest rate. The treasury fund was Granger cause of the monetary base and the interest rate. We also found that the monetary base was strongly affected by the treasury fund. Secondly, The treasury fund had co-integration relationship with all kinds level of the money supply such as M0, M1 and M2. The treasury fund was Granger cause of the money supply. The treasury fund had most strong effect on M0 and least effect on M2. Lastly, we found that the treasury fund had co-integration relationship with the financial loans and the financial reserves. The positive impulse of the treasury fund will cause the financial loans to change negatively. The treasury fund was Granger cause of the financial loans and the financial reserves. To sum up, we found the important result that the treasury fund in China had notable effect on the effectiveness of the monetary policy.
Finally, we analyzed the problem on how to smooth the effect that the treasury fund had on the monetary policy. In accordance with the situation in China, We found that the best way to cope with this problem was to push reform in the treasury management system in China. And we analyzed the core issues with the treasury management system reform. Namely, we modelled and measured the best level of the treasury fund in China. Secondly, we analyzed the problem that how to invest the idle treasury fund. Lastly, we analyzed and assessed the institution about financing the treasury deficit and smoothed the treasury fund. Anyway, if we wanted to smooth the influence on the effectiveness of the monetary policy, we also must resort to the cooperation between the central bank and the fiscal bureau.
引文
① 数据来源于《中国金融年鉴》和《中国人民银行统计季报》。
② 数据来源于《中国人民银行统计季报》和中国人民银行网站http://www.pbc.gov.cn公布的数据。
① 这种制度还有另外一个潜在的问题：地方财政国库资金余额与财政预算收支规模成正比例关系，这就会造成财政收支规模大的东部沿海发达地区的国库资金利息收入也同比例放大，而财政收支规模小的中西部地区国库资金利息收入也较小，这样就进一步加大了地区间可用财力分配的不平衡。而且从另外一个角度看，由人民银行支付的各级政府国库资金利息，最终还是要由财政部来买单，这客观上就形成了一种中央对地方的自动转移支付，使富者更富，贫者更贫，这又与转移支付目标相悖 (孙勇，2006)。
② 王长勇．国库全年超收5000亿，巨额存款为难央行[J]．财经时报，2004年10月18日．
③ 数据来源于《中国人民银行统计季报》、Wind 资讯数据库和中国人民银行网站http://www.pbc.gov.cn公布的数据，并在此基础上做相关整理。具体的可以参见本文的第七章。
① 转引自：单学勇．国库制度——理论分析与运作管理[M]．中国科学技术大学出版社，2004．
① 转引自：王琪延．大众常用经济词典[M]．北京：中国发展出版社，2001(9)
② 转引自：凡勃伦．有闲阶级论——关于制度的经济研究 (中译本) [M]．北京：商务印书馆，1982
③ 转引自：康芒斯．制度经济学中译本(上册) [M]．北京：商务印书馆，1981
④ 转引自：诺斯．制度、制度变迁与经济绩效 (中译本) [M]．上海：上海三联书店，1994
① 转引自：诺斯．制度、制度变迁与经济绩效 (中译本) [M]．上海：上海三联书店，1994
① 转引自：诺斯．制度、制度变迁与经济绩效 (中译本) [M]．上海：上海三联书店，1994
① 转引自：陈立主编．现代金融大辞典[M]．长春：吉林大学出版社，1991
② 转引自：何盛明主编．财经大辞典 (上卷) [M]．北京：中国财政经济出版社，1990
③ 1961年和1965年美国政府间关系顾问委员会(Advisiry Commission on Intergovernmental Relations, ACIR)讨论了美国州和地方政府的国库闲置资金问题，发现政府由于没有进行现金管理而导致每年损失的利息收入在O．5至1亿美元之间，而当时州和地方政府的支出水平在1千亿美元左右。
① 转引自：马寅初．马寅初全集 (1937年第十三卷) [M]．杭州：浙江人民出版杜，1999版
① 出自顾炎武．日知录 (黄汝成集释本) [M]．上海：上海古籍出版社，1985
① 数据来源于《中国人民银行统计季报》和中国人民银行网站http://www.pbc.gov.cn, 并作相关整理。
① 转引自米什金．货币金融学 (第六版) 中译本[M]．中国人民大学出版社，2005．
① 月度国库资金增量表示当月国库资金余额与上月国库资金余额的差。
② 王长勇．国库全年超收5000亿，巨额存款为难央行[J]．财经时报，2004年10月18日．
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② 数据来源于《中国人民银行统计季报》和中国人民银行网站http://www.pbc.gov.cn公布的数据。
① 这种制度还有另外一个潜在的问题：地方财政国库资金余额与财政预算收支规模成正比例关系，这就会造成财政收支规模大的东部沿海发达地区的国库资金利息收入也同比例放大，而财政收支规模小的中西部地区国库资金利息收入也较小，这样就进一步加大了地区间可用财力分配的不平衡。而且从另外一个角度看，由人民银行支付的各级政府国库资金利息，最终还是要由财政部来买单，这客观上就形成了一种中央对地方的自动转移支付，使富者更富，贫者更贫，这又与转移支付目标相悖 (孙勇，2006)。
② 王长勇．国库全年超收5000亿，巨额存款为难央行[J]．财经时报，2004年10月18日．
③ 数据来源于《中国人民银行统计季报》、Wind 资讯数据库和中国人民银行网站http://www.pbc.gov.cn公布的数据，并在此基础上做相关整理。具体的可以参见本文的第七章。
① 转引自：单学勇．国库制度——理论分析与运作管理[M]．中国科学技术大学出版社，2004．
① 转引自：王琪延．大众常用经济词典[M]．北京：中国发展出版社，2001(9)
② 转引自：凡勃伦．有闲阶级论——关于制度的经济研究 (中译本) [M]．北京：商务印书馆，1982
③ 转引自：康芒斯．制度经济学中译本(上册) [M]．北京：商务印书馆，1981
④ 转引自：诺斯．制度、制度变迁与经济绩效 (中译本) [M]．上海：上海三联书店，1994
① 转引自：诺斯．制度、制度变迁与经济绩效 (中译本) [M]．上海：上海三联书店，1994
① 转引自：诺斯．制度、制度变迁与经济绩效 (中译本) [M]．上海：上海三联书店，1994
① 转引自：陈立主编．现代金融大辞典[M]．长春：吉林大学出版社，1991
② 转引自：何盛明主编．财经大辞典 (上卷) [M]．北京：中国财政经济出版社，1990
③ 1961年和1965年美国政府间关系顾问委员会(Advisiry Commission on Intergovernmental Relations, ACIR)讨论了美国州和地方政府的国库闲置资金问题，发现政府由于没有进行现金管理而导致每年损失的利息收入在O．5至1亿美元之间，而当时州和地方政府的支出水平在1千亿美元左右。
① 转引自：马寅初．马寅初全集 (1937年第十三卷) [M]．杭州：浙江人民出版杜，1999版
① 出自顾炎武．日知录 (黄汝成集释本) [M]．上海：上海古籍出版社，1985
① 数据来源于《中国人民银行统计季报》和中国人民银行网站http://www.pbc.gov.cn, 并作相关整理。
① 转引自米什金．货币金融学 (第六版) 中译本[M]．中国人民大学出版社，2005．
① 月度国库资金增量表示当月国库资金余额与上月国库资金余额的差。
② 王长勇．国库全年超收5000亿，巨额存款为难央行[J]．财经时报，2004年10月18日．
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