商业银行、资本市场与中国经济增长实证研究1980-2004
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摘要
在对经济增长源泉的研究过程中，金融因素引起了越来越多的关注。这些年来，国外经济学家对多个国家和地区的经验作了实证研究，研究表明金融系统在金融机构数量、金融服务的广度和深度、金融交易的数量和金融资产的质量都和经济增长存在显著的关系。
中国的金融改革和金融发展是在中国政府主导下进行的，同步于中国的经济市场化过程。这种供给型的制度创新与和西方发达国家的需求诱致型的制度创新是不同的。关于金融发展，主要是商业银行发展和资本市场发展，与中国经济增长关系的实证研究，国内研究多数局限在全国层面的研究。而本文则利用了从1980年到2004年之间全国30个省组成的panel数据，同时结合计量经济学理论的最新发展和相关计量工具，对中国改革开放以来的商业银行发展、资本市场发展与中国经济增长的相关性进行了深入的研究。因此在数据类型和实证研究方法上都具有创新性。
本文内容主要分为四个部分，第一部分阐述了研究背景和研究意义，以及论文的结构和研究方法，指出了本论文主要的创新点。接着回顾了金融系统、金融体系和金融发展理论等相关概念和内容，综述了商业银行主导型金融发展、证券市场主导型金融发展与经济增长的理论，以及相关实证研究的回顾与总结。
第二部分分析了中国在从计划经济向市场经济转轨的制度环境下，中国经济增长的特点，描述了商业银行和资本市场的演进与互动发展，并推动了中国金融深化的路径及其发展逻辑。最后综述了中国金融发展与经济增长相关的实证研究，讨论了现有研究中存在的不足。
第三部分首先通过理论模型讨论了金融系统影响经济增长的可能途径，并以此为基础提出实证研究模型。实证研究方法采用的是panel模型，结合计量经济学的最新发展和相关计量软件，恰当的处理内生性问题，并对所有的实证结果进行了可靠性检验，力求实证研究的严谨和合理。实证研究的结果表明，在考虑了联立偏差、异质性偏误和遗漏变量之后，中国商业银行的发展对经济增长有明显的促进作用，但是促进的效率很低。中国资本市场发展和经济增长不存在显著的相关性。最后结合实证结果以及以往相关研究的结论，就实证结果给出了合理的经济学解释。
第四部分对全文的实证结果进行了总结，对商业银行和资本市场未来发展提出了相关的政策建议。
In the course of study on economic growth source, the financial factor has caused more and more concerns. In these years, the foreign economists has done the empirical research to a lot of experiences of countries and regions, studies have shown that economic growth has the remarkable relation with the quantity of financial intstitution, the breath and depth of financial service, the quantity of financial transaction and the quality of financial assets.
The financial reform and the financial development are carried on under the direction of Chinese Government, move ahead simultaneously in the market-based course of economy of China. The supply-typed institutional innovation with is different witn the demand-typed institution innovation in western developed country. About the empirical research between the finance development, including merchant bank development and capital market development, and China's economic growth, most research confined to the national aspect. This text has utilized panel data which include 30 provinces maked up from 1980 to 2004, utilizing the newest development of the economics theory and tools relevantly, making a compositive research to the relations between merchant bank development、apital market development china's economic growth. The dissertation are innovative on the type of the data and the empirical research approaches.
The content of this dissertation is divided into four parts mainly, first part explains the research background, the structure of the thesis and research approaches, point out main innovations in the dissertation. Retrospect to relevant concepts and contents on financial system, financial market and financial development, reviews theoretical and empirical research on the coneections between the operation of the financail development and economic growth.
Second part analyses the characteristic of China's economic growth when China is under the system environment of going through transition from planned economy to market economy, and the route and developed logic of gradual progress and interdynamic development of the merchant bank and capital market. The survey reviews empirical research on the conections between the financial development and the china economic growth, and deficiency existing in the discussion.
The third part discusses the possible way that the financial system influences the economic growth through the theory model firstly, and propose the empirical model. What the empirical research approaches is adopted is panel model, uesing the latest development in econometrics and software tools relevantly, and has carried on dependability inspection to all empirical research results. Results of empirical research indicate there is obvious facilitation to the local economic growth in the development of the Chinese commercial bank, but the efficiency promoted is very low. Development of Chinese capital market and economic growth do not have remarkable dependence. Combine the empirical research results and conclusions of relevant research in the past finally, provide rational economics to explain on the result.
The last part Summarize empirical results of the full dissertation, and put forward relevant policy recommendations to the future development of commercial bank and capital market.
中国的金融改革和金融发展是在中国政府主导下进行的，同步于中国的经济市场化过程。这种供给型的制度创新与和西方发达国家的需求诱致型的制度创新是不同的。关于金融发展，主要是商业银行发展和资本市场发展，与中国经济增长关系的实证研究，国内研究多数局限在全国层面的研究。而本文则利用了从1980年到2004年之间全国30个省组成的panel数据，同时结合计量经济学理论的最新发展和相关计量工具，对中国改革开放以来的商业银行发展、资本市场发展与中国经济增长的相关性进行了深入的研究。因此在数据类型和实证研究方法上都具有创新性。
本文内容主要分为四个部分，第一部分阐述了研究背景和研究意义，以及论文的结构和研究方法，指出了本论文主要的创新点。接着回顾了金融系统、金融体系和金融发展理论等相关概念和内容，综述了商业银行主导型金融发展、证券市场主导型金融发展与经济增长的理论，以及相关实证研究的回顾与总结。
第二部分分析了中国在从计划经济向市场经济转轨的制度环境下，中国经济增长的特点，描述了商业银行和资本市场的演进与互动发展，并推动了中国金融深化的路径及其发展逻辑。最后综述了中国金融发展与经济增长相关的实证研究，讨论了现有研究中存在的不足。
第三部分首先通过理论模型讨论了金融系统影响经济增长的可能途径，并以此为基础提出实证研究模型。实证研究方法采用的是panel模型，结合计量经济学的最新发展和相关计量软件，恰当的处理内生性问题，并对所有的实证结果进行了可靠性检验，力求实证研究的严谨和合理。实证研究的结果表明，在考虑了联立偏差、异质性偏误和遗漏变量之后，中国商业银行的发展对经济增长有明显的促进作用，但是促进的效率很低。中国资本市场发展和经济增长不存在显著的相关性。最后结合实证结果以及以往相关研究的结论，就实证结果给出了合理的经济学解释。
第四部分对全文的实证结果进行了总结，对商业银行和资本市场未来发展提出了相关的政策建议。
In the course of study on economic growth source, the financial factor has caused more and more concerns. In these years, the foreign economists has done the empirical research to a lot of experiences of countries and regions, studies have shown that economic growth has the remarkable relation with the quantity of financial intstitution, the breath and depth of financial service, the quantity of financial transaction and the quality of financial assets.
The financial reform and the financial development are carried on under the direction of Chinese Government, move ahead simultaneously in the market-based course of economy of China. The supply-typed institutional innovation with is different witn the demand-typed institution innovation in western developed country. About the empirical research between the finance development, including merchant bank development and capital market development, and China's economic growth, most research confined to the national aspect. This text has utilized panel data which include 30 provinces maked up from 1980 to 2004, utilizing the newest development of the economics theory and tools relevantly, making a compositive research to the relations between merchant bank development、apital market development china's economic growth. The dissertation are innovative on the type of the data and the empirical research approaches.
The content of this dissertation is divided into four parts mainly, first part explains the research background, the structure of the thesis and research approaches, point out main innovations in the dissertation. Retrospect to relevant concepts and contents on financial system, financial market and financial development, reviews theoretical and empirical research on the coneections between the operation of the financail development and economic growth.
Second part analyses the characteristic of China's economic growth when China is under the system environment of going through transition from planned economy to market economy, and the route and developed logic of gradual progress and interdynamic development of the merchant bank and capital market. The survey reviews empirical research on the conections between the financial development and the china economic growth, and deficiency existing in the discussion.
The third part discusses the possible way that the financial system influences the economic growth through the theory model firstly, and propose the empirical model. What the empirical research approaches is adopted is panel model, uesing the latest development in econometrics and software tools relevantly, and has carried on dependability inspection to all empirical research results. Results of empirical research indicate there is obvious facilitation to the local economic growth in the development of the Chinese commercial bank, but the efficiency promoted is very low. Development of Chinese capital market and economic growth do not have remarkable dependence. Combine the empirical research results and conclusions of relevant research in the past finally, provide rational economics to explain on the result.
The last part Summarize empirical results of the full dissertation, and put forward relevant policy recommendations to the future development of commercial bank and capital market.
引文
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