基于未确知理论的煤矿安全评价研究
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摘要
煤矿工业是我国国民经济发展的重要基础,但煤矿事故的发生严重制约了煤矿的安全生产,给社会带来了巨大的生命和财产损失。科学合理地对煤矿企业进行安全评价,不仅可以促进煤矿企业的安全生产,而且可以全面有效的提升煤矿企业的安全管理水平。因此,对煤矿企业开展安全评价尤为重要。
本文首先阐述了煤矿安全评价中常用的几种评价方法,分别对比了各自的优缺点,之后提出了建立在未确知数学理论基础上的未确知测度评价方法。本文结合伯方煤矿的具体情况,将未确知测度评价方法与伯方煤矿提供的信息数据相结合,确定了评价指标体系,划分了指标体系的评价空间,利用信息熵求得各指标的权重,建立了伯方煤矿综合安全评价的未确知测度评价模型,运用未确知测度评价模型对煤矿进行综合评价,得出煤矿的安全等级,并提出安全措施。对提高伯方煤矿现有的安全管理水平以及有效地控制煤矿事故的发生具有重要意义。
Coal industry is the important foundation of our national economy development, but the coal mine industrial accidents have restricted the coal mine production seriously and brought the life and the property damage to some person even to the country. Conducted scientifically and rationally safety assessment on the coal mine enterprises, which is not only to promote coal mine safety in production enterprises, but also to comprehensively and effectively enhance the level of safety management of the coal mine enterprises. So it is particularly important to carry out the safety production for the coal mine enterprises.
This thesis has analyzed the advantage and disadvantage of the several common assessment methods on the coal mine at present, after that introduce the assessment method of unascertained measure which is based on the unascertained mathematics theory. Combined the unascertained measure theory and the data of the BOFANG coal mine, established the assessment index system and divided the assessment of space, and then confirmed weigh by using entropy, at last established the BOFANG coal mine comprehensive safety assessment model, and got the level of security of coal mine by using the assessment model ,put forward safety measures, as well as had the important significance in controlling the coal mine accidents.
本文首先阐述了煤矿安全评价中常用的几种评价方法,分别对比了各自的优缺点,之后提出了建立在未确知数学理论基础上的未确知测度评价方法。本文结合伯方煤矿的具体情况,将未确知测度评价方法与伯方煤矿提供的信息数据相结合,确定了评价指标体系,划分了指标体系的评价空间,利用信息熵求得各指标的权重,建立了伯方煤矿综合安全评价的未确知测度评价模型,运用未确知测度评价模型对煤矿进行综合评价,得出煤矿的安全等级,并提出安全措施。对提高伯方煤矿现有的安全管理水平以及有效地控制煤矿事故的发生具有重要意义。
Coal industry is the important foundation of our national economy development, but the coal mine industrial accidents have restricted the coal mine production seriously and brought the life and the property damage to some person even to the country. Conducted scientifically and rationally safety assessment on the coal mine enterprises, which is not only to promote coal mine safety in production enterprises, but also to comprehensively and effectively enhance the level of safety management of the coal mine enterprises. So it is particularly important to carry out the safety production for the coal mine enterprises.
This thesis has analyzed the advantage and disadvantage of the several common assessment methods on the coal mine at present, after that introduce the assessment method of unascertained measure which is based on the unascertained mathematics theory. Combined the unascertained measure theory and the data of the BOFANG coal mine, established the assessment index system and divided the assessment of space, and then confirmed weigh by using entropy, at last established the BOFANG coal mine comprehensive safety assessment model, and got the level of security of coal mine by using the assessment model ,put forward safety measures, as well as had the important significance in controlling the coal mine accidents.
引文
[1]中国煤炭学会“煤炭工业可持续发展研究”课题组.煤炭工业可持续发展几个重要领域的研究科研报告.2002
[2]梁海慧.中国煤矿企业安全管理问题研究[D].沈阳:辽宁大学,2006
[3]国汉芬.煤矿安全事故致因因素经济学分析与风险管理方法[D].对外经济贸易大学博士学位论文,2007
[4] AICHE.Dow Chemica1 Explosion index Guide.First Edition,1997,(7):19
[5] Enk.Hollnagal.Reliability of man machine interaction.Reliability Engineering and system Safety,1999,57~66
[6] Antonio Bogarin.Fault一tree analysis:Aknowledge Engineering Approach transaction on Reliability,2002,333~335
[7]王广亮.系统工程与安全评价[M].冶金工业部环境保护研究所,1991
[8]张景林,崔国璋.安全系统工程[M].北京:煤炭工业出版社,2002.79
[9] Hollnagle.Reliability of man-machine interaction.Reliability Engineering andSystem Safety,1992,(38):81~89
[10] Finkelam.Risk assessment research:only the eginning.RiskAnalysis,1994,14(6):97~110
[11] Denny,V.E.,Gilbert,K.J.Risk Assessment Methodologies:An Application To Underground Mine Systems.Journal of Safety Research,v10,n1,1978,24~34
[12] Serrano,J.Reliability and safety evaluation techniques for components and processes.IFAC Symposia Series,n6,1992.113~122
[13] Takada,Satomi.Probabilistic risk assessment for Japanese experiment module.European Space Agency,ESA SP,n8,July,1997,645
[14] Ai-Taweel,A.B.Gas-system safety evaluation using a TMFS.SPE Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition,ATCE 2005,413~419
[15] Wormuth,Matthias.Assessments of direct human exposure-The approach of EU risk assessments compared to scenario-based risk assessment.Risk Analysis,v27,n4,August,2007,979~990
[16]罗曼尼RV.评估危险和安全的工伤事故分析法[J].国外金属矿山,1993,(7):57~60
[17] Sipsoucc.Risk assessment as the basis for the introduction of new system[J].Mining Engineering,1995,(11):343~348
[18]施式亮.矿井安全非线性动力学评价模型及应用研究[D].南京:中南大学,2000
[19]胡宁.下屿口煤矿安全评价体系构建及应用研究[D].西安:西安科技大学,2006
[20]袁旭.安全评价方法论[J].中国安全科学学报(增刊),1993:20~24
[21]张兰.煤矿安全事故预测与风险性评价[D].重庆:重庆大学,2005
[22]曹庆贵.煤矿安全评价与安全信息管理[M].中国矿业大学出版社,1993
[23]王显政等.煤矿安全新技术[M].北京:煤炭工业出版社,2000
[24] Bingsheng Wu,Jinjun Jiang,Xuanchi Zhou. Research of Synthesis Safety Evaluation and Intelligence Decision System on Coal Mine,(GCIS 2009),2009.5
[25]张玉林.煤矿安全综合评价研究[D].辽宁:沈阳工业大学,2007
[26]彭伟功,周继军,向晓东.可靠性理论在公共安全领域的应用研究[J].中国安全科学学报,2009,4,19(4):17
[27]彭伟功,李春光,杨德钦.可靠性理论在建筑施工安全领域的应用研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2009,8,5(4):115
[28]煤炭工业部.矿井通风质量标准及检查评定办法[M].北京:煤炭工业出版社,1982
[29]煤炭工业部.生产矿井质量标准化标准[M].北京:煤炭工业出版社, 1994
[30]国家安全生产监督管理局.安全评价通则[M].北京.2007
[31]张嘉勇.煤矿安全现状综合评价方法研究[D].河北:河北理工大学,2005
[32]谢贤平,赵梓成.应用层次分析法综合评价矿井通风系统[J].矿山技术,1990,(5):16~19
[33] John G.kreifelch.Expert options,Fuzzy probabilities and wornings:toward a mathematical mathod for evaluating waring reed and heed effentieness.Safety Science,1993,10
[34] American Insitute of Chemical Engineer.Guide of Hazard Evaluation Procedure.2000(1)
[35] E.J.Henley.Kumamoto Designing for Reliability and safety Control Prenticl-Hill,Inc.2000,78~89
[36]吴茂森译.概率与信息[M].上海科学技术出版社,1960
[37]张爱霞.煤矿安全综合评价与伤亡事故预测方法研究[D].河北:河北理工大学,2005
[38]陈祎.基于人工神经网络的石油化工企业安全评价研究[D] .福建:福州大学,2004
[39]李彦苍,石华旺.一种基于未确知测度的煤矿安全评价模型[J].天然气工业,2003(4):11~14
[40]闫乐林.未确知数学在煤矿安全综合评价中的应用研究[D].西安:西安科技大学,2004
[41]国家安全生产监督管理总局,国家煤矿安全监察局.煤矿安全规程[M].煤炭工业出版社,2006
[42]张超.煤矿综合安全实时风险评价与智能决策支持系统[D].河北:河北工程大学,2009
[43]杨志民.未确知信息的数学处理方法[M].中国管理科学,2000,(8):192
[44]石华旺.一种基于熵权的未确知测度评价方法与应用[J].统计与决策,2008,(12):163
[45]刘开第等.未确知数学[M].武汉:华中理工大学出版社,1997
[46]庞彦军,王小胜等.基于指标区分权重的未确知测度综合评价模型及其应用[J].大学数学,2008,(2):120~121
[47]李万庆,张立宁等.基于信息熵与未确知测度的MIS综合评价模型研究[J].河北建筑科技学院学报,2005,(3):49
[48]刘开第等.模糊隶属度定义中隐含的问题[J].系统工程理论与实践,2000,(1):110~112
[49] Li Lie, Jia Ruijuan, Liu Yanjie. The Application of Unascertained Mathematics in Stock Speculation Performance [M]. International Institute for General Systems Studies Special Issue,1997,103~108
[50] Atanassov K,Gargov G.Interval valued intuitionistic fuzzy sets[J].Fuzzy Sets and Systems,1989,31(3):343~349
[51] CANNADY James. Artificial Neural Networks for Misuse Detection [C]. NISSC' 98, 1998
[52] Huang S.A , Tan K.K , Tang K.Z . Neural Network control : Theory and Applications[M].England:Research Studies Press LTD,2004
[53]万玉成,盛昭瀚.基于未确知测度的风险投资非系统风险的评价与控制[J].系统工理论与实践,2004,(11):22~27
[54]陈景灿,王丛.综合安全评价指标体系设计初探[J].中国安全科学学报,1993,3(S):426~429
[55]程乾生.层次分析法AHP和属性层次模型AHM[J].系统工程理论与实践.1997,17(11): 25~28
[56]程乾生.属性层次模型AHM一种新的无结构决策方法[J].北京大学学报(自然科学版,1998,(1):10~14
[57]吴裕祥.多层次模糊数学综合评价的数学模型及其在煤矿中的应用[J].煤炭学报,1985,(1):25~26
[58]赵焕臣,许树柏,金生.层次分析法—一种简易决策方法[M].北京:科学出版社,1996
[59] Yang Zhimin. Unascertained topohogical space[J] .ASSA, 1997,( Special Issue):59~57
[60]王瑜.未确知信息的描述及其推广[A].第六届中国青年运筹与管理学者大会:秦皇岛,2004,(7):44~47
[2]梁海慧.中国煤矿企业安全管理问题研究[D].沈阳:辽宁大学,2006
[3]国汉芬.煤矿安全事故致因因素经济学分析与风险管理方法[D].对外经济贸易大学博士学位论文,2007
[4] AICHE.Dow Chemica1 Explosion index Guide.First Edition,1997,(7):19
[5] Enk.Hollnagal.Reliability of man machine interaction.Reliability Engineering and system Safety,1999,57~66
[6] Antonio Bogarin.Fault一tree analysis:Aknowledge Engineering Approach transaction on Reliability,2002,333~335
[7]王广亮.系统工程与安全评价[M].冶金工业部环境保护研究所,1991
[8]张景林,崔国璋.安全系统工程[M].北京:煤炭工业出版社,2002.79
[9] Hollnagle.Reliability of man-machine interaction.Reliability Engineering andSystem Safety,1992,(38):81~89
[10] Finkelam.Risk assessment research:only the eginning.RiskAnalysis,1994,14(6):97~110
[11] Denny,V.E.,Gilbert,K.J.Risk Assessment Methodologies:An Application To Underground Mine Systems.Journal of Safety Research,v10,n1,1978,24~34
[12] Serrano,J.Reliability and safety evaluation techniques for components and processes.IFAC Symposia Series,n6,1992.113~122
[13] Takada,Satomi.Probabilistic risk assessment for Japanese experiment module.European Space Agency,ESA SP,n8,July,1997,645
[14] Ai-Taweel,A.B.Gas-system safety evaluation using a TMFS.SPE Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition,ATCE 2005,413~419
[15] Wormuth,Matthias.Assessments of direct human exposure-The approach of EU risk assessments compared to scenario-based risk assessment.Risk Analysis,v27,n4,August,2007,979~990
[16]罗曼尼RV.评估危险和安全的工伤事故分析法[J].国外金属矿山,1993,(7):57~60
[17] Sipsoucc.Risk assessment as the basis for the introduction of new system[J].Mining Engineering,1995,(11):343~348
[18]施式亮.矿井安全非线性动力学评价模型及应用研究[D].南京:中南大学,2000
[19]胡宁.下屿口煤矿安全评价体系构建及应用研究[D].西安:西安科技大学,2006
[20]袁旭.安全评价方法论[J].中国安全科学学报(增刊),1993:20~24
[21]张兰.煤矿安全事故预测与风险性评价[D].重庆:重庆大学,2005
[22]曹庆贵.煤矿安全评价与安全信息管理[M].中国矿业大学出版社,1993
[23]王显政等.煤矿安全新技术[M].北京:煤炭工业出版社,2000
[24] Bingsheng Wu,Jinjun Jiang,Xuanchi Zhou. Research of Synthesis Safety Evaluation and Intelligence Decision System on Coal Mine,(GCIS 2009),2009.5
[25]张玉林.煤矿安全综合评价研究[D].辽宁:沈阳工业大学,2007
[26]彭伟功,周继军,向晓东.可靠性理论在公共安全领域的应用研究[J].中国安全科学学报,2009,4,19(4):17
[27]彭伟功,李春光,杨德钦.可靠性理论在建筑施工安全领域的应用研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2009,8,5(4):115
[28]煤炭工业部.矿井通风质量标准及检查评定办法[M].北京:煤炭工业出版社,1982
[29]煤炭工业部.生产矿井质量标准化标准[M].北京:煤炭工业出版社, 1994
[30]国家安全生产监督管理局.安全评价通则[M].北京.2007
[31]张嘉勇.煤矿安全现状综合评价方法研究[D].河北:河北理工大学,2005
[32]谢贤平,赵梓成.应用层次分析法综合评价矿井通风系统[J].矿山技术,1990,(5):16~19
[33] John G.kreifelch.Expert options,Fuzzy probabilities and wornings:toward a mathematical mathod for evaluating waring reed and heed effentieness.Safety Science,1993,10
[34] American Insitute of Chemical Engineer.Guide of Hazard Evaluation Procedure.2000(1)
[35] E.J.Henley.Kumamoto Designing for Reliability and safety Control Prenticl-Hill,Inc.2000,78~89
[36]吴茂森译.概率与信息[M].上海科学技术出版社,1960
[37]张爱霞.煤矿安全综合评价与伤亡事故预测方法研究[D].河北:河北理工大学,2005
[38]陈祎.基于人工神经网络的石油化工企业安全评价研究[D] .福建:福州大学,2004
[39]李彦苍,石华旺.一种基于未确知测度的煤矿安全评价模型[J].天然气工业,2003(4):11~14
[40]闫乐林.未确知数学在煤矿安全综合评价中的应用研究[D].西安:西安科技大学,2004
[41]国家安全生产监督管理总局,国家煤矿安全监察局.煤矿安全规程[M].煤炭工业出版社,2006
[42]张超.煤矿综合安全实时风险评价与智能决策支持系统[D].河北:河北工程大学,2009
[43]杨志民.未确知信息的数学处理方法[M].中国管理科学,2000,(8):192
[44]石华旺.一种基于熵权的未确知测度评价方法与应用[J].统计与决策,2008,(12):163
[45]刘开第等.未确知数学[M].武汉:华中理工大学出版社,1997
[46]庞彦军,王小胜等.基于指标区分权重的未确知测度综合评价模型及其应用[J].大学数学,2008,(2):120~121
[47]李万庆,张立宁等.基于信息熵与未确知测度的MIS综合评价模型研究[J].河北建筑科技学院学报,2005,(3):49
[48]刘开第等.模糊隶属度定义中隐含的问题[J].系统工程理论与实践,2000,(1):110~112
[49] Li Lie, Jia Ruijuan, Liu Yanjie. The Application of Unascertained Mathematics in Stock Speculation Performance [M]. International Institute for General Systems Studies Special Issue,1997,103~108
[50] Atanassov K,Gargov G.Interval valued intuitionistic fuzzy sets[J].Fuzzy Sets and Systems,1989,31(3):343~349
[51] CANNADY James. Artificial Neural Networks for Misuse Detection [C]. NISSC' 98, 1998
[52] Huang S.A , Tan K.K , Tang K.Z . Neural Network control : Theory and Applications[M].England:Research Studies Press LTD,2004
[53]万玉成,盛昭瀚.基于未确知测度的风险投资非系统风险的评价与控制[J].系统工理论与实践,2004,(11):22~27
[54]陈景灿,王丛.综合安全评价指标体系设计初探[J].中国安全科学学报,1993,3(S):426~429
[55]程乾生.层次分析法AHP和属性层次模型AHM[J].系统工程理论与实践.1997,17(11): 25~28
[56]程乾生.属性层次模型AHM一种新的无结构决策方法[J].北京大学学报(自然科学版,1998,(1):10~14
[57]吴裕祥.多层次模糊数学综合评价的数学模型及其在煤矿中的应用[J].煤炭学报,1985,(1):25~26
[58]赵焕臣,许树柏,金生.层次分析法—一种简易决策方法[M].北京:科学出版社,1996
[59] Yang Zhimin. Unascertained topohogical space[J] .ASSA, 1997,( Special Issue):59~57
[60]王瑜.未确知信息的描述及其推广[A].第六届中国青年运筹与管理学者大会:秦皇岛,2004,(7):44~47