东中国海波候对局地气候变化的响应研究
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摘要
波候研究对于解释全球气候变化的内在物理机制,理解全球气候变化后人们的生产、生活环境由此而产生的相关变化都具有重要的现实意义。
本文利用了欧洲中尺度气象中心(ECMWF)所提供的最新的近45年(1957-2002)全球同化资料集,该资料集提供每天4次天气尺度的环境要素信息。本研究从中提取海面矢量风场信息,并以此来驱动第三代海洋波浪模式WAVEWATCH-III v2.22,从而构建了历时45年的西北太平洋地区的波候资料。使用日本气象厅(Japan Meteorological Agency)所提供的B22001号浮标的实地观测资料,以及美国的TOPEX/POSEIDON卫星高度计资料对本研究通过数值模拟所获取的波候资料进行验证,发现通过这一方法所重建的历史波候资料完全满足对东中国海波候状况进行分析的精度要求。通过参考前人的研究成果,本研究所获取的波候时间序列满足对气候问题进行评估时所必需的数据序列一致性的基本要求,可以用于长时间序列的分析。
运用经验正交函数(empirical orthogonal function,EOF)分析方法,本研究提取了东中国海地区的极值波高的分布特征。根据分析结果,本研究将时间序列分成“1977年前”和“1977年后”两段,并据此比较两段的变化特征。研究发现,东中国海北部地区(黄海)的极值波高在最近45年内存在缓慢的衰减现象,导致这一现象的原因主要是由于该地区的东亚夏季风正在慢慢减弱。而东中国海南部的极值波高在最近45年内则存在增强的现象,这主要是由于活跃在西北太平洋上的热带气旋正在慢慢加强,由于这些热带气旋所产生的涌浪对东中国近海的影响也在慢慢加深。
通过将本研究的研究成果和前人的成果进行对比,我们不难发现:西北太平洋地区热带气旋活动的增强已经是一个比较普遍接受的事实,而这一变化对东中国近海所能构成的影响范围足以影响到整个东中国海的中南部地区。而东亚季风减弱对东中国海波候所造成的影响,也从另一个角度提示我们,从能量的角度重新审视全球气候变化的内在物理机制或许是非常必要的。
Studies of wave climate are important to interpret the internal physical mechanisms of global climate variations and are also helpful to explain the changes of human beings’living environments.
Present study used the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) 40-year reanalysis products (1977-2002) to derive the sea surface wind field. By using the 4 times per day weather data, we can drive the third generation wave model WAVEWATCH-III v2.22 to retrieve the recent 45 year wave climate in the western North Pacific.
The model retrieved wave climate had been compared with Japan Meteorological Agency B22001 buoy observed data and U.S. TOPEX/POSEIDON satellite altimeter measured wave height. Present retrieved wave climate is suitable to use to analyze the wave climate in the East China Sea.
Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis helped us to extract the spatial and temporal variation of extreme wave height distributions in the East China Sea. By comparison with“early year”and“later year”, decreases in extreme wave height in the northern East China Sea (Yellow Sea) correspond to attenuation of the East Asian Summer Monsoon, while increases in the south are primarily due to enhancement of tropical cyclone activities in the western North Pacific.
By comparison with previous achievements, the intensification of tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific is identified as a reality. Such variation can influence the middle and southern part of the East China Sea, while the changes of East Asian Monsoon Circulation mentioned us that the energy transportation maybe another important aspect to clarify the internal mechanisms of global climate variations.
本文利用了欧洲中尺度气象中心(ECMWF)所提供的最新的近45年(1957-2002)全球同化资料集,该资料集提供每天4次天气尺度的环境要素信息。本研究从中提取海面矢量风场信息,并以此来驱动第三代海洋波浪模式WAVEWATCH-III v2.22,从而构建了历时45年的西北太平洋地区的波候资料。使用日本气象厅(Japan Meteorological Agency)所提供的B22001号浮标的实地观测资料,以及美国的TOPEX/POSEIDON卫星高度计资料对本研究通过数值模拟所获取的波候资料进行验证,发现通过这一方法所重建的历史波候资料完全满足对东中国海波候状况进行分析的精度要求。通过参考前人的研究成果,本研究所获取的波候时间序列满足对气候问题进行评估时所必需的数据序列一致性的基本要求,可以用于长时间序列的分析。
运用经验正交函数(empirical orthogonal function,EOF)分析方法,本研究提取了东中国海地区的极值波高的分布特征。根据分析结果,本研究将时间序列分成“1977年前”和“1977年后”两段,并据此比较两段的变化特征。研究发现,东中国海北部地区(黄海)的极值波高在最近45年内存在缓慢的衰减现象,导致这一现象的原因主要是由于该地区的东亚夏季风正在慢慢减弱。而东中国海南部的极值波高在最近45年内则存在增强的现象,这主要是由于活跃在西北太平洋上的热带气旋正在慢慢加强,由于这些热带气旋所产生的涌浪对东中国近海的影响也在慢慢加深。
通过将本研究的研究成果和前人的成果进行对比,我们不难发现:西北太平洋地区热带气旋活动的增强已经是一个比较普遍接受的事实,而这一变化对东中国近海所能构成的影响范围足以影响到整个东中国海的中南部地区。而东亚季风减弱对东中国海波候所造成的影响,也从另一个角度提示我们,从能量的角度重新审视全球气候变化的内在物理机制或许是非常必要的。
Studies of wave climate are important to interpret the internal physical mechanisms of global climate variations and are also helpful to explain the changes of human beings’living environments.
Present study used the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) 40-year reanalysis products (1977-2002) to derive the sea surface wind field. By using the 4 times per day weather data, we can drive the third generation wave model WAVEWATCH-III v2.22 to retrieve the recent 45 year wave climate in the western North Pacific.
The model retrieved wave climate had been compared with Japan Meteorological Agency B22001 buoy observed data and U.S. TOPEX/POSEIDON satellite altimeter measured wave height. Present retrieved wave climate is suitable to use to analyze the wave climate in the East China Sea.
Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis helped us to extract the spatial and temporal variation of extreme wave height distributions in the East China Sea. By comparison with“early year”and“later year”, decreases in extreme wave height in the northern East China Sea (Yellow Sea) correspond to attenuation of the East Asian Summer Monsoon, while increases in the south are primarily due to enhancement of tropical cyclone activities in the western North Pacific.
By comparison with previous achievements, the intensification of tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific is identified as a reality. Such variation can influence the middle and southern part of the East China Sea, while the changes of East Asian Monsoon Circulation mentioned us that the energy transportation maybe another important aspect to clarify the internal mechanisms of global climate variations.
引文
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