陕北黄土高原区地质灾害与降雨关系研究
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摘要
本论文以陕北黄土高原区为研究区,在总结和分析前人研究成果的基础上,首先全面搜集和统计1960-2008年有准确发生时间记录的地质灾害事件,然后针对每一个有发生时间记录的地质灾害事件查阅其对应的降雨量系列,建立地质灾害及其对应降雨量数据库,在分析陕北黄土高原区降雨量和地质灾害时空分布特征的基础上,探索了陕北黄土高原区地质灾害与降雨之间的关系。研究主要内容包括：
(1)地质灾害与降雨的分布特征的相关性研究。通过对1990-2008年陕北黄土高原区地质灾害空间分布的研究,多年平均降雨量空间分布和累计暴雨次数的空间分布进行对比分析和研究,得出陕北黄土高原区地质灾害的空间分布与多年平均降雨量的空间分布有很好的相关性,与累计暴雨次数空间分布的相关性更高。并从地质灾害和降雨的时间分布特征包括年分布特征,月分布特征和日分布特征的相关性进行分析,得出地质灾害的月际分布和月降雨量分布有明显的正相关性,而与局地暴雨月频数的相关性相对较差。
(2)地质灾害与前期降雨的相关性研究。通过x-y散点图,直方图和百分比曲线图对地质灾害和前期累计降雨量进行统计分析,发现10.1-20.Omm和20.1-30.Omm这个量级发生的崩塌次数最多；滑坡在70.0-80.0这个量级发生的次数最多；用日降雨量对数据进行分组统计,分析地质灾害和前期降雨强度的相关性,得出暴雨(日降雨量≥50mm)诱发的地质灾害主要出现在当日,大雨(日降雨量≥25mm)诱发的地质灾害主要出现在当日和次日,而小雨和中雨诱发的地质灾害在各日均有可能发生；通过对前期降雨日数的统计,分析地质灾害与前期降雨持续时间相关性,得陕北黄土高原区的地质灾害属于多日降雨诱发型。
(3)不同地貌类型下地质灾害与降雨的相关性研究。统计地质灾害点所处的地貌类型,得出研究区的地质灾害主要发生在黄土梁峁和残塬区。进一步运用百分比曲线,二项Logistic回归模型和x-y散点图得出三种不同地貌类型下,地质灾害发生的概率公式和临界降雨量公式。
In this thesis, as the study area in loess plateau of Northern Shanxi Province, in the summary and analysis based on the results of previous studies,first comprehensive collection and statistics 1960-2008, there were an accurate record of the occurrence time of geological disasters,then for each recorded a time of occurrence of geological disasters access to their corresponding rainfall series, to establish a database of geological hazards and the corresponding rainfall,Loess Plateau area in the analysis of rainfall and temporal and spatial distribution of geological disasters, based on the 1 exploration of the Loess Plateau area between geologica disasters and rainfall. Study include:
(1) The distribution characteristics correlation of geological hazards and rainfall correlation.By 1990-2008 the Loess Plateau area in the spatial distribution of geological disasters.the average annual rainfall and accumulated rainfall spatial distribution of the spatial distribution of the number of comparative analysis and research, obtained the Loess Plateau area and the spatial distribution of geological disasters the spatial distribution of the average annual rainfall has a good correlation with the total number of spatial distribution of rainfall more relevant.From geological disasters and the time distribution of rainfall distribution, including in the monthly distribution and distribution of the correlation on the analysis, obtained monthly distribution of geological disasters, and the monthly rainfall distribution was positively correlated with of storm frequency on the relatively poor correlation.
(2)Correlation of geological disasters and pre-rainfall correlation. Through the x-y scatter plot, histogram and percentage of curve on the early geological disasters and the cumulative rainfall for statistical analysis, found that 10.1-20.0mm and 20.1-30.0mm collapse of this magnitude occurred most frequently; decline in the amount of 70.0-80.0 level occurred most frequently; with daily rainfall data to group statistics, analysis of geological disasters and the relevance of early rainfall intensity, come rain (daily rainfall≥50mm) induced geological disasters occurred mainly in the day, heavy rain (rain date volume≥25mm) induced geological disasters occurred mainly in the day and the next day, while light rain and moderate rain-induced geological disasters may occur in the day; through the early days of rainfall statistics, analysis of geological hazards associated with the early duration of rainfall nature, may Loess Plateau, the geological disasters are many days of rainfall-induced type.
(3)Under different landforms of geological disasters in correlation with rainfall. Statistical point of geological disasters in which the landscape types of geological disasters in the study area come mainly in the loess plateau area and the disabled. Further use of the percentage curve,2 Logistic regression model and xy scatter obtained under three different landforms, geological disasters and the critical rainfall probability formula formula.
(1)地质灾害与降雨的分布特征的相关性研究。通过对1990-2008年陕北黄土高原区地质灾害空间分布的研究,多年平均降雨量空间分布和累计暴雨次数的空间分布进行对比分析和研究,得出陕北黄土高原区地质灾害的空间分布与多年平均降雨量的空间分布有很好的相关性,与累计暴雨次数空间分布的相关性更高。并从地质灾害和降雨的时间分布特征包括年分布特征,月分布特征和日分布特征的相关性进行分析,得出地质灾害的月际分布和月降雨量分布有明显的正相关性,而与局地暴雨月频数的相关性相对较差。
(2)地质灾害与前期降雨的相关性研究。通过x-y散点图,直方图和百分比曲线图对地质灾害和前期累计降雨量进行统计分析,发现10.1-20.Omm和20.1-30.Omm这个量级发生的崩塌次数最多；滑坡在70.0-80.0这个量级发生的次数最多；用日降雨量对数据进行分组统计,分析地质灾害和前期降雨强度的相关性,得出暴雨(日降雨量≥50mm)诱发的地质灾害主要出现在当日,大雨(日降雨量≥25mm)诱发的地质灾害主要出现在当日和次日,而小雨和中雨诱发的地质灾害在各日均有可能发生；通过对前期降雨日数的统计,分析地质灾害与前期降雨持续时间相关性,得陕北黄土高原区的地质灾害属于多日降雨诱发型。
(3)不同地貌类型下地质灾害与降雨的相关性研究。统计地质灾害点所处的地貌类型,得出研究区的地质灾害主要发生在黄土梁峁和残塬区。进一步运用百分比曲线,二项Logistic回归模型和x-y散点图得出三种不同地貌类型下,地质灾害发生的概率公式和临界降雨量公式。
In this thesis, as the study area in loess plateau of Northern Shanxi Province, in the summary and analysis based on the results of previous studies,first comprehensive collection and statistics 1960-2008, there were an accurate record of the occurrence time of geological disasters,then for each recorded a time of occurrence of geological disasters access to their corresponding rainfall series, to establish a database of geological hazards and the corresponding rainfall,Loess Plateau area in the analysis of rainfall and temporal and spatial distribution of geological disasters, based on the 1 exploration of the Loess Plateau area between geologica disasters and rainfall. Study include:
(1) The distribution characteristics correlation of geological hazards and rainfall correlation.By 1990-2008 the Loess Plateau area in the spatial distribution of geological disasters.the average annual rainfall and accumulated rainfall spatial distribution of the spatial distribution of the number of comparative analysis and research, obtained the Loess Plateau area and the spatial distribution of geological disasters the spatial distribution of the average annual rainfall has a good correlation with the total number of spatial distribution of rainfall more relevant.From geological disasters and the time distribution of rainfall distribution, including in the monthly distribution and distribution of the correlation on the analysis, obtained monthly distribution of geological disasters, and the monthly rainfall distribution was positively correlated with of storm frequency on the relatively poor correlation.
(2)Correlation of geological disasters and pre-rainfall correlation. Through the x-y scatter plot, histogram and percentage of curve on the early geological disasters and the cumulative rainfall for statistical analysis, found that 10.1-20.0mm and 20.1-30.0mm collapse of this magnitude occurred most frequently; decline in the amount of 70.0-80.0 level occurred most frequently; with daily rainfall data to group statistics, analysis of geological disasters and the relevance of early rainfall intensity, come rain (daily rainfall≥50mm) induced geological disasters occurred mainly in the day, heavy rain (rain date volume≥25mm) induced geological disasters occurred mainly in the day and the next day, while light rain and moderate rain-induced geological disasters may occur in the day; through the early days of rainfall statistics, analysis of geological hazards associated with the early duration of rainfall nature, may Loess Plateau, the geological disasters are many days of rainfall-induced type.
(3)Under different landforms of geological disasters in correlation with rainfall. Statistical point of geological disasters in which the landscape types of geological disasters in the study area come mainly in the loess plateau area and the disabled. Further use of the percentage curve,2 Logistic regression model and xy scatter obtained under three different landforms, geological disasters and the critical rainfall probability formula formula.
引文
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