内蒙古草原火灾监测预警及评价研究
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摘要
本文以内蒙古自治区为研究区，针对我国草原火灾监测预警及评价中的薄弱环节，通过大量的野外调查与试验,基于3S技术对内蒙古草原枯草期可燃物量进行遥感估测、内蒙古草原火险预警、亚像元火点面积估测、风险评价、损失评估和草原火灾生态环境影响评价等进行研究得出以下几个方面结果：
（1）在各类草原可燃物量与MODIS数据第1、2通道光谱反射率均有显著的负相关关系，在草甸草原、典型草原、荒漠化草原和草原化荒漠第1通道反射率比第2通道反射率相关性更高；在荒漠第2通道反射率比第1通道反射率相关性更高。利用相关性高的通道建立估测模型，经过精度检验后可知，典型草原、草原化荒漠和荒漠反演结果与实测的相关性分别为0.78、0.84、0.71的高度显著相关；草甸草原和荒漠草原分别为0.71和0.78的显著相关。各类草地可燃物估测模型都已达到了宏观监测的标准。
（2）选取枯草期可燃物量等7个指标建立内蒙古草原火险预警模型，通过精度检验准确率达96.42%，表明该草原火险等级预报方法指标选取与等级划分合理，可以用于草原火险短期预报的实际应用。
（3）提出了以Landsat TM高分辨率遥感数据为外部数据源的EOS/MODIS数据草原火灾亚像元火点面积估算基本流程和关键技术，应用该方法对2012年4月7日的锡林郭勒盟草原火灾的火点进行面积估算后获知实际上正在着火的面积才79.3km~2。如果忽略混合像元的存在，直接按像元为单位计算火点面积的结果为192km~2。可知该方法能够提高火点面积提取精度。
（4）基于格雷厄姆-金尼法（LEC）和层次分析法(AHP模型)构建了草原火灾风险评价指标和模型。应用模型计算出内蒙古自治区各盟市在未来几年内呼伦贝尔市、锡林郭勒盟、兴安盟、通辽市、赤峰市的危险性高。
（5）建立了较规范的草原火灾损失评价指标体系及草原火灾损失评估模型，以锡林郭勒盟2012年4月7日的草原火灾为例进行损失评估研究。结果显示，火灾过火面积为778km~2，造成死亡2人，轻伤8人，烧毁饲草3738万kg，按市价为0.3元/kg计算烧毁饲草的价格为1121万元。按草原火灾损失等级划分标准可以得知，此次火灾属于特别重大(Ⅰ级)草原火灾。
（6）以针茅草地为研究区，进行冬季和春季不同时间计划火烧试验后进行植被群落野外调查和土壤理化性状实验分析。选取生物量等10个指标建立草原火生态环境影响评价模型，将火烧后的生态环境划分为明显变好、变好、变差和明显变差等四个等级。从评价结果中可以获知与未烧地相比经过火烧处理后的针茅草地的生态环境质量变差。
本研究为管理部门做好灾前预警、实时监测、灾后快速反应及制定科学的防灾减灾对策提供及时、准确的信息服务和技术支撑。并实现从目前被动的灾后管理模式向灾前预警、灾时应急和灾后救援三个阶段一体化的草原火灾综合管理与控制模式的转变，全面提高我国草原火灾应急管理工作的科技水平。
This paper takes the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region as the researcharea, in accordance with the weak link of our country grassland fireemergency management and assessment, remote sensing estimation of thewithered season fuel weight, fire risk warning, sub-pixel fire areaestimation,risk assessment, loss evaluation and grassland fire ecologyenvironmental impact assessment and etc has been investigated based on3Stechnology via a multitude of field investigations and experiments, resultsmainly including the following several aspects:
(1) All types of grassland fuel and first and second channel spectralreflectivity of MODIS data have significant negative correlation. The firstchannel reflectivity of grassland fuel in meadow steppe, typical steppe, desertsteppe and grassland desertification area has higher correlation than secondchannel’s, and in the desert the second channel reflectivity has highercorrelation than the first one. Using the channel which have high correlations has established estimation model, the accuracy test proves that the correlationcoefficient between measured data and the inversion result of typical steppe,steppe-desert and desert are respectively0.78、0.84、0.71, all highly correlated;Meadow steppe and desert steppe are0.71and0.78significant correlated;Various types of grassland fuel estimation model have reached themacroscopic monitoring standard.
(2) Selecting7indicators such as withered period grassland fuel and etchas established grassland fire warning model of Inner Mongolia, accuracycould be up to96.42%through the precision test. The result shows that indexselection and hierarchy classification is reasonable for the prediction methodof grassland fire danger rating, therefore, it can be used for practicalapplication of grassland fire danger forecast.
(3) The Landsat TM high resolution remote sensing data as an externaldata source for the EOS/MODIS and put forward the basic flow and the keytechnology of the grassland fire sub-pixel fire area estimation, the method canaccurately estimate the sub-pixel fire area. Through application of the methodto estimate the area of fire point, find out that the area of on fire is79.3 km~2.But if ignore the existence of mixed pixels and directly use pixel units tocalculate the area of the fire point,the result is192km~2. So, the method canimprove the accuracy of extraction of fire point’s area.
(4)Based on the Graham Kinney method (LEC) and analytical hierarchyprocess method (AHP model) have constructed grassland fire risk evaluationindex and model. Application of the model to calculate the Inner MongoliaAutonomous Region each leagues’ and cities’ fire risk in the next few years,find that Hulunbeir City, Xilingol League, Hinggan League, Tongliao City,Chifeng City have a high risk.
(5) This study has established a more regulated grassland fire disasterloss evaluation index system and grassland fire loss assessment model, takingXilingol League April7,2012grassland fire as an example, the result showthat the fire area is778km~2, has caused death2people and minor injury8people, burned forage grass37.38million kg, financial loss calculation ofbured forage grass according to the market price of0.3yuan/kg is11.21million yuan. According to standard of the grassland fire loss level division,the fire belongs to particularly significant(I level) one.
(6) In this study taking stipa grassland as the research area, using thedifferent period of winter and spring prescribed fire tests were conducted andthen do vegetation community of field investigation and soilphysico-chemical properties experimental analysis. Selecting10indicatorssuch as biomass established grassland fire ecology environmental impactassessment model, and the fired ecological environment are divided into fourgrades-the obvious better, better, worse and the worst. From the evaluationresults can be informed that compared with not burned fire area the Stipagrassland ecological environment has deteriorated for after burned area.
This research provides timely and accurate information services andtechnical support for management departments to do well disaster earlywarning, real time monitoring, and quick reaction after disaster and makescientific countermeasures for disaster prevention and mitigation. Andrealizes changing from the current passive disaster management mode to threephases─the pre-disaster early warning and disaster period emergency andafter disaster relief phases integrated grassland fire disaster comprehensivemanagement and control mode, comprehensively improves the level of emergency management science and technology of China's grassland firedisaster.
（1）在各类草原可燃物量与MODIS数据第1、2通道光谱反射率均有显著的负相关关系，在草甸草原、典型草原、荒漠化草原和草原化荒漠第1通道反射率比第2通道反射率相关性更高；在荒漠第2通道反射率比第1通道反射率相关性更高。利用相关性高的通道建立估测模型，经过精度检验后可知，典型草原、草原化荒漠和荒漠反演结果与实测的相关性分别为0.78、0.84、0.71的高度显著相关；草甸草原和荒漠草原分别为0.71和0.78的显著相关。各类草地可燃物估测模型都已达到了宏观监测的标准。
（2）选取枯草期可燃物量等7个指标建立内蒙古草原火险预警模型，通过精度检验准确率达96.42%，表明该草原火险等级预报方法指标选取与等级划分合理，可以用于草原火险短期预报的实际应用。
（3）提出了以Landsat TM高分辨率遥感数据为外部数据源的EOS/MODIS数据草原火灾亚像元火点面积估算基本流程和关键技术，应用该方法对2012年4月7日的锡林郭勒盟草原火灾的火点进行面积估算后获知实际上正在着火的面积才79.3km~2。如果忽略混合像元的存在，直接按像元为单位计算火点面积的结果为192km~2。可知该方法能够提高火点面积提取精度。
（4）基于格雷厄姆-金尼法（LEC）和层次分析法(AHP模型)构建了草原火灾风险评价指标和模型。应用模型计算出内蒙古自治区各盟市在未来几年内呼伦贝尔市、锡林郭勒盟、兴安盟、通辽市、赤峰市的危险性高。
（5）建立了较规范的草原火灾损失评价指标体系及草原火灾损失评估模型，以锡林郭勒盟2012年4月7日的草原火灾为例进行损失评估研究。结果显示，火灾过火面积为778km~2，造成死亡2人，轻伤8人，烧毁饲草3738万kg，按市价为0.3元/kg计算烧毁饲草的价格为1121万元。按草原火灾损失等级划分标准可以得知，此次火灾属于特别重大(Ⅰ级)草原火灾。
（6）以针茅草地为研究区，进行冬季和春季不同时间计划火烧试验后进行植被群落野外调查和土壤理化性状实验分析。选取生物量等10个指标建立草原火生态环境影响评价模型，将火烧后的生态环境划分为明显变好、变好、变差和明显变差等四个等级。从评价结果中可以获知与未烧地相比经过火烧处理后的针茅草地的生态环境质量变差。
本研究为管理部门做好灾前预警、实时监测、灾后快速反应及制定科学的防灾减灾对策提供及时、准确的信息服务和技术支撑。并实现从目前被动的灾后管理模式向灾前预警、灾时应急和灾后救援三个阶段一体化的草原火灾综合管理与控制模式的转变，全面提高我国草原火灾应急管理工作的科技水平。
This paper takes the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region as the researcharea, in accordance with the weak link of our country grassland fireemergency management and assessment, remote sensing estimation of thewithered season fuel weight, fire risk warning, sub-pixel fire areaestimation,risk assessment, loss evaluation and grassland fire ecologyenvironmental impact assessment and etc has been investigated based on3Stechnology via a multitude of field investigations and experiments, resultsmainly including the following several aspects:
(1) All types of grassland fuel and first and second channel spectralreflectivity of MODIS data have significant negative correlation. The firstchannel reflectivity of grassland fuel in meadow steppe, typical steppe, desertsteppe and grassland desertification area has higher correlation than secondchannel’s, and in the desert the second channel reflectivity has highercorrelation than the first one. Using the channel which have high correlations has established estimation model, the accuracy test proves that the correlationcoefficient between measured data and the inversion result of typical steppe,steppe-desert and desert are respectively0.78、0.84、0.71, all highly correlated;Meadow steppe and desert steppe are0.71and0.78significant correlated;Various types of grassland fuel estimation model have reached themacroscopic monitoring standard.
(2) Selecting7indicators such as withered period grassland fuel and etchas established grassland fire warning model of Inner Mongolia, accuracycould be up to96.42%through the precision test. The result shows that indexselection and hierarchy classification is reasonable for the prediction methodof grassland fire danger rating, therefore, it can be used for practicalapplication of grassland fire danger forecast.
(3) The Landsat TM high resolution remote sensing data as an externaldata source for the EOS/MODIS and put forward the basic flow and the keytechnology of the grassland fire sub-pixel fire area estimation, the method canaccurately estimate the sub-pixel fire area. Through application of the methodto estimate the area of fire point, find out that the area of on fire is79.3 km~2.But if ignore the existence of mixed pixels and directly use pixel units tocalculate the area of the fire point,the result is192km~2. So, the method canimprove the accuracy of extraction of fire point’s area.
(4)Based on the Graham Kinney method (LEC) and analytical hierarchyprocess method (AHP model) have constructed grassland fire risk evaluationindex and model. Application of the model to calculate the Inner MongoliaAutonomous Region each leagues’ and cities’ fire risk in the next few years,find that Hulunbeir City, Xilingol League, Hinggan League, Tongliao City,Chifeng City have a high risk.
(5) This study has established a more regulated grassland fire disasterloss evaluation index system and grassland fire loss assessment model, takingXilingol League April7,2012grassland fire as an example, the result showthat the fire area is778km~2, has caused death2people and minor injury8people, burned forage grass37.38million kg, financial loss calculation ofbured forage grass according to the market price of0.3yuan/kg is11.21million yuan. According to standard of the grassland fire loss level division,the fire belongs to particularly significant(I level) one.
(6) In this study taking stipa grassland as the research area, using thedifferent period of winter and spring prescribed fire tests were conducted andthen do vegetation community of field investigation and soilphysico-chemical properties experimental analysis. Selecting10indicatorssuch as biomass established grassland fire ecology environmental impactassessment model, and the fired ecological environment are divided into fourgrades-the obvious better, better, worse and the worst. From the evaluationresults can be informed that compared with not burned fire area the Stipagrassland ecological environment has deteriorated for after burned area.
This research provides timely and accurate information services andtechnical support for management departments to do well disaster earlywarning, real time monitoring, and quick reaction after disaster and makescientific countermeasures for disaster prevention and mitigation. Andrealizes changing from the current passive disaster management mode to threephases─the pre-disaster early warning and disaster period emergency andafter disaster relief phases integrated grassland fire disaster comprehensivemanagement and control mode, comprehensively improves the level of emergency management science and technology of China's grassland firedisaster.
引文
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