矿产资源战略评价模型与实证研究
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摘要
随着我国经济持续快速发展,国内矿产资源的消耗量也在迅速增加。尤其近几年,资源“瓶颈”制约经济发展的矛盾越来越突出,石油、铜、铝、镍、铁矿石等矿产资源严重短缺,直接影响我国经济的可持续发展。因此,为了保障国民经济健康持续发展,必须对我国矿产资源的现状和未来重新加以认识。然而我国传统矿产资源评价仅考虑技术和经济两个因素,主要体现的是战术性评价,使得人们片面地追求矿产资源自身的价值和经济效益,没有将资源与环境、经济、社会发展密切联系起来,没有把资源的开发对环境造成破坏的损失,以及经济结构、社会效益等因素考虑进去,已不能适应经济社会可持续发展的要求。因此,揭示矿产资源与区域可持续发展战略相互作用的内在机制的矿产资源战略评价就显得尤为重要。矿产资源战略评价是指,从国家战略管理的角度,从宏观层面分析矿产资源的科学配置问题。其评价内容包括：矿产资源时空协调性与可持续性、矿产资源供给的有效性与安全性。矿产资源战略评价定位是从矿产资源时空协调角度,通过选择合理的评价模型与方法来评估矿产资源供给保障风险,提出风险控制对策,构建可持续的矿产资源供给保障体系。
本文在经济社会可持续发展的总体指导方针下,建立了一个综合性的矿产资源战略评价模型,并运用这一模型,对中国煤炭资源可持续利用中最为关键的时空协调过程、供给保障风险和环境影响问题进行了实证研究,探讨了促进矿产资源可持续利用的对策,这将对进一步完善国家矿产资源开发利用的各项政策、促进国家矿产资源安全与可持续发展产生积极的影响。
全文共分为七章,每一章内容如下：
第一章绪论。本章主要阐述了研究的背景、目的与意义,并就国内外矿产资源可持续发展与矿产资源安全性的相关研究进行了系统的文献回顾,提出了本论文研究的主要内容、研究方法及主要贡献与创新点。
第二章矿产资源战略评价的理论基础。本章从自然资源与经济增长理论、矿产资源可持续开发利用理论、风险管理理论、系统理论、协同理论等角度出发,通过阐述矿产资源在经济增长、自然资源最优动态控制与最适耗竭以及国家宏观战略管理中的意义与作用机制,揭示了矿产资源战略评价体系建立的理论基础。
第三章矿产资源战略评价的内涵与模型。在阐述矿产资源与区域可持续发展战略的内在作用机制、矿产资源的可持续发展政策倾向和相应的目标和手段的基础上,构建了涵盖矿产资源时空演变评价系统、矿产资源保障风险评估系统和矿产资源环境影响评价系统的矿产资源战略评价模型,并介绍了矿产资源战略评价的特征和基本类型,通过运用系统论原理阐述了矿产资源战略评价的系统方法。
第四章我国煤炭资源时空演变综合评价。煤炭资源时空演变过程分为时间过程和空间过程,时间过程一般就是指国家或地区等区域内煤炭资源需求量的增长和变化轨迹；空间过程通常是指一个地区的煤炭资源的供应范围从地区到国家甚至到国外不断拓展的进程。许多国家的实践经验表明,只有时间和空间两个过程达到了协调统一,一个国家的煤炭资源发展才算是得到了平衡。煤炭时空演变过程是煤炭资源供应不断满足经济发展中煤炭资源消费总量增长和消费结构变化的轨迹。把煤炭资源消费需求的变化过程看作煤炭资源时空演变的时间过程,主要体现在消费量、增长速度和空间格局的变化过程。具体来说,主要从总量指标、均量指标、相对指标和增量指标来分析煤炭资源消费的变化过程。空间过程是一个区域在满足不断增长的煤炭消费需求,保障的空间从区域内向区域外范围的拓展进程,区域煤炭资源供应体系的建设从本土化走向开放,具体来说,可以采用运输量、运输距离、运输方式、运输方向、运输通道的保障能力等指标,从空间分布、类型和关系等方面描述不同尺度的相对指标和增量指标的变化分析煤炭消费的空间变化过程。中国煤炭资源的时间过程与空间过程总体上是协调发展的,但发展明显具有一定的阶段性：在开始阶段,煤炭消费增长量不大,相应平均运输距离也较小：此后有一段快速发展时期,时间过程与空间过程都得到迅速的发展；再往后,时间过程增长迅速,但是空间过程增长速度已经放缓,表明空间过程适应时间过程的能力有减弱的趋势。为了提高煤炭资源的时空协调性,建立我国煤炭资源时空协调的支撑体系,应加强以下三个方面建设：一是煤炭运输体系的发展、二是区域之间利益协调、三是煤炭价格市场形成机制。
第五章我国煤炭资源保障风险评估。矿产资源安全问题是关系国民经济发展和国家安全的重大战略问题,建立矿产资源保障风险评估指标体系,准确度量现阶段中国矿产资源保障风险的级别,是我国矿产资源战略评价的重要基础和主要内容。煤炭资源保障风险是在保障中国煤炭供给的过程中,实现保障目标的不确定性,以及未来的结果可能对中国现代化发展目标和进程的影响。本章对影响我国煤炭保障风险的因素进行分析,归纳出从资源到消费5方面的保障风险要素,在参考国内外能源安全指标体系构建理论和方法的基础上,运用层次分析法(AHP模型),分析煤炭保障风险机理,提出用资源指标、生产指标、运输指标、市场和消费指标描述和刻画影响煤炭安全保障风险的5大类型11项指标,初步建立了煤炭保障风险指标体系的基本框架；借鉴有关风险综合评价方法,构建了煤炭保障综合风险度表达方式以及各风险因子引发风险度的评价模型。运用煤炭保障风险综合评估指标体系,选取我国31个省(区、直辖市)作为分析对象,对其煤炭保障风险进行了评估,评价结果如下：全国煤炭资源保障综合风险平均水平为Ⅳ级,处于较低水平。风险程度最高的省(区)为西藏,综合风险水平达Ⅱ级：其次为天津、上海、江苏、浙江、湖北、广东、海南7个省(直辖市),综合风险水平为Ⅲ级；北京、河北、辽宁、吉林、安徽、福建、江西、山东、湖南、广西、甘肃、青海、宁夏共13个省(区、直辖市)的综合风险为Ⅳ级；山西、内蒙古、黑龙江、河南、重庆、四川、云南、贵州、陕西、新疆等10个省(区、直辖市)为中国煤炭资源保障风险最低的省份,综合风险水平为V级。该评估结果基本符合现状,印证了该评估体系的合理性。通过对国内煤炭资源的风险等级评估和对引起煤炭资源安全风险问题的诸要素的分析可以看出,虽然现阶段我国的煤炭资源风险等级并不太高,但是鉴于煤炭资源在我国能源生产特别是能源消费结构中的重要性,很有必要对引起我国国内煤炭资源安全风险问题的诸多因素采取相应的对策,以维护国内能源市场的稳定,为国内经济的健康发展提供良好的能源基础环境。
第六章我国煤炭资源环境影响评价。中国煤炭资源开发利用过程中,在产生了大量的社会物质财富的同时也对中国的环境质量带了重要的影响。在不断扩大的需求引导下,煤炭资源供给与消费的增加导致了大气污染、酸雨、地表水的有毒污染、废弃的放射性物质以及全球气候变化。这些问题所产生的约束己经成为制约煤炭资源可持续利用的决定性因素。就每单一种类的能源矿产消费的大气环境污染而言,煤炭消费量的增加是导致中国二氧化硫、二氧化碳排放和烟尘排放量增加的主要原因。但是,就对三种污染物排放量的影响程度而言,煤炭消费量增长对烟尘排放量的增长作用最大,对二氧化硫和二氧化碳排放量的增长作用次之；石油消费量的增长是导致中国二氧化硫、二氧化碳排放和烟尘排放量增加的原因,但不是主要原因。就石油消费量增长所导致的大气环境影响而言,其对二氧化硫排放量增长的作用最大,对二氧化碳排放量增长的作用次之,对烟尘排放量增长的作用最小；对天然气消费量的增长而言,其对中国二氧化硫、二氧化碳排放和烟尘排放量增加具有较好的消减作用,并且对烟尘排放量减少的作用较大,对二氧化硫和二氧化碳排放量减少的次之。随着中国工业化、城市化进程的加快,未来中国的大气环境污染将表现为向行业集中、城市集中和区域集中的趋势。调整能源结构,促进能源消费结构的“绿色化”,加强煤炭资源消费的健康风险识别,全面实施污染物综合消减,运用市场化手段,促进煤炭消费环境成本内部化,己经成为中国进一步改善环境质量与公众健康状况的现实途径。
第七章全文总结与展望。本章在对全文的研究内容和基本观点进行总结的基础上,对今后的研究进行了展望。
With the sustained and rapid economic development in China, the domestic consumption of mineral resources is also increasing rapidly. Especially in recent years, the contradiction of resource shortage restricting the economic development is becoming increasingly prominent. A serious shortage of oil, copper, aluminum, nickel, iron ore and other mineral resources has a direct impact on the sustainable development of China's economy. Therefore, in order to ensure the national economy to keep a healthy and sustainable developing, the status and future of China's mineral resources must be re-understood. However, only the technical and economic factors are considered in the traditional evaluation of mineral resources in China, and mainly reflects in tactical evaluation, which makes people to have a single-faceted pursuit of the value and economic benefits of mineral resources, the environment, the economy and social development are not closely linked with the resources. The loss which is brought about by the damage of resources development to the environment, and the economic structure, social benefits and other factors have not been taken into account, which has been unable to meet the requirements of sustainable economic and social development. Therefore, the strategic evaluation of mineral resources which reveal the internal interaction mechanism of mineral resources and regional sustainable development strategies is particularly important. Strategic evaluation of mineral resources is to analyze the scientific configuration issue from the macro-level of the mineral resources from the perspective of the national strategic management, the content of which includes the time-space coordination and sustainability of mineral resources, and the effectiveness and security of supply of mineral resources. The strategic positioning of mineral resources evaluation is, from the perspective of time-space coordinating, evaluating the supply security risk of mineral resources by selecting reasonable evaluation model and methods, and proposing risk control measures to build a sustainable supply and security system of mineral resources.
This paper establishes of a comprehensive mineral resource strategic evaluation model under the general guidelines for the sustainable economic and social development, applying of which in an empirical research on the time-space coordination process, supply security risks and environmental implications which is the most critical for the sustainable use of coal resources, and explore countermeasures to promote the sustainable use of mineral resources, which will have a positive impact for further improving the policy of national mineral resources development and utilization and promoting the safety of the nation's mineral resources and sustainable development.
The dissertation is divided into seven chapters, the main content of each chapter is as follows:
Chapter one is Introduction. This chapter covers the background, purpose and significance of the research, carried out a systematic review of literature and research on sustainable development and security of mineral resources at home and abroad, introducing the main content, the research methodology and the main contribution and innovation of the paper.
Chapter two is the Theoretical Basis of the Strategic Evaluation of Mineral Resources. From the perspective of the natural resources and economic growth theory, sustainable development and utilization theory of mineral resources, risk management theory, systems theory, collaborative theory, this chapter reveals a theoretical basis of establishing the mineral resources strategy evaluation system by elaborating the significance and role mechanism of mineral resources in the economic growth, the optimal dynamic control and optimal depletion of natural resources as well as the national macro-strategic management.
Chapter three is the Connotation and Model of Strategic Evaluation of Mineral Resources. Based on the inner mechanism of mineral resources and regional sustainable development strategies, policies tendency for sustainable development of mineral resources and the corresponding goals and means elaborated, this chapter constructs a strategic evaluation model of mineral resources which covers the evaluation system of the time-space evolution, protection risk assessment system, and environmental impact assessment system of mineral resources, and describes the characteristics and basic types of strategic evaluation of mineral resources, elaborating the system method of a strategic evaluation of mineral resources by using of systems theory principle.
Chapter four is Comprehensive Evaluation in Time-space Evolution of China's Coal Resources. Coal resources in time-space evolution are divided into the time course and spatial process. The time process generally refers to the growth in demand for coal resources in the area of the country or region, and change trajectory; spatial processes usually refers to the supply of coal resources in an area ranging from the regional to the process of the country and even to continue to expand abroad. Practical experience of many countries shows that only by the way that the two processes of time and space are Harmonious and unified can the development of coal resources in a country considered to have been balanced. The coal time-space evolution of the supply of coal resources is a trajectory which continues to meet the economic development of coal resources consumption growth and consumption structure change. It is mainly reflected in the change of consumption, growth rate and spatial pattern, if take the process as changes in consumer demand for coal resources in the process of spatial and temporal evolution of coal resources. Specifically, the total volume indicators are quantity indicators, relative indicators and incremental indicators to analyze the changes in the consumption of coal resources. Space region to meet the growing demand for coal consumption to protect the space from the area to the area outside the scope of the expansion process, the building of the regional coal resources supply system from localization to open Specifically, flow indicators, transportation changes in the distance, mode of transport, the transport direction, the transport channel support capabilities indicators from the spatial distribution, type and relationship relative indicators describe the different scales and incremental indicators analysis of the spatial variation of the process of coal consumption. In general the development of the time process and the spatial process of coal resources are coordinated, but it has obviously certain stage:at the beginning stage, there is a small amount of coal consumption growth and corresponding average transport distance. Later there have been a period of rapid development and the time process and spatial process have been developed rapidly; Later on, the time process is growing rapidly, but the growth of spatial process has slowed, show that there is a weakening trend of the ability for the spatial process to adapt to the time course. In order to improve the time-space coordination of coal resources, and establish of the time-space coordination support system of coal resources in China, three of the constructions should be strengthened. First is the development of the coal transport system, the second is the coordination of interests between the regions and the third is formation mechanism of the price in coal market.
Chapter five is the Risk Evaluation of Coal Security in China. As an important strategic issue connected with the nation's economy development and national security, the establishment of risk evaluation system for mineral resources security, which to picture the risk rating of China's mineral resource security now, has been the ultimate part for china's mineral resource strategic evaluation. And the definition of "Risk of Coal Security" means the uncertainty of satisfying the demand of China's economy and the possible consequential influence for China's economy development goal in the process of China's modernization. This chapter focuses on the five factor analysis that can influence the risk of China's coal security. Having drawn the lessons of the theories and methods for mineral security index system home and abroad, the author applies analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to analyze the risk of coal supply. The authors takes these five aspects, including mineral resource, manufacture, transportation, market and consumption and other eleven derivational indexes into having a elementary frame for the risk index system of coal security. Taking the reference of some specific methods of comprehensive risk assessment, the authors has established the interpretation on how to construct the comprehensive risk assessment of coal security and assessment model of these influential elements involved. Having applied the comprehensive index system for risk assessment of coal security, the author takes23provinces,5autonomous regions and4municipalities for the analyzing objects and then evaluates the risk of coal security of these objects mentioned above. The evaluations are as the follows, the average of national comprehensive risk of coal security can be rated as level IV, which means a fairly low level; the highest one is Tibet, which locates in level Ⅱ; Tianjin Municipality, Shanghai Municipality, Jiangsu Province, Zhejiang Province, Hubei Province, Guangdong Province and Hainan Province all locate in level Ⅲ, which is slightly better than level Ⅱ; Beijing Municipality, Hebei Province, Liaoning Province, Jilin Province, Anhui Province, Fujian Province, Jiangxi Province, Shandong Province, Hunan Province, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, Gansu Province, Qinghai Province and Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region all locate in Level Ⅳ; while Shanxi Province, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, Heilongjiang Province, Henan Province, Chongqing Municipality, Sichuan Province, Yunnan Province, Guizhou Province, Shanxi Province, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region all locate in Level V, which means of the lowest risk of coal security. The assessment mentioned above demonstrates a right picture for the current situation and justifies this assessment system. Through the process of the analysis of the associated elements that can influence the risk of China's coal security, there are still something we should pay much attention to. That's to say, though the comprehensive risk of the national coal security is still low, however, owing to the coal plays an rather important role in the whole energy resources supply, it's necessary to take measure for the consequential problems arising from the risk of national coal security so that the domestic energy resources can be stabilized and an solid foundation for the prosperous development of the whole national economy can be built.
Chapter six is the Environmental Impact Assessment of China's Coal Resources. In the process of development and utilization of coal resources in China, although a lot of material wealth of society generated, while the environmental quality of China is also implicated. Under the guidance of the ever-expanding demand, the supply of coal resources and the increase in consumption has led to air pollution, acid rain, toxic contamination of surface water, abandoned radioactive substances as well as global climate change. Constraints caused by these problems has become a decisive factor restricting the sustainable use of coal resources. For atmospheric pollution of every single type of energy and mineral consumption, the increase in coal consumption is the main reason of causing the increase in China's sulfur dioxide, carbon dioxide emissions and soot emissions. However, for the extent of the impact on the emissions of the three pollutants, there is a most biggest impact of coal consumption growth on the soot emissions growth, followed by the growth of sulfur dioxide and carbon dioxide emissions. The growth of oil consumption is one of the reasons for the increase of sulfur dioxide, carbon dioxide and soot emissions in China, but not the main reason. For atmospheric environmental impact caused by the growth in oil consumption, there is a most biggest impact of the oil consumption on the sulfur dioxide emissions growth, followed by growth of carbon dioxide emissions, and the impact on the growth of soot emissions is the smallest. For growth of natural gas consumption, there is a subtractive effect for sulfur dioxide, carbon dioxide emissions and soot emissions in China, and the effect is most significant in reducing soot emissions, followed by sulfur dioxide and carbon dioxide emissions. With the acceleration of industrialization and urbanization, atmospheric pollution in China has a trend of industry, urban and regional concentration. Adjust the energy structure, promote "green" energy consumption structure, strengthen the recognition of the health risks of the consumption in coal resources, take a full implementation of the pollutant abatement, and use of market-oriented measures to promote the internalization of environmental costs in coal consumption, has become a practical approach to further improve the environment quality and public health conditions to China.
Chapter seven is the Summary and Outlook. This chapter looks into the future of the research based on the summary of the contents and basic points of the full text.
本文在经济社会可持续发展的总体指导方针下,建立了一个综合性的矿产资源战略评价模型,并运用这一模型,对中国煤炭资源可持续利用中最为关键的时空协调过程、供给保障风险和环境影响问题进行了实证研究,探讨了促进矿产资源可持续利用的对策,这将对进一步完善国家矿产资源开发利用的各项政策、促进国家矿产资源安全与可持续发展产生积极的影响。
全文共分为七章,每一章内容如下：
第一章绪论。本章主要阐述了研究的背景、目的与意义,并就国内外矿产资源可持续发展与矿产资源安全性的相关研究进行了系统的文献回顾,提出了本论文研究的主要内容、研究方法及主要贡献与创新点。
第二章矿产资源战略评价的理论基础。本章从自然资源与经济增长理论、矿产资源可持续开发利用理论、风险管理理论、系统理论、协同理论等角度出发,通过阐述矿产资源在经济增长、自然资源最优动态控制与最适耗竭以及国家宏观战略管理中的意义与作用机制,揭示了矿产资源战略评价体系建立的理论基础。
第三章矿产资源战略评价的内涵与模型。在阐述矿产资源与区域可持续发展战略的内在作用机制、矿产资源的可持续发展政策倾向和相应的目标和手段的基础上,构建了涵盖矿产资源时空演变评价系统、矿产资源保障风险评估系统和矿产资源环境影响评价系统的矿产资源战略评价模型,并介绍了矿产资源战略评价的特征和基本类型,通过运用系统论原理阐述了矿产资源战略评价的系统方法。
第四章我国煤炭资源时空演变综合评价。煤炭资源时空演变过程分为时间过程和空间过程,时间过程一般就是指国家或地区等区域内煤炭资源需求量的增长和变化轨迹；空间过程通常是指一个地区的煤炭资源的供应范围从地区到国家甚至到国外不断拓展的进程。许多国家的实践经验表明,只有时间和空间两个过程达到了协调统一,一个国家的煤炭资源发展才算是得到了平衡。煤炭时空演变过程是煤炭资源供应不断满足经济发展中煤炭资源消费总量增长和消费结构变化的轨迹。把煤炭资源消费需求的变化过程看作煤炭资源时空演变的时间过程,主要体现在消费量、增长速度和空间格局的变化过程。具体来说,主要从总量指标、均量指标、相对指标和增量指标来分析煤炭资源消费的变化过程。空间过程是一个区域在满足不断增长的煤炭消费需求,保障的空间从区域内向区域外范围的拓展进程,区域煤炭资源供应体系的建设从本土化走向开放,具体来说,可以采用运输量、运输距离、运输方式、运输方向、运输通道的保障能力等指标,从空间分布、类型和关系等方面描述不同尺度的相对指标和增量指标的变化分析煤炭消费的空间变化过程。中国煤炭资源的时间过程与空间过程总体上是协调发展的,但发展明显具有一定的阶段性：在开始阶段,煤炭消费增长量不大,相应平均运输距离也较小：此后有一段快速发展时期,时间过程与空间过程都得到迅速的发展；再往后,时间过程增长迅速,但是空间过程增长速度已经放缓,表明空间过程适应时间过程的能力有减弱的趋势。为了提高煤炭资源的时空协调性,建立我国煤炭资源时空协调的支撑体系,应加强以下三个方面建设：一是煤炭运输体系的发展、二是区域之间利益协调、三是煤炭价格市场形成机制。
第五章我国煤炭资源保障风险评估。矿产资源安全问题是关系国民经济发展和国家安全的重大战略问题,建立矿产资源保障风险评估指标体系,准确度量现阶段中国矿产资源保障风险的级别,是我国矿产资源战略评价的重要基础和主要内容。煤炭资源保障风险是在保障中国煤炭供给的过程中,实现保障目标的不确定性,以及未来的结果可能对中国现代化发展目标和进程的影响。本章对影响我国煤炭保障风险的因素进行分析,归纳出从资源到消费5方面的保障风险要素,在参考国内外能源安全指标体系构建理论和方法的基础上,运用层次分析法(AHP模型),分析煤炭保障风险机理,提出用资源指标、生产指标、运输指标、市场和消费指标描述和刻画影响煤炭安全保障风险的5大类型11项指标,初步建立了煤炭保障风险指标体系的基本框架；借鉴有关风险综合评价方法,构建了煤炭保障综合风险度表达方式以及各风险因子引发风险度的评价模型。运用煤炭保障风险综合评估指标体系,选取我国31个省(区、直辖市)作为分析对象,对其煤炭保障风险进行了评估,评价结果如下：全国煤炭资源保障综合风险平均水平为Ⅳ级,处于较低水平。风险程度最高的省(区)为西藏,综合风险水平达Ⅱ级：其次为天津、上海、江苏、浙江、湖北、广东、海南7个省(直辖市),综合风险水平为Ⅲ级；北京、河北、辽宁、吉林、安徽、福建、江西、山东、湖南、广西、甘肃、青海、宁夏共13个省(区、直辖市)的综合风险为Ⅳ级；山西、内蒙古、黑龙江、河南、重庆、四川、云南、贵州、陕西、新疆等10个省(区、直辖市)为中国煤炭资源保障风险最低的省份,综合风险水平为V级。该评估结果基本符合现状,印证了该评估体系的合理性。通过对国内煤炭资源的风险等级评估和对引起煤炭资源安全风险问题的诸要素的分析可以看出,虽然现阶段我国的煤炭资源风险等级并不太高,但是鉴于煤炭资源在我国能源生产特别是能源消费结构中的重要性,很有必要对引起我国国内煤炭资源安全风险问题的诸多因素采取相应的对策,以维护国内能源市场的稳定,为国内经济的健康发展提供良好的能源基础环境。
第六章我国煤炭资源环境影响评价。中国煤炭资源开发利用过程中,在产生了大量的社会物质财富的同时也对中国的环境质量带了重要的影响。在不断扩大的需求引导下,煤炭资源供给与消费的增加导致了大气污染、酸雨、地表水的有毒污染、废弃的放射性物质以及全球气候变化。这些问题所产生的约束己经成为制约煤炭资源可持续利用的决定性因素。就每单一种类的能源矿产消费的大气环境污染而言,煤炭消费量的增加是导致中国二氧化硫、二氧化碳排放和烟尘排放量增加的主要原因。但是,就对三种污染物排放量的影响程度而言,煤炭消费量增长对烟尘排放量的增长作用最大,对二氧化硫和二氧化碳排放量的增长作用次之；石油消费量的增长是导致中国二氧化硫、二氧化碳排放和烟尘排放量增加的原因,但不是主要原因。就石油消费量增长所导致的大气环境影响而言,其对二氧化硫排放量增长的作用最大,对二氧化碳排放量增长的作用次之,对烟尘排放量增长的作用最小；对天然气消费量的增长而言,其对中国二氧化硫、二氧化碳排放和烟尘排放量增加具有较好的消减作用,并且对烟尘排放量减少的作用较大,对二氧化硫和二氧化碳排放量减少的次之。随着中国工业化、城市化进程的加快,未来中国的大气环境污染将表现为向行业集中、城市集中和区域集中的趋势。调整能源结构,促进能源消费结构的“绿色化”,加强煤炭资源消费的健康风险识别,全面实施污染物综合消减,运用市场化手段,促进煤炭消费环境成本内部化,己经成为中国进一步改善环境质量与公众健康状况的现实途径。
第七章全文总结与展望。本章在对全文的研究内容和基本观点进行总结的基础上,对今后的研究进行了展望。
With the sustained and rapid economic development in China, the domestic consumption of mineral resources is also increasing rapidly. Especially in recent years, the contradiction of resource shortage restricting the economic development is becoming increasingly prominent. A serious shortage of oil, copper, aluminum, nickel, iron ore and other mineral resources has a direct impact on the sustainable development of China's economy. Therefore, in order to ensure the national economy to keep a healthy and sustainable developing, the status and future of China's mineral resources must be re-understood. However, only the technical and economic factors are considered in the traditional evaluation of mineral resources in China, and mainly reflects in tactical evaluation, which makes people to have a single-faceted pursuit of the value and economic benefits of mineral resources, the environment, the economy and social development are not closely linked with the resources. The loss which is brought about by the damage of resources development to the environment, and the economic structure, social benefits and other factors have not been taken into account, which has been unable to meet the requirements of sustainable economic and social development. Therefore, the strategic evaluation of mineral resources which reveal the internal interaction mechanism of mineral resources and regional sustainable development strategies is particularly important. Strategic evaluation of mineral resources is to analyze the scientific configuration issue from the macro-level of the mineral resources from the perspective of the national strategic management, the content of which includes the time-space coordination and sustainability of mineral resources, and the effectiveness and security of supply of mineral resources. The strategic positioning of mineral resources evaluation is, from the perspective of time-space coordinating, evaluating the supply security risk of mineral resources by selecting reasonable evaluation model and methods, and proposing risk control measures to build a sustainable supply and security system of mineral resources.
This paper establishes of a comprehensive mineral resource strategic evaluation model under the general guidelines for the sustainable economic and social development, applying of which in an empirical research on the time-space coordination process, supply security risks and environmental implications which is the most critical for the sustainable use of coal resources, and explore countermeasures to promote the sustainable use of mineral resources, which will have a positive impact for further improving the policy of national mineral resources development and utilization and promoting the safety of the nation's mineral resources and sustainable development.
The dissertation is divided into seven chapters, the main content of each chapter is as follows:
Chapter one is Introduction. This chapter covers the background, purpose and significance of the research, carried out a systematic review of literature and research on sustainable development and security of mineral resources at home and abroad, introducing the main content, the research methodology and the main contribution and innovation of the paper.
Chapter two is the Theoretical Basis of the Strategic Evaluation of Mineral Resources. From the perspective of the natural resources and economic growth theory, sustainable development and utilization theory of mineral resources, risk management theory, systems theory, collaborative theory, this chapter reveals a theoretical basis of establishing the mineral resources strategy evaluation system by elaborating the significance and role mechanism of mineral resources in the economic growth, the optimal dynamic control and optimal depletion of natural resources as well as the national macro-strategic management.
Chapter three is the Connotation and Model of Strategic Evaluation of Mineral Resources. Based on the inner mechanism of mineral resources and regional sustainable development strategies, policies tendency for sustainable development of mineral resources and the corresponding goals and means elaborated, this chapter constructs a strategic evaluation model of mineral resources which covers the evaluation system of the time-space evolution, protection risk assessment system, and environmental impact assessment system of mineral resources, and describes the characteristics and basic types of strategic evaluation of mineral resources, elaborating the system method of a strategic evaluation of mineral resources by using of systems theory principle.
Chapter four is Comprehensive Evaluation in Time-space Evolution of China's Coal Resources. Coal resources in time-space evolution are divided into the time course and spatial process. The time process generally refers to the growth in demand for coal resources in the area of the country or region, and change trajectory; spatial processes usually refers to the supply of coal resources in an area ranging from the regional to the process of the country and even to continue to expand abroad. Practical experience of many countries shows that only by the way that the two processes of time and space are Harmonious and unified can the development of coal resources in a country considered to have been balanced. The coal time-space evolution of the supply of coal resources is a trajectory which continues to meet the economic development of coal resources consumption growth and consumption structure change. It is mainly reflected in the change of consumption, growth rate and spatial pattern, if take the process as changes in consumer demand for coal resources in the process of spatial and temporal evolution of coal resources. Specifically, the total volume indicators are quantity indicators, relative indicators and incremental indicators to analyze the changes in the consumption of coal resources. Space region to meet the growing demand for coal consumption to protect the space from the area to the area outside the scope of the expansion process, the building of the regional coal resources supply system from localization to open Specifically, flow indicators, transportation changes in the distance, mode of transport, the transport direction, the transport channel support capabilities indicators from the spatial distribution, type and relationship relative indicators describe the different scales and incremental indicators analysis of the spatial variation of the process of coal consumption. In general the development of the time process and the spatial process of coal resources are coordinated, but it has obviously certain stage:at the beginning stage, there is a small amount of coal consumption growth and corresponding average transport distance. Later there have been a period of rapid development and the time process and spatial process have been developed rapidly; Later on, the time process is growing rapidly, but the growth of spatial process has slowed, show that there is a weakening trend of the ability for the spatial process to adapt to the time course. In order to improve the time-space coordination of coal resources, and establish of the time-space coordination support system of coal resources in China, three of the constructions should be strengthened. First is the development of the coal transport system, the second is the coordination of interests between the regions and the third is formation mechanism of the price in coal market.
Chapter five is the Risk Evaluation of Coal Security in China. As an important strategic issue connected with the nation's economy development and national security, the establishment of risk evaluation system for mineral resources security, which to picture the risk rating of China's mineral resource security now, has been the ultimate part for china's mineral resource strategic evaluation. And the definition of "Risk of Coal Security" means the uncertainty of satisfying the demand of China's economy and the possible consequential influence for China's economy development goal in the process of China's modernization. This chapter focuses on the five factor analysis that can influence the risk of China's coal security. Having drawn the lessons of the theories and methods for mineral security index system home and abroad, the author applies analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to analyze the risk of coal supply. The authors takes these five aspects, including mineral resource, manufacture, transportation, market and consumption and other eleven derivational indexes into having a elementary frame for the risk index system of coal security. Taking the reference of some specific methods of comprehensive risk assessment, the authors has established the interpretation on how to construct the comprehensive risk assessment of coal security and assessment model of these influential elements involved. Having applied the comprehensive index system for risk assessment of coal security, the author takes23provinces,5autonomous regions and4municipalities for the analyzing objects and then evaluates the risk of coal security of these objects mentioned above. The evaluations are as the follows, the average of national comprehensive risk of coal security can be rated as level IV, which means a fairly low level; the highest one is Tibet, which locates in level Ⅱ; Tianjin Municipality, Shanghai Municipality, Jiangsu Province, Zhejiang Province, Hubei Province, Guangdong Province and Hainan Province all locate in level Ⅲ, which is slightly better than level Ⅱ; Beijing Municipality, Hebei Province, Liaoning Province, Jilin Province, Anhui Province, Fujian Province, Jiangxi Province, Shandong Province, Hunan Province, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, Gansu Province, Qinghai Province and Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region all locate in Level Ⅳ; while Shanxi Province, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, Heilongjiang Province, Henan Province, Chongqing Municipality, Sichuan Province, Yunnan Province, Guizhou Province, Shanxi Province, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region all locate in Level V, which means of the lowest risk of coal security. The assessment mentioned above demonstrates a right picture for the current situation and justifies this assessment system. Through the process of the analysis of the associated elements that can influence the risk of China's coal security, there are still something we should pay much attention to. That's to say, though the comprehensive risk of the national coal security is still low, however, owing to the coal plays an rather important role in the whole energy resources supply, it's necessary to take measure for the consequential problems arising from the risk of national coal security so that the domestic energy resources can be stabilized and an solid foundation for the prosperous development of the whole national economy can be built.
Chapter six is the Environmental Impact Assessment of China's Coal Resources. In the process of development and utilization of coal resources in China, although a lot of material wealth of society generated, while the environmental quality of China is also implicated. Under the guidance of the ever-expanding demand, the supply of coal resources and the increase in consumption has led to air pollution, acid rain, toxic contamination of surface water, abandoned radioactive substances as well as global climate change. Constraints caused by these problems has become a decisive factor restricting the sustainable use of coal resources. For atmospheric pollution of every single type of energy and mineral consumption, the increase in coal consumption is the main reason of causing the increase in China's sulfur dioxide, carbon dioxide emissions and soot emissions. However, for the extent of the impact on the emissions of the three pollutants, there is a most biggest impact of coal consumption growth on the soot emissions growth, followed by the growth of sulfur dioxide and carbon dioxide emissions. The growth of oil consumption is one of the reasons for the increase of sulfur dioxide, carbon dioxide and soot emissions in China, but not the main reason. For atmospheric environmental impact caused by the growth in oil consumption, there is a most biggest impact of the oil consumption on the sulfur dioxide emissions growth, followed by growth of carbon dioxide emissions, and the impact on the growth of soot emissions is the smallest. For growth of natural gas consumption, there is a subtractive effect for sulfur dioxide, carbon dioxide emissions and soot emissions in China, and the effect is most significant in reducing soot emissions, followed by sulfur dioxide and carbon dioxide emissions. With the acceleration of industrialization and urbanization, atmospheric pollution in China has a trend of industry, urban and regional concentration. Adjust the energy structure, promote "green" energy consumption structure, strengthen the recognition of the health risks of the consumption in coal resources, take a full implementation of the pollutant abatement, and use of market-oriented measures to promote the internalization of environmental costs in coal consumption, has become a practical approach to further improve the environment quality and public health conditions to China.
Chapter seven is the Summary and Outlook. This chapter looks into the future of the research based on the summary of the contents and basic points of the full text.
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