贵港市内河货运船舶运力近中期发展规划研究
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摘要
珠江流经云南、贵州、广西、广东、湖南、江西等六省区,流域包括香港和澳门特别行政区,珠江流域内常年通航1.2万公里,内河航运量仅次于长江,全流域水运量占全国内河水运量的20%。其巨大的运能资源、重要的社会地位、水运所能发挥的巨大作用是其他运输方式无法替代的。
贵港市位于广西东南部,珠江流域中游,是一座新兴的港口城市。它东南毗邻中国经济发达地区广东省及香港、澳门地区,西部背靠自然资源丰富的中国西部地区,是中国连接东南亚国家的重要枢纽,区位优势十分明显。2008年贵港市政府提出“构筑珠三角连接北部湾的大通道,打造内河大港口,发展临江大工业,建设区域性新兴大城市”战略目标。目前,贵港市水运业处于高速发展阶段,经济发展对水运需求旺盛,船舶运输具备良好的内外部发展环境。用科学的发展观,审时度势,把握机遇,制定科学的、具有前瞻性的、又切实可行的船舶运力发展规划,以建设规模强大、结构合理、运营高效的船舶运力体系,引导船舶运输向规范化、效益化方向可持续发展,最大限度发挥水运优势,对贵港市加快全面建设小康社会和水运强市战略的实施,促进社会经济又好又快发展,具有重要的战略意义。
本论文首先对贵港市港口、航道、水运量、船舶运力及运输组织现状进行了深入的分析,指出了船舶运力存在的问题。在分析贵港市水路货运量发展环境的基础上,运用定性分析和定量计算相结合的方法对贵港市的水路货运量进行了预测。根据贵港市水路货运量预测结果,结合贵港市现有船舶运力结构、运输组织发展趋势及船舶标准化要求,制定了贵港市近中期内河货运船舶运输组织和运力规划并提出了贵港市内河运力发展技术经济政策建议。
The Pearl River flows through Yunnan, Guizhou, Guangxi, Guangdong, Hunan, Jiangxi provinces, and the river basin includs Hong Kong and the Macao Special Administrative Region. The Pearl River is navigable 12,000 kilometers all year round.
The waterway freight volume of the Pearl River accounts for 20% of the national inland river water transportation capacity, which is only inferior to the Yangtze River. Its huge transport capacity, the important social position and the tremendous role played in water transportation is unable to be substituted by any other transportation.
Guigang is located in the southeast of Guangxi, middle reaches of the Pearl River Basin, and is a new emerging city. The southeast of Guigang adjoins to Hong Kong and Macao Special Administrative Region and Guangdong Province which is one of the economy core areas in China. The west of Guigang is adjacent Chinese western area where is abundant in natural resources, Guigang is located at the key position where connects China to the Southeast Asian country, so the geographical superiority is absolutely obvious. In the year 2008, the Guigang city government proposed the strategic target that to construct big channel which connect Pearl River Delta to Beibu Gulf, build inland river big harbor, develop the big riparian industry and construct regional emerging big city.
At present, the Guigang water transportation industry is at the high speed development phase, and the economic development makes exuberant demands for the water transportation. The water transportation is in a good internal and external environment for development. Under the guidance of science development concept, Guigang should size up the situation, seize opportunities, and establish a scientific, forward-looking, and practical ship capacity development plan to build a system of ship capacity which has a strong scale, reasonable structure and efficient operations, and to guide shipping to the direction of standardization and effectiveness sustainable, and to maximize the advantages of water transportation. These have vital strategic sense to speed up the comprehensive construction of affluent society and implement the strategy of shipping strengthening the city and in the promotion of sound and rapid economic growth.
Firstly, the paper has carried on thoroughly analysis of port, navigation channel, waterway freight volume, freight ship capacity and ship transportation organizations of Guigang., and then points out freight ship capacity problems of Guigang. In the basic of analyzing development environment of waterway freight volume, the qualitative analysis and the quantitative evaluation unified has carried on to make a forecast of waterway freight volume of Guigang. According to the forecast of waterway freight volume of Guigang, and considering the existing ship capacity structure of Guigang , the development trends of ship transporation organization and ship standardization requirements, this paper makes plan for the inland river freight ship transportation organization and the capacity of Guigang on the short and medium term, and puts forward the technical and economic policy proposal to Guigang's inland river freight ship capacity.
贵港市位于广西东南部,珠江流域中游,是一座新兴的港口城市。它东南毗邻中国经济发达地区广东省及香港、澳门地区,西部背靠自然资源丰富的中国西部地区,是中国连接东南亚国家的重要枢纽,区位优势十分明显。2008年贵港市政府提出“构筑珠三角连接北部湾的大通道,打造内河大港口,发展临江大工业,建设区域性新兴大城市”战略目标。目前,贵港市水运业处于高速发展阶段,经济发展对水运需求旺盛,船舶运输具备良好的内外部发展环境。用科学的发展观,审时度势,把握机遇,制定科学的、具有前瞻性的、又切实可行的船舶运力发展规划,以建设规模强大、结构合理、运营高效的船舶运力体系,引导船舶运输向规范化、效益化方向可持续发展,最大限度发挥水运优势,对贵港市加快全面建设小康社会和水运强市战略的实施,促进社会经济又好又快发展,具有重要的战略意义。
本论文首先对贵港市港口、航道、水运量、船舶运力及运输组织现状进行了深入的分析,指出了船舶运力存在的问题。在分析贵港市水路货运量发展环境的基础上,运用定性分析和定量计算相结合的方法对贵港市的水路货运量进行了预测。根据贵港市水路货运量预测结果,结合贵港市现有船舶运力结构、运输组织发展趋势及船舶标准化要求,制定了贵港市近中期内河货运船舶运输组织和运力规划并提出了贵港市内河运力发展技术经济政策建议。
The Pearl River flows through Yunnan, Guizhou, Guangxi, Guangdong, Hunan, Jiangxi provinces, and the river basin includs Hong Kong and the Macao Special Administrative Region. The Pearl River is navigable 12,000 kilometers all year round.
The waterway freight volume of the Pearl River accounts for 20% of the national inland river water transportation capacity, which is only inferior to the Yangtze River. Its huge transport capacity, the important social position and the tremendous role played in water transportation is unable to be substituted by any other transportation.
Guigang is located in the southeast of Guangxi, middle reaches of the Pearl River Basin, and is a new emerging city. The southeast of Guigang adjoins to Hong Kong and Macao Special Administrative Region and Guangdong Province which is one of the economy core areas in China. The west of Guigang is adjacent Chinese western area where is abundant in natural resources, Guigang is located at the key position where connects China to the Southeast Asian country, so the geographical superiority is absolutely obvious. In the year 2008, the Guigang city government proposed the strategic target that to construct big channel which connect Pearl River Delta to Beibu Gulf, build inland river big harbor, develop the big riparian industry and construct regional emerging big city.
At present, the Guigang water transportation industry is at the high speed development phase, and the economic development makes exuberant demands for the water transportation. The water transportation is in a good internal and external environment for development. Under the guidance of science development concept, Guigang should size up the situation, seize opportunities, and establish a scientific, forward-looking, and practical ship capacity development plan to build a system of ship capacity which has a strong scale, reasonable structure and efficient operations, and to guide shipping to the direction of standardization and effectiveness sustainable, and to maximize the advantages of water transportation. These have vital strategic sense to speed up the comprehensive construction of affluent society and implement the strategy of shipping strengthening the city and in the promotion of sound and rapid economic growth.
Firstly, the paper has carried on thoroughly analysis of port, navigation channel, waterway freight volume, freight ship capacity and ship transportation organizations of Guigang., and then points out freight ship capacity problems of Guigang. In the basic of analyzing development environment of waterway freight volume, the qualitative analysis and the quantitative evaluation unified has carried on to make a forecast of waterway freight volume of Guigang. According to the forecast of waterway freight volume of Guigang, and considering the existing ship capacity structure of Guigang , the development trends of ship transporation organization and ship standardization requirements, this paper makes plan for the inland river freight ship transportation organization and the capacity of Guigang on the short and medium term, and puts forward the technical and economic policy proposal to Guigang's inland river freight ship capacity.
引文
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[3]张矢宇.内河运输供给分析的理论、方法与实证研究[D]:[博士学位论文].武汉:武汉理工大学,2004
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[5]蔡涛,王海霞.我国远洋散货船型经济论证.水运工程,2006(10)
[6]班同荣.广西煤炭来源及运输分析[A].广西电机工程学会第九届青年学术论坛论文集[C],2006
[7]“内河运输政策”课题组.内河运输政策:[研究报告].武汉:武汉理工大学,2001
[8]王明志.运输供给与运输需要平衡论.北京:人民交通出版社,1996
[9]杨大鸣.内河航运规划体系的研究与应用:[博士学位论文].武汉:武汉理工大学,2003
[10]杨大鸣,王呈方,张培林.内河航运规划体系及其关系研究[J].交通科技,2003(03)
[11]刘建新.我国沿海运力运量平衡方法探讨[D]:[硕士学位论文].大连:大连海事大学2000
[12]张明春,张婕妹.基于三次指数平滑法的青岛港集装箱吞吐量预测.集装箱化,2006(7):37-39
[13]隽志才.公路运输技术经济学.北京:人民交通出版社.1998.6
[14]刘银芬.内河航道融资模式研究:[硕士学位论文].武汉:武汉理工大学,2006
[15]邓聚龙.灰色论基础[M].武汉:华中理工大学出版社,2002
[16]万德香.长江散货运输需求预测研究:[硕士学位论文].武汉:武汉理工大学,2008
[17]刘明维,王多银,周世良。港口货物吞吐量预测方法探讨.水运工程,2005(03):53-56
[18]朱超.组合预测在港口吞吐量预测中的应用研究.港工技术,2006(09):10-12
[19]胡美丽,陈煜量.港口集装箱吞吐量预测模型的选择.水运科学研究.2007(1)
[20]方芳.船舶营运管理.武汉:武汉理工大学出版社,2003
[21]王学峰.基于枢纽港的大型集装箱船营运经济性研究.:[博士学位论文].上海:上海交通大学,2006
[22]蔡涛,王海霞.我国远洋散货船型经济论证.水运工程,2006(10):232-236
[23]王彩当.内河船型技术经济论证.北京:人民交通出版社,1996
[24]刘涛,鲁晓丽,周万枝.渤海湾集装箱客滚船型经济性分析.大连海事大学学报,2007(06)
[25]张瑞瑞,谢云平,包国治.250TEU江海直达敞口集装箱船船型经济论证分析[J].江苏科技大学学报(自然科学版),2006(5):1-3
[26]贵港市“港口强市”战略研究课题组:[研究报告].贵港:中共贵港市政策研究室,贵港市交通局,2007
[27]林桦.内河运力调控的政策及措施研究[J].交通企业管理,2002(04)
[28]雷智荣.内河运力预测与调控研究[D]:[硕士论文].武汉:武汉理工大学,2006
[29]张涛.西部内河航运发展研究:[硕士论文].武汉:武汉理工大学,2003
[30]“珠江航运结构调整意见”课题组.珠江航运结构调整意见:[研究报告].广州:交通部珠江航务管理局,2005
[31]李柯,雷智荣.内河船舶需要量预测方法研究.武汉理工大学学报(交通科学与工程版),2006(6):1105-1108
[32]王学锋.基于枢纽港的大型集装箱船营运经济性研究[D]:[博士学位论文].上海:上海交通大学,2007
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[34]苏胜方,郭庆祝,郭远扬.小型运输船船型经济性论证分析[J].西部交通科技,2007(2):68-71
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