中国进口液化天然气可持续发展战略
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摘要
由于管输天然气的诸多限制,液化天然气的贸易扮演越来越重要的角色。美国能源署（EIA）2010年预测，中国天然气需求到2035年将占到全球天然气需求的五分之一，天然气消费量中的进口份额将达到43%，其中LNG将起到至关重要的作用。
本文基于地缘经济学思想，按照界定经济环境，设定行为假设，确定制度安排，评估比较，选择均衡结果的总体分析框架。综合运用文献分析法、统计分析法、数理逻辑和形式逻辑分析法，分析了中国LNG产业链的规模和技术水平、LNG贸易安全性和供给持续性，并设计了LNG地缘经济可持续发展战略，为中国能源结构规划及对外能源战略提供支持。本文主要得到以下研究成果。
（1）从中国能源安全性评价、中国进口LNG的安全性和可持续性三方面分析了中国LNG贸易的地缘经济特征。建立了动态调整的中国进口LNG来源国的风险评估的GPER模型，并用此模型选取2010年统计数据对中国主要LNG进口来源国国家的地缘政治风险、经济风险和资源潜力风险以及综合风险进行了评估分析。
（2）设计了中国进口LNG的地缘经济可持续发展的战略：基于全球能源地缘格局的均衡及区域国家利益的均衡选择的建立亚太LNG区域贸易同盟的策略；基于国家长、短期能源供应及风险、收益均衡选择的建立俄罗斯、伊朗后备能源基地的策略；基于中国能源结构的均衡选择的增加中国LNG进口比例并争取LNG定价权和未来参与LNG价格市场竞争的价格策略。
（3）为更好地实现中国进口LNG的可持续发展战略，构建了国内天然气市场结构和定价机制策略；和基于完全信息和不完全信息设计了中国和LNG进口来源国贸易双方长期合同订单的价格博弈策略并进行了数理模型的推导和模拟，并得出了最优谈判价格均衡解。
With many restrictions of import natural gas pipeline and high price of oil,Liquefied Natural Gas（LNG）trade is growing rapidly that more regions andcountries target LNG to import or make it as reserves. China’s natural gas demand isgrowing very fast, accounting for more than one-fifth of the increase in global gasdemand to2035，around43%imports of China（EIA）. LNG plays a critical role.
Based on geo-economic theory, this paper was built within the framework ofeconomic analysis, by defining the economic environment, setting the behaviorassumptions, arranging the economic system, comparing with evaluations, andchoosing equilibrium results. The following is main results of research.
（1）The paper analyzed China’s LNG industry chain in the scale and technicallevel, LNG trade security and supply continuity, and then designed LNGgeo-economic strategy. A country risk rating system was established in the paper.Related data and information in the year of2010was used to assess the country’spolitical risk, economic risk of China’s major LNG importing countries. Besides,resource potential of world major LNG exporting countries was analized on storagecapacity, production, consumption and proven reserves.
（2）On basis of China's LNG industry, including the evaluation of China'senergy security, LNG energy security and sustainability, the three geo-economiccharacteristics of energy, the geo-economic sustainable developing strategy forChina's LNG importing was designed: selecting the establishment of Asia-PacificLNG regional trade alliance strategy based on the global energy geopolitical patternof balanced and regional national interests of balance; establishing Russia, Iranback-up energy base strategy based on the national long and short-term energy supplyand risk, profit equilibrium selection; increasing the proportion of LNG imports inChina and striving for LNG pricing and future participate in the strategic LNG pricecompetition in the market based on China's energy structure balance.
（3）It designed a market structure and mechanism model for the domestic natural gas market to promote the sustainable developmental strategy on importingLNG of China. And it also used bargaining model to simulate the process ofnegotiations for China and LNG supply country bilateral gas trade, which quotedbased on Bias equilibrium solution.
本文基于地缘经济学思想，按照界定经济环境，设定行为假设，确定制度安排，评估比较，选择均衡结果的总体分析框架。综合运用文献分析法、统计分析法、数理逻辑和形式逻辑分析法，分析了中国LNG产业链的规模和技术水平、LNG贸易安全性和供给持续性，并设计了LNG地缘经济可持续发展战略，为中国能源结构规划及对外能源战略提供支持。本文主要得到以下研究成果。
（1）从中国能源安全性评价、中国进口LNG的安全性和可持续性三方面分析了中国LNG贸易的地缘经济特征。建立了动态调整的中国进口LNG来源国的风险评估的GPER模型，并用此模型选取2010年统计数据对中国主要LNG进口来源国国家的地缘政治风险、经济风险和资源潜力风险以及综合风险进行了评估分析。
（2）设计了中国进口LNG的地缘经济可持续发展的战略：基于全球能源地缘格局的均衡及区域国家利益的均衡选择的建立亚太LNG区域贸易同盟的策略；基于国家长、短期能源供应及风险、收益均衡选择的建立俄罗斯、伊朗后备能源基地的策略；基于中国能源结构的均衡选择的增加中国LNG进口比例并争取LNG定价权和未来参与LNG价格市场竞争的价格策略。
（3）为更好地实现中国进口LNG的可持续发展战略，构建了国内天然气市场结构和定价机制策略；和基于完全信息和不完全信息设计了中国和LNG进口来源国贸易双方长期合同订单的价格博弈策略并进行了数理模型的推导和模拟，并得出了最优谈判价格均衡解。
With many restrictions of import natural gas pipeline and high price of oil,Liquefied Natural Gas（LNG）trade is growing rapidly that more regions andcountries target LNG to import or make it as reserves. China’s natural gas demand isgrowing very fast, accounting for more than one-fifth of the increase in global gasdemand to2035，around43%imports of China（EIA）. LNG plays a critical role.
Based on geo-economic theory, this paper was built within the framework ofeconomic analysis, by defining the economic environment, setting the behaviorassumptions, arranging the economic system, comparing with evaluations, andchoosing equilibrium results. The following is main results of research.
（1）The paper analyzed China’s LNG industry chain in the scale and technicallevel, LNG trade security and supply continuity, and then designed LNGgeo-economic strategy. A country risk rating system was established in the paper.Related data and information in the year of2010was used to assess the country’spolitical risk, economic risk of China’s major LNG importing countries. Besides,resource potential of world major LNG exporting countries was analized on storagecapacity, production, consumption and proven reserves.
（2）On basis of China's LNG industry, including the evaluation of China'senergy security, LNG energy security and sustainability, the three geo-economiccharacteristics of energy, the geo-economic sustainable developing strategy forChina's LNG importing was designed: selecting the establishment of Asia-PacificLNG regional trade alliance strategy based on the global energy geopolitical patternof balanced and regional national interests of balance; establishing Russia, Iranback-up energy base strategy based on the national long and short-term energy supplyand risk, profit equilibrium selection; increasing the proportion of LNG imports inChina and striving for LNG pricing and future participate in the strategic LNG pricecompetition in the market based on China's energy structure balance.
（3）It designed a market structure and mechanism model for the domestic natural gas market to promote the sustainable developmental strategy on importingLNG of China. And it also used bargaining model to simulate the process ofnegotiations for China and LNG supply country bilateral gas trade, which quotedbased on Bias equilibrium solution.
引文
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