基于环境因素的中国农业生产率增长状况实证研究
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摘要
中国在改革开放的三十年来,一方面经济得到迅猛发展,GDP年均增长率高达9.8%;另一方面则在经济高速发展的过程中,付出了很大的资源和环境代价。中国工业化、城市化进程导致的环境污染一直受到广泛关注,其对经济的影响评估已有不少研究成果,但农业生产中产生的环境污染及其对农业经济的影响却未得到社会的足够重视。随着我国农业生产投入的增加,农业生产带来的环境污染越来越严重。现有研究表明,农业污染已成为水体的重要污染源之一,并上升成为威胁饮用水源和水环境安全的重要因素。因此,需要考虑农业污染这一环境因素,重新测算中国农业全要素生产率增长及其构成的变化情况。本文针对农业发展过程中日益严重的环境约束问题,通过把环境因素纳入全要素生产率分析框架,实证分析了环境约束下中国农业生产率增长问题。主要研究内容和主要结论如下:
(1)在回顾有关传统全要素生产率研究和数据包络分析方法(DEA)的基础上,介绍了基于环境因素的Malmquist-Luenberge生产率指数的相关概念。
(2)基于1999-2008年省际投入产出面板数据,运用方向性距离函数测算了中国30个省(直辖市、自治区)的农业环境技术效率,采用Malmquist-Luenberger生产率指数测度了28个省(直辖市、自治区)的农业全要素生产率(TFP)增长,并将其进一步分解为技术进步率指数和技术效率变化指数。同时,将Malmquist-Luenberge生产率指数与农业环境技术效率、农林牧渔业总产值(“好”产出)进行比较分析。
(3)将包含环境因素的ML指数与不含有环境因素的Malmquist生产率指数进行比较,考察环境因素对生产率测定的影响。
(4)实证结果表明:东部的农业环境技术效率明显高于中、西部,而中、西部的差别很小,中部略低于西部;1999-2008年间各年的ML指数均值都大于1,表明中国农业每年的生产率都在增长;中国农业生产率的改进来源于技术进步,技术效率变化均值为0.997,农业技术效率在轻微退步;忽略环境因素会高估我国的农业生产率增长。
最后,在理论与实证分析结果基础上,本文对如何促进中国农业生产率健康发展提出了相应的政策建议。
Thirty years’reform and opening up has witnessed China’s continuous growth in economy, and the annual growth rate of GDP has reached 9.8%. However, the development is attained at the expense of resources and environment. Although pollution issues caused by intensification of industrialization and urbanization have received extensive attention, and the assessment of its impact on the economy has a lot of research, the agricultural pollution and its impact on the agricultural economy in China was ignored sometimes by society. With the increase of agricultural inputs, the pollution caused by agricultural production becomes more and more serious. Existing studies have shown that agricultural pollution has become one of the main sources of water pollution, and a threat to drinking water sources. Thereby, it’s necessary to re-estimate the growth and the composition changes of China's agricultural total factor productivity. Focusing on the increasingly serious problem of agricultural environmental constraints, this paper analyses the agricultural productivity growth. The main research content and results are as follows:
Firstly, on the basis of reviewing the early researches related to traditional total factor productivity and DEA method , this paper introduces the related concepts of Malmquist-Luenberge environmental productivity index.
Secondly, we apply the directional distance function to estimate environmental technology efficiency of agriculture in 30 provinces from 1999 to 2008, and use Malmquist-Luenberger productivity index to measure the agricultural TFP growth rate in 28 provinces which was late divided into technological progress index and technical efficiency index. And then compare Malmquist-Luenberge index with environmental technology efficiency of agriculture and good product.
Thirdly, compare Malmquist-Luenberge index with Malmquist index to analyze the impact of environmental factor.
The results show that: the environmental technology efficiency in east China is much higher than that in middle and west, and the middle environmental technology efficiency is lower than the west. All ML indexes from 1999-2008 are larger than 1, which means the continuous annual growth of China’s agricultural productivity. In addition, the technological progress motivates the improvement of agricultural productivity growth, while the mean technical efficiency is 0.997, which is worse than before. Moreover, we find that if ignoring agricultural pollution, the average annual TFP growth rate would be overestimated.
Finally, on the basis of the above findings, the paper proposes some corresponding policy recommendation on promoting healthy agricultural TFP growth.
(1)在回顾有关传统全要素生产率研究和数据包络分析方法(DEA)的基础上,介绍了基于环境因素的Malmquist-Luenberge生产率指数的相关概念。
(2)基于1999-2008年省际投入产出面板数据,运用方向性距离函数测算了中国30个省(直辖市、自治区)的农业环境技术效率,采用Malmquist-Luenberger生产率指数测度了28个省(直辖市、自治区)的农业全要素生产率(TFP)增长,并将其进一步分解为技术进步率指数和技术效率变化指数。同时,将Malmquist-Luenberge生产率指数与农业环境技术效率、农林牧渔业总产值(“好”产出)进行比较分析。
(3)将包含环境因素的ML指数与不含有环境因素的Malmquist生产率指数进行比较,考察环境因素对生产率测定的影响。
(4)实证结果表明:东部的农业环境技术效率明显高于中、西部,而中、西部的差别很小,中部略低于西部;1999-2008年间各年的ML指数均值都大于1,表明中国农业每年的生产率都在增长;中国农业生产率的改进来源于技术进步,技术效率变化均值为0.997,农业技术效率在轻微退步;忽略环境因素会高估我国的农业生产率增长。
最后,在理论与实证分析结果基础上,本文对如何促进中国农业生产率健康发展提出了相应的政策建议。
Thirty years’reform and opening up has witnessed China’s continuous growth in economy, and the annual growth rate of GDP has reached 9.8%. However, the development is attained at the expense of resources and environment. Although pollution issues caused by intensification of industrialization and urbanization have received extensive attention, and the assessment of its impact on the economy has a lot of research, the agricultural pollution and its impact on the agricultural economy in China was ignored sometimes by society. With the increase of agricultural inputs, the pollution caused by agricultural production becomes more and more serious. Existing studies have shown that agricultural pollution has become one of the main sources of water pollution, and a threat to drinking water sources. Thereby, it’s necessary to re-estimate the growth and the composition changes of China's agricultural total factor productivity. Focusing on the increasingly serious problem of agricultural environmental constraints, this paper analyses the agricultural productivity growth. The main research content and results are as follows:
Firstly, on the basis of reviewing the early researches related to traditional total factor productivity and DEA method , this paper introduces the related concepts of Malmquist-Luenberge environmental productivity index.
Secondly, we apply the directional distance function to estimate environmental technology efficiency of agriculture in 30 provinces from 1999 to 2008, and use Malmquist-Luenberger productivity index to measure the agricultural TFP growth rate in 28 provinces which was late divided into technological progress index and technical efficiency index. And then compare Malmquist-Luenberge index with environmental technology efficiency of agriculture and good product.
Thirdly, compare Malmquist-Luenberge index with Malmquist index to analyze the impact of environmental factor.
The results show that: the environmental technology efficiency in east China is much higher than that in middle and west, and the middle environmental technology efficiency is lower than the west. All ML indexes from 1999-2008 are larger than 1, which means the continuous annual growth of China’s agricultural productivity. In addition, the technological progress motivates the improvement of agricultural productivity growth, while the mean technical efficiency is 0.997, which is worse than before. Moreover, we find that if ignoring agricultural pollution, the average annual TFP growth rate would be overestimated.
Finally, on the basis of the above findings, the paper proposes some corresponding policy recommendation on promoting healthy agricultural TFP growth.
引文
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杨俊,邵汉华. 2009.环境约束下的中国工业增长状况研究[J].数量经济技术经济研究,(9):64-78.
杨文举. 2009.中国地区工业的动态环境绩效:基于DEA的经验分析[J].数量经济技术经济研究,(9):87-98.
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陈敏鹏,陈吉宁,赖斯芸. 2006.中国农业和农村污染的清单分析与空间特征识别[J].中国环境科学, 26 (6):751-755.
陈诗一. 2009.能源消耗、二氧化碳排放与中国工业的可持续发展[J].经济研究,(4):41-55.
陈卫平. 2006.中国农业生产率增长、技术进步与效率变化:1990～2003年[J].中国农村观察, (1):18-23.
程明芳,何萍,金继运. 2010.我国主要作物磷肥利用率的研究进展[J].作物杂志,1:12-14.
蒂莫西. J.科埃利, D.S.普拉萨德.拉奥,等. 2008,效率与生产率分析引论[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社.
段华平,朱琳,孙勤芳,卞新民. 2010.农村环境污染控制区划方法与应用研究[J].中国环境科学, 30 (3):426-432.
贺缠生,傅伯杰,陈利顶. 1998.非点源污染的管理及控制[J].环境科学, 19(5):87-91.
李谷成. 2009.人力资本与中国区域农业全要素生产率增长[J].财经研究, 35(8):115-128.
李静,孟令杰. 2006.中国农业生产率的变动与分解分析:1978～2004年[J].数量经济技术经济研究, (5):11-19.
刘润堂,许建中,冯绍元,等. 2002.农业面源污染对湖泊水质影响的初步分析[J].中国水利, (6):54-56.
赖斯芸,杜鹏飞,陈吉宁. 2004.基于单元分析的非点源污染调查评估方法[J].清华人学学报(自然科学版), 44(9):1184-1187.
彭里,王定勇. 2004.重庆市畜禽粪便年排放量的估算研究[J].农业工程学报,20(1):288-292.
彭少兵,黄见良,钟旭华,等. 2002.提高中国稻田氮肥利用率的研究策略[J].中国农业科学,35(9):1095-1103.
钱秀红. 2001.杭嘉湖平原农业非点源污染的调查评价及控制对策研究[D].杭州:浙江大学.
全炯振. 2009.中国农业全要素生产率增长的实证分析:1978~2007年[J].中国农村经济, (9):36-47.
全为民,严力蛟. 2002.农业面源污染对水体富营养化的影响及其防治措施[J].生态学报, 22(3):291-299.
Scott Rozelle,黄季焜. 2005.中国的农村经济与通向现代工业国之路[J].经济学(季刊), 4(4):1019-1042.
涂正革. 2008.环境、资源与工业增长的协调性[J].经济研究,(2):93-105.
王兵,吴延瑞,颜鹏飞. 2008.环境管制与全要素生产率增长:APEC的实证研究[J].经济研究,(5):19-32.
王米,杨京平,徐伟,汪华,等. 2009.分次施氮对单季稻氮素利用率及生态经济适宜施氮量的影响[J].浙江大学学报(农业与生命科学版),35(1):71-76.
王新谋. 1998.家畜粪便学[M].上海:上海交大出版社.
吴敬琏. 2005.中国经济增长模式抉择[M].上海:上海远东出版社.
杨俊,邵汉华. 2009.环境约束下的中国工业增长状况研究[J].数量经济技术经济研究,(9):64-78.
杨文举. 2009.中国地区工业的动态环境绩效:基于DEA的经验分析[J].数量经济技术经济研究,(9):87-98.
尹娟,费良军,田军仓,等. 2005.水稻田中氮肥损失研究进展[J].农业工程学报,21(6):189-191.
曾先峰,李国平. 2008.我国各地区的农业生产率与收敛:1980～2005[J].数量经济技术经济研究, (5):81-92.
张斌. 2002.浅谈GB+150632001复混肥料复合肥料国家标准[J].磷肥与氮肥,17(2):58-59.
张从. 2001.中国农村面源污染的环境影响及其控制对策[J].环境科学动态,(4):10-13.
张大弟,张晓红,章家骐,沈根祥. 1997.上海市郊非点源污染综合调查评价[J].上海农业学报, 13 (1):31-36.
张清,陈智文,刘吉平,等. 2007.提高磷肥利用率的研究现状及发展趋势[J].世界农业,2:50-52.
张晓第. 2008.环境效率经济的理论与实践研究[D].北京:中国地质大学.
赵洪斌. 2004.改革开放以来中国农业技术进步率演进的研究[J].财经研究, 30(12):91-100.
周端明. 2009.技术进步、技术效率与中国农业生产率增长[J].数量经济技术经济研究, (12):70-82.
Christainsen GB, Haveman RH. 1981. The contribution of environmental regulations to the slowdown in economic growth [J]. Environ Econ Manage, 8: 381-390.
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