国际石油工程项目投标前期决策研究
|
摘要
石油是人类赖以生存和发展的物质基础,随着我国对石油的需求量与日俱增,进行国际石油市场开发已成为我国石油企业未来发展的必然趋势。投标作为石油企业承揽国际石油工程项目的重要手段,因其经济价值和政治价值而备受世界各国的关注,石油企业若想以最低的价格、最小的风险和最大的预期收益赢得项目标的,关键就在于投标前的决策分析。因此,运用各种手段全面分析国际投标形势及项目施工的内外部环境,以便做出正确的投标决策就显得尤为重要。目前,我国对于国际石油工程项目投标决策的研究相对甚少,没有形成一定的理论体系和框架,即使有少数的公司对外开展跨国投标,其投标的全部资料也不便公布于外,使得众多学者展开具体的理论研究和实践应用缺乏重要的现实依据。
在对国内外石油工程项目及其投标案例研究的基础上,将投标前期决策作为研究重点,对我国石油企业开展国际石油工程项目投标活动的问题进行了深入分析。
首先,在对我国石油企业进行跨国石油项目投标现状分析的基础上,重点分析了国际石油工程项目投标决策的特性,进而阐述了国际石油工程项目投标前期决策的内容,包括:国际石油工程项目投标政治风险评价、国际石油工程项目选标决策评价和国际石油工程项目投标合作伙伴选择决策评价;第二,在国际石油工程项目投标政治风险评价中,首先阐述了国际石油工程项目投标政治风险评价的必要性,然后,构建了政治风险评价指标体系,将政局稳定性风险、政府干预风险、政治暴力风险及政策和法律法规风险四个风险类型定为一级评价准则,最后,建立了灰色物元评价模型;第三,在国际石油工程项目选标决策评价中,首先阐述了选标评价指标体系构建原则,并初步建立了选标决策指标体系,随后,考虑到指标种类繁多,有些指标的相关性强,或个别指标对分析结果产生的影响较小,因此,借助SPSS统计软件,对评价指标进行了精选,以此构建了最终的选标决策评价指标体系;第四,在国际石油工程项目投标合作伙伴选择决策评价中,首先阐述了国际石油工程项目联合投标的方式,然后论述了投标合作伙伴选择原则,其次,通过投标合作伙伴选择决策因素分析,在构建评价指标体系时选取企业资源文化、行业优势、企业财务状况这三个影响因素作为一级评价指标;最后,通过厄瓜多尔石油工程项目实例,利用灰色物元分析法对三部分决策内容进行评价,进一步阐述了投标前期决策体系的实际应用情况。
Oil is the important material basis for the subsistence and development of the mankind and with the increasing demand on it, it is an inevitable trend for petroleum enterprises to carry out the projects internationally. Bidding has caught redoubled attention from various countries due to economic and political values. If the petroleum enterprises aim to win the bidding with the lowest price, minimum risk and maximum expected return, bidding decision before bidding undoubtedly becomes the key link throughout the whole project. Therefore, it is significantly essential to analyze international bidding situations and the inner-outer environment for projects to make right bidding decisions with all means.
Based on the studies on petroleum projects bidding cases at home and abroad, focusing on the pre-bidding decision-makings, depth analysis are made for petroleum enterprises to carry on the projects bidding. Firstly, it focuses on the study of characteristics of decision-making in international petroleum project bidding and then the contents of pre-bidding decision-makings in international petroleum projects, which includes three aspects that political risk assessment, project election decision assessment and bidding partners selection for bidding assessment. Secondly, while making political risks evaluation, the author states the necessity of political risks assessment, and establishes the assessment evaluation indicators system, then, the risk assessment of gray matter-element model (FHW) is established. Thirdly, while making projects selecting evaluation, the paper states the principles of constructing the evaluating indicators system, and establishes the initial indicators system. Then, considering the big numbers of indicators and correlation among indicators, SPSS statistical software is used to select from initial indicators. Last, the final system is given out. Fourthly, while making bidding partners electing evaluation, the author states the ways of syndicated bidding, and then sets three factor as first grade indicators. Finally, the petroleum project in Ecuador taken as an example, paper further elaborates the practical application of pre-bidding decision-makings system with the FHW.
在对国内外石油工程项目及其投标案例研究的基础上,将投标前期决策作为研究重点,对我国石油企业开展国际石油工程项目投标活动的问题进行了深入分析。
首先,在对我国石油企业进行跨国石油项目投标现状分析的基础上,重点分析了国际石油工程项目投标决策的特性,进而阐述了国际石油工程项目投标前期决策的内容,包括:国际石油工程项目投标政治风险评价、国际石油工程项目选标决策评价和国际石油工程项目投标合作伙伴选择决策评价;第二,在国际石油工程项目投标政治风险评价中,首先阐述了国际石油工程项目投标政治风险评价的必要性,然后,构建了政治风险评价指标体系,将政局稳定性风险、政府干预风险、政治暴力风险及政策和法律法规风险四个风险类型定为一级评价准则,最后,建立了灰色物元评价模型;第三,在国际石油工程项目选标决策评价中,首先阐述了选标评价指标体系构建原则,并初步建立了选标决策指标体系,随后,考虑到指标种类繁多,有些指标的相关性强,或个别指标对分析结果产生的影响较小,因此,借助SPSS统计软件,对评价指标进行了精选,以此构建了最终的选标决策评价指标体系;第四,在国际石油工程项目投标合作伙伴选择决策评价中,首先阐述了国际石油工程项目联合投标的方式,然后论述了投标合作伙伴选择原则,其次,通过投标合作伙伴选择决策因素分析,在构建评价指标体系时选取企业资源文化、行业优势、企业财务状况这三个影响因素作为一级评价指标;最后,通过厄瓜多尔石油工程项目实例,利用灰色物元分析法对三部分决策内容进行评价,进一步阐述了投标前期决策体系的实际应用情况。
Oil is the important material basis for the subsistence and development of the mankind and with the increasing demand on it, it is an inevitable trend for petroleum enterprises to carry out the projects internationally. Bidding has caught redoubled attention from various countries due to economic and political values. If the petroleum enterprises aim to win the bidding with the lowest price, minimum risk and maximum expected return, bidding decision before bidding undoubtedly becomes the key link throughout the whole project. Therefore, it is significantly essential to analyze international bidding situations and the inner-outer environment for projects to make right bidding decisions with all means.
Based on the studies on petroleum projects bidding cases at home and abroad, focusing on the pre-bidding decision-makings, depth analysis are made for petroleum enterprises to carry on the projects bidding. Firstly, it focuses on the study of characteristics of decision-making in international petroleum project bidding and then the contents of pre-bidding decision-makings in international petroleum projects, which includes three aspects that political risk assessment, project election decision assessment and bidding partners selection for bidding assessment. Secondly, while making political risks evaluation, the author states the necessity of political risks assessment, and establishes the assessment evaluation indicators system, then, the risk assessment of gray matter-element model (FHW) is established. Thirdly, while making projects selecting evaluation, the paper states the principles of constructing the evaluating indicators system, and establishes the initial indicators system. Then, considering the big numbers of indicators and correlation among indicators, SPSS statistical software is used to select from initial indicators. Last, the final system is given out. Fourthly, while making bidding partners electing evaluation, the author states the ways of syndicated bidding, and then sets three factor as first grade indicators. Finally, the petroleum project in Ecuador taken as an example, paper further elaborates the practical application of pre-bidding decision-makings system with the FHW.
引文
[1]解志良,毛羽.国际工程投标风险及应对策略[J].电力建设,2006,27(5):62-63.
[2]邹小华.谈谈怎样提高中标率[J].建筑设计管理,2007,(3):17-19.
[3] Jacob Greenstein.Prevention and Repair Measures for Infrastructure Natural Disaster Risk Management. Proceedings of 6th U.S. Conference and Workshop on Lifeline Earthquake Engineering,2003:799-808.
[4]施振海.基于模糊综合评价和人工神经网络的投标决策模型研究[D].浙江大学,2007.
[5] Crowley L G, Friedman and Gates——another look[J], Journal of Construction Engineering and Management,2000, 126(4):306-312.
[6] F.H.(Bud) Griffis , Symeon Christodoulou. Construction Risk Analysis Tool for Determining Liquidated Damages Insurance Premiums:Case Study [J]. J. Constr. Engrg. and Mgmt,2000(6):407-413.
[7]柳鹏.国际工程投标决策研究[D].东北林业大学,2006.
[8]於永和.BOT项目投标决策模型及其应用研究[D].湖南大学,2006.
[9]陈志鼎,赵彪.联合投标中合作伙伴的选择[J].工程建设与设计,2004,(8):83-84.
[10]何新华,胡文发.国际环境下的项目政治风险评价模型[J].同济大学学报,2007(11):1572-1577.
[11]杜日东.涉外工程国际性招投标研究[D].大连理工大学,2002.
[12] Chua D K H,Li D.Key factors in bid reasoning model. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 2000, 126(5):349-350.
[13]全国建筑业企业项目经理培训教材编写委员会.工程招投标与合同管理[M].中国建筑工业出版社,2000:142-145.
[14]余晓钟,钟冬梅.石油工程项目投资决策特征.石油化工技术与经济,2004,7(1):22-23.
[15] Andrew Baldwin, Ronald McCaffer, International Bid Preparation[M].International Labor Office,Geneva,1995.
[16]秦宣仁.国际战略格局的重要筹码--能源外交及能源战略[J].国际贸易,2005(1):43-45.
[17] D.K.H.Chua,D.Z.Li,W.T.Chan,Case-based reasoning approach in bid decision making[J]. Journal of Construction Engineering and management,2001(1):35-45.
[18] Tam.C M. Bild-Operate-Transfer Model for Infrastructure Developments in Asia: Reasons for Successes and Failures[J]. InternationalJounral of Project Management,1999,17(6):377-328.
[19] Wanous. M. Boussabaine.A.H.TO BID OR NOT TO BID: A PARAMETRIC SOLUTION[J].Construction Management& Economics.2000,18(4):457-466.
[20] Chen, J, X L Chen ,and X P Song. Bidder‘s Strategy Under Group- Buying Auction on the Internet[J]. IEEE Transactions on Systems Man and Cybernetics Part A-Systems and Humans,2002,32(6):680-690.
[21]肖芳淳,敬加强.灰色物元决策理论及其应用[J].石油勘探与开发,2000,27(3):64-66.
[22] Yong Yin,Qiyuan Peng,and Xuecai Xu.Study on Classification of Marshalling Station Based on Fuzzy Clustering Analysis[A]. International Conference on Transportation Engineering 2007 Proceedings of the First International Conference,2007:56-58.
[23]徐振强,江旭.国际石油合作项目中的政治风险及其管理[J].国际经济合作,2003(6):66-69.
[24]胡文发.基于BP算法的国际工程项目政治风险评价模型[J].重庆建筑大学学报,2006,28(4):98-105.
[25] M M Kumaraswamy, X Q Zhang. Governmental Role in BOT- led infrastructure Development. International Journals of Project Management,2001(19):195-205.
[26]刘宝发.国际石油勘探开发项目政治风险的不确定性研究[J].中国石油大学学报,2009,25(2):1-4.
[27] Seydel John, Olson David L. Bids considering multiple criterial[J].Journal of construction Engineering and Management,1990(4):609-622
[28] Herbsman Z. and Ellis, R. Multi-parameter Bidding System- Innovation in Contract Administration. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management,1992,118(1) :142-150.
[29]刘睿.国际大型土木工程承包项目投标风险定量评估[D].天津大学,2004.
[30]刘今朝.21世纪中国—伊朗油气合作的风险研究[D].西南大学,2006.
[31]冯宁.大型工程项目风险评价指标体系的构建[J].基建优化,2007,12(28):48-49.
[32]元红花.我国风险投资项目评估指标体系研究[J].商业经济,2008(11):22-23.
[33] Fayek Aminah. Competitive bidding strategy model and software system for bidding preparation[J]. Journal of Construction Engineering and Managemen,ASCE 1998(1):1-10.
[34]谢忠刚.石油工程项目国际投标研究[D].华东石油大学,2003.
[35]徐畅.我国石油技术服务企业产品跨国营销风险问题研究[D].大庆石油学院,2007.
[36]吕哲.中国国际石油合作中政治风险的指标体系构建与规避措施的研究[J].华商,2007(30):11-13.
[37]洪伟民,朱志伟.基于模糊AHP的国际工程项目投标风险评价[J].煤炭工程,2008(4):112-113.
[38]唐小我,陈绍刚,赵蜀蓉.招标与拍卖过程中的投标人数的研究[J].中国管理科学,2003,11(5):86-87.
[39]崔振云.联合投标中合作伙伴的选择[J].铁道工程企业管理,2006(2):38-40.
[40]应保胜,高全杰,杨少华.面向工程的合作伙伴选择模型[J].中国工程机械学报,2005,3(1):76-83.
[41]俞燕,黄文胜.基于AHP及模糊综合评价的供应链合作伙伴选择模型探讨[J].中国管理信息化,2009,12(16):80-82.
[42]王鹤.基于两阶段的虚拟企业合作伙伴选择模型[J].中国科技信息,2007(3):125-126.
[2]邹小华.谈谈怎样提高中标率[J].建筑设计管理,2007,(3):17-19.
[3] Jacob Greenstein.Prevention and Repair Measures for Infrastructure Natural Disaster Risk Management. Proceedings of 6th U.S. Conference and Workshop on Lifeline Earthquake Engineering,2003:799-808.
[4]施振海.基于模糊综合评价和人工神经网络的投标决策模型研究[D].浙江大学,2007.
[5] Crowley L G, Friedman and Gates——another look[J], Journal of Construction Engineering and Management,2000, 126(4):306-312.
[6] F.H.(Bud) Griffis , Symeon Christodoulou. Construction Risk Analysis Tool for Determining Liquidated Damages Insurance Premiums:Case Study [J]. J. Constr. Engrg. and Mgmt,2000(6):407-413.
[7]柳鹏.国际工程投标决策研究[D].东北林业大学,2006.
[8]於永和.BOT项目投标决策模型及其应用研究[D].湖南大学,2006.
[9]陈志鼎,赵彪.联合投标中合作伙伴的选择[J].工程建设与设计,2004,(8):83-84.
[10]何新华,胡文发.国际环境下的项目政治风险评价模型[J].同济大学学报,2007(11):1572-1577.
[11]杜日东.涉外工程国际性招投标研究[D].大连理工大学,2002.
[12] Chua D K H,Li D.Key factors in bid reasoning model. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 2000, 126(5):349-350.
[13]全国建筑业企业项目经理培训教材编写委员会.工程招投标与合同管理[M].中国建筑工业出版社,2000:142-145.
[14]余晓钟,钟冬梅.石油工程项目投资决策特征.石油化工技术与经济,2004,7(1):22-23.
[15] Andrew Baldwin, Ronald McCaffer, International Bid Preparation[M].International Labor Office,Geneva,1995.
[16]秦宣仁.国际战略格局的重要筹码--能源外交及能源战略[J].国际贸易,2005(1):43-45.
[17] D.K.H.Chua,D.Z.Li,W.T.Chan,Case-based reasoning approach in bid decision making[J]. Journal of Construction Engineering and management,2001(1):35-45.
[18] Tam.C M. Bild-Operate-Transfer Model for Infrastructure Developments in Asia: Reasons for Successes and Failures[J]. InternationalJounral of Project Management,1999,17(6):377-328.
[19] Wanous. M. Boussabaine.A.H.TO BID OR NOT TO BID: A PARAMETRIC SOLUTION[J].Construction Management& Economics.2000,18(4):457-466.
[20] Chen, J, X L Chen ,and X P Song. Bidder‘s Strategy Under Group- Buying Auction on the Internet[J]. IEEE Transactions on Systems Man and Cybernetics Part A-Systems and Humans,2002,32(6):680-690.
[21]肖芳淳,敬加强.灰色物元决策理论及其应用[J].石油勘探与开发,2000,27(3):64-66.
[22] Yong Yin,Qiyuan Peng,and Xuecai Xu.Study on Classification of Marshalling Station Based on Fuzzy Clustering Analysis[A]. International Conference on Transportation Engineering 2007 Proceedings of the First International Conference,2007:56-58.
[23]徐振强,江旭.国际石油合作项目中的政治风险及其管理[J].国际经济合作,2003(6):66-69.
[24]胡文发.基于BP算法的国际工程项目政治风险评价模型[J].重庆建筑大学学报,2006,28(4):98-105.
[25] M M Kumaraswamy, X Q Zhang. Governmental Role in BOT- led infrastructure Development. International Journals of Project Management,2001(19):195-205.
[26]刘宝发.国际石油勘探开发项目政治风险的不确定性研究[J].中国石油大学学报,2009,25(2):1-4.
[27] Seydel John, Olson David L. Bids considering multiple criterial[J].Journal of construction Engineering and Management,1990(4):609-622
[28] Herbsman Z. and Ellis, R. Multi-parameter Bidding System- Innovation in Contract Administration. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management,1992,118(1) :142-150.
[29]刘睿.国际大型土木工程承包项目投标风险定量评估[D].天津大学,2004.
[30]刘今朝.21世纪中国—伊朗油气合作的风险研究[D].西南大学,2006.
[31]冯宁.大型工程项目风险评价指标体系的构建[J].基建优化,2007,12(28):48-49.
[32]元红花.我国风险投资项目评估指标体系研究[J].商业经济,2008(11):22-23.
[33] Fayek Aminah. Competitive bidding strategy model and software system for bidding preparation[J]. Journal of Construction Engineering and Managemen,ASCE 1998(1):1-10.
[34]谢忠刚.石油工程项目国际投标研究[D].华东石油大学,2003.
[35]徐畅.我国石油技术服务企业产品跨国营销风险问题研究[D].大庆石油学院,2007.
[36]吕哲.中国国际石油合作中政治风险的指标体系构建与规避措施的研究[J].华商,2007(30):11-13.
[37]洪伟民,朱志伟.基于模糊AHP的国际工程项目投标风险评价[J].煤炭工程,2008(4):112-113.
[38]唐小我,陈绍刚,赵蜀蓉.招标与拍卖过程中的投标人数的研究[J].中国管理科学,2003,11(5):86-87.
[39]崔振云.联合投标中合作伙伴的选择[J].铁道工程企业管理,2006(2):38-40.
[40]应保胜,高全杰,杨少华.面向工程的合作伙伴选择模型[J].中国工程机械学报,2005,3(1):76-83.
[41]俞燕,黄文胜.基于AHP及模糊综合评价的供应链合作伙伴选择模型探讨[J].中国管理信息化,2009,12(16):80-82.
[42]王鹤.基于两阶段的虚拟企业合作伙伴选择模型[J].中国科技信息,2007(3):125-126.