中纬度海陆热力差异对东亚夏季环流及降水的影响
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摘要
季风产生的根本原因就是海陆差异,对东亚夏季风环流影响显著的海陆差异研究主要集中在青藏高原与印度洋、西太平洋之间的海陆热力差异对夏季风环流的影响,以及南亚次尺度海陆分布对季风的爆发的影响这两方面。对中纬度副热带地区海陆分布影响东亚夏季风环流和降水的研究相对较少,本文就从这个角度出发,研究了中纬度夏季对流层大气海陆热力变化特征,分析了中纬度海陆热力差异对东亚夏季风环流和降水的影响及可能的物理机制,探讨了影响该热力变化的主要因子。主要结论可归纳为以下几个方面:
1.定义了中纬度夏季海陆热力差异指数并讨论了其变化特征
首先通过对1958-2000年夏季(6-8月)东亚太平洋地区(60o-180oE,10o-80oN)500hPa位势高度场的EOF分析表明,其主要模态显示了中纬度欧亚大陆与东部其邻近海洋的大气内部热力状态呈反相变化关系。根据这一特征,定义了反映对流层中低层大气热力差异的中纬度海陆热力差异指数LSI,该指数等于欧陆内陆区域(75o-90oE,40o-55oN)和日本附近海洋区域(140o-150oE,35o-42.5oN)的500hPa位势高度距平的偏差。通过周期谱分析表明,中纬度海陆热力差异指数有着显著的年际和年代际变化,1978年之后指数有明显的上升趋势。海陆差异指数存在周期为3年左右的年际变化和10年左右的年代际变化,其年际变化主要归因于日本及邻近海洋区域大气热力状况,该区域大气热力变化存在3-5年周期的年际变化特征,而欧亚内陆大气热力状况10年左右周期的年代际变化明显,对LSI指数的年代际变化的贡献更显著。
2.中纬度海陆热力差异与东亚夏季降水关系密切。
当中纬度海陆热力差异异常强(弱)时,长江中下游地区-韩国-日本及其东部洋面夏季降水增多(减少),而在我国南海,热带西太平洋,华北地区,东北亚高纬度地区的夏季降水则减少(增加)。LSI指数与夏季降水距平相关系数的空间分布特征与夏季降水距平EOF主要模态的空间分布特征十分相似,而且指数的年际变化趋势与该模态的年际变化有很高的相关关系。这表明中纬度海陆热力差异是影响东亚太平洋地区夏季降水变化的一个非常重要的影响因子。
我们还探讨了中纬度海陆热力差异影响东亚太平洋地区夏季降水的可能物理机制。中纬度海陆热力差异通过影响东亚地区夏季环流进而影响降水。在LSI指数高值年夏季,陆地异常的暖气团使得中纬度欧亚内陆哈萨克斯坦东部地区产生反气旋型异常环流,而海洋的异常冷气团则使得日本及其邻近海洋产生气旋性异常环流。与此同时,中国南海及西太平洋的热带地区也出现了反气旋性异常环流,并与日本地区的气旋性异常环流相连。这种空间环流结构的配置容易造成长江中下游地区-韩国-日本一带的降水较常年偏多,而在此纬向带的南、北两侧地区如华南和华北则降水较常年偏少。在LSI指数低值年夏季,与此相反。
3.研究了陆面和海洋不同的下垫面热通量及大气内部非绝热加热对海陆热力差异指数的影响。
分析表明,欧亚内陆-气热通量的变化对陆地热力指数的影响不显著,与此相比,在日本附近的西北太平洋海域海-气潜热通量和长波辐射的变化对海洋热力指数的年际变化作用较明显。在欧亚内陆地区和日本邻近西北太平洋区域,大气的非绝热加热率随高度的变化各有特点,影响陆地热力指数最显著的是对流层中层的长波辐射和短波辐射加热,其次是对流层低层的长波辐射,短波辐射和深对流加热;而对海洋热力指数有显著影响的主要是近地面边界层的垂直湍流扰动加热,大尺度凝结潜热加热和长波辐射加热,对流层中低层的大尺度凝结潜热加热和浅对流加热对海洋热力指数也有一定影响。导致海洋热力指数与对流层低层大气温度的关系更密切,而陆地热力指数与对流层中层大气温度的关系密切,后者可能更主要受大气内部大尺度准定常波动或遥相关的影响所致。
4.探讨了前期全球海表温度异常对海陆热力差异指数的影响
通过对陆地、海洋热力指数及海陆差异指数与前期全球海表温度的相关分析,发现北印度洋(50°-130°E,10°S-20°N)区域的海温异常对欧亚内陆陆地热力指数的影响最显著,而影响日本附近海洋热力指数的关键区是西北太平洋(140°E-180°,10°-20°N)区域。通过对整个北太平洋冬季海温的EOF分析,表明了该西北太平洋区域的海温年际变化与整个北太平洋冬季海温的主要变化模态密切相关。合成分析结果进一步证实这两个海洋关键区对海陆热力差异指数的影响。
为此,我们分别讨论了西北太平洋区域前冬、春季海表面温度变化与夏季海洋热力指数,北印度洋关键区前冬、春季海表面温度变化与夏季陆地热力指数年际变化特征,其相关系数分别为0.55,0.51和0.48,0.57。说明这两个关键区域的前冬、春季海温异常对中纬度海陆热力差异指数的变化具有很重要的预报意义。我们还讨论了北太平洋、北印度洋前冬海表面温度变化与东亚地区夏季环流的联系。西北太平洋冬季海温异常增暖(变冷)时,次年夏季日本及邻近海域大气易出现深厚的反气旋性(气旋性)环流,欧亚内陆哈撒克斯坦地区也易出现弱的气旋性(反气旋性)环流;而北印度洋冬季海温异常增暖(变冷)时,欧亚内陆哈撒克斯坦地区易出现深厚的反气旋性(气旋性)环流。
5.提出了前期冬季海温变化影响东亚夏季环流和降水的概念模型
综合上述分析结果,给出了前期冬季海温年际变化影响中纬度东亚地区夏季环流和降水的概念模型。当前冬西北太平洋区域海表面温度异常增温时,次年夏季日本及邻近海洋的对流层中层易出现反气旋性环流,通过大气内部的遥相关响应,影响欧亚内陆的哈撒克斯坦地区易出现弱的气旋性环流;同时北印度洋冬季海表温度往往出现异常变冷,可能通过青藏高原的动力或热力作用,影响高原北侧的哈萨克斯坦地区夏季易出现气旋性环流;在两者的共同作用下,使得哈萨克斯坦的气旋性环流更加深厚,日本及邻近海洋地区与欧亚内陆地区的位势高度差加剧,即中纬度海陆热力差异指数增强,因而造成中国长江流域-韩国-日本及邻近海洋地区的夏季降水易偏多,而我国南海,热带西太平洋,华北地区,东北亚高纬度地区的夏季降水则减少。反之亦然。
The land-ocean thermal contrast is the primary driver for the Asian monsoon. Much work has gone into the connection of East Asian Summer Monsoon circulation and the large scale surface thermal contrast between Tibetan Plateau and Indian Ocean and Pacific; while the middle-latitude land-sea thermal contrast between Asian continent and adjacent ocean was paid to less attention. In this paper, the main feature of the middle-latitude troposphere atmospheric thermal contrast between the land and the sea in the boreal summer was studied, the impact mechanism of the land-sea thermal contrast on the East Asian summer monsoon circulation and precipitation were examined, and then explored the impact factors on the LSI.
The main conclusions are as follows:
1. The middle-latitude Land-Sea thermal contrast Index (LSI) was defined and studied its variation.
An empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis to the ERA-40 reanalysis data of June-July-August (JJA) 500-hPa geopotential height over Asia to Pacific area (60o-180oE, 10°-80°N) during 1958-2000 was done. The leading mode reveals the main feature of opposite year-to-year variation in phase of every JJA atmospheric internal thermal conditions over the middle-latitude East Asian continent and over the adjacent marginal ocean. The difference of the 500 hPa geopotential height anomalies between the land area A (75°-90°E, 40°-55°N) and the oceanic area B (140°-150°E, 35-42.5°N) is regarded as a representative of the middle-to-lower troposphere atmospheric temperature or thermal contrast between the continent and the ocean. The difference is defined as a middle-latitude Land-Sea thermal contrast Index (LSI).
The LSI has significant interannual and interdecadal variability. There exists an abrupt climate change near 1978. The climatological mean of LSI before 1978 is obviously lower than that after 1978. The surging periods of LSI are 3years and 10 years. Its interannual variation is mainly attributed to the atmospheric thermal condition over the ocean,which has 3-5 year period; while the interdecadal variability is mainly attributed to the atmospheric thermal condition over the land, which has 10 years period.
2. The LSI has close connection to the East Asian summer precipitation.
The results show that large/small LSI is related to rich/poor summer precipitation in the middle-to-lower reaches of the Yangtze River,Korea,Japan and its eastern adjacent ocean at the same latitude and poor/rich precipitation in the South China Sea and tropical western Pacific,as well as poor/rich precipitation in North China and high-latitude northeast Asia,respectively. The pattern of correlation between LSI and precipitation resembles to the spatial distribution of the principle EOF mode of year-to-year precipitation variations. Furthermore,the variation of LSI is highly correlated to the time series of the first EOF mode of summer precipitation anomalies. This suggests that the middle-latitude land-sea thermal contrast is one of important factors to influence on the summer precipitation variations over the area from the whole East Asia to the western Pacific.
The physical mechanism of LSI impacting on the East Asian summer precipitation is also investigated. In high LSI summers,strong land-sea thermal contrast i.e. warm air over land and cold air over ocean causes anticyclonic anomalies over Asian middle-latitude inland centered in the eastern part of Kazakhstan and the northwestern part of China and a cyclonic anomalies over East Asian middle-latitude ocean near Japan and around ocean. At the same time,an anomalous anticyclone over the tropical region from South China Sea to the western Pacific also appears to match with the anomalous cyclone near Japan. This spatial pattern causes more-than-normal summer monsoon precipitation from the middle-to-lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley to Japan and west Pacific,and less-than-normal precipitation to its north and south sides i.e. the south China and the north China. The anticyclonic anomalies over Asian inner continent likely play an important role in strengthening the anomalous north wind in north China and also positively act on the maintenances of the anomalous cyclone over Japan. In addition,the anomalous cyclone over Japan adjacent Ocean possibly acts as a bridge connecting the high-latitude systems like blocking highs and the lower latitude systems like Asian summer monsoon.
3. The impact of the surface heat flux and atmospheric diabatic heating over the land and the ocean on the LSI.
The results show that the surface heat flux over Eurasian inner land has little influence to the land thermal index, while the variation of the surface latent heat flux and long-wave radiation over the Pacific adjacent to Japan has highly correlation with the ocean thermal index. The changes with height of the atmospheric diabatic heating rates over the Eurasian inner land and the Pacific adjacent to Japan have different features.
The variations of the middle troposphere atmospheric long-wave and short-wave radiation heating have significantly influences on land thermal index, and that of the low troposphere atmospheric long-wave radiation, short-wave radiation and deep convective heating also have impact on the yearly variation of the land thermal index. For the ocean thermal index, the variations of the surface layer atmospheric vertical diffuse heating, large-scale latent heating and long-wave radiation heating are more important, low and middle troposphere atmospheric large-scale latent heating and shallow convective heating also have impact on the yearly variation of the ocean thermal index. And then the ocean thermal index has closely connection with the low troposphere atmospheric temperature, while the land thermal index has closely connection with the middle troposphere atmospheric temperature.
4. Effect of the preceding global SST anomalies on the LSI.
The relations of land thermal index and ocean thermal index and the global SST anomalies in the preceding autumn, winter, spring and same summer are observed, the results show that the preceding SST anomalies in North Indian Ocean (50o-130oE,10oS-20oN) has closely relationship with the land thermal index, and the preceding SST anomalies in Northwest Pacific (140oE-180o,10oN-20oN) are highly positively correlated with ocean thermal index. Utilizing EOF analysis, we have discussed the spatial distribution of SSTA in preceding winter over North Pacific, and it is found that the variation of SSTA in the area located in Northwest Pacific could reflect the variation of SSTA in North Pacific. The spacial distribution of preceding SSTA in the high and low LSI year confirmed the important effect of these two areas.
The relationship of the preceding winter and spring SSTA in the area located in Northwest Pacific and the ocean thermal index, and that of the preceding winter and spring SSTA in the area located in North Indian Ocean and the land thermal index, reveal that the preceding winter and spring SSTA in these two areas could be used as forecasting factors of the LSI. The effect of the preceding winter SSTA in these two areas on the summer circulation in East Asian was also observed. The results show that, when the preceding winter SSTA in Northwest Pacific is warmer (colder), the anticyclonic (cyclonic) anomalies appears in summer over Japan and adjacent ocean; when the preceding winter SSTA in North Indian Ocean is warmer (colder), the anticyclonic (cyclonic) anomalies appears in summer over Kazakhstan area in Eurasian inner land.
5. The conceptual model of the preceding winter SST impacting on the summer circulation and precipitation in East Asian.
When the preceding winter SSTA in Northwest Pacific is warmer, the anticyclonic in summer over Japan and adjacent ocean, and the weak cyclonic anomalies appears over Kazakhstan area in Eurasian inner land; and at the same time the preceding winter SSTA in North Indian Ocean is always colder, then the cyclonic anomalies appears in summer over Kazakhstan area in Eurasian inner land. The anticyclonic in Japan and adjacent ocean and the cyclonic in Eurasian inner land make the difference of geopotential height between these two areas be significant, and the LSI is higher, and result in the rich summer precipitation in the middle-to-lower reaches of the Yangtze River,Korea,Japan and its eastern adjacent ocean at the same latitude and poor summer precipitation in the South China Sea and tropical western Pacific,as well as poor precipitation in North China and high-latitude northeast Asia.
1.定义了中纬度夏季海陆热力差异指数并讨论了其变化特征
首先通过对1958-2000年夏季(6-8月)东亚太平洋地区(60o-180oE,10o-80oN)500hPa位势高度场的EOF分析表明,其主要模态显示了中纬度欧亚大陆与东部其邻近海洋的大气内部热力状态呈反相变化关系。根据这一特征,定义了反映对流层中低层大气热力差异的中纬度海陆热力差异指数LSI,该指数等于欧陆内陆区域(75o-90oE,40o-55oN)和日本附近海洋区域(140o-150oE,35o-42.5oN)的500hPa位势高度距平的偏差。通过周期谱分析表明,中纬度海陆热力差异指数有着显著的年际和年代际变化,1978年之后指数有明显的上升趋势。海陆差异指数存在周期为3年左右的年际变化和10年左右的年代际变化,其年际变化主要归因于日本及邻近海洋区域大气热力状况,该区域大气热力变化存在3-5年周期的年际变化特征,而欧亚内陆大气热力状况10年左右周期的年代际变化明显,对LSI指数的年代际变化的贡献更显著。
2.中纬度海陆热力差异与东亚夏季降水关系密切。
当中纬度海陆热力差异异常强(弱)时,长江中下游地区-韩国-日本及其东部洋面夏季降水增多(减少),而在我国南海,热带西太平洋,华北地区,东北亚高纬度地区的夏季降水则减少(增加)。LSI指数与夏季降水距平相关系数的空间分布特征与夏季降水距平EOF主要模态的空间分布特征十分相似,而且指数的年际变化趋势与该模态的年际变化有很高的相关关系。这表明中纬度海陆热力差异是影响东亚太平洋地区夏季降水变化的一个非常重要的影响因子。
我们还探讨了中纬度海陆热力差异影响东亚太平洋地区夏季降水的可能物理机制。中纬度海陆热力差异通过影响东亚地区夏季环流进而影响降水。在LSI指数高值年夏季,陆地异常的暖气团使得中纬度欧亚内陆哈萨克斯坦东部地区产生反气旋型异常环流,而海洋的异常冷气团则使得日本及其邻近海洋产生气旋性异常环流。与此同时,中国南海及西太平洋的热带地区也出现了反气旋性异常环流,并与日本地区的气旋性异常环流相连。这种空间环流结构的配置容易造成长江中下游地区-韩国-日本一带的降水较常年偏多,而在此纬向带的南、北两侧地区如华南和华北则降水较常年偏少。在LSI指数低值年夏季,与此相反。
3.研究了陆面和海洋不同的下垫面热通量及大气内部非绝热加热对海陆热力差异指数的影响。
分析表明,欧亚内陆-气热通量的变化对陆地热力指数的影响不显著,与此相比,在日本附近的西北太平洋海域海-气潜热通量和长波辐射的变化对海洋热力指数的年际变化作用较明显。在欧亚内陆地区和日本邻近西北太平洋区域,大气的非绝热加热率随高度的变化各有特点,影响陆地热力指数最显著的是对流层中层的长波辐射和短波辐射加热,其次是对流层低层的长波辐射,短波辐射和深对流加热;而对海洋热力指数有显著影响的主要是近地面边界层的垂直湍流扰动加热,大尺度凝结潜热加热和长波辐射加热,对流层中低层的大尺度凝结潜热加热和浅对流加热对海洋热力指数也有一定影响。导致海洋热力指数与对流层低层大气温度的关系更密切,而陆地热力指数与对流层中层大气温度的关系密切,后者可能更主要受大气内部大尺度准定常波动或遥相关的影响所致。
4.探讨了前期全球海表温度异常对海陆热力差异指数的影响
通过对陆地、海洋热力指数及海陆差异指数与前期全球海表温度的相关分析,发现北印度洋(50°-130°E,10°S-20°N)区域的海温异常对欧亚内陆陆地热力指数的影响最显著,而影响日本附近海洋热力指数的关键区是西北太平洋(140°E-180°,10°-20°N)区域。通过对整个北太平洋冬季海温的EOF分析,表明了该西北太平洋区域的海温年际变化与整个北太平洋冬季海温的主要变化模态密切相关。合成分析结果进一步证实这两个海洋关键区对海陆热力差异指数的影响。
为此,我们分别讨论了西北太平洋区域前冬、春季海表面温度变化与夏季海洋热力指数,北印度洋关键区前冬、春季海表面温度变化与夏季陆地热力指数年际变化特征,其相关系数分别为0.55,0.51和0.48,0.57。说明这两个关键区域的前冬、春季海温异常对中纬度海陆热力差异指数的变化具有很重要的预报意义。我们还讨论了北太平洋、北印度洋前冬海表面温度变化与东亚地区夏季环流的联系。西北太平洋冬季海温异常增暖(变冷)时,次年夏季日本及邻近海域大气易出现深厚的反气旋性(气旋性)环流,欧亚内陆哈撒克斯坦地区也易出现弱的气旋性(反气旋性)环流;而北印度洋冬季海温异常增暖(变冷)时,欧亚内陆哈撒克斯坦地区易出现深厚的反气旋性(气旋性)环流。
5.提出了前期冬季海温变化影响东亚夏季环流和降水的概念模型
综合上述分析结果,给出了前期冬季海温年际变化影响中纬度东亚地区夏季环流和降水的概念模型。当前冬西北太平洋区域海表面温度异常增温时,次年夏季日本及邻近海洋的对流层中层易出现反气旋性环流,通过大气内部的遥相关响应,影响欧亚内陆的哈撒克斯坦地区易出现弱的气旋性环流;同时北印度洋冬季海表温度往往出现异常变冷,可能通过青藏高原的动力或热力作用,影响高原北侧的哈萨克斯坦地区夏季易出现气旋性环流;在两者的共同作用下,使得哈萨克斯坦的气旋性环流更加深厚,日本及邻近海洋地区与欧亚内陆地区的位势高度差加剧,即中纬度海陆热力差异指数增强,因而造成中国长江流域-韩国-日本及邻近海洋地区的夏季降水易偏多,而我国南海,热带西太平洋,华北地区,东北亚高纬度地区的夏季降水则减少。反之亦然。
The land-ocean thermal contrast is the primary driver for the Asian monsoon. Much work has gone into the connection of East Asian Summer Monsoon circulation and the large scale surface thermal contrast between Tibetan Plateau and Indian Ocean and Pacific; while the middle-latitude land-sea thermal contrast between Asian continent and adjacent ocean was paid to less attention. In this paper, the main feature of the middle-latitude troposphere atmospheric thermal contrast between the land and the sea in the boreal summer was studied, the impact mechanism of the land-sea thermal contrast on the East Asian summer monsoon circulation and precipitation were examined, and then explored the impact factors on the LSI.
The main conclusions are as follows:
1. The middle-latitude Land-Sea thermal contrast Index (LSI) was defined and studied its variation.
An empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis to the ERA-40 reanalysis data of June-July-August (JJA) 500-hPa geopotential height over Asia to Pacific area (60o-180oE, 10°-80°N) during 1958-2000 was done. The leading mode reveals the main feature of opposite year-to-year variation in phase of every JJA atmospheric internal thermal conditions over the middle-latitude East Asian continent and over the adjacent marginal ocean. The difference of the 500 hPa geopotential height anomalies between the land area A (75°-90°E, 40°-55°N) and the oceanic area B (140°-150°E, 35-42.5°N) is regarded as a representative of the middle-to-lower troposphere atmospheric temperature or thermal contrast between the continent and the ocean. The difference is defined as a middle-latitude Land-Sea thermal contrast Index (LSI).
The LSI has significant interannual and interdecadal variability. There exists an abrupt climate change near 1978. The climatological mean of LSI before 1978 is obviously lower than that after 1978. The surging periods of LSI are 3years and 10 years. Its interannual variation is mainly attributed to the atmospheric thermal condition over the ocean,which has 3-5 year period; while the interdecadal variability is mainly attributed to the atmospheric thermal condition over the land, which has 10 years period.
2. The LSI has close connection to the East Asian summer precipitation.
The results show that large/small LSI is related to rich/poor summer precipitation in the middle-to-lower reaches of the Yangtze River,Korea,Japan and its eastern adjacent ocean at the same latitude and poor/rich precipitation in the South China Sea and tropical western Pacific,as well as poor/rich precipitation in North China and high-latitude northeast Asia,respectively. The pattern of correlation between LSI and precipitation resembles to the spatial distribution of the principle EOF mode of year-to-year precipitation variations. Furthermore,the variation of LSI is highly correlated to the time series of the first EOF mode of summer precipitation anomalies. This suggests that the middle-latitude land-sea thermal contrast is one of important factors to influence on the summer precipitation variations over the area from the whole East Asia to the western Pacific.
The physical mechanism of LSI impacting on the East Asian summer precipitation is also investigated. In high LSI summers,strong land-sea thermal contrast i.e. warm air over land and cold air over ocean causes anticyclonic anomalies over Asian middle-latitude inland centered in the eastern part of Kazakhstan and the northwestern part of China and a cyclonic anomalies over East Asian middle-latitude ocean near Japan and around ocean. At the same time,an anomalous anticyclone over the tropical region from South China Sea to the western Pacific also appears to match with the anomalous cyclone near Japan. This spatial pattern causes more-than-normal summer monsoon precipitation from the middle-to-lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley to Japan and west Pacific,and less-than-normal precipitation to its north and south sides i.e. the south China and the north China. The anticyclonic anomalies over Asian inner continent likely play an important role in strengthening the anomalous north wind in north China and also positively act on the maintenances of the anomalous cyclone over Japan. In addition,the anomalous cyclone over Japan adjacent Ocean possibly acts as a bridge connecting the high-latitude systems like blocking highs and the lower latitude systems like Asian summer monsoon.
3. The impact of the surface heat flux and atmospheric diabatic heating over the land and the ocean on the LSI.
The results show that the surface heat flux over Eurasian inner land has little influence to the land thermal index, while the variation of the surface latent heat flux and long-wave radiation over the Pacific adjacent to Japan has highly correlation with the ocean thermal index. The changes with height of the atmospheric diabatic heating rates over the Eurasian inner land and the Pacific adjacent to Japan have different features.
The variations of the middle troposphere atmospheric long-wave and short-wave radiation heating have significantly influences on land thermal index, and that of the low troposphere atmospheric long-wave radiation, short-wave radiation and deep convective heating also have impact on the yearly variation of the land thermal index. For the ocean thermal index, the variations of the surface layer atmospheric vertical diffuse heating, large-scale latent heating and long-wave radiation heating are more important, low and middle troposphere atmospheric large-scale latent heating and shallow convective heating also have impact on the yearly variation of the ocean thermal index. And then the ocean thermal index has closely connection with the low troposphere atmospheric temperature, while the land thermal index has closely connection with the middle troposphere atmospheric temperature.
4. Effect of the preceding global SST anomalies on the LSI.
The relations of land thermal index and ocean thermal index and the global SST anomalies in the preceding autumn, winter, spring and same summer are observed, the results show that the preceding SST anomalies in North Indian Ocean (50o-130oE,10oS-20oN) has closely relationship with the land thermal index, and the preceding SST anomalies in Northwest Pacific (140oE-180o,10oN-20oN) are highly positively correlated with ocean thermal index. Utilizing EOF analysis, we have discussed the spatial distribution of SSTA in preceding winter over North Pacific, and it is found that the variation of SSTA in the area located in Northwest Pacific could reflect the variation of SSTA in North Pacific. The spacial distribution of preceding SSTA in the high and low LSI year confirmed the important effect of these two areas.
The relationship of the preceding winter and spring SSTA in the area located in Northwest Pacific and the ocean thermal index, and that of the preceding winter and spring SSTA in the area located in North Indian Ocean and the land thermal index, reveal that the preceding winter and spring SSTA in these two areas could be used as forecasting factors of the LSI. The effect of the preceding winter SSTA in these two areas on the summer circulation in East Asian was also observed. The results show that, when the preceding winter SSTA in Northwest Pacific is warmer (colder), the anticyclonic (cyclonic) anomalies appears in summer over Japan and adjacent ocean; when the preceding winter SSTA in North Indian Ocean is warmer (colder), the anticyclonic (cyclonic) anomalies appears in summer over Kazakhstan area in Eurasian inner land.
5. The conceptual model of the preceding winter SST impacting on the summer circulation and precipitation in East Asian.
When the preceding winter SSTA in Northwest Pacific is warmer, the anticyclonic in summer over Japan and adjacent ocean, and the weak cyclonic anomalies appears over Kazakhstan area in Eurasian inner land; and at the same time the preceding winter SSTA in North Indian Ocean is always colder, then the cyclonic anomalies appears in summer over Kazakhstan area in Eurasian inner land. The anticyclonic in Japan and adjacent ocean and the cyclonic in Eurasian inner land make the difference of geopotential height between these two areas be significant, and the LSI is higher, and result in the rich summer precipitation in the middle-to-lower reaches of the Yangtze River,Korea,Japan and its eastern adjacent ocean at the same latitude and poor summer precipitation in the South China Sea and tropical western Pacific,as well as poor precipitation in North China and high-latitude northeast Asia.
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