大跨度连续刚构桥建设期风险分析研究
|
摘要
近年来，大跨度连续刚构桥得到了迅速的发展。随着结构的创新和跨径的增大，施工中各种不确定性因素显著增加，大跨度连续刚构桥工程建设正面临着前所未有的高风险，必须给予足够的重视，否则极易发生工程事故，危及结构、财产和生命安全。本文以大跨度连续刚构桥建设期间风险为主要研究对象，围绕以下几个方面展开研究：
1．对大跨度连续刚构桥梁建设期风险分析理论进行研究。阐述了风险的基本概念与风险分析的基本原理，给出风险的一般性定义，提出桥梁风险分析方法；在明确桥梁建设期结构风险的基础上，首先提出了大跨度连续刚构桥建设期风险分析理论。
2．针对目前桥梁结构的抗风评估方法关于不确定性参数只能粗略地考虑的现状，首次从风险的角度对在建大跨径刚构桥梁结构的抗风评价进行全面、系统的研究。提出了在建大跨连续刚构桥梁风荷载作用下发生抖振时的抗风风险评估方法；建立了结构在风荷载作用下损失评价模型及抗风风险接受准则，提出了该类桥梁的抗风风险应对策略。
3．首次提出了基于RBPNN网络的桥梁船撞风险概率模型，并编制了计算程序。以桥梁跨径、水流流速、水流方向与桥轴法线的夹角以及桥区航道弯曲度等船撞主要影响因素为参数，得出船撞事故的概率，建立RBPNN网络。以现有典型桥梁的基础数据为训练样本对RBPNN网络进行训练，得到了能很好地反映上述影响因素的桥梁船撞事故概率识别系统。提出了在建桥梁降低船撞风险的具体建议。
4．结合大跨连续刚构桥梁施工的特点，本文首次提出了一种基于有限元—RBPNN神经网络—蒙特卡罗模拟(F-R-M)的施工风险概率估计方法，对大跨连续刚构桥梁施工风险损失进行了系统、全面的研究。阐述了桥梁施工风险评价的基本原理；提出了风险评价模型的建模原则，建立了桥梁施工风险总体评价模型，提出了风险评价指标的制定原则，建立了以风险接受准则与风险等级评价标准为代表的桥梁施工风险评价指标体系，实现了大跨连续刚构桥施工风险多角度、全方位的综合评价。
5．在完成大跨连续刚构桥梁建设中的单目标风险评估研究后，本文尝试提出了一种新的桥梁建设多目标风险评估方法。通过对现有风险评估方法和决策原理的归纳和总结，建立了以灰色-层次综合分析法和ALARP决策准则为主线的大跨度桥梁建设多目标风险决策理论体系。并结合实桥北山大桥施工，研究了大跨连续刚构桥施工多目标风险的评估和决策问题。
6．论文提出了科学合理、综合全面的桥梁施工风险决策原则和决策指南，解决了如何选取最优的建设方案和最佳风险应对策略的问题，为风险决策者提供了重要的决策参考。
The remarkable development of long span continuous rigid-frame bridges has taken place in recent years. With the innovations of structures and the increase of the span length, all kinds of uncertainty have been arisen, and the engineering construction is faced with unprecedented high risk. The engineering accidents which endanger safety of structures, properties and people's lives, may take place if enough attention has not be paid. This dissertation focuses on the construction risk of long span continuous rigid-frame bridges, which includes the following aspects:
1.The theoretical skeleton is established. In this paper, the risk conception and its analysis principle are discussed. The definition of risk and the selection principle of risk analysis methods are put forward, and the theoretical skeleton of construction risk analysis for bridges is built firstly on the basis of giving definition of structure risks of bridges during construction.
2. Conventional methods of wind-resistant performance of bridges deal with uncertain parameters by simple means. The modern approach in assessing the wind-resistant performance of bridges is first to be investigated from the point of risk assessment. The system of risk assessment and analyses of buffeting when bridge structures under wind are built, and lost assessment model is also established. The principle of risk acceptance criteria is introduced, and the strategy and techniques of risk response of bridge structures under wind is also built.
3.In this paper, an approach of the systematic artificial neutral net was introduced into the analysis on the ship-against-bridges probability with a computer programs. Based on the basis data of the present typical bridges as the sample, chief influential factors as the input coefficient, such as the bridge span, the water flow rate, the incline angle between water flow direction and the direction normal to bridge axis, and the curve in the course near the bridge area, with the ship-against-bridge probability as the output coefficient, the intelligent judging system of the ship-against-bridges probability reflecting the influence of the above input parameters is obtained after training. So, a general framework for the risk analysis of the ship impact against bridges is set up. The specific suggestions to decreasing ship collisions on the bridge have been presented.
4. Due to the performance functions of long-span continuous rigid-frame bridges construction, a method, combining finite element methods and RBPNN neural network and Monte-Carlo simulation, is presented, which is called F-R-M. The principle of construction risk assessment for bridges is discussed. The principle for building a model of risk assessment is presented. The model of comprehensive risks assessment for bridges is built. The principle for establishing risk assessment indices is put forward. The construction risk assessment index system for bridges, which includes risk acceptance criteria and risk grade assessment standard, is built. This makes it possible to comprehensively assess construction risk of bridges in all round way
5. Basic bridge risk assessment approach, multi-objective bridge risk assessment method and public safety oriented bridge risk assessment investigated in detail after single objective bridge risk assessment. Compared with other risk assessment methods, multi-objective bridge risk assessment system based on AHP-GRAP and ALARP is built. Due to Bei Shan bridge, risk assessment and risk decision-making for long-span continuous rigid-frame bridges construction multi-objective bridge risk are studied
6. In this paper, the scientific, rational, synthetical and comprehensive guides are put forward. This makes how to select best construction project and optimum treatment strategies for construction risk of bridges possible, and provides important decision references to risks decision makers.
1．对大跨度连续刚构桥梁建设期风险分析理论进行研究。阐述了风险的基本概念与风险分析的基本原理，给出风险的一般性定义，提出桥梁风险分析方法；在明确桥梁建设期结构风险的基础上，首先提出了大跨度连续刚构桥建设期风险分析理论。
2．针对目前桥梁结构的抗风评估方法关于不确定性参数只能粗略地考虑的现状，首次从风险的角度对在建大跨径刚构桥梁结构的抗风评价进行全面、系统的研究。提出了在建大跨连续刚构桥梁风荷载作用下发生抖振时的抗风风险评估方法；建立了结构在风荷载作用下损失评价模型及抗风风险接受准则，提出了该类桥梁的抗风风险应对策略。
3．首次提出了基于RBPNN网络的桥梁船撞风险概率模型，并编制了计算程序。以桥梁跨径、水流流速、水流方向与桥轴法线的夹角以及桥区航道弯曲度等船撞主要影响因素为参数，得出船撞事故的概率，建立RBPNN网络。以现有典型桥梁的基础数据为训练样本对RBPNN网络进行训练，得到了能很好地反映上述影响因素的桥梁船撞事故概率识别系统。提出了在建桥梁降低船撞风险的具体建议。
4．结合大跨连续刚构桥梁施工的特点，本文首次提出了一种基于有限元—RBPNN神经网络—蒙特卡罗模拟(F-R-M)的施工风险概率估计方法，对大跨连续刚构桥梁施工风险损失进行了系统、全面的研究。阐述了桥梁施工风险评价的基本原理；提出了风险评价模型的建模原则，建立了桥梁施工风险总体评价模型，提出了风险评价指标的制定原则，建立了以风险接受准则与风险等级评价标准为代表的桥梁施工风险评价指标体系，实现了大跨连续刚构桥施工风险多角度、全方位的综合评价。
5．在完成大跨连续刚构桥梁建设中的单目标风险评估研究后，本文尝试提出了一种新的桥梁建设多目标风险评估方法。通过对现有风险评估方法和决策原理的归纳和总结，建立了以灰色-层次综合分析法和ALARP决策准则为主线的大跨度桥梁建设多目标风险决策理论体系。并结合实桥北山大桥施工，研究了大跨连续刚构桥施工多目标风险的评估和决策问题。
6．论文提出了科学合理、综合全面的桥梁施工风险决策原则和决策指南，解决了如何选取最优的建设方案和最佳风险应对策略的问题，为风险决策者提供了重要的决策参考。
The remarkable development of long span continuous rigid-frame bridges has taken place in recent years. With the innovations of structures and the increase of the span length, all kinds of uncertainty have been arisen, and the engineering construction is faced with unprecedented high risk. The engineering accidents which endanger safety of structures, properties and people's lives, may take place if enough attention has not be paid. This dissertation focuses on the construction risk of long span continuous rigid-frame bridges, which includes the following aspects:
1.The theoretical skeleton is established. In this paper, the risk conception and its analysis principle are discussed. The definition of risk and the selection principle of risk analysis methods are put forward, and the theoretical skeleton of construction risk analysis for bridges is built firstly on the basis of giving definition of structure risks of bridges during construction.
2. Conventional methods of wind-resistant performance of bridges deal with uncertain parameters by simple means. The modern approach in assessing the wind-resistant performance of bridges is first to be investigated from the point of risk assessment. The system of risk assessment and analyses of buffeting when bridge structures under wind are built, and lost assessment model is also established. The principle of risk acceptance criteria is introduced, and the strategy and techniques of risk response of bridge structures under wind is also built.
3.In this paper, an approach of the systematic artificial neutral net was introduced into the analysis on the ship-against-bridges probability with a computer programs. Based on the basis data of the present typical bridges as the sample, chief influential factors as the input coefficient, such as the bridge span, the water flow rate, the incline angle between water flow direction and the direction normal to bridge axis, and the curve in the course near the bridge area, with the ship-against-bridge probability as the output coefficient, the intelligent judging system of the ship-against-bridges probability reflecting the influence of the above input parameters is obtained after training. So, a general framework for the risk analysis of the ship impact against bridges is set up. The specific suggestions to decreasing ship collisions on the bridge have been presented.
4. Due to the performance functions of long-span continuous rigid-frame bridges construction, a method, combining finite element methods and RBPNN neural network and Monte-Carlo simulation, is presented, which is called F-R-M. The principle of construction risk assessment for bridges is discussed. The principle for building a model of risk assessment is presented. The model of comprehensive risks assessment for bridges is built. The principle for establishing risk assessment indices is put forward. The construction risk assessment index system for bridges, which includes risk acceptance criteria and risk grade assessment standard, is built. This makes it possible to comprehensively assess construction risk of bridges in all round way
5. Basic bridge risk assessment approach, multi-objective bridge risk assessment method and public safety oriented bridge risk assessment investigated in detail after single objective bridge risk assessment. Compared with other risk assessment methods, multi-objective bridge risk assessment system based on AHP-GRAP and ALARP is built. Due to Bei Shan bridge, risk assessment and risk decision-making for long-span continuous rigid-frame bridges construction multi-objective bridge risk are studied
6. In this paper, the scientific, rational, synthetical and comprehensive guides are put forward. This makes how to select best construction project and optimum treatment strategies for construction risk of bridges possible, and provides important decision references to risks decision makers.
引文
[1]马保林．高墩大跨连续刚构桥梁[M]．北京：人民交通出版社，2001．
[2]相其生．高墩大跨连续刚构桥稳定性研究[D]．长沙：长沙理工大学，2007．
[3]巩春领．大跨度斜拉桥施工风险分析与对策研究[D]．上海：同济大学，2006．
[4]梅亚东，谈广鸣．大坝防洪安全评价的风险标准水电能源科学，2002，20(4)：8 -10
[5]Ayyub B．M．，Chia C．Y．Generalized conditional expectation for structural reliability assessment[J]．Structural Safety，1992，11：131-146．
[6]Bryan A．，Rade H．，Eugen B．Comparison of hazard scenarios using probabilistic methods[A]．Safety，Risk Reliability-Trends in engineering[C]，Malta： IABSE，2001．
[7]Billington DP，Nazmy A．History and aesthetic of cable-stayed bridge[J]．Journal of Structural Engineering，1990，117(10)： 3103-3134．
[8]Bottelberghs PH．Risk analysis and safety policy developments in the Netherlands[J]．Journal of Hazardous Materials，2000，71(1-3)： 59-84．
[9]Baecher G B，Ingra T S．Stochastic FEM in setlement predictions[J]．Geolech．Engng．，1981，10：49-63．
[10]Andrzej S．N．，Ahmed S．Y A Reliability analysis for girder bridges[J]．Structural Engineering Review，1995，7(3)： 251-256．
[11]Cooper S．E．，RameySmith A．M．，reathall J．W，et al．A Technique for Human Error Analysis (ATHEANA)．NUREG/CR-6350，1996．48-51
[12]Ernst H．J．Der E-Modul von Seilen unter Beruchsichtigun des Durchanges[J]，Der Bauingeniear．1965，40 (2)．66-72．
[13]FaberM．H．Risk and safety in civil engineering[M]．Swiss Federal Institute of Technology，Switzerland，2001．69-117．
[14]American Coal Ash Association International．Soil and Pavement Base Stabilization with Self-Cementing Coal Fly Ash[J]．Alexandria．Virginia．May 1999： 732-735．
[15]Homik，K．，Stinchcombe，M．，and White，H．Universal Approximation of an Unknown Mapping and Its Derivatives Using Multi-layer Feed-forward Networks[J]．Neural Networks．1990，(3)：551-560
[16]Hornik，K．，Stinchcombe，M．，White，H，and Auer，P Degree of approximation results for feed-forward networks approximating unknown mapping and their derivative[J]．Neural Computation，1994，(6)：1262-1275
[17]Hunter A．Featwe selection using probabilistic newal networks[J]．Newal Computing&Applications，2000，9： 124-132
[18]Hwst N．W．Risk Assessment： the Human Dimension[M]．Cambridge： The Royal Society of Chemistry，1998．
[19]丁泉顺．大跨度桥梁耦合颤抖振响应的精细化分析[D]．上海：同济大学，2001
[20]曾宪武，韩大建．大跨桥梁风致抖振时域分析及在ANSYS中的实现[J]．桥梁建设 2004，(1)： 9-12
[21]卢伟．大跨度斜拉桥抖振动力可靠性分析[D]．成都：西南交通大学，2000．
[22]Deng J，Gu DS，Li XB and Yue ZQ．Srtuctural reliability analysis for implicit performance functionsusing artificial neural network[J]．Strucural Safety，2005，27：25-48．
[23]刘志文．缆索承重桥梁的抗风风险评估[D]．上海：同济大学，2004．
[24]周述华．大跨度悬索桥空间非线性抖振响应仿真分析[D]．成都：西南交通大学，1993．
[25]Dimopoulos，Ioannis，J．Chronopoulos，A．Chronopoulou-Sereli，and Sovan Lek．Neural network models to study relations between lead concentration in grasses and permanent urban descriptors inAthens city(Greece)[J]．Ecological Modelling，1999，120：157-165．
[26]Du J．S．，Au F．T．K．Deterministic and reliability analysis of prestressed concrete bridge girders：comparison of the Chinese，Hong Kong and AASHTO LRFD Codes[J]．Structural Safety，2005，27：230-245．
[27]罗雄．利用短期实际风速记录模拟极值风速及桥梁时域抖振分析[D]．成都：西南交通大学，2002
[28]黄艳，江宜城，李黎．澳门—幽仔第三桥的斜拉桥风载动力特性分析[J]．中国市政工程，2003，(5)： 44-46
[29]李明水．连续大气湍流中大跨度桥梁的抖振响应[D]．成都：西南交通大学，1993．
[30]Carpenter G．，and Grossberg S．Fuzzy ART： Fast Stable Learning and Categorization of Analog Patters by an Adaptive Resonance System[J]．Neural Networks，1991，3(2)： 759-771．
[31]Bucher C．G．．Adaptive sampling an iterative fast Monte-Carlo procedure[J]．Structural Safety，1988，5： 119-126．
[32]Chang FK，Cohen E．Long-span bridges： state-of-art[J]．Journal of Structural Engineering，1981，107(7)：1145-1160．
[33]American Coal Ash Association International．Soil and Pavement Base Stabilization with Self-Cementing Coal Fly Ash[J]．Alexandria．Virginia．May 1999： 732-735
[34]Bergeson．K．L．Iowa Fly Ash Affiliates Research Program[J]．Annual Report．ISU-ERI Ames 99501．Iowa State University，Ames，December 1998： 875-882
[35]苏成，韩大建，颜全胜，等．大跨度桥梁风场模拟及气动力计算[J]．华南理工大学学报(自然科学版)，1999，27(11)： 36-43
[36]Deyle R．E．，French S．l'．Olshansky R．B．and Paterson R．G．Hazard assessment： the factual basis forplanning and mitigation[A]．In： R．J．Burby(ed)，cooperating with Nature： Confronting NaturalHazards with land-Use Planning for Sustainable Communities[C]，Washingtong，D．C．： JosephHenty Press，1998：119-166．
[37]Endo T，Iijima T，Okukawa A．The Technical Challenge of a Long Cable-stayed Bridge—TataraBridge[A]．edited by Ito M．Proceedings of the seminar，Cable-stayed bridges—Recent developmentsand their future[C]．New York： ELSEVIER，1991．417-436．
[38]邹小江．斜拉桥风振响应时域分析及静风稳定性研究[D]．广州：华南理工大学，2003．
[39]曾宪武，韩大建．大跨度桥梁风场模拟方法对比研究[J]．地震工程与工程振动，2004，24(1)： 135-140
[40]A．L．A．Fraay，J．M．Bijen and Y．M．de Haan(1989)．The reaction of fly ash in concrete[J]．A critical examination．Cement and Concrete Research．Vol．19：235-246
[41]Fraczek J．ACI survey of concrete structural errors[J]．Concrete Int．ACI，1979．
[42]Crane F．G．Insurance Principles and Practices[M]．New York：Willey，1984．4-59
[43]戴彤宇．船撞桥及其风险分析[D]．哈尔滨：哈尔滨工程大学，2002．
[44]交通部规划司．全国内河航运发展战略[M]．交通部．2001．
[45]中华人民共和国建设部．内河通航标准[S]．GB 50139-2004．2004
[46]交通部规划司．全国交通统计资料摘要[M]．交通部．2001．
[47]高隽．人工神经网络原理及仿真实例[M]．北京：机械工业出版社，2003．
[48]H．Gluver．and D．Olsen．船撞桥风险分析的当今惯例[M]．1 ABSE年会．丹麦．1998
[49]S．E．Manen and A．GFrandsen．船舶碰撞事故评述[J]．船撞桥论文选．上海海洋钢结构研究所．2000： 25-32
[50]岑慧贤，房怀阳，吴群河．可接受风险的方法探讨．重庆环境科学．2000．6 18- 19
[51]管海梅．基于BP-人工神经网络的响应面法可靠度分析及其应用[M]．天津：天津大学，1999：157-163
[52]M．AbdEl．Aziz，S．Abd El．Aleem，M．Heikal，H．El．Didmaony．Hydration and durability of sulphate-resisting and slag cement blends in Caron's Lake water[J]．Cement and concrete Research，2005．35(8)：1592-1600
[53]Gray，D．H．，Tons，E．，and Thiruvengadam，T．R．Performance evaluation of a cement-stabilizedfly ash base[J]，Transportation Research Record，Transportation Research Board，Washington，D．C．1994 (1440)： 8-15
[54]李坚．上海黄蒲江奉浦大桥水上安全防护系统设计[J]．中国市政工程．1994，67(4)：26-30．
[55]陈泽宏．船舶对大桥桥墩的撞击及其参数测试的初步研究[D]．南京理工大学硕士学位论文．1995
[56]肖荣清等．“液体稳压柔性消能”桥墩防撞设施试验研究[J]．武汉水利电力大学学报．1997，30(4)： 66-69
[57]曾克俭．桥墩防撞设施研究及其应用综述[J]．中南公路工程．1997，22 (1)： 34-38
[58]徐言民．桥区引航中对安全航速的控制探讨[J]．水运科技信息．1998．3 38-43
[59]杨家祥等．桥墩碰撞力的计算[J]．交通部上海船舶运输科学研究所学报 ．1994，17(2)： 23-29
[60]史德亮．桥墩绕流流场德试验研究[D]．武汉水利电力大学硕士学位论文．1994
[61]王会博，周建强．浅论船舶碰撞南京长江大桥事故原因及防范[J]．内河航政．1996，(3)： 9-11．
[62]杨渡军．桥梁的防撞保护系统及其设计[M]．人民交通出版社．1990．149-160
[63]黄志．台湾海峡船舶碰撞事故分析与研究[J]．航海技术．2005，4
[64]Knott，M．A．and Bonyun，D．Ship Collision Against the Sunshine Skyway Bridge[J]．IABSE Colloquium on Ship Collision with Bridges and Offshore Structures，Copenhagen．1983： 49-52
[65]林铁良，王君杰等，基于事故记录的船撞桥故障树建立[J]．同济大学学报(自然科学版)。2006．4(34)．467-471
[66]赵劲松．船一桥碰撞与南京长江大桥的防碰问题[J]．大连海运学院学报．1992，18(1)： 77-81
[67]辛文杰．珠海伶仃洋大桥通航问题工程潮流计算[J]．第八届全国海岸工程学术讨论会．1997： 355-385
[68]Maunsell and Partners and Brady，P．J．E．Second Hobart Bridge-Risk of Ship Collision and Methods of Protection[J]．Technical Report Prepared for Department of Main Roads，Tasmania，Australia，1978： 61-64
[69]王自力，顾永宁，朱安庆．集装箱双层舷侧结构的碰撞模拟[J]．华东船舶工业学院学报．2000，14(4)： 29-34
[70]武汉理工大学．苏通大桥船舶失控漂移对桥梁的影响研究报告[J]．2003
[71]曹映乱．概率论原理在特大桥梁船舶撞击力计算中的应用．第十七届全国桥梁学术会议论文集．2006．1157-1165
[72]Ship Collision due to the Presence of Bridges[J]．Report of Working Group of the INLAND NAVIGATION COMMISSION．2001：145-149
[73]P．T．Pedersen，S．Zhang．The Mechanics of Ship Impacts against Bridge．Proceedings of Int．symposium advances on ship collision analysis[J]．Copenhagen： 1998，(1)： 41-52．
[74]韩力群．人工神经网络教程[M]．北京：北京邮电大学出版社，2006．12：57-169
[75]交通部长江航务管理局．长江桥梁船闸与通航[M]．长江出版社，2005，10
[76]M．A．Knott．美国的防撞设计规范和设计经验[J]．IABSE年会．丹麦．1998
[77]V．U．Minorsky．An Analysis of Ship Collisions With Reference to Protectionof Nuclear Power Plants[J]．Journal of Ship Research．1959，October： P 1-4
[78]戴彤宇，聂武．船撞桥事故综述[J]．黑龙江交通科技，2003，No．2： 1-3
[79]陈国虞，王礼立等．船撞桥及其防御[M]．北京：中国铁道出版社．2006
[80]刘怀汉等．内河跨河建筑物通航净空尺度与技术要求专题研究报告[J]．长江航道规划设计研究院．2001．
[81]秦炳军．复杂系统概率风险评估基础性研究[D]．上海：上海交通大学，1998．
[82]洪燕峰等．环境风险预警评估方法研究[J]．重庆环境科学．1999 21 (2)：18-20
[83]GB/T50283-1999．公路工程结构可靠度设计统一标准[S]．北京：中国计划出版社，1999．
[84]GB50216-1994．铁路工程结构可靠度设计统一标准[[S]．北京：中国计划出版社，1994．
[85]GB50153-1992．工程结构可靠度设计统一标准[S]．北京：中国计划出版社，1992．
[86]GB50068-2001．建筑结构可靠度设计统一标准[S]．北京：中国建筑工业出版社，2001．
[87]Kam T．Y Large Deflection Analysis of Inelastic Plane Frames[J]．Journal of Structural Engineering．1988，114(1)： 184-197．
[88]Bucher C．G．and Bourgund U．A fast and efficient response surface approach for structural reliability problems[J]．Structural Safety，1990 7(1)：57-66．
[89]Carroll，John M．Simulation Using Personal Computers[M]．New Jersey： Prentice Hall． 1987： 43-46．
[90]Hadipuiono F．C．，Diaz，C．F．，Trends in recent construction and structural failures in the United States[J]．Foren．Eng．1988，Vol．1(4)： 227-232
[91]Hakan F．，Fredtik N．，Risk Concepts in Fire Safety Design．Safety，Risk，Reliability-Trends in engineering[J]．Malta： 1ABSE，2001：89-94
[92]Hansjorg S．，Andn-as F．B．，Law and technical risk： risk based regulation： practical experience．Safety，Risk，Reliability—Trends in engineering[J]．Malta： IABSE，2001：15-22
[93]JTG D62-2004．公路钢筋混凝土及预应力混凝土桥涵设计规范[S]．人民交通出版社，2004．
[94]JTG D60-2004．路桥涵设计通用规范[S]．人民交通出版社，2004．
[95]JTJ041-2000．公路桥涵施工技术规范[S]．人民交通出版社，2002．
[96]Guan X．L．Melchers R．E．Multitangent-plane Surface Method for reliability calculation[J]．Journal of Engineering Mechanics．1997 123(10)：996-1002
[97]方再根．计算机模拟和蒙特卡罗方法[M]．北京：北京工业学院出版社，1988．
[98]张圣坤，白勇，唐文勇．船舶与海洋工程风险评估[M]．北京：国防工业出版社．2003，26-27
[99]方正泰，许建伦．统计分布[M]．统计出版社，1996．
[100]Hadipriono F．C．Analysis of events in recent structural failwe[J]．Journal of Structural Engineering，1985，111(7)：18-23
[101]高大启．有教师的线性基本函数前向三层神经网络结构研究[[J]．计算机学报，1998，21(1)：80-85
[102]高佳，黄祥瑞，沈祖培．人的可靠性分析：需要、状况和进展[J]．中南工学院学报，1999，13(2)：11-25
[103]童继平，韩正妹．蒙特卡罗方法与计算机模拟研究[J]．计算机与农业，2000(7)： 17-21
[105]傅征样，李革平．地震生命损失研究[M]．北京：地震出版社，1993．
[106]Haldar A，Mahadewan S．Reliability assessment using stochastic finite element analysis[M]．NewYork： John Wiley and Sons，Inc，2000．
[107]陈建阳等．大跨度桥梁施工控制中的神经网络方法[J]．桥梁建设，2001，6：42-46
[108]邓建，朱合华．基于神经网络的岩土工程结构随机有限元分析[J]．同济大学学报，2002，30(3)：269-272．
[109]仇付国．城市污水再生利用健康风险评价[D]．西安：西安建筑科技大学，2004．
[110]丛爽．神经网络、模糊系统及其在运动控制中的应用[M]．合肥：中国科学技术大学出版社，2001．
[111]陈宜桂，史铁林．BP网络的全局最优化学习算法[J]．计算机科学，1996(1)： 73-75
[112]邓建．地下结构可靠度理论与应用研究[D]．上海：同济大学，2002．
[113]邓铁军．工程风险管理[M]．北京：人民交通出版社，2004．
[114]Joanne Hill and John H．Sharp．Encapsulation of Sn(ll) and Sn(IV) Chlorides in Composite Cements[J]．J．Am．Ccram．Soc．(2005) 88(3) ：560-565
[115]Handa，K．，and Andersson，K．Application of finite eminent methods in the statistical analysis ofstructwes[A]．Proceedings of ICOSSAR'81，the 3rd International Conference on Structural Safetyand Reliability[C]，Moan&Shinazuka (eds)，1981．400-417．
[116]Hannaman G．W．，Spurgin A．J．，Lukic Y．Human Cognitive Reliability Model for PRA Analysis[J]．NUS-4531，1985：91-97
[117]阮欣．桥梁工程风险评估体系及关键问题研究[D]．上海：同济大学，2006．
[118]Friss H．P，Ditlevsen ．Nature preservation acceptance model applied to tanker oil spill simulations．Structural Safety，2003，25(1)： 1-34．
[119]Gimsing NJ．Cable supported bridges[M]．and Ed．Chichester： John Wiley，1997．110-164
[120]Gimsing NJ．History of cable-stayed bridges[A]．IABSE Conference on Cable-Stayed Bridges-Past，Present and Future[C]，Malm，Sweden，1999： 8-24
[121]Kumalasari Wardbana，Hadipriono F．C．，Analysis of recent bridge failures in the United States[J]．Journal of Performance of Constructed Facilities．2003，Vol．17(3)：151-158
[122]Matousek M．，Schneider J．Untersuchurrgea zur Strukturdes Sicherheitsproblem bei Bauwkea[J]．Institute Stank and Baukonstruktion，der ETH Ziyri Bericht No．59，ETH Zihich： 1976： 81-83
[123]Menzies J．B．，Bridge failures，hazards and societal risk[J]．Safety of Bridge，Thomas Telford．1997： 36-41
[124]Hugh H．，Bridge life cycle cost analysis，NCHRP report[J]．Transportation research board of the national academes，2003：67-79
[125]IUGS．Quantitative risk assessment for slopes and landslides-the state of the art，In[J]： Cruder&Fell (eds)．Land risk assessment Balkema，Rottadam，1997：67-81
[126]Kapaln S．The words of risk analysis[J]．Risk analysis，Vol．17，1997：29-33
[127]Hank，I．E．，Shaaban，A．M，Gesimd，H，Valli，ect．，United States bridge failures，1951-1988[J]．Journal ofPerformance of Constructed Facilities．1990，Vol．4： 272-277
[128]Hilton，M．H，Some Case Studies of Highway Bridges Involved in Accidents[J]．Highway Research Record： 1973： 41-51
[129]Hovden J．，Public policy and administration in a vulneaable society： regulatory reforms initiated by a Norwegian conmussion[J]，Joutnal of Risk Research Vol．7：629-641
[130]Klaus H．Ostenfeld&Allan Larsen，Bridge engineering and aerodynamics[J]．Bridge Aerodynamics，Larsen&Esdahl (eds)，Ball．a，Rotterdam，1998： 570-573
[131]岳超源．决策理论与方法[M]．北京：科学出版社，2004．
[132]Krone R M System analysis and policy science[M]．New York ：Jove Wrley&Sons．1980：186-198
[133]余子华．工程保险费率相关影响因素的分析[J]．浙江建筑，2003，Vol．(4)：47-49
[134]Kriemidjian A．S．，Pachakisa D．Method for Seismic Risk Assessment of Prot Facilities[J]．Safety，Risk，Reliability-Trends in engineering．Malta： IABSE，2001：95-100
[135]张风华．大型建设工程及城市风险评价与保险研究[D]．上海：同济大学，2004．
[136]Nathwani J．S．，Lind N．C．，Pandey M．D．，Affordable safety by choice[J]．Institute for risk research，Cananda：ISBN 0-9696747-9-1，1997：99-105
[137]张建斌，张楠楠．我国工程风险管理与工程保险制度研究[J]．基建优化，2003，Vol．24(4)：20-23
[138]Nowak A．S．，NCHRP report 368： Calibration of LRFD beidge design code[J]．Transportation research board of national academies： Washington DC，1999：64-67
[139]张凌，陈阶亮．风险管理与保险在钱江四桥工程中的应用[J]．桥梁建设，2002(1)：69-70
[140]Niels L．，Social and economic criteria of acceptable risk[J]．Reliability engineering and safety safety，2002，Vol．78：21-25
[141]Niels PH．，Risk and safety considerations at different project phase[J]．Safety，risk，reliability-trends in engineering： processding．IABSE synyosium Malta．2001：104-110
[142]张建斌，张楠楠．我国工程风险管理与工程担保制度探析[J]．经济观察，2002(12)：7-8
[143]Olivier S．，Didier C，Risk assessment and risk decision-making process related to hazardous installation in France[J]．Journal of Risk Research Hugh H．，Bridge life cycle cost analysis，NCHRP report 483．Transportation research board of the national academes，2003：87-93
[144]方开泰．均匀设计与均匀设计表[M]．科学出版社，1994．
[145]Herbert M．G．，Armando M．A．Comparison of response surface and newal network with othermethod for structwal reliability analysis[J]．Structural Safety，2004，26： 49-67．
[146]Hideyuki KITA．A fault tree construction method using ship collision reports[A]．Safety，Risk Reliability-Trends in engineering[C]，Malta： IABSE，2001．
[147]方向．核电厂操作人员可靠性研究[J]．北京：清华大学核能技术设计院，1999： 16-21
[148]Hisada T，Nakagiri S．Role of the stochastic finite element method in structural safety andreliability[A]．Proc．4th Int Conf： on Struct．Safety and Reliability Kobe[C]，Japan，1985，213-219
[149]Hollnagel E．Cognitive Reliability and Error Analysis Method{M}．Elsevier Science Ltd，1998；26-54
[150]涂燕宁，肖焕雄．水电工程发电效益风险分析的研究[J]．水能源科学，1999，17(4)： 39-42
[151]Holinagel E．Reliability analysis and operator modeling[J]．Reliability Engineering and System Safety，1996，52： 327-337
[152]Hollnagel E．The reliability of man-machine interaction[J]．Reliability Engineering and System safety，1992，38： 81-89
[153]Honshu-Shikoku Bridge Authority．The Tatara bridge—design and construction technology for theworld's longest cable-stayed bridge[M]，JAPAN，1999．
[154]Hopfield J．J．Neural Networks and physical Systems with Emergent Collective Computational Abilities[J]．Proc．Nail．Acad．Sci，1982，79： 2554-2558
[155]Choi M Y and Kwon I B．Damage detection system of a real steel truss bridge by neuralnetworks[A]．Smart Structures and Material 2000： Smart Systems for Bridges，Structures and Highways[C]．2000，3988： 295-306．
[156]Dendrou B．A．，Houstis F．N．An．Inference finite element model for field applications．Applied Mathemation Modeling[J]，Guildfrod．England，1978，1：49-55．
[157]Aly N．History and Aesthetics of Cable-Stayed Bridges[J]．Journal of Structural Engineering．1990，117(19)： 3103-3134．
[158]Dan F．M．，ICiyohiro Ⅰ．Geometrically nonlinear finite element reliability analysis of structural systems，Ⅱ：Applications[J]．Computers and Strucures，2000，77：693-709．
[159]R．C．Joshi and V．M．Malhotra．Relationship Between Pozzolanic Activity and Chemical and Physical of Selected Canadian Fly Ashes[J]．Materials Research Society Symposia Proceedings，1997(86)：91-97
[160]Jan E．V Offshore Risk Assessment．Principles，Modelling and Application of QRA Studies[M]，Kluwer Academic Publishiers，1999．
[161]张圣坤，白勇，唐文勇．船舶于海洋工程风险评估[M]．北京：国防工业出版社，2003．
[162]IMO，Formal Safety Assessment，Decision parameters including risk acceptance criteria[J]，MSC，2000：728-734
[163]张相庭．高层建筑抗风抗展设计计算[M]．上海：同济大学出版社，1997．
[164]Kim S．H．，Na S．W．Response surface method using vector projected sampling Points[J]．Structural Safety，1997，19(1)： 3-9
[165]赵传君．风险经济学[M]．哈尔滨：黑龙江教育出版社，1985．
[166]王建群．水利建设项目不确定型经济评价方法研究[J]．水利经济，1996(2) ： 26-31
[167]KimAT．V．Structural reliability of concrete bridges including improved chloride-induced corrosion models[J]．Structural Safety，2000，22： 313-333
[168]王建群，基于经济性和可靠性的多目标风险型决策方法[J]．河海大学学报，1995，23(2) 18-22
[169]涂燕宁．水电工程投资与效益的风险分析及决策[D]．武汉：武汉水利电力大学，1998．
[170]Kirwan B．The validation of three human reliability quantification techniques-THERP，HEART andJHEDI： PartI-technique description and validation issues[J]．Applied Ergonomics，1996，27(6)：359-373
[2]相其生．高墩大跨连续刚构桥稳定性研究[D]．长沙：长沙理工大学，2007．
[3]巩春领．大跨度斜拉桥施工风险分析与对策研究[D]．上海：同济大学，2006．
[4]梅亚东，谈广鸣．大坝防洪安全评价的风险标准水电能源科学，2002，20(4)：8 -10
[5]Ayyub B．M．，Chia C．Y．Generalized conditional expectation for structural reliability assessment[J]．Structural Safety，1992，11：131-146．
[6]Bryan A．，Rade H．，Eugen B．Comparison of hazard scenarios using probabilistic methods[A]．Safety，Risk Reliability-Trends in engineering[C]，Malta： IABSE，2001．
[7]Billington DP，Nazmy A．History and aesthetic of cable-stayed bridge[J]．Journal of Structural Engineering，1990，117(10)： 3103-3134．
[8]Bottelberghs PH．Risk analysis and safety policy developments in the Netherlands[J]．Journal of Hazardous Materials，2000，71(1-3)： 59-84．
[9]Baecher G B，Ingra T S．Stochastic FEM in setlement predictions[J]．Geolech．Engng．，1981，10：49-63．
[10]Andrzej S．N．，Ahmed S．Y A Reliability analysis for girder bridges[J]．Structural Engineering Review，1995，7(3)： 251-256．
[11]Cooper S．E．，RameySmith A．M．，reathall J．W，et al．A Technique for Human Error Analysis (ATHEANA)．NUREG/CR-6350，1996．48-51
[12]Ernst H．J．Der E-Modul von Seilen unter Beruchsichtigun des Durchanges[J]，Der Bauingeniear．1965，40 (2)．66-72．
[13]FaberM．H．Risk and safety in civil engineering[M]．Swiss Federal Institute of Technology，Switzerland，2001．69-117．
[14]American Coal Ash Association International．Soil and Pavement Base Stabilization with Self-Cementing Coal Fly Ash[J]．Alexandria．Virginia．May 1999： 732-735．
[15]Homik，K．，Stinchcombe，M．，and White，H．Universal Approximation of an Unknown Mapping and Its Derivatives Using Multi-layer Feed-forward Networks[J]．Neural Networks．1990，(3)：551-560
[16]Hornik，K．，Stinchcombe，M．，White，H，and Auer，P Degree of approximation results for feed-forward networks approximating unknown mapping and their derivative[J]．Neural Computation，1994，(6)：1262-1275
[17]Hunter A．Featwe selection using probabilistic newal networks[J]．Newal Computing&Applications，2000，9： 124-132
[18]Hwst N．W．Risk Assessment： the Human Dimension[M]．Cambridge： The Royal Society of Chemistry，1998．
[19]丁泉顺．大跨度桥梁耦合颤抖振响应的精细化分析[D]．上海：同济大学，2001
[20]曾宪武，韩大建．大跨桥梁风致抖振时域分析及在ANSYS中的实现[J]．桥梁建设 2004，(1)： 9-12
[21]卢伟．大跨度斜拉桥抖振动力可靠性分析[D]．成都：西南交通大学，2000．
[22]Deng J，Gu DS，Li XB and Yue ZQ．Srtuctural reliability analysis for implicit performance functionsusing artificial neural network[J]．Strucural Safety，2005，27：25-48．
[23]刘志文．缆索承重桥梁的抗风风险评估[D]．上海：同济大学，2004．
[24]周述华．大跨度悬索桥空间非线性抖振响应仿真分析[D]．成都：西南交通大学，1993．
[25]Dimopoulos，Ioannis，J．Chronopoulos，A．Chronopoulou-Sereli，and Sovan Lek．Neural network models to study relations between lead concentration in grasses and permanent urban descriptors inAthens city(Greece)[J]．Ecological Modelling，1999，120：157-165．
[26]Du J．S．，Au F．T．K．Deterministic and reliability analysis of prestressed concrete bridge girders：comparison of the Chinese，Hong Kong and AASHTO LRFD Codes[J]．Structural Safety，2005，27：230-245．
[27]罗雄．利用短期实际风速记录模拟极值风速及桥梁时域抖振分析[D]．成都：西南交通大学，2002
[28]黄艳，江宜城，李黎．澳门—幽仔第三桥的斜拉桥风载动力特性分析[J]．中国市政工程，2003，(5)： 44-46
[29]李明水．连续大气湍流中大跨度桥梁的抖振响应[D]．成都：西南交通大学，1993．
[30]Carpenter G．，and Grossberg S．Fuzzy ART： Fast Stable Learning and Categorization of Analog Patters by an Adaptive Resonance System[J]．Neural Networks，1991，3(2)： 759-771．
[31]Bucher C．G．．Adaptive sampling an iterative fast Monte-Carlo procedure[J]．Structural Safety，1988，5： 119-126．
[32]Chang FK，Cohen E．Long-span bridges： state-of-art[J]．Journal of Structural Engineering，1981，107(7)：1145-1160．
[33]American Coal Ash Association International．Soil and Pavement Base Stabilization with Self-Cementing Coal Fly Ash[J]．Alexandria．Virginia．May 1999： 732-735
[34]Bergeson．K．L．Iowa Fly Ash Affiliates Research Program[J]．Annual Report．ISU-ERI Ames 99501．Iowa State University，Ames，December 1998： 875-882
[35]苏成，韩大建，颜全胜，等．大跨度桥梁风场模拟及气动力计算[J]．华南理工大学学报(自然科学版)，1999，27(11)： 36-43
[36]Deyle R．E．，French S．l'．Olshansky R．B．and Paterson R．G．Hazard assessment： the factual basis forplanning and mitigation[A]．In： R．J．Burby(ed)，cooperating with Nature： Confronting NaturalHazards with land-Use Planning for Sustainable Communities[C]，Washingtong，D．C．： JosephHenty Press，1998：119-166．
[37]Endo T，Iijima T，Okukawa A．The Technical Challenge of a Long Cable-stayed Bridge—TataraBridge[A]．edited by Ito M．Proceedings of the seminar，Cable-stayed bridges—Recent developmentsand their future[C]．New York： ELSEVIER，1991．417-436．
[38]邹小江．斜拉桥风振响应时域分析及静风稳定性研究[D]．广州：华南理工大学，2003．
[39]曾宪武，韩大建．大跨度桥梁风场模拟方法对比研究[J]．地震工程与工程振动，2004，24(1)： 135-140
[40]A．L．A．Fraay，J．M．Bijen and Y．M．de Haan(1989)．The reaction of fly ash in concrete[J]．A critical examination．Cement and Concrete Research．Vol．19：235-246
[41]Fraczek J．ACI survey of concrete structural errors[J]．Concrete Int．ACI，1979．
[42]Crane F．G．Insurance Principles and Practices[M]．New York：Willey，1984．4-59
[43]戴彤宇．船撞桥及其风险分析[D]．哈尔滨：哈尔滨工程大学，2002．
[44]交通部规划司．全国内河航运发展战略[M]．交通部．2001．
[45]中华人民共和国建设部．内河通航标准[S]．GB 50139-2004．2004
[46]交通部规划司．全国交通统计资料摘要[M]．交通部．2001．
[47]高隽．人工神经网络原理及仿真实例[M]．北京：机械工业出版社，2003．
[48]H．Gluver．and D．Olsen．船撞桥风险分析的当今惯例[M]．1 ABSE年会．丹麦．1998
[49]S．E．Manen and A．GFrandsen．船舶碰撞事故评述[J]．船撞桥论文选．上海海洋钢结构研究所．2000： 25-32
[50]岑慧贤，房怀阳，吴群河．可接受风险的方法探讨．重庆环境科学．2000．6 18- 19
[51]管海梅．基于BP-人工神经网络的响应面法可靠度分析及其应用[M]．天津：天津大学，1999：157-163
[52]M．AbdEl．Aziz，S．Abd El．Aleem，M．Heikal，H．El．Didmaony．Hydration and durability of sulphate-resisting and slag cement blends in Caron's Lake water[J]．Cement and concrete Research，2005．35(8)：1592-1600
[53]Gray，D．H．，Tons，E．，and Thiruvengadam，T．R．Performance evaluation of a cement-stabilizedfly ash base[J]，Transportation Research Record，Transportation Research Board，Washington，D．C．1994 (1440)： 8-15
[54]李坚．上海黄蒲江奉浦大桥水上安全防护系统设计[J]．中国市政工程．1994，67(4)：26-30．
[55]陈泽宏．船舶对大桥桥墩的撞击及其参数测试的初步研究[D]．南京理工大学硕士学位论文．1995
[56]肖荣清等．“液体稳压柔性消能”桥墩防撞设施试验研究[J]．武汉水利电力大学学报．1997，30(4)： 66-69
[57]曾克俭．桥墩防撞设施研究及其应用综述[J]．中南公路工程．1997，22 (1)： 34-38
[58]徐言民．桥区引航中对安全航速的控制探讨[J]．水运科技信息．1998．3 38-43
[59]杨家祥等．桥墩碰撞力的计算[J]．交通部上海船舶运输科学研究所学报 ．1994，17(2)： 23-29
[60]史德亮．桥墩绕流流场德试验研究[D]．武汉水利电力大学硕士学位论文．1994
[61]王会博，周建强．浅论船舶碰撞南京长江大桥事故原因及防范[J]．内河航政．1996，(3)： 9-11．
[62]杨渡军．桥梁的防撞保护系统及其设计[M]．人民交通出版社．1990．149-160
[63]黄志．台湾海峡船舶碰撞事故分析与研究[J]．航海技术．2005，4
[64]Knott，M．A．and Bonyun，D．Ship Collision Against the Sunshine Skyway Bridge[J]．IABSE Colloquium on Ship Collision with Bridges and Offshore Structures，Copenhagen．1983： 49-52
[65]林铁良，王君杰等，基于事故记录的船撞桥故障树建立[J]．同济大学学报(自然科学版)。2006．4(34)．467-471
[66]赵劲松．船一桥碰撞与南京长江大桥的防碰问题[J]．大连海运学院学报．1992，18(1)： 77-81
[67]辛文杰．珠海伶仃洋大桥通航问题工程潮流计算[J]．第八届全国海岸工程学术讨论会．1997： 355-385
[68]Maunsell and Partners and Brady，P．J．E．Second Hobart Bridge-Risk of Ship Collision and Methods of Protection[J]．Technical Report Prepared for Department of Main Roads，Tasmania，Australia，1978： 61-64
[69]王自力，顾永宁，朱安庆．集装箱双层舷侧结构的碰撞模拟[J]．华东船舶工业学院学报．2000，14(4)： 29-34
[70]武汉理工大学．苏通大桥船舶失控漂移对桥梁的影响研究报告[J]．2003
[71]曹映乱．概率论原理在特大桥梁船舶撞击力计算中的应用．第十七届全国桥梁学术会议论文集．2006．1157-1165
[72]Ship Collision due to the Presence of Bridges[J]．Report of Working Group of the INLAND NAVIGATION COMMISSION．2001：145-149
[73]P．T．Pedersen，S．Zhang．The Mechanics of Ship Impacts against Bridge．Proceedings of Int．symposium advances on ship collision analysis[J]．Copenhagen： 1998，(1)： 41-52．
[74]韩力群．人工神经网络教程[M]．北京：北京邮电大学出版社，2006．12：57-169
[75]交通部长江航务管理局．长江桥梁船闸与通航[M]．长江出版社，2005，10
[76]M．A．Knott．美国的防撞设计规范和设计经验[J]．IABSE年会．丹麦．1998
[77]V．U．Minorsky．An Analysis of Ship Collisions With Reference to Protectionof Nuclear Power Plants[J]．Journal of Ship Research．1959，October： P 1-4
[78]戴彤宇，聂武．船撞桥事故综述[J]．黑龙江交通科技，2003，No．2： 1-3
[79]陈国虞，王礼立等．船撞桥及其防御[M]．北京：中国铁道出版社．2006
[80]刘怀汉等．内河跨河建筑物通航净空尺度与技术要求专题研究报告[J]．长江航道规划设计研究院．2001．
[81]秦炳军．复杂系统概率风险评估基础性研究[D]．上海：上海交通大学，1998．
[82]洪燕峰等．环境风险预警评估方法研究[J]．重庆环境科学．1999 21 (2)：18-20
[83]GB/T50283-1999．公路工程结构可靠度设计统一标准[S]．北京：中国计划出版社，1999．
[84]GB50216-1994．铁路工程结构可靠度设计统一标准[[S]．北京：中国计划出版社，1994．
[85]GB50153-1992．工程结构可靠度设计统一标准[S]．北京：中国计划出版社，1992．
[86]GB50068-2001．建筑结构可靠度设计统一标准[S]．北京：中国建筑工业出版社，2001．
[87]Kam T．Y Large Deflection Analysis of Inelastic Plane Frames[J]．Journal of Structural Engineering．1988，114(1)： 184-197．
[88]Bucher C．G．and Bourgund U．A fast and efficient response surface approach for structural reliability problems[J]．Structural Safety，1990 7(1)：57-66．
[89]Carroll，John M．Simulation Using Personal Computers[M]．New Jersey： Prentice Hall． 1987： 43-46．
[90]Hadipuiono F．C．，Diaz，C．F．，Trends in recent construction and structural failures in the United States[J]．Foren．Eng．1988，Vol．1(4)： 227-232
[91]Hakan F．，Fredtik N．，Risk Concepts in Fire Safety Design．Safety，Risk，Reliability-Trends in engineering[J]．Malta： 1ABSE，2001：89-94
[92]Hansjorg S．，Andn-as F．B．，Law and technical risk： risk based regulation： practical experience．Safety，Risk，Reliability—Trends in engineering[J]．Malta： IABSE，2001：15-22
[93]JTG D62-2004．公路钢筋混凝土及预应力混凝土桥涵设计规范[S]．人民交通出版社，2004．
[94]JTG D60-2004．路桥涵设计通用规范[S]．人民交通出版社，2004．
[95]JTJ041-2000．公路桥涵施工技术规范[S]．人民交通出版社，2002．
[96]Guan X．L．Melchers R．E．Multitangent-plane Surface Method for reliability calculation[J]．Journal of Engineering Mechanics．1997 123(10)：996-1002
[97]方再根．计算机模拟和蒙特卡罗方法[M]．北京：北京工业学院出版社，1988．
[98]张圣坤，白勇，唐文勇．船舶与海洋工程风险评估[M]．北京：国防工业出版社．2003，26-27
[99]方正泰，许建伦．统计分布[M]．统计出版社，1996．
[100]Hadipriono F．C．Analysis of events in recent structural failwe[J]．Journal of Structural Engineering，1985，111(7)：18-23
[101]高大启．有教师的线性基本函数前向三层神经网络结构研究[[J]．计算机学报，1998，21(1)：80-85
[102]高佳，黄祥瑞，沈祖培．人的可靠性分析：需要、状况和进展[J]．中南工学院学报，1999，13(2)：11-25
[103]童继平，韩正妹．蒙特卡罗方法与计算机模拟研究[J]．计算机与农业，2000(7)： 17-21
[105]傅征样，李革平．地震生命损失研究[M]．北京：地震出版社，1993．
[106]Haldar A，Mahadewan S．Reliability assessment using stochastic finite element analysis[M]．NewYork： John Wiley and Sons，Inc，2000．
[107]陈建阳等．大跨度桥梁施工控制中的神经网络方法[J]．桥梁建设，2001，6：42-46
[108]邓建，朱合华．基于神经网络的岩土工程结构随机有限元分析[J]．同济大学学报，2002，30(3)：269-272．
[109]仇付国．城市污水再生利用健康风险评价[D]．西安：西安建筑科技大学，2004．
[110]丛爽．神经网络、模糊系统及其在运动控制中的应用[M]．合肥：中国科学技术大学出版社，2001．
[111]陈宜桂，史铁林．BP网络的全局最优化学习算法[J]．计算机科学，1996(1)： 73-75
[112]邓建．地下结构可靠度理论与应用研究[D]．上海：同济大学，2002．
[113]邓铁军．工程风险管理[M]．北京：人民交通出版社，2004．
[114]Joanne Hill and John H．Sharp．Encapsulation of Sn(ll) and Sn(IV) Chlorides in Composite Cements[J]．J．Am．Ccram．Soc．(2005) 88(3) ：560-565
[115]Handa，K．，and Andersson，K．Application of finite eminent methods in the statistical analysis ofstructwes[A]．Proceedings of ICOSSAR'81，the 3rd International Conference on Structural Safetyand Reliability[C]，Moan&Shinazuka (eds)，1981．400-417．
[116]Hannaman G．W．，Spurgin A．J．，Lukic Y．Human Cognitive Reliability Model for PRA Analysis[J]．NUS-4531，1985：91-97
[117]阮欣．桥梁工程风险评估体系及关键问题研究[D]．上海：同济大学，2006．
[118]Friss H．P，Ditlevsen ．Nature preservation acceptance model applied to tanker oil spill simulations．Structural Safety，2003，25(1)： 1-34．
[119]Gimsing NJ．Cable supported bridges[M]．and Ed．Chichester： John Wiley，1997．110-164
[120]Gimsing NJ．History of cable-stayed bridges[A]．IABSE Conference on Cable-Stayed Bridges-Past，Present and Future[C]，Malm，Sweden，1999： 8-24
[121]Kumalasari Wardbana，Hadipriono F．C．，Analysis of recent bridge failures in the United States[J]．Journal of Performance of Constructed Facilities．2003，Vol．17(3)：151-158
[122]Matousek M．，Schneider J．Untersuchurrgea zur Strukturdes Sicherheitsproblem bei Bauwkea[J]．Institute Stank and Baukonstruktion，der ETH Ziyri Bericht No．59，ETH Zihich： 1976： 81-83
[123]Menzies J．B．，Bridge failures，hazards and societal risk[J]．Safety of Bridge，Thomas Telford．1997： 36-41
[124]Hugh H．，Bridge life cycle cost analysis，NCHRP report[J]．Transportation research board of the national academes，2003：67-79
[125]IUGS．Quantitative risk assessment for slopes and landslides-the state of the art，In[J]： Cruder&Fell (eds)．Land risk assessment Balkema，Rottadam，1997：67-81
[126]Kapaln S．The words of risk analysis[J]．Risk analysis，Vol．17，1997：29-33
[127]Hank，I．E．，Shaaban，A．M，Gesimd，H，Valli，ect．，United States bridge failures，1951-1988[J]．Journal ofPerformance of Constructed Facilities．1990，Vol．4： 272-277
[128]Hilton，M．H，Some Case Studies of Highway Bridges Involved in Accidents[J]．Highway Research Record： 1973： 41-51
[129]Hovden J．，Public policy and administration in a vulneaable society： regulatory reforms initiated by a Norwegian conmussion[J]，Joutnal of Risk Research Vol．7：629-641
[130]Klaus H．Ostenfeld&Allan Larsen，Bridge engineering and aerodynamics[J]．Bridge Aerodynamics，Larsen&Esdahl (eds)，Ball．a，Rotterdam，1998： 570-573
[131]岳超源．决策理论与方法[M]．北京：科学出版社，2004．
[132]Krone R M System analysis and policy science[M]．New York ：Jove Wrley&Sons．1980：186-198
[133]余子华．工程保险费率相关影响因素的分析[J]．浙江建筑，2003，Vol．(4)：47-49
[134]Kriemidjian A．S．，Pachakisa D．Method for Seismic Risk Assessment of Prot Facilities[J]．Safety，Risk，Reliability-Trends in engineering．Malta： IABSE，2001：95-100
[135]张风华．大型建设工程及城市风险评价与保险研究[D]．上海：同济大学，2004．
[136]Nathwani J．S．，Lind N．C．，Pandey M．D．，Affordable safety by choice[J]．Institute for risk research，Cananda：ISBN 0-9696747-9-1，1997：99-105
[137]张建斌，张楠楠．我国工程风险管理与工程保险制度研究[J]．基建优化，2003，Vol．24(4)：20-23
[138]Nowak A．S．，NCHRP report 368： Calibration of LRFD beidge design code[J]．Transportation research board of national academies： Washington DC，1999：64-67
[139]张凌，陈阶亮．风险管理与保险在钱江四桥工程中的应用[J]．桥梁建设，2002(1)：69-70
[140]Niels L．，Social and economic criteria of acceptable risk[J]．Reliability engineering and safety safety，2002，Vol．78：21-25
[141]Niels PH．，Risk and safety considerations at different project phase[J]．Safety，risk，reliability-trends in engineering： processding．IABSE synyosium Malta．2001：104-110
[142]张建斌，张楠楠．我国工程风险管理与工程担保制度探析[J]．经济观察，2002(12)：7-8
[143]Olivier S．，Didier C，Risk assessment and risk decision-making process related to hazardous installation in France[J]．Journal of Risk Research Hugh H．，Bridge life cycle cost analysis，NCHRP report 483．Transportation research board of the national academes，2003：87-93
[144]方开泰．均匀设计与均匀设计表[M]．科学出版社，1994．
[145]Herbert M．G．，Armando M．A．Comparison of response surface and newal network with othermethod for structwal reliability analysis[J]．Structural Safety，2004，26： 49-67．
[146]Hideyuki KITA．A fault tree construction method using ship collision reports[A]．Safety，Risk Reliability-Trends in engineering[C]，Malta： IABSE，2001．
[147]方向．核电厂操作人员可靠性研究[J]．北京：清华大学核能技术设计院，1999： 16-21
[148]Hisada T，Nakagiri S．Role of the stochastic finite element method in structural safety andreliability[A]．Proc．4th Int Conf： on Struct．Safety and Reliability Kobe[C]，Japan，1985，213-219
[149]Hollnagel E．Cognitive Reliability and Error Analysis Method{M}．Elsevier Science Ltd，1998；26-54
[150]涂燕宁，肖焕雄．水电工程发电效益风险分析的研究[J]．水能源科学，1999，17(4)： 39-42
[151]Holinagel E．Reliability analysis and operator modeling[J]．Reliability Engineering and System Safety，1996，52： 327-337
[152]Hollnagel E．The reliability of man-machine interaction[J]．Reliability Engineering and System safety，1992，38： 81-89
[153]Honshu-Shikoku Bridge Authority．The Tatara bridge—design and construction technology for theworld's longest cable-stayed bridge[M]，JAPAN，1999．
[154]Hopfield J．J．Neural Networks and physical Systems with Emergent Collective Computational Abilities[J]．Proc．Nail．Acad．Sci，1982，79： 2554-2558
[155]Choi M Y and Kwon I B．Damage detection system of a real steel truss bridge by neuralnetworks[A]．Smart Structures and Material 2000： Smart Systems for Bridges，Structures and Highways[C]．2000，3988： 295-306．
[156]Dendrou B．A．，Houstis F．N．An．Inference finite element model for field applications．Applied Mathemation Modeling[J]，Guildfrod．England，1978，1：49-55．
[157]Aly N．History and Aesthetics of Cable-Stayed Bridges[J]．Journal of Structural Engineering．1990，117(19)： 3103-3134．
[158]Dan F．M．，ICiyohiro Ⅰ．Geometrically nonlinear finite element reliability analysis of structural systems，Ⅱ：Applications[J]．Computers and Strucures，2000，77：693-709．
[159]R．C．Joshi and V．M．Malhotra．Relationship Between Pozzolanic Activity and Chemical and Physical of Selected Canadian Fly Ashes[J]．Materials Research Society Symposia Proceedings，1997(86)：91-97
[160]Jan E．V Offshore Risk Assessment．Principles，Modelling and Application of QRA Studies[M]，Kluwer Academic Publishiers，1999．
[161]张圣坤，白勇，唐文勇．船舶于海洋工程风险评估[M]．北京：国防工业出版社，2003．
[162]IMO，Formal Safety Assessment，Decision parameters including risk acceptance criteria[J]，MSC，2000：728-734
[163]张相庭．高层建筑抗风抗展设计计算[M]．上海：同济大学出版社，1997．
[164]Kim S．H．，Na S．W．Response surface method using vector projected sampling Points[J]．Structural Safety，1997，19(1)： 3-9
[165]赵传君．风险经济学[M]．哈尔滨：黑龙江教育出版社，1985．
[166]王建群．水利建设项目不确定型经济评价方法研究[J]．水利经济，1996(2) ： 26-31
[167]KimAT．V．Structural reliability of concrete bridges including improved chloride-induced corrosion models[J]．Structural Safety，2000，22： 313-333
[168]王建群，基于经济性和可靠性的多目标风险型决策方法[J]．河海大学学报，1995，23(2) 18-22
[169]涂燕宁．水电工程投资与效益的风险分析及决策[D]．武汉：武汉水利电力大学，1998．
[170]Kirwan B．The validation of three human reliability quantification techniques-THERP，HEART andJHEDI： PartI-technique description and validation issues[J]．Applied Ergonomics，1996，27(6)：359-373