农业财政支出与陕西经济增长的关系研究
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摘要
“十一五”规划提出了未来五年我国经济社会发展的指导方针、总体目标、主要任务和重大举措。财政是落实党和国家大政方针的物质基础、政策工具、体制保障和监管手段。“十一五”时期财政工作的主要任务是:积极促进城乡协调发展,扩大公共财政覆盖“三农”的范围,继续加大对“三农”的投入力度。为了最大限度地提高农业财政资源的配置效率、优化农业财政支出结构,就需要准确把握农业财政支出在农业经济增长过程中所起的作用,应该明确农业财政支出与经济增长的关系,农业财政支出能否促进农业经济增长,以及农业财政支出对经济增长的贡献率。农业财政支出与农业经济增长关系的研究文献已经很多,但是在省一级层面研究的较少。由于我国幅员辽阔,东、中、西部各省份经济发展水平不同,如果从国家层面研究农业财政支出与经济增长的关系会忽略掉各省的差异,所以我们有必要在省级层面研究农业财政支出与经济增长的关系,我们以陕西为例,研究农业财政支出对经济增长的贡献率,为陕西经济发展目标的实现提供理论指导。
本文按逻辑顺序由六部分内容构成。
第一部分是绪论,主要论述了本文研究的目的和意义、研究思路和方法、研究框架以及可能创新之处。
第二部分总结归纳国内外研究现状。对政府财政支出与经济增长的相关性,财政政策的有效性,政府财政支出对经济增长的作用机理及农业财政支出对经济增长的贡献等四个方面进行总结归纳。
第三部分对陕西省农业财政支出的现状进行概述,对农业财政支出等相关的概念进行界定。明确了陕西省GDP与农业财政支出的对比关系,特别是改革开放以来陕西省农业财政支出的规模和比例。最后是陕西“十一五”规划中新农村建设的目标任务。
第四部分研究陕西省农业财政支出与经济增长的关系,运用灰色系统理论研究得出农业财政支出与经济增长高度相关。进而研究农业财政支出对促进陕西经济持续增长的作用机理,分别从农业财政支出与扩大陕西农村内需的关系和农村内需扩大与促进陕西经济持续增长的关系两方面进行分析。最后使用格兰杰因果检验法对农业财政支出与经济增长的因果关系进行探讨,得出农业财政支出与农业经济增长在不同的滞后期存在双向因果关系,农业财政支出与全省经济之间的存在单向因果关系。
第五部分运用扩展的柯布·道格拉斯模型求解农业财政支出对农业经济增长的贡献率,然后进一步求出对全省经济增长的贡献率。
第六部分是政策建议,陕西作为一个欠发达省份,在进行经济赶超战略的过程中,财政作为一个有效的投资渠道,有效发挥财政支农的作用可以促进陕西省“十一五”规划目标顺利实现,本文从支出效率、支出规模、支出管理等五个方面提出了自己的政策建议。
本文研究的主要结论是:运用灰色系统理论分段讨论农业财政支出与陕西经济增长的关系,农业财政支出与陕西农业经济之间高度相关,分段求解相关度,相关度分别高达0.970和0.910,农业财政支出与陕西全省经济之间的相关度也达到0.971和0.962,都属于高度相关。农业财政支出与农业产出之间互为格兰杰因果关系,农业财政支出增长推动了农业产出的增长,农业产出的持续增长又进一步推动了政府增加农业财政的力度。农业财政支出对陕西省农业经济产出的平均贡献率为0.2204,说明陕西省农业经济的增长1/5强是依靠农业财政的支持,农业财政支出对陕西全省经济增长的贡献率为2.41%。
The party's "11th Five-Year Plan" definitely put forward the next five years' guidelines, the overall objectives, major tasks, and the important measure of the our country economic social development. Finance is the material foundation , policy tools, system guarantee and monitoring means of the implementation of the party and state great policies. In the "11th Five-Year Plan" period, the main mission of the financial work is that: Actively promote the harmonious development between city and countryside, continuously extend the public finance's overlay scope on "The three Agriculture". A lot of research results express: the agricultural fiscal expenditure policy can promote the development of agricultural economy. In order to maximize the allocation efficiency of financial resources, and optimize the agricultural structure of financial expenditure, it is necessary to accurately grasp the role of the financial expenditure in the agricultural economic growth. We should make certain the relationship between the agriculture financial expenditure and economic growth, such as whether the agriculture financial expenditure can promote economic growth and the contribution rate of the agriculture financial expenditure. Because China's territory is too broad, there are different level of economic development in the eastern, central and western provinces. Study the relationship between agriculture financial expenditure and economic growth on the national level, we maybe neglect the difference of each provinces. So it is necessity to study the relationship at the provincial level. We take Shaanxi as an example to study the contribution rate of the agriculture fiscal expenditure on economic growth, we hope that the paper can provide some theoretical guidance for Shaanxi.
This paper is divided into six parts:
The first part is introduction, mainly gives the study purpose and theoretical and practical significance and the idea of this paper, plans out the research framework and the possible innovation.
The second part is the review about the domestic and international research situation, and divided into four parts. They are the correlation between government finance expenditure and economic growth, the effectiveness of fiscal policy, the function mechanism of the government finance expenditure to economic growth, the contribution of the agriculture financial expenditure to economic growth.
The third part is the status quo of finance expenditure of Shaanxi's agriculture. defined the agriculture finance expenditure and the related concept. Secondly, the author compared the Shaanxi Provincial GDP with agricultural financial expenditure, especially analyzed the scale and ratio of Shaanxi agricultural financial expenditure since the reform and opening up. Finally, the paper pointed out that the target mission of Shaanxi's building new rural areas in "11th Five-Year Plan" period.
The fourth part is the relation-research between the agriculture financial expenditure and economic growth. According to Grey System theoretical, There is a conclusion that the agricultural financial expenditure and economic growth are highly related. Then, the paper discussed the function mechanism of agriculture financial expenditure to the sustained economic growth of Shaanxi province, the point was discussed in detail from the following two aspects: the relation between agricultural financial expenditure and the expansion of domestic demand in rural areas in Shaanxi, between Shanxi expanding domestic demand in rural areas and Shaanxi's sustained economic growth .Finally, through the Granger causality test, there is a causal relationship between agriculture financial expenditure and agricultural economic growth in different lags. And there is a one-way causal relationship between agricultural financial expenditure and the whole province's economy.
The fifth part, On the basis of the conclusion,the author further study the contribution rate of fiscal expenditure to economic growth in agriculture, and the contribution rate of agricultural fiscal expenditure to the whole economic growth.
The sixth part is the application of conclusion. As a less developed province, Shaanxi is in the process of economic catching up strategy, the financial as an effective investment channels, provide an effective financial support for agriculture so that the effect can promote the Shaanxi's "11th Five-Year" plan Goals to be achieved smoothly.
The main conclusion of this paper is: Discussed the relationship and got that agriculture financial expenditure and the agricultural economy in Shaanxi Province have highly correlation, the correlation coefficient reached respectively 0.970 and 0.910, the correlation coefficient between agriculture financial expenditure and the whole province's economic reached respectively 0.971 and 0.962. There is Granger causal relationship between agricultural financial expenditure and agricultural output, They influence each other and promote each other. The average contribution rate of agricultural financial expenditure to agriculture economic output in Shaanxi province is 0.2204, this prove that the 1/5 Shaanxi's agricultural economic growth rely on the financial support of agriculture, the contribution rate of agriculture fiscal expenditure to Shaanxi's whole economic growth rate reached 2.41%.
本文按逻辑顺序由六部分内容构成。
第一部分是绪论,主要论述了本文研究的目的和意义、研究思路和方法、研究框架以及可能创新之处。
第二部分总结归纳国内外研究现状。对政府财政支出与经济增长的相关性,财政政策的有效性,政府财政支出对经济增长的作用机理及农业财政支出对经济增长的贡献等四个方面进行总结归纳。
第三部分对陕西省农业财政支出的现状进行概述,对农业财政支出等相关的概念进行界定。明确了陕西省GDP与农业财政支出的对比关系,特别是改革开放以来陕西省农业财政支出的规模和比例。最后是陕西“十一五”规划中新农村建设的目标任务。
第四部分研究陕西省农业财政支出与经济增长的关系,运用灰色系统理论研究得出农业财政支出与经济增长高度相关。进而研究农业财政支出对促进陕西经济持续增长的作用机理,分别从农业财政支出与扩大陕西农村内需的关系和农村内需扩大与促进陕西经济持续增长的关系两方面进行分析。最后使用格兰杰因果检验法对农业财政支出与经济增长的因果关系进行探讨,得出农业财政支出与农业经济增长在不同的滞后期存在双向因果关系,农业财政支出与全省经济之间的存在单向因果关系。
第五部分运用扩展的柯布·道格拉斯模型求解农业财政支出对农业经济增长的贡献率,然后进一步求出对全省经济增长的贡献率。
第六部分是政策建议,陕西作为一个欠发达省份,在进行经济赶超战略的过程中,财政作为一个有效的投资渠道,有效发挥财政支农的作用可以促进陕西省“十一五”规划目标顺利实现,本文从支出效率、支出规模、支出管理等五个方面提出了自己的政策建议。
本文研究的主要结论是:运用灰色系统理论分段讨论农业财政支出与陕西经济增长的关系,农业财政支出与陕西农业经济之间高度相关,分段求解相关度,相关度分别高达0.970和0.910,农业财政支出与陕西全省经济之间的相关度也达到0.971和0.962,都属于高度相关。农业财政支出与农业产出之间互为格兰杰因果关系,农业财政支出增长推动了农业产出的增长,农业产出的持续增长又进一步推动了政府增加农业财政的力度。农业财政支出对陕西省农业经济产出的平均贡献率为0.2204,说明陕西省农业经济的增长1/5强是依靠农业财政的支持,农业财政支出对陕西全省经济增长的贡献率为2.41%。
The party's "11th Five-Year Plan" definitely put forward the next five years' guidelines, the overall objectives, major tasks, and the important measure of the our country economic social development. Finance is the material foundation , policy tools, system guarantee and monitoring means of the implementation of the party and state great policies. In the "11th Five-Year Plan" period, the main mission of the financial work is that: Actively promote the harmonious development between city and countryside, continuously extend the public finance's overlay scope on "The three Agriculture". A lot of research results express: the agricultural fiscal expenditure policy can promote the development of agricultural economy. In order to maximize the allocation efficiency of financial resources, and optimize the agricultural structure of financial expenditure, it is necessary to accurately grasp the role of the financial expenditure in the agricultural economic growth. We should make certain the relationship between the agriculture financial expenditure and economic growth, such as whether the agriculture financial expenditure can promote economic growth and the contribution rate of the agriculture financial expenditure. Because China's territory is too broad, there are different level of economic development in the eastern, central and western provinces. Study the relationship between agriculture financial expenditure and economic growth on the national level, we maybe neglect the difference of each provinces. So it is necessity to study the relationship at the provincial level. We take Shaanxi as an example to study the contribution rate of the agriculture fiscal expenditure on economic growth, we hope that the paper can provide some theoretical guidance for Shaanxi.
This paper is divided into six parts:
The first part is introduction, mainly gives the study purpose and theoretical and practical significance and the idea of this paper, plans out the research framework and the possible innovation.
The second part is the review about the domestic and international research situation, and divided into four parts. They are the correlation between government finance expenditure and economic growth, the effectiveness of fiscal policy, the function mechanism of the government finance expenditure to economic growth, the contribution of the agriculture financial expenditure to economic growth.
The third part is the status quo of finance expenditure of Shaanxi's agriculture. defined the agriculture finance expenditure and the related concept. Secondly, the author compared the Shaanxi Provincial GDP with agricultural financial expenditure, especially analyzed the scale and ratio of Shaanxi agricultural financial expenditure since the reform and opening up. Finally, the paper pointed out that the target mission of Shaanxi's building new rural areas in "11th Five-Year Plan" period.
The fourth part is the relation-research between the agriculture financial expenditure and economic growth. According to Grey System theoretical, There is a conclusion that the agricultural financial expenditure and economic growth are highly related. Then, the paper discussed the function mechanism of agriculture financial expenditure to the sustained economic growth of Shaanxi province, the point was discussed in detail from the following two aspects: the relation between agricultural financial expenditure and the expansion of domestic demand in rural areas in Shaanxi, between Shanxi expanding domestic demand in rural areas and Shaanxi's sustained economic growth .Finally, through the Granger causality test, there is a causal relationship between agriculture financial expenditure and agricultural economic growth in different lags. And there is a one-way causal relationship between agricultural financial expenditure and the whole province's economy.
The fifth part, On the basis of the conclusion,the author further study the contribution rate of fiscal expenditure to economic growth in agriculture, and the contribution rate of agricultural fiscal expenditure to the whole economic growth.
The sixth part is the application of conclusion. As a less developed province, Shaanxi is in the process of economic catching up strategy, the financial as an effective investment channels, provide an effective financial support for agriculture so that the effect can promote the Shaanxi's "11th Five-Year" plan Goals to be achieved smoothly.
The main conclusion of this paper is: Discussed the relationship and got that agriculture financial expenditure and the agricultural economy in Shaanxi Province have highly correlation, the correlation coefficient reached respectively 0.970 and 0.910, the correlation coefficient between agriculture financial expenditure and the whole province's economic reached respectively 0.971 and 0.962. There is Granger causal relationship between agricultural financial expenditure and agricultural output, They influence each other and promote each other. The average contribution rate of agricultural financial expenditure to agriculture economic output in Shaanxi province is 0.2204, this prove that the 1/5 Shaanxi's agricultural economic growth rely on the financial support of agriculture, the contribution rate of agriculture fiscal expenditure to Shaanxi's whole economic growth rate reached 2.41%.
引文
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