服务器研发项目风险因素研究
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摘要
信息技术(Information Technology,简称IT)的应用已渗透到社会经济的各个方面,西方发达国家的信息产业的产值已达到国内生产总值(GDP)的一半以上。我国自1998年以来,信息产业的增长速度均高于同期GDP的增长速度,信息产业已成为国民经济的支柱产业。在高速发展的同时,存在着一个不容忽视的问题,那就是不论国外还是国内,信息系统项目的失败率非常高,项目在工期,成本,功能,性能等方面无法达到预期目标。2000年美国的IT项目失败率为72% ,2001年中国的项目成功率也不足30%。
本文通过先期的文献阅读以及和作者所管理项目团队,以及管理层,供应商代表,客户代表,和集团内部紧密合作的部门同事等进行广泛的交流,结合项目管理的论坛,网站沟通,总结出68条IT项目管理的主要风险因素,去掉不适用于服务器行业项目的8条风险因素,综合总结后提出60条关键性的风险因素。根据得出的60条风险因素设计调查问卷,发放问卷,请受访者其对项目风险情况进行评判打分。并对回收后的问卷用专业统计软件SPSS来分析,用到的主要分析方法有项目分析,相关性分析,因子分析,信度分析等,并进一步计算服务器项目风险因素和项目结果之间的回归关系。由此我们可以了解到服务器研发项目十大风险因素,和六大公因子,为广大读者参考。
The use of Information Technique has been adopted in everywhere of the society, currently the production values of IT in western countries have reached more than half of their national GDP. In China, the growth rate of the IT industry has been higher that the rate of GDP growth in the same period since the year of 1998, the IT industry has become the foundation stone of the country’s economy development. However there is a fact that it can not be ignored, that is the IT projects present a high failure rate regardless in domestic or oversea enterprises, most often failing with late delivery, bad cost control, performance gap with goal etc. Statistics show that the failure rate of IT projects in USA was 72% (in year of 2002) and the success rate of of IT projects in China was less than 30% ( in year of 2001).
Through comprehensive paper and documents reading and the extensive communication with the team member of my project, the peers in corporation, the management team, the representatives of suppliers, the representatives of customers, with the consideration of information from project management forum, website, 68 of risk factors has been obtained. 8 of risk factors was taken out of the later study as they did not apply to the server project management, the rest of 60 key risk factors was sorted out. A questionnaire was designed and a survey was conducted to do further evaluation. The interviewees were asked to evaluate the risk factors by marking scores from 1 to 5 points. The data were analyzed with SPSS 17.0 -the professional statistic software. The main tools were used as below: correlation analysis, factor analysis, reliability analysis, and the regression analysis. The top 10 risks and 6 factors can be used for future references which were identified by the survey and the analysis in this paper.
本文通过先期的文献阅读以及和作者所管理项目团队,以及管理层,供应商代表,客户代表,和集团内部紧密合作的部门同事等进行广泛的交流,结合项目管理的论坛,网站沟通,总结出68条IT项目管理的主要风险因素,去掉不适用于服务器行业项目的8条风险因素,综合总结后提出60条关键性的风险因素。根据得出的60条风险因素设计调查问卷,发放问卷,请受访者其对项目风险情况进行评判打分。并对回收后的问卷用专业统计软件SPSS来分析,用到的主要分析方法有项目分析,相关性分析,因子分析,信度分析等,并进一步计算服务器项目风险因素和项目结果之间的回归关系。由此我们可以了解到服务器研发项目十大风险因素,和六大公因子,为广大读者参考。
The use of Information Technique has been adopted in everywhere of the society, currently the production values of IT in western countries have reached more than half of their national GDP. In China, the growth rate of the IT industry has been higher that the rate of GDP growth in the same period since the year of 1998, the IT industry has become the foundation stone of the country’s economy development. However there is a fact that it can not be ignored, that is the IT projects present a high failure rate regardless in domestic or oversea enterprises, most often failing with late delivery, bad cost control, performance gap with goal etc. Statistics show that the failure rate of IT projects in USA was 72% (in year of 2002) and the success rate of of IT projects in China was less than 30% ( in year of 2001).
Through comprehensive paper and documents reading and the extensive communication with the team member of my project, the peers in corporation, the management team, the representatives of suppliers, the representatives of customers, with the consideration of information from project management forum, website, 68 of risk factors has been obtained. 8 of risk factors was taken out of the later study as they did not apply to the server project management, the rest of 60 key risk factors was sorted out. A questionnaire was designed and a survey was conducted to do further evaluation. The interviewees were asked to evaluate the risk factors by marking scores from 1 to 5 points. The data were analyzed with SPSS 17.0 -the professional statistic software. The main tools were used as below: correlation analysis, factor analysis, reliability analysis, and the regression analysis. The top 10 risks and 6 factors can be used for future references which were identified by the survey and the analysis in this paper.
引文
[1]Boehm, B.W. Software risk management. IEEE Computer Society Press Washington D. C, 1989
[2]Boehm, B.W. Software risk management: principles and practices. IEEE Software, 1991
[3]Lyytinen, K., Mathiassen, L., Ropponen, J. Attention shaping and software risk-a Categorical analysis of four classical risk management approaches. Information Systems Research,1998(9)
[4]Barki, H., Riverd, S., Talbot, J. Toward an assessment of software development risk. Journal of Management Information Systems, 1993
[5]Haimes, Y.Y., Lambert, J., Duan Li, Schooff, R., Tulsiani, V. Hierarchical holographic modeling for risk identification in complex systems. Systems, Man and Cybernetics, 1995
[6]Lyytinen, K., Mathiassen, L., Ropponen, J. A framework for risk management. Journal of Information Technology, 1996(4)
[7] Joseph F. Hair, JR. etc. Multivariate data analysis with readings, 4th Edition. Prentice-Ha1l International, 1995
[8]郑德如.回归分析和相关分析.上海:上海人民出版社,1983
[9]张小蒂.应用回归分析.北京:中国统计出版社,1990
[10]郭志刚.社会统计方法一SPSS软件应用.北京:中国人民大学出版社,1999
[11]张文彤. SPSS统计分析教程(高级篇)北京:北京希望电子出版社,2002
[12]郭志刚,郝虹生,杜业军,曲海波.社会调查研究德量化方法.北京:中国人民大学出版社,1995
[13] Haimes, Y.Y., Lambert, J., Duan Li, Schooff, R., Tulsiani, V. Intelligent systems for the 21 st century, IEEE International Conference on, 1995
[14] James H. Lambert, Haimes Y.Y., Duan Li, Richard M. Schooff, Vijay Tulsiani. Identification, ranking and management of risks in a major system acquisition. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2001
[15] Schmidt Roy, Lyytinen Kalle, Keil Mark and Cule Paul. Identifying software project risks: an international Delphi study. Journal of Management Information Systems, Spring 2001
[16] Kathy Schwalbe. Information Technology Project Management. Thomson Learning public co. 1999.
[17] Moynihan, T. How experience project managers assess risk. IEEE Software, May, 1997
[18] Lreland, LewisR.Quality management for projects and programs. Project Management Institute, 1991
[19]The Standish Group. Extreme chaos, From ttps://secure.standishgroup.com/reports/ reports. 2001.
[20]沈建明,项目风险管理.北京:机械工业出版社,2003.
[21] Wallace, L., Keil, M., Rai, A., Understanding software project risk: a cluster Analysis.
[22] Schwalbe K. Information technology project management,北京:机械工业出版社, 2004
[23] Hwang C L, Yoon K S. Multiple attribute decision making .Berlin: Spinger-Verlag, 1981
[24]Elaine M.Hall. Management risk: methods for software systems development.北京:清华大学出版社,2002
[25] Dam Remenyi. Stop IT project failures through risk management.北京:机械工业出版社,2002
[26] John Raftery. Risk Analysis in project management.北京:机械工业出版社,2002. [27 PMI Standards Committee. A guide to the project management body of knowledge. Pittsburgh Pa: Project Management Institute, 2000
[28] Dorofee, Audrey, Walker. Continuous risk management guide book. Pittsburgh, Pa: Carnegie Mellon University, 1996
[29]薛华成.管理信息系统(第3版).北京:清华大学出版社,1999
[30]郭波,龚时雨,谭云涛.项目风险管理:北京:电子工业出版社,2008
[31]李怀祖.管理研究方法论西安:西安交通大学出版社2004.1
[32]卢有杰,卢家仪,项目风险管理北京:清华大学出版社,1998.7
[33]国家信息化评测中心.国家信息化水平研究报告. ttp://www.niec.org.cn/gjxxh/tjsj.thm
[34]凯西施瓦尔贝,王金玉等译IT项目管理北京:机械工业出版社,2001
[35]丹雷曼伊拯救IT-运用风险管理终止项目失败;北京,机械工业出版社
[36]洪显明.IT信息化项目管理知识体系Ipmbok框架结构2002.9
[37]P.Chan, D.Ho,C.Tam. Effect of Inter-orgnizational teamwork on project outcome. Journal of management in Engineering, Jan.2001
[2]Boehm, B.W. Software risk management: principles and practices. IEEE Software, 1991
[3]Lyytinen, K., Mathiassen, L., Ropponen, J. Attention shaping and software risk-a Categorical analysis of four classical risk management approaches. Information Systems Research,1998(9)
[4]Barki, H., Riverd, S., Talbot, J. Toward an assessment of software development risk. Journal of Management Information Systems, 1993
[5]Haimes, Y.Y., Lambert, J., Duan Li, Schooff, R., Tulsiani, V. Hierarchical holographic modeling for risk identification in complex systems. Systems, Man and Cybernetics, 1995
[6]Lyytinen, K., Mathiassen, L., Ropponen, J. A framework for risk management. Journal of Information Technology, 1996(4)
[7] Joseph F. Hair, JR. etc. Multivariate data analysis with readings, 4th Edition. Prentice-Ha1l International, 1995
[8]郑德如.回归分析和相关分析.上海:上海人民出版社,1983
[9]张小蒂.应用回归分析.北京:中国统计出版社,1990
[10]郭志刚.社会统计方法一SPSS软件应用.北京:中国人民大学出版社,1999
[11]张文彤. SPSS统计分析教程(高级篇)北京:北京希望电子出版社,2002
[12]郭志刚,郝虹生,杜业军,曲海波.社会调查研究德量化方法.北京:中国人民大学出版社,1995
[13] Haimes, Y.Y., Lambert, J., Duan Li, Schooff, R., Tulsiani, V. Intelligent systems for the 21 st century, IEEE International Conference on, 1995
[14] James H. Lambert, Haimes Y.Y., Duan Li, Richard M. Schooff, Vijay Tulsiani. Identification, ranking and management of risks in a major system acquisition. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2001
[15] Schmidt Roy, Lyytinen Kalle, Keil Mark and Cule Paul. Identifying software project risks: an international Delphi study. Journal of Management Information Systems, Spring 2001
[16] Kathy Schwalbe. Information Technology Project Management. Thomson Learning public co. 1999.
[17] Moynihan, T. How experience project managers assess risk. IEEE Software, May, 1997
[18] Lreland, LewisR.Quality management for projects and programs. Project Management Institute, 1991
[19]The Standish Group. Extreme chaos, From ttps://secure.standishgroup.com/reports/ reports. 2001.
[20]沈建明,项目风险管理.北京:机械工业出版社,2003.
[21] Wallace, L., Keil, M., Rai, A., Understanding software project risk: a cluster Analysis.
[22] Schwalbe K. Information technology project management,北京:机械工业出版社, 2004
[23] Hwang C L, Yoon K S. Multiple attribute decision making .Berlin: Spinger-Verlag, 1981
[24]Elaine M.Hall. Management risk: methods for software systems development.北京:清华大学出版社,2002
[25] Dam Remenyi. Stop IT project failures through risk management.北京:机械工业出版社,2002
[26] John Raftery. Risk Analysis in project management.北京:机械工业出版社,2002. [27 PMI Standards Committee. A guide to the project management body of knowledge. Pittsburgh Pa: Project Management Institute, 2000
[28] Dorofee, Audrey, Walker. Continuous risk management guide book. Pittsburgh, Pa: Carnegie Mellon University, 1996
[29]薛华成.管理信息系统(第3版).北京:清华大学出版社,1999
[30]郭波,龚时雨,谭云涛.项目风险管理:北京:电子工业出版社,2008
[31]李怀祖.管理研究方法论西安:西安交通大学出版社2004.1
[32]卢有杰,卢家仪,项目风险管理北京:清华大学出版社,1998.7
[33]国家信息化评测中心.国家信息化水平研究报告. ttp://www.niec.org.cn/gjxxh/tjsj.thm
[34]凯西施瓦尔贝,王金玉等译IT项目管理北京:机械工业出版社,2001
[35]丹雷曼伊拯救IT-运用风险管理终止项目失败;北京,机械工业出版社
[36]洪显明.IT信息化项目管理知识体系Ipmbok框架结构2002.9
[37]P.Chan, D.Ho,C.Tam. Effect of Inter-orgnizational teamwork on project outcome. Journal of management in Engineering, Jan.2001