北半球冬季阻塞活动长期变化的研究
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摘要
大气环流持续性异常现象——阻塞系统的活动,是一种在西风带中重要的低频变化过程。由于阻塞事件的发生和存在会对相关区域的天气,例如夏季降水,冬季寒潮、冻雨等造成极大影响,另外,为了提高中长期天气预报的准确性,给长期预报提供真实依据,因此对阻塞活动的研究具有重要意义。本文利用NCEP/NCAR再分析气象资料,借助LO阻塞指数、TM阻塞指数、Dole阻塞指数以及DLL阻塞指数,探讨了1948年以来北半球冬季阻塞活动特征的发展变化以及20世纪50年代末以来北大西洋涛动对其的影响。通过详细分析,主要结论如下：
北半球冬季振幅强烈的阻塞事件主要分布在北大西洋东部欧洲大陆(20°W-40°E)以及东亚鄂霍茨库海到北太平洋(130°E-150°W)附近,乌拉尔山区域(50°E-90°E)也有阻塞,强度小于两大主要分布区的阻塞活动发生的强度。
北大西洋欧洲区与北太平洋北美洲区的冬季阻塞平均强度在20世纪80年代中期之前的变化与整个北半球的平均强度变化大致相同,1985年之后北大西洋欧洲区平均强度略有加强,北太平洋北美洲区则减弱；但多年平均来说,北太平洋北美洲区阻塞强度,阻塞发生个数以及总天数的平均状况要比北大西洋欧洲区低,北大西洋欧洲区在四个区域中发生个例最多。
近20年左右的阻塞强度、阻塞总天数及个例数在北大西洋欧洲区接近或高于常年平均值,在北太平洋北美洲区接近或低于常年平均值。前后11年对比发现,北大西洋欧洲区分布在7-12天持续时间的平均强度值由高于均值水平下降,而北太平洋北美洲区分布在10天以内持续时间的由均值以下上升。两个区域,持续5-14天左右的阻塞天数以及个例数高于平均值的在降低,低于平均值的在升高,都在向多年平均状态靠拢。
乌拉尔山区与东亚-鄂霍茨库海区的冬季阻塞平均强度、个例数以及总天数年变化都比北大西洋欧洲区域和北太平洋北美洲区来得小,线性趋势中无论上上升或下降其走势都不明显；乌拉尔山区与东亚-鄂霍茨库海区的冬季阻塞个例数、总天数的差异都不大,并且其两者曲线的波动基本一致,平均强度线性发展趋势相互接近,个例数、总天数线性发展趋势相交。
乌拉尔山脉区近20年来阻塞事件个例数、阻塞总天数一直在平均值以下,而东亚-鄂霍茨库海区则高于平均值。1998年冬以来乌拉尔山脉对应持续时间5-8天的阻塞强度上升到平均水平,而东亚-鄂霍茨库海区阻塞平均强度基本在减弱。两者阻塞事件的天数同个例数距平相似,距平差异都很小,基本处在多年平均值水平。
20世纪50年代末以来北大西洋涛动变化趋势对北半球冬季阻塞活动产生一定的影响。线性回归分析表明北大西洋涛动(NAO)主要影响大西洋、欧洲及乌拉尔山地区阻塞。NAO指数与大西洋地区和乌拉尔山地区阻塞活动频率呈负相关关系,与欧洲阻塞活动正相关。在NAO负位相时期阻塞活动在大西洋地区较为频繁,在正位相时期大西洋地区阻塞活动受到抑制,而在欧洲相对活跃,同时乌拉尔山地区的阻塞活动也显著减少。正NAO指数表现为先增强后减弱的特征。在NAO正指数增强的阶段大西洋的阻塞活动受到明显抑制；而在NAO正指数减弱的阶段,东大西洋,尤其是欧洲地区阻塞活动得以增加。区域阻塞的逐年变化表现为,大西洋和乌拉尔地区阻塞在NAO指数增强的阶段呈下降趋势,欧洲阻塞呈增加的趋势。在NAO指数减弱的阶段大西洋阻塞成弱的上升趋势,欧洲和乌拉尔地区阻塞呈下降趋势。NAO指数的变化对阻塞强度也有明显影响,大西洋阻塞随NAO指数的加强而减弱,欧洲阻塞随NAO指数增加而增强。
北半球两个明显的阻塞区域都位于风暴轴的出口区。表明了冬季阻塞活动与涡动之间存在某种联系。NAO正位相有利于冬季欧洲大陆阻塞发生和加强,负位相有利于冬季大西洋地区阻塞活动,且中纬度涡旋活动的强弱和位置对NAO位相的变化起到重要作用。风暴带向东加强有利于NAO趋于正位相,但其进一步加强可使NAO正位相减弱。
本文关于北半球冬季阻塞活动特征变化规律以及与北大西洋涛动两者关系,互相影响的问题研究只是做了初步探讨,还有许多问题需要进一步的研究。
The persistent anomaly in the atmospheric circulation-blocking activity, is an important low-frequency process in the westerly. As blocking events greatly affect regional weather, such as summer rainfalls, winter cold waves, freezing rains, and so on. In addition, in order to improve the accuracy of minddle and long term weather forecasts, to provide the real basis for long-term forecasting, the research about blocking activities is of great significance. In this paper, applying NCEP/NCAR reanalysis weather data, by LO index, TM index, Dole index, and DLL index, it has been discussed variance and development of winter blocking events'features in the Northern Hemisphere since 1948 and since the late 1950, influences of North Atlantic Oscillation on it. Through analyzing it carefully, the main conclusions are as follows:
In the Northern Hemisphere, winter blocking events with the strongest amplitude mainly distribute over the eastern North Atlantic and Continental Europe sector (20°W-40°E), the East Asia Okhotsk Sea to North Pacific sector (130°E-150°W). Close to the Ural Mountains region (50°E-90°E) also owns blocking activities, but their intensity are weaker than them occuring two major blocking distribution above.
Before the mid-1980, The variance about average intensity of the winter blocking activities of the North Atlantic and Continental Europe sector, and the North Pacific and North America region, is in accordance with it over entire Northern Hemisphere. After 1985, the North Atlantic European average intensity increases slightly, the North Pacific and North America's is weakened; But for years, on average, the North Pacific North and North America winter blocking intensity, occurence and the total numbers of days are lower than the average conditions of the North Atlantic Europe, and the North Atlantic European region in the four sectors, the maximum winter blocking events occurred.
Lately in about 20 years, winter blocking intensity, total numbers of blocking days, and its cases in the North Atlantic and Continental Europe are close to or higher than the average value, which are close to or lower in the North Pacific and North America. The comparison between 11 years before and after shows, the North Atlantic European winter average blocking intensity (lasting 7-12 days) declines from higher than average, while in the North Pacific and North America region it (lasting less than 10 days) increases from lower than average. In two regions above, the number of winter blocking days and cases (lasting 5-14 days) decline which are higher than average condition, meanwhile the part below the average rise, and both are close to the many years average station.
In the Ural Mountains and East Asia Okhotsk Sea region, the average intensity, cases and the total numbers of winter blocking days are smaller than the annual change in the North Atlantic and Continental Europe, and North Pacific and North America. whether up or down in the linear trend, the movements are not obvious; Winter blocking cases and the total numbers of days are not highly different in both areas, and the two curves basically have the same fluctuation. The linear trends of average intensity apporch each other, which of cases and the total numbers of winter blocking days are intersection.
Since the past 20 years, the cases and total number of winter blocking days over Ural Mountains area have been below the average value, while in the East Asia Okhotsk Sea region it is higher than mean. Winter blocking intensity (lasting 5-8 days) in the Ural Mountains has risen up to the average level since 1998, but in the East Asia Okhotsk Sea area it has basically reduced. The cases and numbers of days in the two areas above have a similar anomaly, the differences between which are small, and on the whole, they stay in the average level of many years.
Since the late 1950, the variation trendency of North Atlantic Oscillation has affected winter blocking activity in the Northern Hemisphere to a certain degree. The linear regression analysis shows that the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) mainly affects the blocking events of the Atlantic Ocean, Europe and the Ural Mountains. There are negative relevant relations between NAO index and the frequency of blocking activities in the Atlantic arid the Urals region, which has positive correlation with the European blocking activities. During the negative NAO phase, the blocking activities are more frequent in the Atlantic region, which are inhibited in the positive phase. During the positive NAO phase, the blocking events in Europe are relatively active, and at the same time the blocking activities of Ural Mountains also significantly reduce. The feature of positive NAO index displays firstly enhanced and then weakened. During the positive NAO index increasing phase, the blocking activities of Atlantic Ocean are significantly restraint; but in the positive NAO index weakening stage, the blocking activities of the East Atlantic Ocean increase, particularly in European region. The annual changes in the regional blocking events show that during the enhancing phase of the NAO index the blocking situations in the Atlantic and the Urals region tend a downward trend, which increase in Europe. In the weakening phase of the NAO index, the Atlantic blocking cases present a weak uptrend, which trend downwards in Europe and the Ural region. NAO index changes have also significant effect on the blocking intensity. The Atlantic Ocean blocking intensity weakens with the strengthening NAO index, and the European blocking intensity reinforces with the increasing NAO index.
Over the Northern Hemisphere, two distinct blocking regions are both in the storm track outlet region. This expresses that winter blocking activities have a link with the eddies. Positive NAO phase is beneficial to the occurrence and enhancement of winter blocking activities in the Continental Europe, and negative phase is good for the North Atlantic, besides, the strength and position of mid-latitude eddies play an important role in the NAO phase shift. The storm zones which strengthen towards east favor that NAO tends to positive phase, but its further reinforcement weaken NAO positive phase.
This paper discussed variance and development of winter blocking events' features in the Northern Hemisphere and influences of North Atlantic Oscillation on it. This is just a preliminary investigation, but there are many issues needed further study.
北半球冬季振幅强烈的阻塞事件主要分布在北大西洋东部欧洲大陆(20°W-40°E)以及东亚鄂霍茨库海到北太平洋(130°E-150°W)附近,乌拉尔山区域(50°E-90°E)也有阻塞,强度小于两大主要分布区的阻塞活动发生的强度。
北大西洋欧洲区与北太平洋北美洲区的冬季阻塞平均强度在20世纪80年代中期之前的变化与整个北半球的平均强度变化大致相同,1985年之后北大西洋欧洲区平均强度略有加强,北太平洋北美洲区则减弱；但多年平均来说,北太平洋北美洲区阻塞强度,阻塞发生个数以及总天数的平均状况要比北大西洋欧洲区低,北大西洋欧洲区在四个区域中发生个例最多。
近20年左右的阻塞强度、阻塞总天数及个例数在北大西洋欧洲区接近或高于常年平均值,在北太平洋北美洲区接近或低于常年平均值。前后11年对比发现,北大西洋欧洲区分布在7-12天持续时间的平均强度值由高于均值水平下降,而北太平洋北美洲区分布在10天以内持续时间的由均值以下上升。两个区域,持续5-14天左右的阻塞天数以及个例数高于平均值的在降低,低于平均值的在升高,都在向多年平均状态靠拢。
乌拉尔山区与东亚-鄂霍茨库海区的冬季阻塞平均强度、个例数以及总天数年变化都比北大西洋欧洲区域和北太平洋北美洲区来得小,线性趋势中无论上上升或下降其走势都不明显；乌拉尔山区与东亚-鄂霍茨库海区的冬季阻塞个例数、总天数的差异都不大,并且其两者曲线的波动基本一致,平均强度线性发展趋势相互接近,个例数、总天数线性发展趋势相交。
乌拉尔山脉区近20年来阻塞事件个例数、阻塞总天数一直在平均值以下,而东亚-鄂霍茨库海区则高于平均值。1998年冬以来乌拉尔山脉对应持续时间5-8天的阻塞强度上升到平均水平,而东亚-鄂霍茨库海区阻塞平均强度基本在减弱。两者阻塞事件的天数同个例数距平相似,距平差异都很小,基本处在多年平均值水平。
20世纪50年代末以来北大西洋涛动变化趋势对北半球冬季阻塞活动产生一定的影响。线性回归分析表明北大西洋涛动(NAO)主要影响大西洋、欧洲及乌拉尔山地区阻塞。NAO指数与大西洋地区和乌拉尔山地区阻塞活动频率呈负相关关系,与欧洲阻塞活动正相关。在NAO负位相时期阻塞活动在大西洋地区较为频繁,在正位相时期大西洋地区阻塞活动受到抑制,而在欧洲相对活跃,同时乌拉尔山地区的阻塞活动也显著减少。正NAO指数表现为先增强后减弱的特征。在NAO正指数增强的阶段大西洋的阻塞活动受到明显抑制；而在NAO正指数减弱的阶段,东大西洋,尤其是欧洲地区阻塞活动得以增加。区域阻塞的逐年变化表现为,大西洋和乌拉尔地区阻塞在NAO指数增强的阶段呈下降趋势,欧洲阻塞呈增加的趋势。在NAO指数减弱的阶段大西洋阻塞成弱的上升趋势,欧洲和乌拉尔地区阻塞呈下降趋势。NAO指数的变化对阻塞强度也有明显影响,大西洋阻塞随NAO指数的加强而减弱,欧洲阻塞随NAO指数增加而增强。
北半球两个明显的阻塞区域都位于风暴轴的出口区。表明了冬季阻塞活动与涡动之间存在某种联系。NAO正位相有利于冬季欧洲大陆阻塞发生和加强,负位相有利于冬季大西洋地区阻塞活动,且中纬度涡旋活动的强弱和位置对NAO位相的变化起到重要作用。风暴带向东加强有利于NAO趋于正位相,但其进一步加强可使NAO正位相减弱。
本文关于北半球冬季阻塞活动特征变化规律以及与北大西洋涛动两者关系,互相影响的问题研究只是做了初步探讨,还有许多问题需要进一步的研究。
The persistent anomaly in the atmospheric circulation-blocking activity, is an important low-frequency process in the westerly. As blocking events greatly affect regional weather, such as summer rainfalls, winter cold waves, freezing rains, and so on. In addition, in order to improve the accuracy of minddle and long term weather forecasts, to provide the real basis for long-term forecasting, the research about blocking activities is of great significance. In this paper, applying NCEP/NCAR reanalysis weather data, by LO index, TM index, Dole index, and DLL index, it has been discussed variance and development of winter blocking events'features in the Northern Hemisphere since 1948 and since the late 1950, influences of North Atlantic Oscillation on it. Through analyzing it carefully, the main conclusions are as follows:
In the Northern Hemisphere, winter blocking events with the strongest amplitude mainly distribute over the eastern North Atlantic and Continental Europe sector (20°W-40°E), the East Asia Okhotsk Sea to North Pacific sector (130°E-150°W). Close to the Ural Mountains region (50°E-90°E) also owns blocking activities, but their intensity are weaker than them occuring two major blocking distribution above.
Before the mid-1980, The variance about average intensity of the winter blocking activities of the North Atlantic and Continental Europe sector, and the North Pacific and North America region, is in accordance with it over entire Northern Hemisphere. After 1985, the North Atlantic European average intensity increases slightly, the North Pacific and North America's is weakened; But for years, on average, the North Pacific North and North America winter blocking intensity, occurence and the total numbers of days are lower than the average conditions of the North Atlantic Europe, and the North Atlantic European region in the four sectors, the maximum winter blocking events occurred.
Lately in about 20 years, winter blocking intensity, total numbers of blocking days, and its cases in the North Atlantic and Continental Europe are close to or higher than the average value, which are close to or lower in the North Pacific and North America. The comparison between 11 years before and after shows, the North Atlantic European winter average blocking intensity (lasting 7-12 days) declines from higher than average, while in the North Pacific and North America region it (lasting less than 10 days) increases from lower than average. In two regions above, the number of winter blocking days and cases (lasting 5-14 days) decline which are higher than average condition, meanwhile the part below the average rise, and both are close to the many years average station.
In the Ural Mountains and East Asia Okhotsk Sea region, the average intensity, cases and the total numbers of winter blocking days are smaller than the annual change in the North Atlantic and Continental Europe, and North Pacific and North America. whether up or down in the linear trend, the movements are not obvious; Winter blocking cases and the total numbers of days are not highly different in both areas, and the two curves basically have the same fluctuation. The linear trends of average intensity apporch each other, which of cases and the total numbers of winter blocking days are intersection.
Since the past 20 years, the cases and total number of winter blocking days over Ural Mountains area have been below the average value, while in the East Asia Okhotsk Sea region it is higher than mean. Winter blocking intensity (lasting 5-8 days) in the Ural Mountains has risen up to the average level since 1998, but in the East Asia Okhotsk Sea area it has basically reduced. The cases and numbers of days in the two areas above have a similar anomaly, the differences between which are small, and on the whole, they stay in the average level of many years.
Since the late 1950, the variation trendency of North Atlantic Oscillation has affected winter blocking activity in the Northern Hemisphere to a certain degree. The linear regression analysis shows that the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) mainly affects the blocking events of the Atlantic Ocean, Europe and the Ural Mountains. There are negative relevant relations between NAO index and the frequency of blocking activities in the Atlantic arid the Urals region, which has positive correlation with the European blocking activities. During the negative NAO phase, the blocking activities are more frequent in the Atlantic region, which are inhibited in the positive phase. During the positive NAO phase, the blocking events in Europe are relatively active, and at the same time the blocking activities of Ural Mountains also significantly reduce. The feature of positive NAO index displays firstly enhanced and then weakened. During the positive NAO index increasing phase, the blocking activities of Atlantic Ocean are significantly restraint; but in the positive NAO index weakening stage, the blocking activities of the East Atlantic Ocean increase, particularly in European region. The annual changes in the regional blocking events show that during the enhancing phase of the NAO index the blocking situations in the Atlantic and the Urals region tend a downward trend, which increase in Europe. In the weakening phase of the NAO index, the Atlantic blocking cases present a weak uptrend, which trend downwards in Europe and the Ural region. NAO index changes have also significant effect on the blocking intensity. The Atlantic Ocean blocking intensity weakens with the strengthening NAO index, and the European blocking intensity reinforces with the increasing NAO index.
Over the Northern Hemisphere, two distinct blocking regions are both in the storm track outlet region. This expresses that winter blocking activities have a link with the eddies. Positive NAO phase is beneficial to the occurrence and enhancement of winter blocking activities in the Continental Europe, and negative phase is good for the North Atlantic, besides, the strength and position of mid-latitude eddies play an important role in the NAO phase shift. The storm zones which strengthen towards east favor that NAO tends to positive phase, but its further reinforcement weaken NAO positive phase.
This paper discussed variance and development of winter blocking events' features in the Northern Hemisphere and influences of North Atlantic Oscillation on it. This is just a preliminary investigation, but there are many issues needed further study.
引文
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