快速战略决策的理论与方法研究
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摘要
近年来,随着科学技术的迅速发展和全球经济一体化进程的加快,人类正在进入基于时间竞争的崭新时代,高速竞争环境彰显了快速响应客户的时代需求。第二代基于时间的竞争就是快速决策。快速而高质量地制定战略决策,使企业在充分挖掘潜在机会和规避风险的情况下实现快速响应客户,已成为社会发展的必然。本文针对高速竞争环境的特点,对快速战略决策的过程予以探讨,提出了快速战略决策的IFCMOSR速度模型和CART分析模型,进而对战略决策快速性的制约因素、战略决策实施的最佳时机和偏差预景与补救等问题进行了系统而深入的理论研究。本论文的创新工作主要包括如下4个方面。
(1)快速战略决策的研究框架。首先,对高速环境和快速战略决策的概念予以界定;其次,在对快速战略决策的诱因和特点分析的基础之上提出了快速战略决策的研究框架;最后,在对快速战略决策集成化的必要性阐述的基础之上提出了快速战略决策集成化的基本框架。
(2)快速战略决策的模型。首先,针对以前关于决策过程的研究大都只考虑了决策的制定,而没有考虑决策的实施与补救的不足,构建了集分析、制定、实施、监控和补救五个环节于一体的快速战略决策的IFCMOSR模型;接着,针对当前主流战略决策分析模型主要为静态模型,分析缺乏定量性和系统性的特点,提出了基于时间竞争理论的战略决策的CART分析模型;最后,利用不等精度测量的思想,建立了战略决策过程动态评估的数学模型。
(3)战略决策实施的最佳时机。本文兼顾信息的不确定性与价值,利用极大熵准则构建了由决策者的决策能力、决策信息函数和决策机会函数复合而成的一般决策效能函数,并确定了最佳决策时机,克服了以前相关研究的片面与不足。同时,将熵引入决策评价之中,提出了改进的决策风险评价的三维熵度量方法。
(4)战略决策实施的偏差预景与补救。首先,将数据挖掘技术与预景法联合于一起进行战略决策实施过程的偏差监控,提出了基于数据挖掘的战略决策实施的偏差预景与补救模型;接着,针对决策预景方案多目标多属性混合型的特点,以及目前关于该方面研究尚不多见的情况,提出了混合多属性偏好评价方法;最后,根据事前预案储备、事中反应快速、事后总结提升的原则,构建了预景过程的信息交流系统。
Recently, with the acceleration of the development of science & technology and the economic globalization, human is stepping into a new age for Time-based Competition (TBC), and the high-velocity competitive environments reveal the requirements of the times for responding to customers and markets rapidly. The second generation of TBC is fast decision-making. It is the inevitable trend of society development, a firm successfully realizes responding to customers rapidly under the conditions that mining the potential opportunities and evading the risks or hazards, through right and effective Fast Strategic Decision-Making (FSDM). This dissertation presented a systematic research of the process of FSDM to meet the high-velocity commercial competitive environmental changes. The velocity model of process of FSDM, restrict factors of speediness for FSDM, optimal opportunity for implementation of FSDM and deviation scenario and remediation were discussed systematically and deeply on the theoretical plane in this dissertation. The creative research work done in this dissertation can be summarized as follows.
(1) The research framework of FSDM. The concepts of high-velocity environments and FSDM were firstly defined. A research framework of FSDM was posed on the basis of analyzing the inducements and characteristics of FSDM. And the idea and basic framework of integration of FSDM was also established based on expounding the necessity of integration of FSDM.
(2) The model of FSDM. The main previous researches about the process of Strategic Decision-Making (SDM) merely took the formulation into account instead of taking the implementation and correction into account. For this purpose, an IFCMOSR velocity model which integrates all of the five links of analyzing, formulating, implementing, monitoring and remedying was constructed. All of the current major analytical models of SDM are almost static and lack of quantitative and systematic. Therefore, a CART analytical model posed in this dissertation reflects the idea of TBC and reveals decision makers’subjective abilities that affect the effectiveness of decision-making. Finally, the dynamic evaluation method of the process of SDM presented in this dissertation by introducing the idea of unequal precision measurement makes up the lack of researches in this field.
(3) Optimal opportunity for implementation of SDM. A general decision-making effectiveness function which is compounded of decision makers’ability, decision-making information function and decision-making opportunity function was built by introducing the rule of maximum entropy, and the optimal decision-making opportunity was also determined. This research on solution of optimal decision-making opportunity in this dissertation gives attention to two or more things of the uncertainty and information value, which can overcome some unilateralism and insufficiency of the previous researches in this field. Besides, an improved three-dimensional entropy measurement method of decision-making risk evaluation was suggested as well by introducing entropy into decision-making evaluation.
(4) Deviation scenario and remediation for implementation of SDM. A systematic model of deviation scenario and remediation for implementation of SDM based on data mining was presented, which will be put into the deviation monitoring. And a mixed multiple attribute preference evaluation method was also put forward aim at the characteristics of multiple objectives and attributes of scenario projects and owing to there is still few research about how to evaluative their orders of good or inferior. Finally, a guarantee system for information exchanging of the process of scenario was presented according to the principles of hiving of spared projects in advance, responding rapidly in the process of scenario, and improvement by summing-up afterwards.
(1)快速战略决策的研究框架。首先,对高速环境和快速战略决策的概念予以界定;其次,在对快速战略决策的诱因和特点分析的基础之上提出了快速战略决策的研究框架;最后,在对快速战略决策集成化的必要性阐述的基础之上提出了快速战略决策集成化的基本框架。
(2)快速战略决策的模型。首先,针对以前关于决策过程的研究大都只考虑了决策的制定,而没有考虑决策的实施与补救的不足,构建了集分析、制定、实施、监控和补救五个环节于一体的快速战略决策的IFCMOSR模型;接着,针对当前主流战略决策分析模型主要为静态模型,分析缺乏定量性和系统性的特点,提出了基于时间竞争理论的战略决策的CART分析模型;最后,利用不等精度测量的思想,建立了战略决策过程动态评估的数学模型。
(3)战略决策实施的最佳时机。本文兼顾信息的不确定性与价值,利用极大熵准则构建了由决策者的决策能力、决策信息函数和决策机会函数复合而成的一般决策效能函数,并确定了最佳决策时机,克服了以前相关研究的片面与不足。同时,将熵引入决策评价之中,提出了改进的决策风险评价的三维熵度量方法。
(4)战略决策实施的偏差预景与补救。首先,将数据挖掘技术与预景法联合于一起进行战略决策实施过程的偏差监控,提出了基于数据挖掘的战略决策实施的偏差预景与补救模型;接着,针对决策预景方案多目标多属性混合型的特点,以及目前关于该方面研究尚不多见的情况,提出了混合多属性偏好评价方法;最后,根据事前预案储备、事中反应快速、事后总结提升的原则,构建了预景过程的信息交流系统。
Recently, with the acceleration of the development of science & technology and the economic globalization, human is stepping into a new age for Time-based Competition (TBC), and the high-velocity competitive environments reveal the requirements of the times for responding to customers and markets rapidly. The second generation of TBC is fast decision-making. It is the inevitable trend of society development, a firm successfully realizes responding to customers rapidly under the conditions that mining the potential opportunities and evading the risks or hazards, through right and effective Fast Strategic Decision-Making (FSDM). This dissertation presented a systematic research of the process of FSDM to meet the high-velocity commercial competitive environmental changes. The velocity model of process of FSDM, restrict factors of speediness for FSDM, optimal opportunity for implementation of FSDM and deviation scenario and remediation were discussed systematically and deeply on the theoretical plane in this dissertation. The creative research work done in this dissertation can be summarized as follows.
(1) The research framework of FSDM. The concepts of high-velocity environments and FSDM were firstly defined. A research framework of FSDM was posed on the basis of analyzing the inducements and characteristics of FSDM. And the idea and basic framework of integration of FSDM was also established based on expounding the necessity of integration of FSDM.
(2) The model of FSDM. The main previous researches about the process of Strategic Decision-Making (SDM) merely took the formulation into account instead of taking the implementation and correction into account. For this purpose, an IFCMOSR velocity model which integrates all of the five links of analyzing, formulating, implementing, monitoring and remedying was constructed. All of the current major analytical models of SDM are almost static and lack of quantitative and systematic. Therefore, a CART analytical model posed in this dissertation reflects the idea of TBC and reveals decision makers’subjective abilities that affect the effectiveness of decision-making. Finally, the dynamic evaluation method of the process of SDM presented in this dissertation by introducing the idea of unequal precision measurement makes up the lack of researches in this field.
(3) Optimal opportunity for implementation of SDM. A general decision-making effectiveness function which is compounded of decision makers’ability, decision-making information function and decision-making opportunity function was built by introducing the rule of maximum entropy, and the optimal decision-making opportunity was also determined. This research on solution of optimal decision-making opportunity in this dissertation gives attention to two or more things of the uncertainty and information value, which can overcome some unilateralism and insufficiency of the previous researches in this field. Besides, an improved three-dimensional entropy measurement method of decision-making risk evaluation was suggested as well by introducing entropy into decision-making evaluation.
(4) Deviation scenario and remediation for implementation of SDM. A systematic model of deviation scenario and remediation for implementation of SDM based on data mining was presented, which will be put into the deviation monitoring. And a mixed multiple attribute preference evaluation method was also put forward aim at the characteristics of multiple objectives and attributes of scenario projects and owing to there is still few research about how to evaluative their orders of good or inferior. Finally, a guarantee system for information exchanging of the process of scenario was presented according to the principles of hiving of spared projects in advance, responding rapidly in the process of scenario, and improvement by summing-up afterwards.
引文
① 参考消息报(世界经济版). 麦肯锡公司预测世界经济未来十大走向[N]. 2006-2-9
① 参考消息报(世界经济版). 如何成功实施企业战略[N]. 2005-8-9
① 参见冯之浚、张念椿:《现代战略研究纲要》,杭州:浙江教育出版社,1998;林存柱:《走向成功:战略控制艺术》,北京:人民出版社,1990;[美]威廉·R·金、戴维·I·克里兰:《战略规划与政策》,上海:上海翻译出版公司,1984。转引自(李景治,罗天虹等 2003, pp.177-178)。
② 参见孙书贤:《战略决策学总论》,北京:军事译文出版社,1992。转引自(李景治,罗天虹等 2003, pp.177-178)。
① 钟义信. 《信息科学原理》. 福州:福建人民出版社, 1988.9
① 复杂性是对理性的测量,式组织在制定或整合决策时试图达到的详尽程度(Fredrickson & Mitchell, 1984: p.399)。
① 参考消息报(世界经济版). 麦肯锡公司预测世界经济未来十大走向[N]. 2006-2-9
① 孙武著.《孙子兵法》, 台海出版, 1997。
① 可以想象到的任何事情(Godet, Michel; Roubelat, Fabrice 1996,p.167);
② 考虑约束条件,所有可能的情况(Godet, Michel; Roubelat, Fabrice 1996,p.167);
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① 参见冯之浚、张念椿:《现代战略研究纲要》,杭州:浙江教育出版社,1998;林存柱:《走向成功:战略控制艺术》,北京:人民出版社,1990;[美]威廉·R·金、戴维·I·克里兰:《战略规划与政策》,上海:上海翻译出版公司,1984。转引自(李景治,罗天虹等 2003, pp.177-178)。
② 参见孙书贤:《战略决策学总论》,北京:军事译文出版社,1992。转引自(李景治,罗天虹等 2003, pp.177-178)。
① 钟义信. 《信息科学原理》. 福州:福建人民出版社, 1988.9
① 复杂性是对理性的测量,式组织在制定或整合决策时试图达到的详尽程度(Fredrickson & Mitchell, 1984: p.399)。
① 参考消息报(世界经济版). 麦肯锡公司预测世界经济未来十大走向[N]. 2006-2-9
① 孙武著.《孙子兵法》, 台海出版, 1997。
① 可以想象到的任何事情(Godet, Michel; Roubelat, Fabrice 1996,p.167);
② 考虑约束条件,所有可能的情况(Godet, Michel; Roubelat, Fabrice 1996,p.167);
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