制造型创业企业柔性生产技术选择与产能决策研究
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摘要
随着科技革命的发展和体制环境的变革，创业已经成为经济发展的原动力，创业企业的运营决策也受到了研究人员的广泛关注。制造型创业企业在创业企业中占有较大比重，相比于行业中原有制造企业，制造型创业企业需要应对更大的市场不确定性，面临着较大的破产风险。柔性生产技术能够帮助制造型创业企业较好应对市场需求的变化，帮助其提高生存概率，是制造型创业企业运营决策的重要组成部分。本文以制造型创业企业为研究对象，旨在研究其柔性生产技术的选择与产能决策。主要内容和创新如下：
（1）以制造型创业企业为研究对象，考虑其在生产中可以选择产量柔性和无柔性生产技术两种，研究其产量柔性生产技术决策的影响因素。制造型创业企业选择产量柔性生产技术的概率随着产量柔性生产技术单位产能成本、单位产量调整成本和负债的增大而减小。
（2）研究制造型创业企业与行业中原有企业的竞争中，二者的产量柔性生产技术决策。在竞争中，制造型创业企业倾向于选择成本较小的无柔性生产技术；当市场需求的波动较大时，行业中原有企业会选择产量柔性技术；随着产量柔性生产技术单位产量调整成本的增大，两企业选择无柔性技术的概率增大。
（3）研究制造型创业企业的品种柔性生产技术选择与产能决策。对比分析品种柔性和无柔性生产技术下，制造型创业企业的最大生存概率，探讨其选择品种柔性生产技术的条件。当负债较大，两种技术的单位产能成本之差较小时，制造型创业企业倾向于选择品种柔性生产技术。
（4）构建制造型创业企业与行业中原有企业竞争的品种柔性生产技术博弈模型，研究二者的竞争均衡。在竞争中，创业企业应选无柔性技术；当产品市场容量的波动较大时，行业中原有企业应选品种柔性技术；当两种产品市场总需求较大时，行业中原有企业选择品种柔性技术能使其获得更多的收益。
（5）考虑制造型创业企业生产两种产品，研究其产量柔性技术与品种柔性技术间的关系。当产品替代率和初始负债较大，市场容量较小时，创业企业更倾向于选择产量品种柔性技术；当产品替代率较大时，在品种柔性技术的基础上增加产量柔性能够改善创业企业的状况，反之却未必有益。
With the development of scientific and technological revolution, entrepreneurship has been considered as an important driving force of the economic development, entrepreneurial firms’ operational decisions also received extensive attention from researchers. In all entrepreneurial firms, start-up manufacturing firms occupy a large proportion. Compared with the established manufacturing firms, they need to deal with larger market uncertainty and greater bankruptcy risk. Flexible manufacturing technologies can help start-ups cope with the demand uncertainties and increase their survival probability. Take start-up manufacturing firms as the research object, this thesis aims at studying their flexible technology choice and capacity decisions. The main work and innovations includes:
(1) The volume-flexible technology choice and capacity decision of start-up manufacturing firm is studied. Start-ups may invest in volume-flexible technology or dedicated technology to maximize their survival probability but not the profit. Te condition under which the start-ups will choose volume-flexible technology is obtained. The result shows that volume flexibility is more preferred by the start-up when the unit production cost of volume-flexible technology, frictional cost and the fixed debt is lower.
(2) The competitive volume-flexible technology decisions of established firms and start-up manufacturing firms were studied. The result shows that in competitive setting, the start-up manufacturing firm is more likely to choose dedicated technology. However, the established firm will choose volume flexibility when the demand variance is high. As the frictional cost of the volume-flexible technology increase, both of them preferred dedicated technology.
(3) The product-flexible technology choice and capacity decision of a start-up which manufactures2products was discussed. After comparing the survival probability of the start-up under the2technologies, the factors that influence the start-up’s thechnology choice is studied. It’s best for the start-up to choose product-flexible technology when the demand variance is higher and the capacity cost of the product-flexible technology is bigger enough than the dedicated technology.
(4) The competitive model between a start-up manufacturing company and an established firm was established, each of which produces2substitutable products. The competitive product-flexible technology choice and capacity decision of the two firms is analyzed. In the competitive setting, the start-up would choose dedicated technology. However, the established firm will choose product flexibility when the demand variance is high and the total market size is large.
(5)Consider a start-up company manufactures2products, the relationship between the volume-flexible technology and product-flexible technology is studied. The result shows that the start-up is more likely to choose volume-and-product flexibility when the2products are less substitutable, the initial debt is bigger and the market size is smaller. Adding volume flexiblility to product flexibility is always beneficial when the2products are more substitutable; otherwise it may not be so useful.
（1）以制造型创业企业为研究对象，考虑其在生产中可以选择产量柔性和无柔性生产技术两种，研究其产量柔性生产技术决策的影响因素。制造型创业企业选择产量柔性生产技术的概率随着产量柔性生产技术单位产能成本、单位产量调整成本和负债的增大而减小。
（2）研究制造型创业企业与行业中原有企业的竞争中，二者的产量柔性生产技术决策。在竞争中，制造型创业企业倾向于选择成本较小的无柔性生产技术；当市场需求的波动较大时，行业中原有企业会选择产量柔性技术；随着产量柔性生产技术单位产量调整成本的增大，两企业选择无柔性技术的概率增大。
（3）研究制造型创业企业的品种柔性生产技术选择与产能决策。对比分析品种柔性和无柔性生产技术下，制造型创业企业的最大生存概率，探讨其选择品种柔性生产技术的条件。当负债较大，两种技术的单位产能成本之差较小时，制造型创业企业倾向于选择品种柔性生产技术。
（4）构建制造型创业企业与行业中原有企业竞争的品种柔性生产技术博弈模型，研究二者的竞争均衡。在竞争中，创业企业应选无柔性技术；当产品市场容量的波动较大时，行业中原有企业应选品种柔性技术；当两种产品市场总需求较大时，行业中原有企业选择品种柔性技术能使其获得更多的收益。
（5）考虑制造型创业企业生产两种产品，研究其产量柔性技术与品种柔性技术间的关系。当产品替代率和初始负债较大，市场容量较小时，创业企业更倾向于选择产量品种柔性技术；当产品替代率较大时，在品种柔性技术的基础上增加产量柔性能够改善创业企业的状况，反之却未必有益。
With the development of scientific and technological revolution, entrepreneurship has been considered as an important driving force of the economic development, entrepreneurial firms’ operational decisions also received extensive attention from researchers. In all entrepreneurial firms, start-up manufacturing firms occupy a large proportion. Compared with the established manufacturing firms, they need to deal with larger market uncertainty and greater bankruptcy risk. Flexible manufacturing technologies can help start-ups cope with the demand uncertainties and increase their survival probability. Take start-up manufacturing firms as the research object, this thesis aims at studying their flexible technology choice and capacity decisions. The main work and innovations includes:
(1) The volume-flexible technology choice and capacity decision of start-up manufacturing firm is studied. Start-ups may invest in volume-flexible technology or dedicated technology to maximize their survival probability but not the profit. Te condition under which the start-ups will choose volume-flexible technology is obtained. The result shows that volume flexibility is more preferred by the start-up when the unit production cost of volume-flexible technology, frictional cost and the fixed debt is lower.
(2) The competitive volume-flexible technology decisions of established firms and start-up manufacturing firms were studied. The result shows that in competitive setting, the start-up manufacturing firm is more likely to choose dedicated technology. However, the established firm will choose volume flexibility when the demand variance is high. As the frictional cost of the volume-flexible technology increase, both of them preferred dedicated technology.
(3) The product-flexible technology choice and capacity decision of a start-up which manufactures2products was discussed. After comparing the survival probability of the start-up under the2technologies, the factors that influence the start-up’s thechnology choice is studied. It’s best for the start-up to choose product-flexible technology when the demand variance is higher and the capacity cost of the product-flexible technology is bigger enough than the dedicated technology.
(4) The competitive model between a start-up manufacturing company and an established firm was established, each of which produces2substitutable products. The competitive product-flexible technology choice and capacity decision of the two firms is analyzed. In the competitive setting, the start-up would choose dedicated technology. However, the established firm will choose product flexibility when the demand variance is high and the total market size is large.
(5)Consider a start-up company manufactures2products, the relationship between the volume-flexible technology and product-flexible technology is studied. The result shows that the start-up is more likely to choose volume-and-product flexibility when the2products are less substitutable, the initial debt is bigger and the market size is smaller. Adding volume flexiblility to product flexibility is always beneficial when the2products are more substitutable; otherwise it may not be so useful.
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