考虑环境因素的中部县域经济发展实证分析及发展模式转变研究
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摘要
县域经济是我国经济运行和发展的基础,具有非常重要的作用,特别是在我国的中部地区,县域经济是经济社会发展的主体,其发展直接关系到中部崛起战略的顺利实施,应该大力发展县域经济。但同时,县域经济发展所导致的环境问题也日益严重,必须予以重视。而目前学术界对我国县域经济的研究仍然较为薄弱,大多数研究停留在对县域经济的简单讨论、范围宽泛的定性描述上,研究得不够系统、深入。特别是关于县域经济与环境协调发展问题的实证研究、考虑环境因素的经济发展模式的定量研究更是少之又少。
本文基于经济增长理论、区域经济理论、可持续发展理论,运用各种统计与计量分析方法对中部县域经济增长、环境压力、经济发展模式等问题进行研究,主要研究内容及创新如下:
1、经济与环境的协调发展。将环境作为特殊的生产要素引入生产函数当中,并考虑环境的管理问题,构建了基于环境消耗与管理的内生经济增长模型。进一步的,通过对模型的均衡增长路径进行分析,发现:从长远来看,环境管理费用的增加对最优均衡增长率和环境存量的提高都有重要作用,但环境管理效率并没有像人们预期的那样对它们产生重要影响。此外,人力资本开发部门、研发部门的生产效率以及研发部门的人力资本存量的提高对可持续最优均衡增长率的提高具有积极的正向作用。
2、中部县域经济增长的主要影响因素。基于跨区域经济增长回归模型,利用中部地区498个县2000-2006年的面板数据对县域经济增长的主要影响因素进行实证分析,找出中部县域经济增长的源泉。通过分析可知,投资、人力资本、城镇化水平与中部县域经济增长正相关,而就业水平、政府财政支出和储蓄水平则与经济增长负相关。同时,县域的区位和地貌状况对经济增长也有显著影响。
构建了中部地区省会城市市区与市郊县经济的VAR模型,并运用脉冲响应分析和方差分解分析方法对市区与市郊县经济的相互动态作用关系进行了分析,结果表明:受省会城市市区扩散作用的影响,市郊县的经济增长速度要高于非市郊县,而市郊县经济的快速协调发展也是促进整个省会城市发展的重要因素。
3、中部县域经济发展所面临的环境压力。从能源消耗、耕地减少与化学化、工业废气排放、工业废水排放、工业固体废弃物五个方面实证分析了中部县域获得经济发展所付出的环境代价,结果表明中部县域在经济快速发展的过程中付出了惨重的环境代价,在资源消耗与污染物排放方面面临着严峻的考验,生态环境的压力进一步加大。
引入ExternE模型、人力资本法、市场价格法对中部县域大气污染和水污染造成的健康损失和农作物减产损失等环境退化成本进行评估,结果表明,中部县域的生态环境遭到了严重破坏,已经严重侵蚀了经济增长成果,这种状况亟需得到改变。
通过对环境治理成本的计算可知,当前中部县域的环境治理投入很低,对环境保护、污染治理的支持力度还不够,这不利于环境再生能力的提高和环境质量的改善,也将导致较高的环境退化成本。
4、面向环境友好的中部县域经济发展模式选择与转变。从新的角度确立县域经济发展模式的划分方法,将中部县域经济发展模式划分为两大类五小类,即依靠要素投入量增加的经济发展模式(又分为外部投资推动模式、自然资源开发模式和劳务经济带动模式)和依靠要素投入效率提高的经济发展模式(又分为制造业集聚模式和农业产业化模式)。
提出面向环境友好的县域经济发展模式选择方法,主要思路为:首先,将中部地区所有县域分为生态县和非生态县,并收集大量数据,对生态县进行模式划分。其次,确定影响县域经济发展模式选择的影响因素及指标,包括经济和社会因素。最后,假定生态县的经济发展模式是环境友好的,以其为训练样本,结合模式选择的影响因素和指标构建判别分析函数,运用判别分析方法对非生态县的发展模式进行分类,判别各个县域应该采取的经济发展模式。此外,随机抽取中部地区50个非生态县作为检验样本,对比它们现有的模式与本文预测的模式,发现有76%的县需要转变现有的发展模式,非生态县的经济发展状况令人担忧,符合现实情况。同时也说明本文所提出方法的正确性,能比较好地解决考虑环境因素的县域经济发展模式选择问题。
提出“集成性模块系统”作为中部县域进行经济发展模式转变的分析框架,对县域经济发展模式的转变进行总体上的探讨。
5、中部县域环境友好型经济发展的政策保障。从经济政策和环境政策两方面对中部县域实现环境友好型经济发展所需的政策支持展开讨论,认为中部县域需要进行有效的产业调整和获得充分的人才支持、财政支持和金融支持以促进经济更快增长。同时,还要通过环境政策的有效实施来保障县域的环境安全,减轻县域的生态压力,从整体上改善县域的可持续发展能力,推动环境友好型经济发展目标的实现。
In China,the county level economy is the foundation of national economy so that it is very important for China's economic development.In particular,it is the principal part of central regional economy.The implementation of "the rise of the middle area" strategy will depend greatly on the county level economic development.Therefore, the government should accelerate the county level economic development.However, the environmental question caused by the county level economic development is more and more serious.It should attract enough attention.At present,the research on the county level economy is still very weak.The existing studies mostly rest on the simple discussion and the qualitative description of the county level economy.They have no enough systematization and depth.Especially there are few quantitative studies on the harmonious development of county level economy and environment and county level economic development pattern considering the environment factor.
This article studies the economic growth,environmental stress and economic development pattern of counties in China's central region through the statistic and econometric techniques based on the economic growth theory,regional economy theory and sustainable development theory.The main studies and innovations are as follows.
1.Harmonious development of county level economy and environment.This article establishes an endogenous growth model based on the environmental consumption and management,which introduces the environment as a special production factor into the production function and considers the environmental management.Furthermore,this article analyzes the balanced growth path and finds that,in the long-term view,the increase of environmental management expenditure is very important for the increase of the balanced growth rate and environmental accumulation,which are not influenced largely by the environmental management efficiency;moreover,the production rate of human capital department and R & D department and the human capital accumulation positively influence the sustainable balanced growth rate.
2.Determinants of the county level economic growth in China's central region. This article examines the determinants of the county-level economic growth with the cross-country growth regression based on the pooled data of 498 counties in China's central region for the period of 2000-2006 to find out the sources of the county level economic growth.The results show that investment,human capital and urbanization are positively related with county level economic growth,while the effects of labor input,fiscal expenditure and household savings are negative.And the location and the physiognomy of counties also have remarkable influences on economic growth.
Furthermore,this article develops the VAR model between the urban district and the suburban county of each capital city in central region,and analyzes the dynamic relationship through impulse response function and variance decomposition.The result shows that the suburb counties,which are influenced by the spread effect from the urban districts,have higher economic growth rates than non-suburb counties. Moreover,developing the suburb county level economy rapidly and harmoniously is vital for the development of provincial capital city.
3.The environmental stress in the process of economic development.This article calculates the environment consumption of counties in central region in the process of economic growth from the five aspects,namely the energy consumption,reduction and chemization of cultivated land,industrial waste gas emission,industrial waste water emission and industrial solid wastes emission.The result shows that the counties are paying a heavy environmental expense in the process of rapid economic development.They face the stem challenges on resources consumption and pollutant emissions and have great stress of ecological environment.
Then,this article evaluates the environment degradation cost through calculating the health damage cost and crop reduction cost caused by the air and water pollution based on ExtemE model,human capital approach and market price approach.The result indicates that the ecological environment has been seriously damaged.This eats into the fruit of economic growth.It is urgent to change this situation.
Through the evaluation of environment governance cost,we can see that there is very low environment governance investment and very weak support for environment protection and pollution control.This is not conducive to the enhancement of environmental regeneration capability and the improvement of environment quality, and will lead to higher environment degradation cost.
4.Selection and transformation of economic development patterns of counties in central region in the environmentally friendly perspective.This article proposes the new classified measure of economic development pattern according to the input and the efficiency of the production factors and divides the economic development pattern into five categories,namely external investment promotion pattern,natural resource exploiture pattern,labor economy promotion pattern,manufacturing industry agglomeration pattern and agricultural industrialization pattern.The first three patterns depend on the increase of the production factors input and the latter two patterns depend on the improvement of the production factors efficiency.
This article proposes a new approach to select the economic development patterns of counties in the environmentally friendly perspective.The main path is: firstly,divide the counties into ecological counties and non-ecological counties and distinguish the economic development patterns of ecological counties in central region based on a mass of data;secondly,choose the factors influencing the selection of economic development patterns of counties,which includes the economic and social factors;finally,the economic development patterns of ecological counties are assumed as the environmentally friendly patterns and taken as the training sample. Then we establish the discriminant function to distinguish the economic development patterns of other non-ecological counties.Furthermore,we compare the current patterns with the expected of 50 non-ecological counties chosen random.The result indicates that 76%of non-ecological counties should transform the patterns.This is consistent with the truth and should be attached importance to.The method used in this article can discriminate the economic development pattern of counties well.It is helpful to solve the selection question of economic development pattern of counties considering the environment factor.
Moreover,this article proposes the "integration module system" as the analysis frame to discuss the transformation of economic development pattern of counties.
5.Policy support for achieving the environmentally friendly economic development.This article discusses the policy support from the economic policy and environmental policy.The following conclusions are reached.The counties in central region should adjust the industry effectively and receive sufficient talent support, fiscal support and financial support to promote the economic growth.At the same time,they should implement the environmental policy effectively to improve the sustainability and achieve the environmentally friendly economic development.
本文基于经济增长理论、区域经济理论、可持续发展理论,运用各种统计与计量分析方法对中部县域经济增长、环境压力、经济发展模式等问题进行研究,主要研究内容及创新如下:
1、经济与环境的协调发展。将环境作为特殊的生产要素引入生产函数当中,并考虑环境的管理问题,构建了基于环境消耗与管理的内生经济增长模型。进一步的,通过对模型的均衡增长路径进行分析,发现:从长远来看,环境管理费用的增加对最优均衡增长率和环境存量的提高都有重要作用,但环境管理效率并没有像人们预期的那样对它们产生重要影响。此外,人力资本开发部门、研发部门的生产效率以及研发部门的人力资本存量的提高对可持续最优均衡增长率的提高具有积极的正向作用。
2、中部县域经济增长的主要影响因素。基于跨区域经济增长回归模型,利用中部地区498个县2000-2006年的面板数据对县域经济增长的主要影响因素进行实证分析,找出中部县域经济增长的源泉。通过分析可知,投资、人力资本、城镇化水平与中部县域经济增长正相关,而就业水平、政府财政支出和储蓄水平则与经济增长负相关。同时,县域的区位和地貌状况对经济增长也有显著影响。
构建了中部地区省会城市市区与市郊县经济的VAR模型,并运用脉冲响应分析和方差分解分析方法对市区与市郊县经济的相互动态作用关系进行了分析,结果表明:受省会城市市区扩散作用的影响,市郊县的经济增长速度要高于非市郊县,而市郊县经济的快速协调发展也是促进整个省会城市发展的重要因素。
3、中部县域经济发展所面临的环境压力。从能源消耗、耕地减少与化学化、工业废气排放、工业废水排放、工业固体废弃物五个方面实证分析了中部县域获得经济发展所付出的环境代价,结果表明中部县域在经济快速发展的过程中付出了惨重的环境代价,在资源消耗与污染物排放方面面临着严峻的考验,生态环境的压力进一步加大。
引入ExternE模型、人力资本法、市场价格法对中部县域大气污染和水污染造成的健康损失和农作物减产损失等环境退化成本进行评估,结果表明,中部县域的生态环境遭到了严重破坏,已经严重侵蚀了经济增长成果,这种状况亟需得到改变。
通过对环境治理成本的计算可知,当前中部县域的环境治理投入很低,对环境保护、污染治理的支持力度还不够,这不利于环境再生能力的提高和环境质量的改善,也将导致较高的环境退化成本。
4、面向环境友好的中部县域经济发展模式选择与转变。从新的角度确立县域经济发展模式的划分方法,将中部县域经济发展模式划分为两大类五小类,即依靠要素投入量增加的经济发展模式(又分为外部投资推动模式、自然资源开发模式和劳务经济带动模式)和依靠要素投入效率提高的经济发展模式(又分为制造业集聚模式和农业产业化模式)。
提出面向环境友好的县域经济发展模式选择方法,主要思路为:首先,将中部地区所有县域分为生态县和非生态县,并收集大量数据,对生态县进行模式划分。其次,确定影响县域经济发展模式选择的影响因素及指标,包括经济和社会因素。最后,假定生态县的经济发展模式是环境友好的,以其为训练样本,结合模式选择的影响因素和指标构建判别分析函数,运用判别分析方法对非生态县的发展模式进行分类,判别各个县域应该采取的经济发展模式。此外,随机抽取中部地区50个非生态县作为检验样本,对比它们现有的模式与本文预测的模式,发现有76%的县需要转变现有的发展模式,非生态县的经济发展状况令人担忧,符合现实情况。同时也说明本文所提出方法的正确性,能比较好地解决考虑环境因素的县域经济发展模式选择问题。
提出“集成性模块系统”作为中部县域进行经济发展模式转变的分析框架,对县域经济发展模式的转变进行总体上的探讨。
5、中部县域环境友好型经济发展的政策保障。从经济政策和环境政策两方面对中部县域实现环境友好型经济发展所需的政策支持展开讨论,认为中部县域需要进行有效的产业调整和获得充分的人才支持、财政支持和金融支持以促进经济更快增长。同时,还要通过环境政策的有效实施来保障县域的环境安全,减轻县域的生态压力,从整体上改善县域的可持续发展能力,推动环境友好型经济发展目标的实现。
In China,the county level economy is the foundation of national economy so that it is very important for China's economic development.In particular,it is the principal part of central regional economy.The implementation of "the rise of the middle area" strategy will depend greatly on the county level economic development.Therefore, the government should accelerate the county level economic development.However, the environmental question caused by the county level economic development is more and more serious.It should attract enough attention.At present,the research on the county level economy is still very weak.The existing studies mostly rest on the simple discussion and the qualitative description of the county level economy.They have no enough systematization and depth.Especially there are few quantitative studies on the harmonious development of county level economy and environment and county level economic development pattern considering the environment factor.
This article studies the economic growth,environmental stress and economic development pattern of counties in China's central region through the statistic and econometric techniques based on the economic growth theory,regional economy theory and sustainable development theory.The main studies and innovations are as follows.
1.Harmonious development of county level economy and environment.This article establishes an endogenous growth model based on the environmental consumption and management,which introduces the environment as a special production factor into the production function and considers the environmental management.Furthermore,this article analyzes the balanced growth path and finds that,in the long-term view,the increase of environmental management expenditure is very important for the increase of the balanced growth rate and environmental accumulation,which are not influenced largely by the environmental management efficiency;moreover,the production rate of human capital department and R & D department and the human capital accumulation positively influence the sustainable balanced growth rate.
2.Determinants of the county level economic growth in China's central region. This article examines the determinants of the county-level economic growth with the cross-country growth regression based on the pooled data of 498 counties in China's central region for the period of 2000-2006 to find out the sources of the county level economic growth.The results show that investment,human capital and urbanization are positively related with county level economic growth,while the effects of labor input,fiscal expenditure and household savings are negative.And the location and the physiognomy of counties also have remarkable influences on economic growth.
Furthermore,this article develops the VAR model between the urban district and the suburban county of each capital city in central region,and analyzes the dynamic relationship through impulse response function and variance decomposition.The result shows that the suburb counties,which are influenced by the spread effect from the urban districts,have higher economic growth rates than non-suburb counties. Moreover,developing the suburb county level economy rapidly and harmoniously is vital for the development of provincial capital city.
3.The environmental stress in the process of economic development.This article calculates the environment consumption of counties in central region in the process of economic growth from the five aspects,namely the energy consumption,reduction and chemization of cultivated land,industrial waste gas emission,industrial waste water emission and industrial solid wastes emission.The result shows that the counties are paying a heavy environmental expense in the process of rapid economic development.They face the stem challenges on resources consumption and pollutant emissions and have great stress of ecological environment.
Then,this article evaluates the environment degradation cost through calculating the health damage cost and crop reduction cost caused by the air and water pollution based on ExtemE model,human capital approach and market price approach.The result indicates that the ecological environment has been seriously damaged.This eats into the fruit of economic growth.It is urgent to change this situation.
Through the evaluation of environment governance cost,we can see that there is very low environment governance investment and very weak support for environment protection and pollution control.This is not conducive to the enhancement of environmental regeneration capability and the improvement of environment quality, and will lead to higher environment degradation cost.
4.Selection and transformation of economic development patterns of counties in central region in the environmentally friendly perspective.This article proposes the new classified measure of economic development pattern according to the input and the efficiency of the production factors and divides the economic development pattern into five categories,namely external investment promotion pattern,natural resource exploiture pattern,labor economy promotion pattern,manufacturing industry agglomeration pattern and agricultural industrialization pattern.The first three patterns depend on the increase of the production factors input and the latter two patterns depend on the improvement of the production factors efficiency.
This article proposes a new approach to select the economic development patterns of counties in the environmentally friendly perspective.The main path is: firstly,divide the counties into ecological counties and non-ecological counties and distinguish the economic development patterns of ecological counties in central region based on a mass of data;secondly,choose the factors influencing the selection of economic development patterns of counties,which includes the economic and social factors;finally,the economic development patterns of ecological counties are assumed as the environmentally friendly patterns and taken as the training sample. Then we establish the discriminant function to distinguish the economic development patterns of other non-ecological counties.Furthermore,we compare the current patterns with the expected of 50 non-ecological counties chosen random.The result indicates that 76%of non-ecological counties should transform the patterns.This is consistent with the truth and should be attached importance to.The method used in this article can discriminate the economic development pattern of counties well.It is helpful to solve the selection question of economic development pattern of counties considering the environment factor.
Moreover,this article proposes the "integration module system" as the analysis frame to discuss the transformation of economic development pattern of counties.
5.Policy support for achieving the environmentally friendly economic development.This article discusses the policy support from the economic policy and environmental policy.The following conclusions are reached.The counties in central region should adjust the industry effectively and receive sufficient talent support, fiscal support and financial support to promote the economic growth.At the same time,they should implement the environmental policy effectively to improve the sustainability and achieve the environmentally friendly economic development.
引文
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