城市地下空间需求预测方法及指标相关性实证研究
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摘要
随着国内城市越来越多地开发利用地下空间,许多城市开始编制城市地下空间规划。地下空间需求是制定城市地下空间开发战略目标和规划布局的重要基础,对明确地下空间开发的内容与方向、发展强度与空间布局有重要指导意义。
论文在回顾总结国内外城市地下空间开发利用经验的基础上,指出城市地下空间开发的动因和需求来自城市发展遇到的土地与交通、资源与环境的巨大压力。借鉴心理学和经济学的概念,总结归纳了地下空间需求的内容和特性,提出地下空间需求具有经济学的弹性特征。指出需求预测的核心应基于城市各分系统自身需求机理的立体化发展需要,结合厦门城市地下空间规划,总结提炼了城市分系统的单项指标标定法的地下空间需求预测方法,建立了地下空间需求预测的指标体系。指出地下空间开发的分系统单项需求强度指标与标定是预测城市地下空间需求量的关键。
针对影响地下空间开发强度的土地-交通特征因素,借鉴城市空间经济学相关理论,对主要的土地-交通特征因素:地价、容积率、用地类型、轨道交通量的影响机理进行了分析。表明地价是推动地下空间开发的主要经济动力,用地类型和客流量则主要反映了土地上人的活动方式所对应的地下空间功能特征和需求强度,其后归纳了影响地下空间开发强度的土地-交通特征指标。
为了验证和进一步分析特征指标与地下空间开发强度的量化关系,收集整理东京四区地下空间开发的实际数据并进行量化实证研究。根据地下空间及特征指标空间分布,统计分析了地下空间开发强度与容积率的比值变化及空间分布规律。对地下空间开发强度与特征指标的相关性分析结果表明:地价、容积率和客流量与地下空间开发强度有显著的相关性,基于特征指标可量化推导地下空间开发强度的特征值。最后基于分系统单项指标标定法,对厦门市地下空间需求量进行了测算。
With more and more native cities began to development and utilize underground space, many cities compiled the planning of urban underground space. Demand for underground space is the foundation of strategic objectives and planning of urban underground space, and has important guiding significance for confirming the content, direction, strength and spatial distribution of underground space.
This paper reviewed the development and utilization of urban underground space experience at home and abroad, pointed out that the motives and the demand of urban underground space development comes from the enormous pressure caused by land, transport, resources and environment problems encountered by cities. Draw on the concept of psychology and economics, summarized the content and features of demand for underground space, put forward that the demand for underground space has the characteristics of flexibility always talked in economics. Pointed out that the core of the demand forecast should be based on the three-dimensional development needs of the city's various sub-systems’own mechanism. Combination with urban underground space planning experience in Xiamen, proposed a demand forecast method based on sub-systems and calibration of the individual indicators, established an indicator system for the method, pointed out that the key of the demand forecast is to calibrate the demand strength index.
Some land - traffic characteristics impact underground space development intensity. With the relevant theory from economics of urban space, the main land - traffic characteristics: land price, floor area ratio, and land use types, mass transit were analyzed, show that the land price is the main economic driving force to promote the development of underground space. Land type, and traffic is mainly a reflection of functional characteristics and demand intensity of underground space caused by activities on land, summed up the land - traffic indicators impacting the intensity of underground space.
In order to verify and further analysis the relationship between indicators and the strength of underground space development collected the actual data of underground space development of the four central districts in Tokyo to quantify and empirical research. According to the spatial distribution of underground space and land– traffic indicators, made statistical analysis of the underground space development intensity spatial distribution and the ratio with volume. The results show that the land price, volume, traffic volume has a significant correlation with underground space development intensity, these indicators can be derived to quantify the strength of underground space development eigenvalue. At last, forecasted the demand for underground space in Xiamen city.
论文在回顾总结国内外城市地下空间开发利用经验的基础上,指出城市地下空间开发的动因和需求来自城市发展遇到的土地与交通、资源与环境的巨大压力。借鉴心理学和经济学的概念,总结归纳了地下空间需求的内容和特性,提出地下空间需求具有经济学的弹性特征。指出需求预测的核心应基于城市各分系统自身需求机理的立体化发展需要,结合厦门城市地下空间规划,总结提炼了城市分系统的单项指标标定法的地下空间需求预测方法,建立了地下空间需求预测的指标体系。指出地下空间开发的分系统单项需求强度指标与标定是预测城市地下空间需求量的关键。
针对影响地下空间开发强度的土地-交通特征因素,借鉴城市空间经济学相关理论,对主要的土地-交通特征因素:地价、容积率、用地类型、轨道交通量的影响机理进行了分析。表明地价是推动地下空间开发的主要经济动力,用地类型和客流量则主要反映了土地上人的活动方式所对应的地下空间功能特征和需求强度,其后归纳了影响地下空间开发强度的土地-交通特征指标。
为了验证和进一步分析特征指标与地下空间开发强度的量化关系,收集整理东京四区地下空间开发的实际数据并进行量化实证研究。根据地下空间及特征指标空间分布,统计分析了地下空间开发强度与容积率的比值变化及空间分布规律。对地下空间开发强度与特征指标的相关性分析结果表明:地价、容积率和客流量与地下空间开发强度有显著的相关性,基于特征指标可量化推导地下空间开发强度的特征值。最后基于分系统单项指标标定法,对厦门市地下空间需求量进行了测算。
With more and more native cities began to development and utilize underground space, many cities compiled the planning of urban underground space. Demand for underground space is the foundation of strategic objectives and planning of urban underground space, and has important guiding significance for confirming the content, direction, strength and spatial distribution of underground space.
This paper reviewed the development and utilization of urban underground space experience at home and abroad, pointed out that the motives and the demand of urban underground space development comes from the enormous pressure caused by land, transport, resources and environment problems encountered by cities. Draw on the concept of psychology and economics, summarized the content and features of demand for underground space, put forward that the demand for underground space has the characteristics of flexibility always talked in economics. Pointed out that the core of the demand forecast should be based on the three-dimensional development needs of the city's various sub-systems’own mechanism. Combination with urban underground space planning experience in Xiamen, proposed a demand forecast method based on sub-systems and calibration of the individual indicators, established an indicator system for the method, pointed out that the key of the demand forecast is to calibrate the demand strength index.
Some land - traffic characteristics impact underground space development intensity. With the relevant theory from economics of urban space, the main land - traffic characteristics: land price, floor area ratio, and land use types, mass transit were analyzed, show that the land price is the main economic driving force to promote the development of underground space. Land type, and traffic is mainly a reflection of functional characteristics and demand intensity of underground space caused by activities on land, summed up the land - traffic indicators impacting the intensity of underground space.
In order to verify and further analysis the relationship between indicators and the strength of underground space development collected the actual data of underground space development of the four central districts in Tokyo to quantify and empirical research. According to the spatial distribution of underground space and land– traffic indicators, made statistical analysis of the underground space development intensity spatial distribution and the ratio with volume. The results show that the land price, volume, traffic volume has a significant correlation with underground space development intensity, these indicators can be derived to quantify the strength of underground space development eigenvalue. At last, forecasted the demand for underground space in Xiamen city.
引文
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[15]罗兰.地铁站域地下空间开发与交通-土地特征相关性研究:[硕士学位论文].北京:清华大学,2008
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[17]李德仁,王树良,李德毅.空间数据挖掘理论与应用.北京:科学出版社,2006,7
[18]戴维·W·S·黄,杰·李.ArcView GIS与ArcGIS地理信息统计分析(张学良).北京:中国财政经济出版社,2008,1~4
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[20]刘湘.城市地下空间资源评估研究——以北京市旧城区为例:[硕士学位论文].北京:清华大学,2004
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[22] H. Takasaki, H. Chikahisa, Y. Yuasa. Planning and mapping of subsurface space in Japan. Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology. 2000, 15(3):287~301
[23]林枫,杨林德.新世纪初的城市人防工程建设(一)——历史、现状与展望.地下空间工程学报,2005,1(2):161~166
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[26] J. Edelenbos, R. Monnikhof, J. Haasnoot, et al. Strategic Study on the Utilization of underground space in the Netherlands. Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology. 1998, 13(2):159~165
[27] Kimmo R·nk·, Jouko Ritola, Kari Rauhala. Underground space in land-use planning. 1998, 13(1):39~49
[28] Working Group No.4, International Tunnelling Association. Planning and mapping of underground space– an overview. 2000, 15(3):271~286
[29]童林旭.地下空间与城市现代化发展.北京:中国建筑工业出版社,2005,45~46
[30]王辉.基于GIS的城市地下空间资源调查评估系统研究:[硕士学位论文].北京:清华大学,2007
[31]曹小曙,林强.世界城市地铁发展历程与规律.地理学报,2008,63(12):1257~1267
[32]吴子啸,朱莉莉,李长波.停车需求预测方法及应用.城市交通,2008,6(4):77~81
[33]陈立道,朱雪岩.城市地下空间规划理论与实践.上海:同济大学出版社,1997,73~96
[34]丁成日.城市空间规划——理论、方法与实践.北京:高等教育出版社,2007,1~315
[35]阿瑟·奥莎利文.城市经济学(周京奎).北京:北京大学出版社,2008,1~402
[36]萧愉.应用线性规划方法确定住宅建设中高层与多层比例问题的探讨.住宅科技,1982,(6):9~11
[37]许学强,周一星,宁越敏.城市地理学.北京:高等教育出版社,1996,193
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