跨国资源类并购定价及绩效研究
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摘要
进入21世纪以来，伴随我国经济的高速增长和外汇储备急剧上升，中国资源类企业积极走出国门，实施跨国并购。但在这个过程中，企业并购缺乏战略性考虑，并购时机把握不好，定价能力参差不齐，收购价格不合理，并购之后绩效改善不明显等问题成为当前我国资源类企业跨国并购的突出问题。因此，本文从最为影响跨国并购定价实践操作的因素出发，并根据企业并购最新的理论进展，挑选出权益产量、能源价格、全球经济形势、流动性状况、外国政府外资政策、企业规模比等六个指标，将传统现金流折现模型进行扩展，建立本文的跨国资源并购定价模型，并对其影响企业并购定价的机制进行梳理归纳。同时，还使用假设检验的方法对全球和我国资源类企业并购的绩效进行了分析。
在上述理论框架的基础上，本文选择了1991-2009年间全球发生的资源类并购为样本，并从中选择了具有典型意义的14个样本进行计量分析。分析发现，权益产量、资源价格、全球经济增长是影响资源类并购定价的主要原因，这三个变量对定价的弹性分别为1.23、1.04和1.21，除此之外，全球资源类并购定价也显现出了一定的资产价格特点，会随着全球流动性状况而水涨船高。而政府外资限制会抬高资源类并购定价，企业规模有助于降低并购定价。在并购绩效方面，本文选取11个样本，进行假设检验，分析发现，并购对股价的短期影响比较大，而对企业盈利能力无论从短期还是长期均有明显的提高作用。
根据实证分析，本文认为，资源产品价格、市场流动性和全球经济增长率是影响并购定价的三个重要外部因素，因此，当这三个因素有利于并购定价时则是资源类并购的好时机,据此本文提出在经济衰退期的中期是并购的最佳时期。在资源类并购的国别选择上应采取不同的策略：一是对于存在竞争特征的发达对象国，要做到战略上审慎，战术上积极。二是对于资源较丰富、政治稳定性较差的欠发达国家对象国，要做到战略上积极，战术上审慎。三是对于中立开放的发达对象国，要做到战略战术上都要积极。在选择目标企业时：一要着重考虑储量较高、但产量较低的企业。二要对于不同规模的并购对象，实施不同的定价策略。
Number of resources companies has been seen soaring in China since its economy enteredinto the phase of heavy industry production. On top of that, China’s rapid increase in foreignreserve plus its on-course shift in economy growth model have underpinned the fact that Chineseenterprises are in great need of “going global” to make overseas M&A. On the other hand,Chinese companies are usually lack of experiences in M&A; having uneven shortcomings inpricing capability losing from un-justified acquisition cost as well as unable to restructure andintegrate the company effectively after the M&A (no significant increase in the performances afterthe M&A in many cases), these are all major issues faced by Chinese resources companies whenmaking cross-border M&A. Therefore, this paper takes the practical elements that affectingcross-border M&A pricing as the starting point, use the latest development of M&A theories as theguideline, selected6parameters including: production in accordance to equity holding; energyprices; global macro-economy condition; liquidity status; oversea governments’ polices on foreigncapital; corporation scale comparison etc to expand on the conventional DCF model; establish thispapers’ cross-border M&A pricing model; it also sorts out and summarizes the mechanism thataffect M&A pricing. Meanwhile, it also uses the hypothetical testing to analyze the global anddomestic resources companies’ M&A performances.
Under the theoretical framework mentioned above, this paper uses the global resources M&Adeals between1991-2009as the sample, selected14paradigm among them to carry out thequantitative analysis. The findings are: in the global resources M&A cases studied, the3parameters that affect the M&A pricing the most are equity output; energy prices; global economicgrowth; their elasticity to the pricing are1.23、1.04and1.21respectively. Also, the globalresources M&A pricing also appeared to share some of the characteristics of asset pricing, it goesup and down in line with the global liquidity status. The restriction on foreign capital will bring upthe resources M&A, and the corporation scale will have favorable effect on the M&A pricing. In terms of after M&A performances, the11cases selected to perform the hypothetical test suggestthat M&A would have a relative large impact on the stock price in the near-term, and significantlyimprove the profitability of the corporations in both short-term and long-term.
This paper concludes: it is evident that energy commodity prices、market liquidity and globaleconomic growth rate are the3macro factors that affect the M&A pricing, therefore, when thesethree factors are favorable to the M&A pricing, it is the best time to actively seek for resourcesM&A, especially in the middle of an economic downturn. Regarding the issue of selectingdifferent strategies in different countries to make resources M&A: firstly, in developed countrieswhere competitive trait is obvious, it is necessary to use cautious strategy, whereas take initiativesand active tactic. Secondly, in resource rich but less developed and political stable countries, it isnecessary to take initiatives and use active strategy, whereas cautious tactic. Thirdly, in neutralopen developed countries, take initiatives and active in both strategy and tactics. When choosingthe target companies, first look for enterprises with rich reserves but relatively low production,then use different pricing strategies for different scale of Target Company.
在上述理论框架的基础上，本文选择了1991-2009年间全球发生的资源类并购为样本，并从中选择了具有典型意义的14个样本进行计量分析。分析发现，权益产量、资源价格、全球经济增长是影响资源类并购定价的主要原因，这三个变量对定价的弹性分别为1.23、1.04和1.21，除此之外，全球资源类并购定价也显现出了一定的资产价格特点，会随着全球流动性状况而水涨船高。而政府外资限制会抬高资源类并购定价，企业规模有助于降低并购定价。在并购绩效方面，本文选取11个样本，进行假设检验，分析发现，并购对股价的短期影响比较大，而对企业盈利能力无论从短期还是长期均有明显的提高作用。
根据实证分析，本文认为，资源产品价格、市场流动性和全球经济增长率是影响并购定价的三个重要外部因素，因此，当这三个因素有利于并购定价时则是资源类并购的好时机,据此本文提出在经济衰退期的中期是并购的最佳时期。在资源类并购的国别选择上应采取不同的策略：一是对于存在竞争特征的发达对象国，要做到战略上审慎，战术上积极。二是对于资源较丰富、政治稳定性较差的欠发达国家对象国，要做到战略上积极，战术上审慎。三是对于中立开放的发达对象国，要做到战略战术上都要积极。在选择目标企业时：一要着重考虑储量较高、但产量较低的企业。二要对于不同规模的并购对象，实施不同的定价策略。
Number of resources companies has been seen soaring in China since its economy enteredinto the phase of heavy industry production. On top of that, China’s rapid increase in foreignreserve plus its on-course shift in economy growth model have underpinned the fact that Chineseenterprises are in great need of “going global” to make overseas M&A. On the other hand,Chinese companies are usually lack of experiences in M&A; having uneven shortcomings inpricing capability losing from un-justified acquisition cost as well as unable to restructure andintegrate the company effectively after the M&A (no significant increase in the performances afterthe M&A in many cases), these are all major issues faced by Chinese resources companies whenmaking cross-border M&A. Therefore, this paper takes the practical elements that affectingcross-border M&A pricing as the starting point, use the latest development of M&A theories as theguideline, selected6parameters including: production in accordance to equity holding; energyprices; global macro-economy condition; liquidity status; oversea governments’ polices on foreigncapital; corporation scale comparison etc to expand on the conventional DCF model; establish thispapers’ cross-border M&A pricing model; it also sorts out and summarizes the mechanism thataffect M&A pricing. Meanwhile, it also uses the hypothetical testing to analyze the global anddomestic resources companies’ M&A performances.
Under the theoretical framework mentioned above, this paper uses the global resources M&Adeals between1991-2009as the sample, selected14paradigm among them to carry out thequantitative analysis. The findings are: in the global resources M&A cases studied, the3parameters that affect the M&A pricing the most are equity output; energy prices; global economicgrowth; their elasticity to the pricing are1.23、1.04and1.21respectively. Also, the globalresources M&A pricing also appeared to share some of the characteristics of asset pricing, it goesup and down in line with the global liquidity status. The restriction on foreign capital will bring upthe resources M&A, and the corporation scale will have favorable effect on the M&A pricing. In terms of after M&A performances, the11cases selected to perform the hypothetical test suggestthat M&A would have a relative large impact on the stock price in the near-term, and significantlyimprove the profitability of the corporations in both short-term and long-term.
This paper concludes: it is evident that energy commodity prices、market liquidity and globaleconomic growth rate are the3macro factors that affect the M&A pricing, therefore, when thesethree factors are favorable to the M&A pricing, it is the best time to actively seek for resourcesM&A, especially in the middle of an economic downturn. Regarding the issue of selectingdifferent strategies in different countries to make resources M&A: firstly, in developed countrieswhere competitive trait is obvious, it is necessary to use cautious strategy, whereas take initiativesand active tactic. Secondly, in resource rich but less developed and political stable countries, it isnecessary to take initiatives and use active strategy, whereas cautious tactic. Thirdly, in neutralopen developed countries, take initiatives and active in both strategy and tactics. When choosingthe target companies, first look for enterprises with rich reserves but relatively low production,then use different pricing strategies for different scale of Target Company.
引文
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