基于卫星及数值模式资料的云水凝物的气候特征分析和检验
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摘要
云是一种重要的天气现象,也是一种重要的气候因子。由于人们对云的形成和变化认识不足,云及其反馈的不确定性已经成为模式预测未来气候变化的不确定性的最大来源。水凝物含量是描述云物理性质的重要物理量,其分布和变化与云的外观、相态密切相关,也是云光学特性的整体表现。了解水凝物含量的分布和变化规律,对理解和认识云的辐射性质及强迫效应、改善模式的预报性能都有重要意义。
本文基于多种卫星资料、再分析资料,对全球尺度以及东亚地区的云水路径(cloud water path, CWP)、液态水路径(liquid water path, LWP)以及冰水路径(ice water path, IWP)的气候分布特征以及变化规律进行了分析。并以西太平洋台风“暹芭(Chaba)”为例,使用Advanced Regional Eta-coordinate Model (AREM)和Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)两个中尺度模式对台风活动过程中的水凝物的分布进行模拟,然后借助卫星探测和反演结果,对AREM和WRF两个模式云水云冰的模拟能力进行了评估。取得的结果如下：
(1)全球水凝物的气候分布特征
利用International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project(ISCCP)、Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I)、Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS)多年的云产品数据以及European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Interim Reanalysis(ERA-Interim)和National Centers for Environmental Prediction(NCEP) Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR)再分析资料,讨论了CWP、LWP和IWP的全球尺度的分布特征以及长期变化趋势。
通过对ISCCP、ERA-Interim和CFSR的CWP资料的分析,结果表明,全球CWP的分布及变化与大尺度的环流形势及水汽的分布密切相关,具有很强的地域性特征。如陆面的CWP高值中心主要位于非洲中部、东南亚地区以及南美洲的热带雨林区；而洋面CWP则集中在赤道辐合带、南太平洋辐合带以及南北半球中纬度地区。1995-2009期间内,ISCCP、ERA-Interim和CFSR三种资料的CWP均表现为升高的趋势,线性拟合结果为ISCCP每年1.05g m-2,ERA-Interim为每年0.13g m-2,CFSR为每年0.18g m-2。
研究结果显示,ERA-Interim、CFSR再分析资料与SSM/I反演结果的洋面LWP的数值和分布有较好的一致性,而ISCCP的LWP普遍偏小。对IWP而言,ISCCP和ERA-Interim、CFSR资料具有类似的分布形势；与ISCCP相比,ERA-Interim偏小,而CFSR偏高。长期变化趋势表明,1995-2009期间,ISCCP、ERA-Interim和CFSR的洋面LWP都一致表现出增加的趋势,而SSM/I的变化趋势不明显。ISCCP的陆面和洋面IWP表现出增加的趋势。
基于MLS数据的对流层上层云冰含量的分析结果表明,云冰主要分布在非洲中部、东南亚、南美洲亚马孙流域,以及热带辐合带、南太平洋辐合带,其分布与250hPa高度上升运动的发生频次有很好的对应,并存在明显的季节变化。与MLS反演结果相比,ERA-Interim低估了对流层上层的云冰含量,CFSR则略有高估。
(2)东亚地区水凝物的气候特征
使用ISCCP云产品分析了东亚地区水凝物分布的区域性特征。结果表明,CWP主要集中在帕米尔高原迎风坡、中国西南、中国东部以及日本上空,CWP最大值可以超过140g m-2。LWP高值中心集中在四川盆地和中国东海地区,这种分布形势与这些地区层状云的富集有关。IWP的分布与地形抬升、对流活动有较好的对应,其中帕米尔高原和青藏高原以及中国东海地区IWP都较高。
中国东部地区CWP和LWP都比高原地区偏高,但两个区域的IWP没有太大差异。这两个区域的水凝物季节变化规律有所不同,这种差异是由两地主导云型的不同所引起。长期变化趋势结果表明,高原地区和CWP和IWP都表现为逐渐增加的趋势,而LWP却在减少；中国东部地区CWP、LWP和IWP都呈增加趋势。再分析资料(ERA-Interim和CFSR)给出的冬季水凝物(CWP、LWP和IWP)的分布与ISCCP资料类似,但在夏季则表现出较大差异,此外,再分析资料的水凝物季节变化和长期变化趋势也和ISCCP存在一定的差异。
(3)基于微波产品的中尺度模式水凝物检验
利用TMI的探测及反演结果,结合微波辐射传输模式,就2004年17号台风暹芭(Chaba)个例,对AREM模式和WRF两个中尺度模式的水凝物模拟能力进行了检验。数值试验结果表明,两个模式模拟的台风路径与实际台风路径基本一致,模拟的降水与TMI反演降水也基本相同。在此基础上,利用TMI水凝物反演产品直接检验了AREM、WRF模拟的水凝物结构。论文还探讨了利用TMI探测的微波亮温间接检验了AREM和WRF对水凝物的模拟能力,即以AREM和WRF模式模拟的大气结构和水凝物结构作为微波辐射传输模式的输入参数,计算了相应大气层顶的微波亮温,通过对比该模拟亮温和TMI实测亮温的异同,实现了对AREM和WRF模式水凝物结构的检验。研究结果表明,两个中尺度模式对水凝物的模拟都有所不足。其中两模拟的液相粒子含量偏多；AREM模拟的冰粒子含量偏小,WRF对冰粒子的模拟能力稍优于AREM。
Cloud is an important phenomenon, and an important factor that influence climate as well. Because of the inadequacy in understanding the formations and changes of clouds, clouds and cloud feedbacks have become the major uncertainties in estimating climate change with models. Hydrometeor contents are physical quantities that describe the mass of water in clouds. Distributions and changes of hydrometeors are directly related with appearance and phase of cloud. Hydrometeors also show the composite manifestation of cloud structures and microphysical characteristics. So obtaining a comprehensive knowledge about hydrometeor contents is crucial in understanding the radiative properties of cloud, and in improving the performance of models.
Using multiple satellite observations, reanalysis, climatological characteristics about the cloud water path (CWP), liquid water path (LWP) and ice water path (IWP) on both global scale and East Asia are analyzed. What is more, two meso-scale numeric models, i.e. Advanced Regional Eta-coordinate Model (AREM) and Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) are used to simulate typhoon "Chaba". And then, the simulated hydrometeors are evaluated by using measured and retrieved products of TMI. The preliminary results are listed as follows.
(1) Global climatological characteristics of hydrometeors
Based on cloud datasets from International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP), Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I), Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) as well as European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Interim Reanalysis (ERA-Interim) and National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), climatological characteristics and trend of hydrometeors over the globe are discussed.
The result from ISCCP, ERA-Interim and CFSR shows that, distributions of CWP are greatly related with the large-scale circulation patterns and distributions of water vapor. Furthermore, cloud water shows great geographical incoherence. CWP on the lands are mainly located over rain forest in Central Africa, Southeast Asia, and South America; on the oceans, CWP are concentrated in ITCZ, SPCZ and the mid-latitudes in the northern and southern hemispheres. In the time period between1995and2009, CWP data of ISCCP, ERA-Interim and CFSR all show an increasing trend. Linear trends for each of the datasets are1.05g m-2yr-1(ISCCP),0.13(ERA-Interim) and0.18g m-2yr-1(CFSR).
Results indicate that, LWP of ERA-Interim, CFSR as well as SSM/I show good agreement in magnitudes and distributions over the oceans, while LWP of ISCCP is drier than others. In the terms of IWP, ISCCP, ERA-Interim and CFSR show similar distribution pattern. Compared with IWP of ISCCP, ERA-Interim underestimates the magnitude, while CFSR produces more IWP. LWP of ISCCP, ERA-Interim and CFSR show consistent increasing trend over the oceans, while the trend of SSM/I is not significant. IWP of ISCCP shows an increasing trend over both lands and oceans.
By analyzing MLS data, the results reveal that the upper tropospheric cloud ice is mainly distributed in the Central Africa, Southeast Asia, the Amazon Basin of South America, as well as the ITCZ and SPCZ. The distribution of IWC shows a good correspondence with the occurrences frequency of updraft at250hPa, and shows a remarkable seasonal variety. Compared with the retrieved data of MLS, ERA-Interim underestimated the cloud ice content, while CFSR overestimate the magnitude slightly.
(2) Climatic characteristics of hydrometeors in East Asia
Focusing on the hydrometeors in East Asia, cloud products of ISCCP are analyzed. Cloud water is mainly concentrated in the windward side of the Pamir Plateau, Southwest China, East China, and Japan, with the maximum above140g m-2. Liquid water path centers are located in the Sichuan Basin and the East China Sea, this distribution is related to the enrichment of stratiform cloud in these areas. Distributions of ice water path show good agreement with orographic uplifting and convective activities. Ice water path over the Pamir Plateau, the Tibetan Plateau and East China Sea is higher than other regions.
CWP and LWP in East China show higher magnitudes than those over Tibetan Plateau. But ice water path between the two regions shows no significant difference. Seasonal varieties of hydrometeors of the Tibetan Plateau and East China are different, which is caused by the different types of dominant cloud. The long-term trend over the Tibetan Plateau shows a growing trend in CWP and IWP, while LWP is decreasing. In East China, CWP, LWP and IWP exhibits an increasing trend.
Reanalysis (ERA-Interim and CFSR) show consistent distributions and magnitudes with ISCCP in winter. Conversely, great departures can be found among the three datasets in summer. Moreover, seasonal verities and long-term trend of hydrometeors of reanalysis datasets also show some differences.
(3) Evaluations of hydrometeors of meso-scale numerical models based on microwave products
Using the measured and retrieved products of TMI and combined with microwave radiative transfer model, simulation capability of hydrometeor variables of typhoon Chaba (0417) in AREM and WRF are verified. Results indicate that, the simulated track and rain of typhoon are consistent with the best track and retrieved rain from TMI respectively. Furthermore, hydrometeor structures and distributions are verified with retrieved data from TMI directly. Then indirect-approach evaluation of hydrometeors is applied with the measured brightness temperatures (TBs). That is, the simulated hydrometeor variables as well as the simulated atmospheric structures (temperature, humidity, sea surface status) are used as input data of microwave radiative transfer model to calculate equivalent microwave TBs. By comparing simulated and measured TBs, hydrometeors structures of AREM and WRF are verified indirectly. The results show that, there are some deficiencies in representing hydrometeors in both AREM and WRF. The two meso-scale models overestimated liquid hydrometeors, and AREM underestimated ice hydrometeors, WRF shows a relatively good skill in representing ice hydrometeors than AREM.
本文基于多种卫星资料、再分析资料,对全球尺度以及东亚地区的云水路径(cloud water path, CWP)、液态水路径(liquid water path, LWP)以及冰水路径(ice water path, IWP)的气候分布特征以及变化规律进行了分析。并以西太平洋台风“暹芭(Chaba)”为例,使用Advanced Regional Eta-coordinate Model (AREM)和Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)两个中尺度模式对台风活动过程中的水凝物的分布进行模拟,然后借助卫星探测和反演结果,对AREM和WRF两个模式云水云冰的模拟能力进行了评估。取得的结果如下：
(1)全球水凝物的气候分布特征
利用International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project(ISCCP)、Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I)、Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS)多年的云产品数据以及European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Interim Reanalysis(ERA-Interim)和National Centers for Environmental Prediction(NCEP) Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR)再分析资料,讨论了CWP、LWP和IWP的全球尺度的分布特征以及长期变化趋势。
通过对ISCCP、ERA-Interim和CFSR的CWP资料的分析,结果表明,全球CWP的分布及变化与大尺度的环流形势及水汽的分布密切相关,具有很强的地域性特征。如陆面的CWP高值中心主要位于非洲中部、东南亚地区以及南美洲的热带雨林区；而洋面CWP则集中在赤道辐合带、南太平洋辐合带以及南北半球中纬度地区。1995-2009期间内,ISCCP、ERA-Interim和CFSR三种资料的CWP均表现为升高的趋势,线性拟合结果为ISCCP每年1.05g m-2,ERA-Interim为每年0.13g m-2,CFSR为每年0.18g m-2。
研究结果显示,ERA-Interim、CFSR再分析资料与SSM/I反演结果的洋面LWP的数值和分布有较好的一致性,而ISCCP的LWP普遍偏小。对IWP而言,ISCCP和ERA-Interim、CFSR资料具有类似的分布形势；与ISCCP相比,ERA-Interim偏小,而CFSR偏高。长期变化趋势表明,1995-2009期间,ISCCP、ERA-Interim和CFSR的洋面LWP都一致表现出增加的趋势,而SSM/I的变化趋势不明显。ISCCP的陆面和洋面IWP表现出增加的趋势。
基于MLS数据的对流层上层云冰含量的分析结果表明,云冰主要分布在非洲中部、东南亚、南美洲亚马孙流域,以及热带辐合带、南太平洋辐合带,其分布与250hPa高度上升运动的发生频次有很好的对应,并存在明显的季节变化。与MLS反演结果相比,ERA-Interim低估了对流层上层的云冰含量,CFSR则略有高估。
(2)东亚地区水凝物的气候特征
使用ISCCP云产品分析了东亚地区水凝物分布的区域性特征。结果表明,CWP主要集中在帕米尔高原迎风坡、中国西南、中国东部以及日本上空,CWP最大值可以超过140g m-2。LWP高值中心集中在四川盆地和中国东海地区,这种分布形势与这些地区层状云的富集有关。IWP的分布与地形抬升、对流活动有较好的对应,其中帕米尔高原和青藏高原以及中国东海地区IWP都较高。
中国东部地区CWP和LWP都比高原地区偏高,但两个区域的IWP没有太大差异。这两个区域的水凝物季节变化规律有所不同,这种差异是由两地主导云型的不同所引起。长期变化趋势结果表明,高原地区和CWP和IWP都表现为逐渐增加的趋势,而LWP却在减少；中国东部地区CWP、LWP和IWP都呈增加趋势。再分析资料(ERA-Interim和CFSR)给出的冬季水凝物(CWP、LWP和IWP)的分布与ISCCP资料类似,但在夏季则表现出较大差异,此外,再分析资料的水凝物季节变化和长期变化趋势也和ISCCP存在一定的差异。
(3)基于微波产品的中尺度模式水凝物检验
利用TMI的探测及反演结果,结合微波辐射传输模式,就2004年17号台风暹芭(Chaba)个例,对AREM模式和WRF两个中尺度模式的水凝物模拟能力进行了检验。数值试验结果表明,两个模式模拟的台风路径与实际台风路径基本一致,模拟的降水与TMI反演降水也基本相同。在此基础上,利用TMI水凝物反演产品直接检验了AREM、WRF模拟的水凝物结构。论文还探讨了利用TMI探测的微波亮温间接检验了AREM和WRF对水凝物的模拟能力,即以AREM和WRF模式模拟的大气结构和水凝物结构作为微波辐射传输模式的输入参数,计算了相应大气层顶的微波亮温,通过对比该模拟亮温和TMI实测亮温的异同,实现了对AREM和WRF模式水凝物结构的检验。研究结果表明,两个中尺度模式对水凝物的模拟都有所不足。其中两模拟的液相粒子含量偏多；AREM模拟的冰粒子含量偏小,WRF对冰粒子的模拟能力稍优于AREM。
Cloud is an important phenomenon, and an important factor that influence climate as well. Because of the inadequacy in understanding the formations and changes of clouds, clouds and cloud feedbacks have become the major uncertainties in estimating climate change with models. Hydrometeor contents are physical quantities that describe the mass of water in clouds. Distributions and changes of hydrometeors are directly related with appearance and phase of cloud. Hydrometeors also show the composite manifestation of cloud structures and microphysical characteristics. So obtaining a comprehensive knowledge about hydrometeor contents is crucial in understanding the radiative properties of cloud, and in improving the performance of models.
Using multiple satellite observations, reanalysis, climatological characteristics about the cloud water path (CWP), liquid water path (LWP) and ice water path (IWP) on both global scale and East Asia are analyzed. What is more, two meso-scale numeric models, i.e. Advanced Regional Eta-coordinate Model (AREM) and Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) are used to simulate typhoon "Chaba". And then, the simulated hydrometeors are evaluated by using measured and retrieved products of TMI. The preliminary results are listed as follows.
(1) Global climatological characteristics of hydrometeors
Based on cloud datasets from International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP), Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I), Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) as well as European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Interim Reanalysis (ERA-Interim) and National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), climatological characteristics and trend of hydrometeors over the globe are discussed.
The result from ISCCP, ERA-Interim and CFSR shows that, distributions of CWP are greatly related with the large-scale circulation patterns and distributions of water vapor. Furthermore, cloud water shows great geographical incoherence. CWP on the lands are mainly located over rain forest in Central Africa, Southeast Asia, and South America; on the oceans, CWP are concentrated in ITCZ, SPCZ and the mid-latitudes in the northern and southern hemispheres. In the time period between1995and2009, CWP data of ISCCP, ERA-Interim and CFSR all show an increasing trend. Linear trends for each of the datasets are1.05g m-2yr-1(ISCCP),0.13(ERA-Interim) and0.18g m-2yr-1(CFSR).
Results indicate that, LWP of ERA-Interim, CFSR as well as SSM/I show good agreement in magnitudes and distributions over the oceans, while LWP of ISCCP is drier than others. In the terms of IWP, ISCCP, ERA-Interim and CFSR show similar distribution pattern. Compared with IWP of ISCCP, ERA-Interim underestimates the magnitude, while CFSR produces more IWP. LWP of ISCCP, ERA-Interim and CFSR show consistent increasing trend over the oceans, while the trend of SSM/I is not significant. IWP of ISCCP shows an increasing trend over both lands and oceans.
By analyzing MLS data, the results reveal that the upper tropospheric cloud ice is mainly distributed in the Central Africa, Southeast Asia, the Amazon Basin of South America, as well as the ITCZ and SPCZ. The distribution of IWC shows a good correspondence with the occurrences frequency of updraft at250hPa, and shows a remarkable seasonal variety. Compared with the retrieved data of MLS, ERA-Interim underestimated the cloud ice content, while CFSR overestimate the magnitude slightly.
(2) Climatic characteristics of hydrometeors in East Asia
Focusing on the hydrometeors in East Asia, cloud products of ISCCP are analyzed. Cloud water is mainly concentrated in the windward side of the Pamir Plateau, Southwest China, East China, and Japan, with the maximum above140g m-2. Liquid water path centers are located in the Sichuan Basin and the East China Sea, this distribution is related to the enrichment of stratiform cloud in these areas. Distributions of ice water path show good agreement with orographic uplifting and convective activities. Ice water path over the Pamir Plateau, the Tibetan Plateau and East China Sea is higher than other regions.
CWP and LWP in East China show higher magnitudes than those over Tibetan Plateau. But ice water path between the two regions shows no significant difference. Seasonal varieties of hydrometeors of the Tibetan Plateau and East China are different, which is caused by the different types of dominant cloud. The long-term trend over the Tibetan Plateau shows a growing trend in CWP and IWP, while LWP is decreasing. In East China, CWP, LWP and IWP exhibits an increasing trend.
Reanalysis (ERA-Interim and CFSR) show consistent distributions and magnitudes with ISCCP in winter. Conversely, great departures can be found among the three datasets in summer. Moreover, seasonal verities and long-term trend of hydrometeors of reanalysis datasets also show some differences.
(3) Evaluations of hydrometeors of meso-scale numerical models based on microwave products
Using the measured and retrieved products of TMI and combined with microwave radiative transfer model, simulation capability of hydrometeor variables of typhoon Chaba (0417) in AREM and WRF are verified. Results indicate that, the simulated track and rain of typhoon are consistent with the best track and retrieved rain from TMI respectively. Furthermore, hydrometeor structures and distributions are verified with retrieved data from TMI directly. Then indirect-approach evaluation of hydrometeors is applied with the measured brightness temperatures (TBs). That is, the simulated hydrometeor variables as well as the simulated atmospheric structures (temperature, humidity, sea surface status) are used as input data of microwave radiative transfer model to calculate equivalent microwave TBs. By comparing simulated and measured TBs, hydrometeors structures of AREM and WRF are verified indirectly. The results show that, there are some deficiencies in representing hydrometeors in both AREM and WRF. The two meso-scale models overestimated liquid hydrometeors, and AREM underestimated ice hydrometeors, WRF shows a relatively good skill in representing ice hydrometeors than AREM.
引文
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