哥伦比亚与中国的外交关系（1980-2010）：中国和拉美的非对称关系
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摘要
作为对中国和哥伦比亚非对称关系的陈述,我认为由于在生产能力等方面有差距,中哥两国的贸易关系是不对称的,这体现在了两国贸易差额的演进过程中:自1990年代以来,哥伦比亚从中国进口的产品已经超过了哥伦比亚对中国的出口量。两国政府积极发展双边贸易,相互出口上都有了巨大的增长,但目前哥伦比亚在与中国的贸易中还是存在着巨大的赤字。由于两国在发展水平上存有差距,这种状况在近期还难以改变,中国在贸易中处于强势地位,哥伦比亚相对处于弱势。不仅如此,哥伦比亚至今没有一种能在中国市场大量销售的产品,而许多其他拉美国家具备了这种能力并扭转了与中国贸易过程中的不对称局面。
在此条件下,我希望解决的主要问题就是哥伦比亚在生产能力与中国相比十分有限的情况下可以在多大程度上扭转与对华贸易的这种逆差局面。我最关注的乃是哥伦比亚增加对中国出口的可能性大小,因此我安排了以下假设:为减少与中国贸易中的赤字,哥伦比亚在对华的商品销售中应关注于那些战略性内陆省份:这些省份与哥伦比亚的生产能力差距较沿海发达省份来说相对较小,并且可以作为哥伦比亚商品的潜在市场。事实上,本文的主要目的就是检验这些假设是否可行。另外,我们认为由于近来特别是这十年来中国在相关区域的“领导权”的增强,已经存在有促进双方合作和进入中国市场的相关重要机制。
第一章的内容包含了理论框架的构建和对1949—2010年间中国—拉美关系的介绍。对中哥贸易关系发展史的解读建立在“不对称”理论和上文所提到的布兰德利·沃麦克教授所提出的“领导权”理论。我将解释两国关系中存在的不对等差距以及它们产生的原因。接下来,我会仔细的分析中国在拉丁美洲的“领导权”的建立以及与相关国家的交涉,例如巴西、智利、阿根廷、墨西哥和委内瑞拉等,它们都可以被视为中国在该地区的战略伙伴。
在第二章中,为了更好的理解中国在哥伦比亚的相关活动,我分析了1980—2010年间双方贸易的发展情况。我描绘了历史上双方交易的主要货物,试图以此来寻找哥伦比亚在中国市场上稳定且具有潜力的畅销产品。此外我还分析了双方的贸易差额,勾勒出了我在前面理论框架中所提出的两国在经济和生产能力方面的差异。接着,我将注意力放在中国对哥伦比亚的直接投资上,并试着去寻找这些投资的集中领域在哪里以及中国的外商直接投资在哥伦比亚所占的份额。
第三章是本文的中心章节,对中哥贸易关系进行细致的分析。在章节3.1中,我将中哥两国自1980年以来外交关系的发展进行了介绍。在章节3.2中,通过调查两国在进出口领域所各占的份额、两国公司在对方国内的发展情况以及慈善捐助乃至教育交流计划等方面的情况,我希望判断出双方对于彼此的重视程度。作为哥伦比亚政府的一个杰出成就和中国政府自信态势的反映,2009年在波哥大召开的第二届中国—拉美经贸年会促进了哥伦比亚境内中国跨国公司的发展。章节3.3主要介绍了影响两国贸易的各种限制和阻碍,这其中主要的就是由于中哥两国贸易的不对称性所催生的哥伦比亚政府对华商品的反倾销法案。为了解释两国在双边框架之上的贸易关系,我将中国与美国、西班牙和日本进行了对比,这其中考虑的因素包括直接投资、贸易差额和最主要的进口与出口商品。我选择美国因为它是哥伦比亚最主要的贸易伙伴,在直接投资方面领域也是占据首要位置;在2008年世界金融危机之前,西班牙对哥伦比亚的外国直接投资量居于第二,而且由于它是哥伦比亚的前殖民宗主国,西班牙同样是哥伦比亚的重要贸易伙伴;在最后一个案例中,我选择了日本,因为它是亚洲最大的经济体,是中国在亚欧大陆上最最要的贸易伙伴,而且日本在世界上也是仅次于美国的经济强国。我所进行的这些对比有两个目标:一、研究哥伦比亚与其它这些国家的贸易关系是否也是非对称性的;二、找出哥伦比亚与中国的贸易同它与世界其它主要国家的贸易之间的相同点和不同之处。
加入亚太经济合作论坛有助于巩固中哥关系,而且由于同作为多边经济组织的一员,两国的不对称性也许会相对减少,因此第四章将分析中国在此问题上的立场。基于对两国贸易关系的分析,我认为两国有签署自由贸易协定的可能。我将进而分析该假设的可行性,分析哥伦比亚与中国各省的经济走向,包括地区生产总产值、进出口量、主要的进出口货物以及对外直接投资等等。通过这种方法,我希望调查两国生产能力的不对称性在地区层面上是否也会像在全国层面上那样坚不可摧,并进而判断哥伦比亚各省是否有机会战胜这种不对称性。
This is a paper on the history of trade between the Republic of Colombia and the People’s Republic of China, which embraces the thirty of years of the establishment of diplomatic relations between both countries. As statement of the problem, I argue that trade relations are asymmetric since there is a disparity of capacities, which is reflected in the evolution of the balance of trade: since the early 1990s, Colombia has imported from China more products than those Colombia has exported. The two governments have promoted bilateral trade actively and national exports have increased greatly in both cases, but nowadays Colombia faces an enormous deficit in the balance of trade with respect to China. Since the level of development is quite dissimilar from one country to another, the situation is unlikely to change in the near future and China plays the role of the stronger while Colombia plays the weaker. In addition, Colombia still has not found a product to be sold in great scale in the Chinese market like other countries in Latin America already did without having such asymmetries with China.
Under these conditions, the main puzzle I try to solve is to what extent Colombia is able to reduce the deficit in the balance of trade with respect to China, since Colombia’s productive capacities are limited compared to the Chinese. I am concerned about the possibilities of increasing Colombian exports to China, so I formulate the following hypothesis: as a means to reduce the deficit in the balance of trade with respect to China, when trying to sell products Colombia could focus on strategic Chinese provinces where disparities of capacities are more tenuous than the ones existing at the national level and that represent potential markets for Colombian products too. In fact, the main objective of the paper is to determine whether this hypothesis is feasible or not. Moreover, we argue that there are already important mechanisms of bilateral cooperation to further stimulate such approach to the Chinese market as a result of the spread of the Chinese leadership throughout the region, especially during the last decade.
Until now there were only few works published on either economic or diplomatic relations between Colombia and China but this is the first one that embraces the period 1980-2010, what makes this paper a new. The holistic historical view, the arguments on asymmetry proposed by professor Brantly Womack -that came to me through professor Myunsik Ham- and the making of constant comparisons with other countries in specific sections of the paper allowed me to elaborate an innovative analysis of trade that I consider as the main contribution of this work. I trust it may enhance knowledge of China in Colombia and vice versa as well as mutual understanding and mutual cooperation. I also hope it encourages further investigations by students and scholars not only from the two countries but also from other Latinamerican and Asian countries.
在此条件下,我希望解决的主要问题就是哥伦比亚在生产能力与中国相比十分有限的情况下可以在多大程度上扭转与对华贸易的这种逆差局面。我最关注的乃是哥伦比亚增加对中国出口的可能性大小,因此我安排了以下假设:为减少与中国贸易中的赤字,哥伦比亚在对华的商品销售中应关注于那些战略性内陆省份:这些省份与哥伦比亚的生产能力差距较沿海发达省份来说相对较小,并且可以作为哥伦比亚商品的潜在市场。事实上,本文的主要目的就是检验这些假设是否可行。另外,我们认为由于近来特别是这十年来中国在相关区域的“领导权”的增强,已经存在有促进双方合作和进入中国市场的相关重要机制。
第一章的内容包含了理论框架的构建和对1949—2010年间中国—拉美关系的介绍。对中哥贸易关系发展史的解读建立在“不对称”理论和上文所提到的布兰德利·沃麦克教授所提出的“领导权”理论。我将解释两国关系中存在的不对等差距以及它们产生的原因。接下来,我会仔细的分析中国在拉丁美洲的“领导权”的建立以及与相关国家的交涉,例如巴西、智利、阿根廷、墨西哥和委内瑞拉等,它们都可以被视为中国在该地区的战略伙伴。
在第二章中,为了更好的理解中国在哥伦比亚的相关活动,我分析了1980—2010年间双方贸易的发展情况。我描绘了历史上双方交易的主要货物,试图以此来寻找哥伦比亚在中国市场上稳定且具有潜力的畅销产品。此外我还分析了双方的贸易差额,勾勒出了我在前面理论框架中所提出的两国在经济和生产能力方面的差异。接着,我将注意力放在中国对哥伦比亚的直接投资上,并试着去寻找这些投资的集中领域在哪里以及中国的外商直接投资在哥伦比亚所占的份额。
第三章是本文的中心章节,对中哥贸易关系进行细致的分析。在章节3.1中,我将中哥两国自1980年以来外交关系的发展进行了介绍。在章节3.2中,通过调查两国在进出口领域所各占的份额、两国公司在对方国内的发展情况以及慈善捐助乃至教育交流计划等方面的情况,我希望判断出双方对于彼此的重视程度。作为哥伦比亚政府的一个杰出成就和中国政府自信态势的反映,2009年在波哥大召开的第二届中国—拉美经贸年会促进了哥伦比亚境内中国跨国公司的发展。章节3.3主要介绍了影响两国贸易的各种限制和阻碍,这其中主要的就是由于中哥两国贸易的不对称性所催生的哥伦比亚政府对华商品的反倾销法案。为了解释两国在双边框架之上的贸易关系,我将中国与美国、西班牙和日本进行了对比,这其中考虑的因素包括直接投资、贸易差额和最主要的进口与出口商品。我选择美国因为它是哥伦比亚最主要的贸易伙伴,在直接投资方面领域也是占据首要位置;在2008年世界金融危机之前,西班牙对哥伦比亚的外国直接投资量居于第二,而且由于它是哥伦比亚的前殖民宗主国,西班牙同样是哥伦比亚的重要贸易伙伴;在最后一个案例中,我选择了日本,因为它是亚洲最大的经济体,是中国在亚欧大陆上最最要的贸易伙伴,而且日本在世界上也是仅次于美国的经济强国。我所进行的这些对比有两个目标:一、研究哥伦比亚与其它这些国家的贸易关系是否也是非对称性的;二、找出哥伦比亚与中国的贸易同它与世界其它主要国家的贸易之间的相同点和不同之处。
加入亚太经济合作论坛有助于巩固中哥关系,而且由于同作为多边经济组织的一员,两国的不对称性也许会相对减少,因此第四章将分析中国在此问题上的立场。基于对两国贸易关系的分析,我认为两国有签署自由贸易协定的可能。我将进而分析该假设的可行性,分析哥伦比亚与中国各省的经济走向,包括地区生产总产值、进出口量、主要的进出口货物以及对外直接投资等等。通过这种方法,我希望调查两国生产能力的不对称性在地区层面上是否也会像在全国层面上那样坚不可摧,并进而判断哥伦比亚各省是否有机会战胜这种不对称性。
This is a paper on the history of trade between the Republic of Colombia and the People’s Republic of China, which embraces the thirty of years of the establishment of diplomatic relations between both countries. As statement of the problem, I argue that trade relations are asymmetric since there is a disparity of capacities, which is reflected in the evolution of the balance of trade: since the early 1990s, Colombia has imported from China more products than those Colombia has exported. The two governments have promoted bilateral trade actively and national exports have increased greatly in both cases, but nowadays Colombia faces an enormous deficit in the balance of trade with respect to China. Since the level of development is quite dissimilar from one country to another, the situation is unlikely to change in the near future and China plays the role of the stronger while Colombia plays the weaker. In addition, Colombia still has not found a product to be sold in great scale in the Chinese market like other countries in Latin America already did without having such asymmetries with China.
Under these conditions, the main puzzle I try to solve is to what extent Colombia is able to reduce the deficit in the balance of trade with respect to China, since Colombia’s productive capacities are limited compared to the Chinese. I am concerned about the possibilities of increasing Colombian exports to China, so I formulate the following hypothesis: as a means to reduce the deficit in the balance of trade with respect to China, when trying to sell products Colombia could focus on strategic Chinese provinces where disparities of capacities are more tenuous than the ones existing at the national level and that represent potential markets for Colombian products too. In fact, the main objective of the paper is to determine whether this hypothesis is feasible or not. Moreover, we argue that there are already important mechanisms of bilateral cooperation to further stimulate such approach to the Chinese market as a result of the spread of the Chinese leadership throughout the region, especially during the last decade.
Until now there were only few works published on either economic or diplomatic relations between Colombia and China but this is the first one that embraces the period 1980-2010, what makes this paper a new. The holistic historical view, the arguments on asymmetry proposed by professor Brantly Womack -that came to me through professor Myunsik Ham- and the making of constant comparisons with other countries in specific sections of the paper allowed me to elaborate an innovative analysis of trade that I consider as the main contribution of this work. I trust it may enhance knowledge of China in Colombia and vice versa as well as mutual understanding and mutual cooperation. I also hope it encourages further investigations by students and scholars not only from the two countries but also from other Latinamerican and Asian countries.
引文
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