产业发展对城市蔓延影响的差异性分析——以长江经济带104个城市为例
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摘要
经济由高速增长向高质量转变的背景下,土地城市化快于人口城市化而带来的城市蔓延不利于城市的高质量可持续发展。基于2001～2015年长江经济带面板数据考察了产业发展对城市蔓延的差异性影响,研究发现:(1)总体上,在产业结构方面,随着第二产业就业比重的增加,城市蔓延度提高。而随着第三产业就业比重增加时,城市蔓延减缓,这其中起主要作用的是生活性服务业。(2)从城市规模角度来看,第二产业对城市蔓延的影响,在中小城市起显著的作用,而在大城市不显著。第三产业在大城市起显著的抑制性作用,而在中小城市不显著,这主要与不同城市规模下集聚经济效益的发挥有关。(3)从蔓延类型角度来看,推动城市蔓延向集约型方向发展的主要是第三产业中的生活性服务业,而第二产业以及生产性服务业推动城市蔓延向过度蔓延方向发展。长江经济带应合理布局第二产业,大力发展第三产业,提高产业的集聚效应,同时避免不合理开发和盲目招商引资而造成的城市蔓延。
Under the background of the rapid economic transition from high-speed growth to high-quality development, urban sprawl, which is due to the land urbanization beyond population urbanization, is barely beneficial for high-quality and sustainable development. According to the data from 2001 to 2015 on the Yangtze River Economic Belt, the differential impact of industrial development on urban sprawl is examined. The results generally prove that:(1) on the first aspect of industrial structure, with the growing proportion of employment in the secondary industry, the degree of urban sprawl increases; nevertheless, with the advent of increasing proportion of employment in the tertiary industry, the pace of urban sprawl decreases;(2) on the second aspect of urban scale, it is the influence of the secondary industry on urban sprawl that plays a significant role in small and medium cities but not in large cities. The tertiary industry plays a prominent inhibitory role in large cities but not in small and medium cities, which mainly relates to the economic benefits of aggregation under different urban scales;(3) on the third aspect of the types of urban sprawl, it is the life service in the tertiary industry that promotes urban sprawl towards intensive development, while the secondary and the productive service industry promote the urban sprawl to excessive sprawling. All in all, in the Yangtze River Economic Belt, the secondary industry should be rationally laid out, the tertiary industry should be vigorously developed, the agglomeration effect of the industry should be improved, and the urban sprawl that is caused by unreasonable development and blind investment attraction should be avoided.
Under the background of the rapid economic transition from high-speed growth to high-quality development, urban sprawl, which is due to the land urbanization beyond population urbanization, is barely beneficial for high-quality and sustainable development. According to the data from 2001 to 2015 on the Yangtze River Economic Belt, the differential impact of industrial development on urban sprawl is examined. The results generally prove that:(1) on the first aspect of industrial structure, with the growing proportion of employment in the secondary industry, the degree of urban sprawl increases; nevertheless, with the advent of increasing proportion of employment in the tertiary industry, the pace of urban sprawl decreases;(2) on the second aspect of urban scale, it is the influence of the secondary industry on urban sprawl that plays a significant role in small and medium cities but not in large cities. The tertiary industry plays a prominent inhibitory role in large cities but not in small and medium cities, which mainly relates to the economic benefits of aggregation under different urban scales;(3) on the third aspect of the types of urban sprawl, it is the life service in the tertiary industry that promotes urban sprawl towards intensive development, while the secondary and the productive service industry promote the urban sprawl to excessive sprawling. All in all, in the Yangtze River Economic Belt, the secondary industry should be rationally laid out, the tertiary industry should be vigorously developed, the agglomeration effect of the industry should be improved, and the urban sprawl that is caused by unreasonable development and blind investment attraction should be avoided.
引文
[1] 张帆.中国城市蔓延的影响因素分析——基于35个大中城市面板数据的实证研究[J].湖北社会科学,2015(5):69-72.ZHANG F.Analysis of the influencing factors of urban sprawl in china:an empirical study bas-ed on panel data of 35 large and medium cities[J].Hubei Social Sciences,2015(5):69-72.
[2] 王家庭,谢郁,卢星辰,等.产业发展是否推动了中国的城市蔓延?——基于35个大中城市面板数据的实证检验[J].西安交通大学学报(社会科学版),2017(7):9-18.WANG J T,XIE Y,LU X C,et al.Has the industrial development promoted urban sprawl?:An empirical study based on the panel data of 35 large and medium-sized cities in china[J].Journal of Xi’an Jiaotong University(Social Science Edition) ,2017(7):9-18.
[3] 李强,高楠.城市蔓延的生态环境效应研究——基于34个大中城市面板数据的分析[J].中国人口科学,2016(6):58-67.LI Q,GAO N.A study on the effect of urban sprawl on ecological environment:An empirical st-udy based on 34 cities municipal panel data[J].China Population Science,2016(6):58-67.
[4] 李效顺,曲福田,陈友偲,等.经济发展与城市蔓延的Logistic曲线假说及其验证——基于华东地区典型城市的考察[J].自然资源学报,2012(5):714-722.LI X S,QU F T,CHEN Y S,et al.Hypothesis and validation on the logistic curve of economic development and urban sprawl:Based on the investigation of the typical cities in east china[J] .Journal of Natural Resources,2012(5):714-722.
[5] 冷智花,付畅俭.工业化促进了城市扩张吗?[J].经济学家,2016(1):50-57.LENG Z H,FU C J.Does industrialization promote urban expansion?[J].Economist,2016(1):50-57.
[6] 梁辉,王春凯,陈果.我国大城市蔓延过程的异质性与影响因素——来自35个城市的面板数据分析[J].城市发展研究,2017(11):118-124.LIANG H,WANG C K,CHEN G.The heterogeneity and influencing factors of unban sprawl in china’s large cities:A panel data analysis of 35 cities[J].Urban Development Research,2017(11):118-124.
[7] 卢丽文,张毅,李永盛.中国人口城镇化影响因素研究——基于31个省域的空间面板数据[J].地域研究与开发,2014(6):54-59.LU L W,ZHANG Y,LI Y S.The factors influence on china population urbanization:Based on 31 provincial spatial panel data[J].Regional Research and Development,2014(6):54-59.
[8] 周游,谭光荣.空间视角下生产性服务业集聚对城市土地集约利用的影响研究[J].中国土地科学,2016(10):37-46.ZHOU Y,TAN G R.The impacts of productive services agglomeration on the intensity of urban land use from the spatial perspective[J].China Land Science,2016(10):37-46.
[9] 李善同,李华香.城市服务行业分布格局特征及演变趋势研究[J].产业经济研究,2014(5):1-10.LI S T,LI H X.On the characteristics and evolution trends of the distribution pattern of service industries[J].Industrial Economics Research,2014(5):1-10.
[10] 韩峰,王琢卓,杨海余.产业结构对城镇土地集约利用的影响研究[J].资源科学,2013(2):388-395.HAN F,WANG Z Z,Y H Y.The effect of industrial structure on intensive urban land use[J],Resources Science,2013(2):388-395.
[11] JOHN E HASSE,RICHARD G LATHROP.Land resource impact indicators of urban sprawl[J] .Applied Geography ,2003(23):159-175.
[12] SIERRA CLUB.Sierra club report on sprawl[R].http://www.sierraclub.org/sprawl,1998.
[13] 刘洪银,王向.城市蔓延与服务业发展——基于城市面板数据的实证研究[J].财贸研究,2015(3):1-11.LIU H Y,WANG X.Urban sprawl and the services development:based on city panel data[J].Finance and Trade Research,2015(3):1-11.
[14] 董维,蔡之兵.城镇化类型与城市发展战略——来自城市蔓延指数的证据[J].东北大学学报(社会科学版),2016(3):137-142.DONG W,CAI Z B.Types of urbanization and urban development strategies:Based on the urban sprawl index[J].Journal of Northeastern University(Social Science Edition),2016(3):137-142.
[15] 张琳琳,岳文泽,范蓓蕾.中国大城市蔓延的测度研究——以杭州市为例[J].地理科学,2014(4):394-399.ZHANG L L,XUE W Z,FAN P L.A study on the measurement of the spread of big cities in china:A case study of hangzhou[J].Geographical Science,2014(4):394-399.
[16] 李因果,何晓群.面板数据聚类方法及应用[J].统计研究,2010(9):73-77.LI Y G,HE X Q.Panel data clustering method and application[J].Statistical Research,2010(9):73-77.
[17] 陈国亮,陈建军.产业关联、空间地理与二三产业共同集聚——来自中国212个城市的经验考察[J].管理世界,2012(4):82-100.CHEN G L,CHEN J J.Industrial correlation,spatial geography and the integration of secondary and third industries:An empirical study from 212 cities in China [J].Management World 2014(4):394-399.
(1)由于个别城市的数据缺失严重以及一个城市行政区划进行了调整,在此进行了剔除,同时对于建成区面积年变化超过50 km2的城市进行剔除。
(2)本文借鉴李因果,何晓群(2010)[16]的面板聚类分析方法,综合考虑面板数据“绝对指标”、“增量指标”及其“时序波动”特征先进行聚类分析,然后构建三个特征基础上的面板综合距离指标得出最终的聚类分析结果,将其分为集约蔓延型、轻微蔓延型和过度蔓延型.
(3)本文研究为长江经济带104个城市市辖区城市蔓延情况,故地图中所出现的图文数据为104个城市市辖区城市蔓延情况,空白处为未研究地带.
(4)国家统计局:http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/tjbz/hyflbz/.
(5)国务院.《关于调整城市规模划分标准的通知》,2014:以城区人口为统计口径将城市划分为5类:城市人口 1 000 万以上的为超大城市、500～1 000 万为特大城市、100万～500万为大城市、50～100万为中等城市、50万以下为小城市.
(6)受篇幅限制,在此不具体汇报稳健性回归结果.
[2] 王家庭,谢郁,卢星辰,等.产业发展是否推动了中国的城市蔓延?——基于35个大中城市面板数据的实证检验[J].西安交通大学学报(社会科学版),2017(7):9-18.WANG J T,XIE Y,LU X C,et al.Has the industrial development promoted urban sprawl?:An empirical study based on the panel data of 35 large and medium-sized cities in china[J].Journal of Xi’an Jiaotong University(Social Science Edition) ,2017(7):9-18.
[3] 李强,高楠.城市蔓延的生态环境效应研究——基于34个大中城市面板数据的分析[J].中国人口科学,2016(6):58-67.LI Q,GAO N.A study on the effect of urban sprawl on ecological environment:An empirical st-udy based on 34 cities municipal panel data[J].China Population Science,2016(6):58-67.
[4] 李效顺,曲福田,陈友偲,等.经济发展与城市蔓延的Logistic曲线假说及其验证——基于华东地区典型城市的考察[J].自然资源学报,2012(5):714-722.LI X S,QU F T,CHEN Y S,et al.Hypothesis and validation on the logistic curve of economic development and urban sprawl:Based on the investigation of the typical cities in east china[J] .Journal of Natural Resources,2012(5):714-722.
[5] 冷智花,付畅俭.工业化促进了城市扩张吗?[J].经济学家,2016(1):50-57.LENG Z H,FU C J.Does industrialization promote urban expansion?[J].Economist,2016(1):50-57.
[6] 梁辉,王春凯,陈果.我国大城市蔓延过程的异质性与影响因素——来自35个城市的面板数据分析[J].城市发展研究,2017(11):118-124.LIANG H,WANG C K,CHEN G.The heterogeneity and influencing factors of unban sprawl in china’s large cities:A panel data analysis of 35 cities[J].Urban Development Research,2017(11):118-124.
[7] 卢丽文,张毅,李永盛.中国人口城镇化影响因素研究——基于31个省域的空间面板数据[J].地域研究与开发,2014(6):54-59.LU L W,ZHANG Y,LI Y S.The factors influence on china population urbanization:Based on 31 provincial spatial panel data[J].Regional Research and Development,2014(6):54-59.
[8] 周游,谭光荣.空间视角下生产性服务业集聚对城市土地集约利用的影响研究[J].中国土地科学,2016(10):37-46.ZHOU Y,TAN G R.The impacts of productive services agglomeration on the intensity of urban land use from the spatial perspective[J].China Land Science,2016(10):37-46.
[9] 李善同,李华香.城市服务行业分布格局特征及演变趋势研究[J].产业经济研究,2014(5):1-10.LI S T,LI H X.On the characteristics and evolution trends of the distribution pattern of service industries[J].Industrial Economics Research,2014(5):1-10.
[10] 韩峰,王琢卓,杨海余.产业结构对城镇土地集约利用的影响研究[J].资源科学,2013(2):388-395.HAN F,WANG Z Z,Y H Y.The effect of industrial structure on intensive urban land use[J],Resources Science,2013(2):388-395.
[11] JOHN E HASSE,RICHARD G LATHROP.Land resource impact indicators of urban sprawl[J] .Applied Geography ,2003(23):159-175.
[12] SIERRA CLUB.Sierra club report on sprawl[R].http://www.sierraclub.org/sprawl,1998.
[13] 刘洪银,王向.城市蔓延与服务业发展——基于城市面板数据的实证研究[J].财贸研究,2015(3):1-11.LIU H Y,WANG X.Urban sprawl and the services development:based on city panel data[J].Finance and Trade Research,2015(3):1-11.
[14] 董维,蔡之兵.城镇化类型与城市发展战略——来自城市蔓延指数的证据[J].东北大学学报(社会科学版),2016(3):137-142.DONG W,CAI Z B.Types of urbanization and urban development strategies:Based on the urban sprawl index[J].Journal of Northeastern University(Social Science Edition),2016(3):137-142.
[15] 张琳琳,岳文泽,范蓓蕾.中国大城市蔓延的测度研究——以杭州市为例[J].地理科学,2014(4):394-399.ZHANG L L,XUE W Z,FAN P L.A study on the measurement of the spread of big cities in china:A case study of hangzhou[J].Geographical Science,2014(4):394-399.
[16] 李因果,何晓群.面板数据聚类方法及应用[J].统计研究,2010(9):73-77.LI Y G,HE X Q.Panel data clustering method and application[J].Statistical Research,2010(9):73-77.
[17] 陈国亮,陈建军.产业关联、空间地理与二三产业共同集聚——来自中国212个城市的经验考察[J].管理世界,2012(4):82-100.CHEN G L,CHEN J J.Industrial correlation,spatial geography and the integration of secondary and third industries:An empirical study from 212 cities in China [J].Management World 2014(4):394-399.
(1)由于个别城市的数据缺失严重以及一个城市行政区划进行了调整,在此进行了剔除,同时对于建成区面积年变化超过50 km2的城市进行剔除。
(2)本文借鉴李因果,何晓群(2010)[16]的面板聚类分析方法,综合考虑面板数据“绝对指标”、“增量指标”及其“时序波动”特征先进行聚类分析,然后构建三个特征基础上的面板综合距离指标得出最终的聚类分析结果,将其分为集约蔓延型、轻微蔓延型和过度蔓延型.
(3)本文研究为长江经济带104个城市市辖区城市蔓延情况,故地图中所出现的图文数据为104个城市市辖区城市蔓延情况,空白处为未研究地带.
(4)国家统计局:http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/tjbz/hyflbz/.
(5)国务院.《关于调整城市规模划分标准的通知》,2014:以城区人口为统计口径将城市划分为5类:城市人口 1 000 万以上的为超大城市、500～1 000 万为特大城市、100万～500万为大城市、50～100万为中等城市、50万以下为小城市.
(6)受篇幅限制,在此不具体汇报稳健性回归结果.
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