柯西河流域干旱对作物产量的影响及其空间差异
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摘要
干旱是柯西河流域中山区发生最为频繁的气象灾害之一,对农业生产造成极大的影响。利用气象、农业数据,结合线性趋势、回归分析等方法,分析了1998—2015年研究区的干旱变化特征及其对作物单产增长率的影响。结果表明:(1)研究区作物缺水指数呈先上升后下降的趋势,就作物缺水程度来看,南部干旱灾害最为严重,中部其次,北部最轻;(2)干旱对不同作物产量的影响差异显著。当0. 60≤CWSI(作物缺水指数)<0. 63时,小麦单产增长率受到干旱的影响;当0. 63≤CWSI <0. 64时,马铃薯和小麦受到干旱影响;当0. 64≤CWSI <0. 65时,大麦、马铃薯和小麦受到干旱影响;当0. 65≤CWSI <0. 66时,玉米、大麦、马铃薯和小麦受到干旱影响;当CWSI≥0. 66时,玉米、大麦、马铃薯、小麦和水稻等5种作物均受到干旱影响;(3)干旱对作物产量的影响存在显著的区域差异,不同地区的作物受干旱影响的临界值和程度不同。
Drought is one of the most frequent meteorological hazards in the mid-mountain of the Koshi Basin and affects seriously the agricultural production. In this study,the meteorological and agricultural data were used to analyze the drought change and its impact on crop yield in the study area from 1998 to 2015 using the linear trend and regression analysis. The results are as follows:(1) The crop water stress index( CWSI) was increased at first and then decreased. In terms of CWSI,the drought disaster in the southern area was the most serious,then in the central area,and it was the lightest in the north;(2) The impacts of drought on different crops were significantly different.When 0. 60≤CWSI < 0. 63,drought affected the growth rate of wheat yield per unit area. When 0. 63 ≤CWSI <0. 64,the yields of potato and wheat were affected by drought. When 0. 64≤CWSI < 0. 65,the yields of barley,potato and wheat were affected by drought. When 0. 65≤CWSI < 0. 66,the yields of corn,barley,potato and wheat were affected by drought. When CWSI≥0. 66,the yields of corn,barley,potato,wheat and rice were affected by drought;(3) There was a significant spatial difference in the impact of drought on crop yield. The critical values and impact extents caused by drought were different from different regions.
Drought is one of the most frequent meteorological hazards in the mid-mountain of the Koshi Basin and affects seriously the agricultural production. In this study,the meteorological and agricultural data were used to analyze the drought change and its impact on crop yield in the study area from 1998 to 2015 using the linear trend and regression analysis. The results are as follows:(1) The crop water stress index( CWSI) was increased at first and then decreased. In terms of CWSI,the drought disaster in the southern area was the most serious,then in the central area,and it was the lightest in the north;(2) The impacts of drought on different crops were significantly different.When 0. 60≤CWSI < 0. 63,drought affected the growth rate of wheat yield per unit area. When 0. 63 ≤CWSI <0. 64,the yields of potato and wheat were affected by drought. When 0. 64≤CWSI < 0. 65,the yields of barley,potato and wheat were affected by drought. When 0. 65≤CWSI < 0. 66,the yields of corn,barley,potato and wheat were affected by drought. When CWSI≥0. 66,the yields of corn,barley,potato,wheat and rice were affected by drought;(3) There was a significant spatial difference in the impact of drought on crop yield. The critical values and impact extents caused by drought were different from different regions.
引文
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[4]杨晓光,刘志娟,陈阜.全球气候变化变暖对中国种植制度可能影响I.气候变暖对中国种植制度北界和粮食产量可能影响的分析[J].中国农业科学,2010,43(2):329-336.[Yang Xiaoguang,Liu Zhijuan,Chen Fu.The possible effects of global warming on cropping systems in China I.The possible effects of climate warming on northern limits of cropping systems and crop yields in China[J].Scientia Agricultura Sinica,2010,43(2):329-336.]
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[8]赵雪雁.地理学视角的可持续生计研究:现状、问题与领域[J].地理研究,2017,36(10):1 859-1 872.[Zhao Xueyan.Sustainable livelihoods research from the perspective of geography:The present status,questions and priority areas[J].Geographical Research,2017,36(10):1 859-1 872.]
[9]秦大河,Thomas Stocker,259名作者和TSU(驻伯尔尼和北京).IPCC第五次评估报告第一工作组报告的亮点结论[J].气候变化研究进展,2014,10(1):1-6.[Qin Dahe,Thomas Stocker,259 author and TSU(in Bern and Beijing).The highlights conclusions of the first working group of the fifth assessment report of IPCC[J].Progressus Inquisitiones DE Mutatione Climatis,2014,10(1):1-6.]
[10]秦大河.气候变化科学与人类可持续发展[J].地理科学进展,2014,33(7):874-883.[Qin Dahe.Science of climate change and sustainable development of human beings[J].Progress in Geography,2014,33(7):874-883.]
[11]Tian L,Yuan S,Quiring S M.Evaluation of six indices for monitoring agricultural drought in the south-central United States[J].Agricultural&Forest Meteorology,2018,249:107-119.
[12]Sánchez N,González-Zamora,Martínez-Fernández J,et al.Integrated remote sensing approach to global agricultural drought monitoring[J].Agricultural and Forest Meteorology,2018,259:141-153.
[13]Zhao H,Xu Z,Zhao J,et al.A drought rarity and evapotranspiration-based index as a suitable agricultural drought indicator[J].Ecological Indicators,2017,82:530-538.
[14]Dubey A,Kumar A,Abd_Allah E F,et al.Growing more with less:Breeding and developing drought resilient soybean to improve food security[J].Ecological Indicators,2018.
[15]Zhang J,Campana P E,Yao T,et al.The water-food-energy nexus optimization approach to combat agricultural drought:A case study in the United States[J].Applied Energy,2018,227:449-464.
[16]Kim T H,Hur Y J,Han S I,et al.Drought-tolerant QTL q VDT11leads to stable tiller formation under drought stress conditions in rice[J].Plant Science,2016,256:131-138.
[17]Elliott J,Glotter M,Ruane A C,et al.Characterizing agricultural impacts of recent large-scale US droughts and changing technology and management[J].Agricultural Systems,2018,159:275-281.
[18]Musolino D A,Massarutto A,Carli A D.Does drought always cause economic losses in agriculture?An empirical investigation on the distributive effects of drought events in some areas of Southern Europe[J].Science of the Total Environment,2018,633:1 560-1 570.
[19]段素梅,杨安中,黄义德,等.干旱胁迫对水稻生长、生理特性和产量的影响[J].核农学报,2014,28(6):1 124-1 132.[Duan Sumei,Yang Anzhong,Huang Yide,et al.Effects of drought stress on growth and physiological feature and yield of various rice varieties[J].Journal of Nuclear Agricultural Sciences,2014,28(6):1 124-1 132.]
[20]何永坤,唐余学,张建平.中国西南地区干旱对玉米产量影响评估方法[J].农业工程学报,2014,30(23):185-191.[He Yongkun,Tang Yuxue,Zhang Jianping.Evaluation method for effects of drought disaster on yields of maize in Southwest China[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,2014,30(23):185-191.]
[21]颜亮东,李林,李红梅.青海省气象干旱对粮食产量的影响及其评估方法研究[J].冰川冻土,2013,35(3):687-691.[Yan Liangdong,Li Lin,Li Hongmei.The impact of drought on grain output in Qinghai province and how to assess[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2013,35(3):687-691.]
[22]董朝阳,刘志娟,杨晓光.北方地区不同等级干旱对春玉米产量影响[J].农业工程学报,2015,31(11):157-164.[Dong Chaoyang,Liu Zhijuan,Yang Xiaoguang.Effects of different grade drought on grain yield of spring maize in Northern China[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,2015,31(11):157-164.]
[23]徐建文,居辉,梅旭荣,等.近30年黄淮海平原干旱对冬小麦产量的潜在影响模拟[J].农业工程学报,2015,31(6):150-158.[Xu Jianwen,Ju Hui,Mei Xurong,et al.Simulation on potential effects of drought on winter wheat in Huang-Huai-Hai Plain from 1981 to 2010[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,2015,31(6):150-158.]
[24]段骅,唐琪,剧成欣,等.抽穗灌浆早期高温与干旱对不同水稻品种产量和品质的影响[J].中国农业科学,2012,45(22):4 561-4 573.[Duan Ye,Tang Qi,Ju Chengxin,et al.Effect of high temperature and drought on grain yield and quality of different rice varieties during heading and early grain filling periods[J].Scientia Agricultura Sinica,2012,45(22):4 561-4 573.]
[25]Masupha T E,Moeletsi M E.Analysis of potential future droughts limiting maize production,in the Luvuvhu River catchment area,South Africa[J].Physics&Chemistry of the Earth Parts A/b/c,2018,105:44-51.
[26]Doughty R,Xiao X,Wu X,et al.Responses of gross primary production of grasslands and croplands under drought,pluvial,and irrigation conditions during 2010-2016,Oklahoma,USA[J].Agricultural Water Management,2018,204:47-59.
[27]张雪琪,满苏尔·沙比提,马国飞.叶尔羌河平原绿洲气候变化对粮食生产的影响[J].干旱区研究,2018,35(3):705-712.[Zhang Xueqi,Mansuer Shabiti,Ma Guofei.Effects of climate change on grain production in plain oasis in the Yarkant River Basin[J].Arid Zone Research,2018,35(3):705-712.]
[28]聂勇.珠穆朗玛峰地区土地覆被变化研究[D].北京:中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,2010.[Nie Yong.The Research on Land Cover Change in the Everest Region[D].Beijing:Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,CAS,2010.]
[29]Shrestha K.Dictionary of Nepalese Plant Names[M].Mandala Book Point,1998.
[30]李纪人.旱情遥感监测方法及其进展[J].水文,2001,21(4):15-17.[Li Jiren.Method and advances of drought monitoring by remote sensing[J].Journal of China Hydrology,2001,21(4):15-17.]
[31]贾立国,陈玉珍,樊明寿,等.干旱对马铃薯光合特性及块茎形成的影响[J].干旱区资源与环境,2018,32(2):188-193.[Jia Liguo,Chen Yuzhen,Fan Mingshou,et al.Influence of drought stress on potato photosynthetic characteristics and tuberization and its possible mechanism[J].Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,2018,32(2):188-193.]
[32]杜太生,康绍忠.基于水分-品质响应关系的特色经济作物节水调质高效灌溉[J].水利学报,2011,42(2):245-252.[Du Taisheng,Kang Shaozhong.Efficient water-saving irrigation theory based on the response of water and fruit quality for improving quality of economic crops[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2011,42(2):245-252.]
[33]Daryanto S,Wang L,Jacinthe P A.Global synthesis of drought effects on cereal,legume,tuber and root crops production:A review[J].Agricultural Water Management,2017,179:18-33.
[34]王柳,熊伟,温小乐,等.温度降水等气候因子变化对中国玉米产量的影响[J].农业工程学报,2014,30(21):138-146.[Wang Liu,Xiong Wei,Wen Xiaole,et al.Effect of climatic factors such as temperature,precipitation on maize production in China[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,2014,30(21):138-146.]
[2]Dai A.Increasing drought under global warming in observations and models[J].Nature Climate Change,2013,3(1):52-58.
[3]Touma D,Ashfaq M,Nayak M A,et al.A multi-model and multiindex evaluation of drought characteristics in the 21st century[J].Journal of Hydrology,2015,526:196-207.
[4]杨晓光,刘志娟,陈阜.全球气候变化变暖对中国种植制度可能影响I.气候变暖对中国种植制度北界和粮食产量可能影响的分析[J].中国农业科学,2010,43(2):329-336.[Yang Xiaoguang,Liu Zhijuan,Chen Fu.The possible effects of global warming on cropping systems in China I.The possible effects of climate warming on northern limits of cropping systems and crop yields in China[J].Scientia Agricultura Sinica,2010,43(2):329-336.]
[5]Wang J,Mendelsohn R,Dinar A,et al.The impact of climate change on China’s agriculture[J].Agricultural Economics,2009,40:323-337.
[6]林而达,吴绍洪,戴晓苏,等.气候变化影响的最新认知[J].气候变化研究进展,2007,3(3):125-131.[Lin Erda,Wu Shaohong,Dai Xiaosu,et al.Update understanding of climate change impacts[J].Advances in Climate Change Research,2007,3(3):125-131.]
[7]郑艺,张丽,周宇,等.1982-2012年全球干旱区植被变化及驱动因子分析[J].干旱区研究,2017,34(1):59-66.[Zheng Yi,Zhang Li,Zhou Yu,et al.Vegetation change and its driving factors in global dry lands during the period of 1982-2012[J].Arid Zone Research,2017,34(1):59-66.]
[8]赵雪雁.地理学视角的可持续生计研究:现状、问题与领域[J].地理研究,2017,36(10):1 859-1 872.[Zhao Xueyan.Sustainable livelihoods research from the perspective of geography:The present status,questions and priority areas[J].Geographical Research,2017,36(10):1 859-1 872.]
[9]秦大河,Thomas Stocker,259名作者和TSU(驻伯尔尼和北京).IPCC第五次评估报告第一工作组报告的亮点结论[J].气候变化研究进展,2014,10(1):1-6.[Qin Dahe,Thomas Stocker,259 author and TSU(in Bern and Beijing).The highlights conclusions of the first working group of the fifth assessment report of IPCC[J].Progressus Inquisitiones DE Mutatione Climatis,2014,10(1):1-6.]
[10]秦大河.气候变化科学与人类可持续发展[J].地理科学进展,2014,33(7):874-883.[Qin Dahe.Science of climate change and sustainable development of human beings[J].Progress in Geography,2014,33(7):874-883.]
[11]Tian L,Yuan S,Quiring S M.Evaluation of six indices for monitoring agricultural drought in the south-central United States[J].Agricultural&Forest Meteorology,2018,249:107-119.
[12]Sánchez N,González-Zamora,Martínez-Fernández J,et al.Integrated remote sensing approach to global agricultural drought monitoring[J].Agricultural and Forest Meteorology,2018,259:141-153.
[13]Zhao H,Xu Z,Zhao J,et al.A drought rarity and evapotranspiration-based index as a suitable agricultural drought indicator[J].Ecological Indicators,2017,82:530-538.
[14]Dubey A,Kumar A,Abd_Allah E F,et al.Growing more with less:Breeding and developing drought resilient soybean to improve food security[J].Ecological Indicators,2018.
[15]Zhang J,Campana P E,Yao T,et al.The water-food-energy nexus optimization approach to combat agricultural drought:A case study in the United States[J].Applied Energy,2018,227:449-464.
[16]Kim T H,Hur Y J,Han S I,et al.Drought-tolerant QTL q VDT11leads to stable tiller formation under drought stress conditions in rice[J].Plant Science,2016,256:131-138.
[17]Elliott J,Glotter M,Ruane A C,et al.Characterizing agricultural impacts of recent large-scale US droughts and changing technology and management[J].Agricultural Systems,2018,159:275-281.
[18]Musolino D A,Massarutto A,Carli A D.Does drought always cause economic losses in agriculture?An empirical investigation on the distributive effects of drought events in some areas of Southern Europe[J].Science of the Total Environment,2018,633:1 560-1 570.
[19]段素梅,杨安中,黄义德,等.干旱胁迫对水稻生长、生理特性和产量的影响[J].核农学报,2014,28(6):1 124-1 132.[Duan Sumei,Yang Anzhong,Huang Yide,et al.Effects of drought stress on growth and physiological feature and yield of various rice varieties[J].Journal of Nuclear Agricultural Sciences,2014,28(6):1 124-1 132.]
[20]何永坤,唐余学,张建平.中国西南地区干旱对玉米产量影响评估方法[J].农业工程学报,2014,30(23):185-191.[He Yongkun,Tang Yuxue,Zhang Jianping.Evaluation method for effects of drought disaster on yields of maize in Southwest China[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,2014,30(23):185-191.]
[21]颜亮东,李林,李红梅.青海省气象干旱对粮食产量的影响及其评估方法研究[J].冰川冻土,2013,35(3):687-691.[Yan Liangdong,Li Lin,Li Hongmei.The impact of drought on grain output in Qinghai province and how to assess[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2013,35(3):687-691.]
[22]董朝阳,刘志娟,杨晓光.北方地区不同等级干旱对春玉米产量影响[J].农业工程学报,2015,31(11):157-164.[Dong Chaoyang,Liu Zhijuan,Yang Xiaoguang.Effects of different grade drought on grain yield of spring maize in Northern China[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,2015,31(11):157-164.]
[23]徐建文,居辉,梅旭荣,等.近30年黄淮海平原干旱对冬小麦产量的潜在影响模拟[J].农业工程学报,2015,31(6):150-158.[Xu Jianwen,Ju Hui,Mei Xurong,et al.Simulation on potential effects of drought on winter wheat in Huang-Huai-Hai Plain from 1981 to 2010[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,2015,31(6):150-158.]
[24]段骅,唐琪,剧成欣,等.抽穗灌浆早期高温与干旱对不同水稻品种产量和品质的影响[J].中国农业科学,2012,45(22):4 561-4 573.[Duan Ye,Tang Qi,Ju Chengxin,et al.Effect of high temperature and drought on grain yield and quality of different rice varieties during heading and early grain filling periods[J].Scientia Agricultura Sinica,2012,45(22):4 561-4 573.]
[25]Masupha T E,Moeletsi M E.Analysis of potential future droughts limiting maize production,in the Luvuvhu River catchment area,South Africa[J].Physics&Chemistry of the Earth Parts A/b/c,2018,105:44-51.
[26]Doughty R,Xiao X,Wu X,et al.Responses of gross primary production of grasslands and croplands under drought,pluvial,and irrigation conditions during 2010-2016,Oklahoma,USA[J].Agricultural Water Management,2018,204:47-59.
[27]张雪琪,满苏尔·沙比提,马国飞.叶尔羌河平原绿洲气候变化对粮食生产的影响[J].干旱区研究,2018,35(3):705-712.[Zhang Xueqi,Mansuer Shabiti,Ma Guofei.Effects of climate change on grain production in plain oasis in the Yarkant River Basin[J].Arid Zone Research,2018,35(3):705-712.]
[28]聂勇.珠穆朗玛峰地区土地覆被变化研究[D].北京:中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,2010.[Nie Yong.The Research on Land Cover Change in the Everest Region[D].Beijing:Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,CAS,2010.]
[29]Shrestha K.Dictionary of Nepalese Plant Names[M].Mandala Book Point,1998.
[30]李纪人.旱情遥感监测方法及其进展[J].水文,2001,21(4):15-17.[Li Jiren.Method and advances of drought monitoring by remote sensing[J].Journal of China Hydrology,2001,21(4):15-17.]
[31]贾立国,陈玉珍,樊明寿,等.干旱对马铃薯光合特性及块茎形成的影响[J].干旱区资源与环境,2018,32(2):188-193.[Jia Liguo,Chen Yuzhen,Fan Mingshou,et al.Influence of drought stress on potato photosynthetic characteristics and tuberization and its possible mechanism[J].Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,2018,32(2):188-193.]
[32]杜太生,康绍忠.基于水分-品质响应关系的特色经济作物节水调质高效灌溉[J].水利学报,2011,42(2):245-252.[Du Taisheng,Kang Shaozhong.Efficient water-saving irrigation theory based on the response of water and fruit quality for improving quality of economic crops[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2011,42(2):245-252.]
[33]Daryanto S,Wang L,Jacinthe P A.Global synthesis of drought effects on cereal,legume,tuber and root crops production:A review[J].Agricultural Water Management,2017,179:18-33.
[34]王柳,熊伟,温小乐,等.温度降水等气候因子变化对中国玉米产量的影响[J].农业工程学报,2014,30(21):138-146.[Wang Liu,Xiong Wei,Wen Xiaole,et al.Effect of climatic factors such as temperature,precipitation on maize production in China[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,2014,30(21):138-146.]
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