京津冀一体化下交通运输业碳排放核算及其影响因素研究
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摘要
碳排放核算是城市低碳发展研究的基础。作为三大城市碳排放源产业之一,交通运输业是重点关注对象。以京津冀交通运输业碳排放核算为起点,采用偏最小二乘法开展驱动因子分析,通过两阶段参数估计评估各影响因素的变化趋势。结果表明:在京津冀城市群中,北京将最先达到碳排放峰值;人口规模、人均GDP、能源强度与货物周转量是城市群交通运输业碳排放的主要影响因素,且具有两阶段变化特征;在一体化背景下,京津冀地区需开展加快产业结构升级、支持新能源汽车的研发与发展智能交通建设等交通运输领域的减排举措。
Carbon emission accounting is the basis for urban low carbon development research.As one of the carbon source industries of the three major cities,the transportation industry is the focus of attention.Based on the carbon emission accounting of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei transportation industry,this study uses partial least squares method to carry out driving factor analysis,and evaluates the trend of each influencing factor through two-stage parameter estimation.The results show that:in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration,Beijing will first reach the peak of carbon emissions.Population size,per capita GDP,energy intensity and cargo turnover rate are the main factors affecting the carbon emissions of urban agglomeration transportation;they have two-stage change characteristics.In the context of integration,the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region needs to accelerate the transfer of industrial structure,and the transportation sector should support the research and development of new energy vehicles and develop energy-saving measures such as intelligent transportation construction.
Carbon emission accounting is the basis for urban low carbon development research.As one of the carbon source industries of the three major cities,the transportation industry is the focus of attention.Based on the carbon emission accounting of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei transportation industry,this study uses partial least squares method to carry out driving factor analysis,and evaluates the trend of each influencing factor through two-stage parameter estimation.The results show that:in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration,Beijing will first reach the peak of carbon emissions.Population size,per capita GDP,energy intensity and cargo turnover rate are the main factors affecting the carbon emissions of urban agglomeration transportation;they have two-stage change characteristics.In the context of integration,the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region needs to accelerate the transfer of industrial structure,and the transportation sector should support the research and development of new energy vehicles and develop energy-saving measures such as intelligent transportation construction.
引文
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[2] SHAN Y,GUAN D,LIU J,et al. Methodology and applications of city level CO2emission accounts in China[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production,2017,161:1215-1225.
[3] KAYA Y. Impact of carbon dioxide emission control on GNP growth:Interpretation of proposed scenarios[C]//The IPCC energy and industry subgroup. Paris:Response Strategies Working Group,1990.
[4] DIETZ T,ROSA E A. Effects of population and affluence on CO2emissions[J]. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,1997,94(1):175-179.
[5] SHI A. The impact of population pressure on global carbon dioxide emissions,1975—1996:Evidence from pooled crosscountry data[J]. Ecological Economics,2003,44(1):29-42.
[6] SHAHBAZ M,LOGANATHAN N,SBIA R,et al. The effect of urbanization,affluence and trade openness on energy consumption:A time series analysis in Malaysia[J]. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews,2015,47(11):683-693.
[7] WANG Z,YIN F,ZHANG Y,et al. An empirical research on the influencing factors of regional CO2emissions:Evidence from Beijing city,China[J]. Applied Energy,2012,100:277-284.
[8] LI B,LIU,LI Z. Using the STIRPAT model to explore the factors driving regional CO2emissions:A case of Tianji,China[J].Natural Hazards,2015,76(3):1667-1685.
[9]黄蕊,王铮,丁冠群,等.基于STIRPA模型的江苏省能源消费碳排放影响因素分析及趋势预测[J].地理研究,2016(4):781-789.
[10]王立猛,何康林.基于STIRPAT模型的环境压力空间差异分析———以能源消费为例[J].环境科学学报,2008(5):1032-1037.
[11]陈永国,褚尚军,聂锐.京津冀及周边地区碳排放驱动因素的贡献作用及其政策含义[J].河北经贸大学学报,2016(1):102-106.
[12]时兆会.基于STIRPAT模型北京市交通运输业碳排放影响因素研究[D].天津:天津大学. 2017.
[13]徐雪艺.基于多维度的区域交通低碳化系统动力学模型研究[D].北京:北京交通大学. 2018.
[14]冯悦怡,张力小.城市节能与碳减排政策情景分析———以北京市为例[J].资源科学,2012,34(3):541-550.
[15]吕倩,高俊莲.京津冀地区交通运输碳排放模型及驱动因素分析[J].生态经济,2018,34(1):31-36.
[16]唐志中,刘雪静,李波,等.京津冀区域碳排放的关键驱动因素研究[J].天津大学学报(社会科学版),2017,19(6):514-518.
[17]李艳梅,孙丽云,张红丽,等.京津冀区域间产业转移对能源消费碳排放强度的影响[J].资源科学,2017,39(12):2275-2286.