空气质量对京沪入境旅游流的对比影响研究——基于VAR模型
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摘要
空气质量是影响入境旅游发展的重要因素。文章以京沪两地的空气质量和入境旅游游客的月度数据为例,建立两地空气质量指标和入境旅游之间的VAR模型。利用脉冲响应分别分析了京沪两地的空气质量对入境旅游的动态冲击作用。脉冲响应分析结果表明:北京市较严重的空气污染问题对其入境旅游的影响作用微乎其微,而上海市的入境旅游状况受到其空气质量的负面影响较大。研究得出:空气污染和入境旅游之间不是简单的负面影响关系,而是因不同地区之间的差异有不同的动态冲击作用。根据研究结果,文章提出了针对京沪两地的管理措施以促进两地的入境旅游发展。
Air quality is an important factor aff ecting the inbound tourism development. Taking the monthly data of air quality and inbound tourist arrivals of Beijing and Shanghai as examples, this study establishes the VAR model to analyze the relationship between air quality and inbound tourist arrivals in Beijing and Shanghai. By the impulse response, this paper analyzes the influence of air quality on inbound tourism. The results show that the serious air pollution problem in Beijing has little effect on its inbound tourist arrivals, but the inbound tourism situation in Shanghai is greatly affected by its air quality. The study comes to the conclusions that the relationship between air pollution and inbound tourist arrivals is not only the negative impact, but different dynamic influence depending on the differences between different regions. Finally, based on the results of the study, the management measures for Beijing and Shanghai are proposed to promote the inbound tourism development.
Air quality is an important factor aff ecting the inbound tourism development. Taking the monthly data of air quality and inbound tourist arrivals of Beijing and Shanghai as examples, this study establishes the VAR model to analyze the relationship between air quality and inbound tourist arrivals in Beijing and Shanghai. By the impulse response, this paper analyzes the influence of air quality on inbound tourism. The results show that the serious air pollution problem in Beijing has little effect on its inbound tourist arrivals, but the inbound tourism situation in Shanghai is greatly affected by its air quality. The study comes to the conclusions that the relationship between air pollution and inbound tourist arrivals is not only the negative impact, but different dynamic influence depending on the differences between different regions. Finally, based on the results of the study, the management measures for Beijing and Shanghai are proposed to promote the inbound tourism development.
引文
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[19]中华人民共和国文化和旅游部.京沪陕三地首建国内入境游省际合作机制[EB/OL].(2018-07-24)[2019-01-20].https://www.mct.gov.cn/whzx/qgwhxxlb/bj/201807/t20180724_833936.htm.
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[22]唐洁尘,袁新宇.空气污染与北京入境旅游业发展关系的实证研究:基于VAR模型[J].生态经济,2018,34(4):114-118.
[23]徐璐.雾霾对入境游客规模及潜在入境游客决策影响研究[D].上海:上海师范大学,2016.
[2]中华人民共和国文化和旅游部.京沪陕三地首建国内入境游省际合作机制[EB/OL].(2018-07-24)[2019-02-10].https://www.mct.gov.cn/whzx/qgwhxxlb/bj/201807/t20180724_833936.htm.
[3]HU W, WALL G. Environmental management, environmental image and the competitive tourist attraction[J]. Journal of Sustainable Tourism,2005, 13(6):617-635.
[4]经济世界.2018年全球环境绩效指数报告[EB/OL].(2018-01-24)[2019-01-20].http://www.economyworld.net:9091/economyworld/detail/init?infoId=357134.
[5]中华人民共和国生态环境部.2017中国生态环境状况公报[R].北京.2018-05-22.
[6]HU Z Y, KUANG Y Q, WU Z F, et al. Environmental quality and its impact on the local economy:A case study from Dongguan,south China[J]. International Journal of Sustainable Development&World Ecology, 2005, 12(3):291-299.
[7]刘嘉毅,陈玉萍,夏鑫.中国空气污染对入境旅游发展的影响[J].资源科学,2018,40(7):1473-1482.
[8]ZHOU B, QU H, DU X Q, et al. Air quality and inbound tourism in China[J]. Tourism Analysis, 2018, 23(1):159-164.
[9]任闯,孙瑞红,叶欣梁.城市空气质量与入境旅游关系研究[J].上海工程技术大学学报,2017,31(4):361-366.
[10]SCHUBERT S F, BRIDA J G, RISSO W A. The impacts of international tourism demand on economic growth of small economies dependent on tourism[J]. Tourism Management, 2011, 32(2):377-385.
[11]李静,PEARCE P L,吴必虎,et al.雾霾对来京旅游者风险感知及旅游体验的影响:基于结构方程模型的中外旅游者对比研究[J].旅游学刊,2015,30(10):48-59.
[12]DENG T, LI X, MA M. Evaluating impact of air pollution on China’s inbound tourism industry:a spatial econometric approach[J].Asia Pacific Journal of Tourism Research, 2017, 22(7):771-780.
[13]唐承财,冯时,戴湘毅.雾霾天气对北京入境旅游者的影响分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2017,31(8):198-202.
[14]唐承财,马蕾,宋昌耀.雾霾天气影响北京入境旅游吗?:基于面板数据的实证检验[J].干旱区资源与环境,2017,31(1):192-197.
[15]阎友兵,张静.基于本底趋势线的雾霾天气对我国入境游客量的影响分析[J].经济地理,2016,36(12):183-188.
[16]吴晋峰,潘旭莉.京沪入境旅游流网络结构特征分析[J].地理科学,2010,30(3):370-376.
[17]贺晓慧,白凯,卫海燕.基于WE-GCM的入境旅游城市意象评价指标体系研究:以北京和上海为例[J].旅游论坛,2011,4(6):98-102.
[18]中国空气质量在线监测分析平台.空气质量历史数据查询[EB/OL].[2019-03-01].https://www.aqistudy.cn/historydata/.
[19]中华人民共和国文化和旅游部.京沪陕三地首建国内入境游省际合作机制[EB/OL].(2018-07-24)[2019-01-20].https://www.mct.gov.cn/whzx/qgwhxxlb/bj/201807/t20180724_833936.htm.
[20]SIMS C A. Macroeconomics and Reality[J]. Econometrica, 1980, 48(1):1-48.
[21]高铁梅.计量经济分析方法与建模:Eviews应用及实例[M].3版.北京:清华大学出版社,2016.
[22]唐洁尘,袁新宇.空气污染与北京入境旅游业发展关系的实证研究:基于VAR模型[J].生态经济,2018,34(4):114-118.
[23]徐璐.雾霾对入境游客规模及潜在入境游客决策影响研究[D].上海:上海师范大学,2016.