河南省碳排放与产业结构关联性研究分析
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摘要
党的十九大报告为国家未来发展指明新的方向,发展经济不能以牺牲环境为代价,中国将继续坚定履行《巴黎协定》承诺,在2030年使二氧化碳的排放达到峰值,2030年国内生产总值二氧化碳排放比2005年下降60%～65%。研究产业结构对我国碳排放产生的影响,对寻找减排途径,实现减排目标具有重要意义。文章使用灰色关联模型对河南省三次产业结构和碳排放进行关联性分析,结果表明第二产业和碳排放的关联度最大。进一步对第二产业内部结构和工业碳排放总量进行关联性分析,测算得工业内部中有一部分行业和碳排放之间的显著的关联性。最后在进行产业结构调整时,要同时注意减排和发展两个因素。
The 19 th national congress of the Communist Party of China sets the new direction for future development of the country. Economic development cannot be done at the expense of the environment. China will continue implement its commitment under the Paris Agreement to achieve peak carbon dioxide emission by 2030, and reduce carbon dioxide emission by 60%～65% from 2005. Studying the impact of industrial structure on China's carbon emissions is of great significance to finding ways to reduce emissions and to achieving the emission reduction targets. This paper uses the gray relational model to analyze the correlation between the three industrial structures and carbon emissions in Henan Province. The results show that the secondary industry has the highest correlation with carbon emissions. Further analysis of the correlation between the internal structure of the secondary industry and the total amount of industrial carbon emissions shows that there is a significant correlation between some industries and carbon emissions in the industrial interior. Finally, in the process of industrial restructuring, we must pay attention to both emission reduction and development
The 19 th national congress of the Communist Party of China sets the new direction for future development of the country. Economic development cannot be done at the expense of the environment. China will continue implement its commitment under the Paris Agreement to achieve peak carbon dioxide emission by 2030, and reduce carbon dioxide emission by 60%～65% from 2005. Studying the impact of industrial structure on China's carbon emissions is of great significance to finding ways to reduce emissions and to achieving the emission reduction targets. This paper uses the gray relational model to analyze the correlation between the three industrial structures and carbon emissions in Henan Province. The results show that the secondary industry has the highest correlation with carbon emissions. Further analysis of the correlation between the internal structure of the secondary industry and the total amount of industrial carbon emissions shows that there is a significant correlation between some industries and carbon emissions in the industrial interior. Finally, in the process of industrial restructuring, we must pay attention to both emission reduction and development
引文
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[13]郑长德,刘帅.产业结构与碳排放:基于中国省际面板数据的实证分析[J].开发研究,2011(2):26-33.
[14]张丽峰.我国产业结构、能源结构和碳排放关系研究[J].干旱区资源与环境,2011(5):1-7.
[15]虞义华,郑新业,张莉.经济发展水平、产业结构与碳排放强度--中国省级面板数据分析[J].经济理论与经济管理,2011(3):72-81.
[16]方伟成,孙成访.基于灰色关联分析法的东莞市工业结构与碳排放的关系[J].水电能源科学,2013(4):240-242.
[17]贾共鹏.能源折算标准系数的合理选择[J].冶金能源,2011(1):3-4.
[18]邓聚龙.灰色系统理论教程[M].武汉:华中理工大学出版社,1990.
[19]刘思峰,蔡华,杨英杰,等.灰色关联分析模型研究进展[J]系统工程理论与实践,2013(8):2041-2046.
[20]刘思峰,杨英杰,吴利丰.灰色系统理论及其应用[M].北京:科学出版社,2014.
[21]Ouyang X,Lin B.An analysis of the driving forces of energyrelated carbon dioxide emissions in China’s industrial sector[J]Renewable,Sustainable Energy Reviews,2015,45:838-849.
[22]李波,张俊飚.基于投入视角的我国农业碳排放与经济发展脱钩研究[J].经济经纬,2012(4):27-31.
[23]刘立平.河南省农业碳排放时空特征及影响因素研究[J].水土保持研究,2014(4):179-183.
[24]杨凤娟.河南省第三产业发展状况及竞争力实证研究[J].河南大学学报(社会科学版),2014(5):13-18.
[25]许勤.河南省第三产业现状研究[J].河南财政税务高等专科学校学报,2013(4):55-59.
[26]葛华,高尚.河南省第三产业灰色关联分析与持续发展[J].经济视角(下旬刊),2013(10):31-33.
[27]王超,马海燕,张亚珂,等.河南支柱产业演变实证研究[J]市场研究,2016(7):26-29.
[28]魏军晓,耿元波,沈镭,等.中国水泥生产与碳排放现状分析[J].环境科学与技术,2015(8):80-86.
[29]吴晓华,李磊.中国碳生产率与能源效率省际差异及提升潜力[J].经济地理,2014(5):105-108.
[2]郑丽琳,朱启贵.中国碳排放库兹涅茨曲线存在性研究[J].统计研究,2012(5):58-65.
[3]Mart?nez-Zarzoso I,Bengochea-Morancho A.Pooled mean group estimation of an environmental Kuznets curve for CO2[J].Economics Letters,2004,82(1):121-126.
[4]Al-Mulali U,Saboori B,Ozturkc I.Investigating the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis in Vietnam[J].Energy Policy,2015(76):123-131.
[5]陈茜,苏利阳,汝醒君.发达国家不同发展阶段碳排放与经济增长的因果关系分析[J].生态经济,2010(4):52-55.
[6]Soytas U,Sari R,Ewing B T.Energy consumption,income carbon emissions in the United States[J].Ecological Economics,2007,62(3):482-489.
[7]张友国.经济发展方式变化对中国碳排放强度的影响[J].经济研究,2010(4):120-133.
[8]丁志国,程云龙,孟含琪.碳排放、产业结构调整与中国经济增长方式选择[J].吉林大学社会科学学报,2012(5):90-97.
[9]郭朝先.产业结构变动对中国碳排放的影响[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2012(7):15-20.
[10]Liu C,Duan M,Zhang X,et al.Empirical research on the contributions of industrial restructuring to low-carbon development[J].Energy Procedia,2011,5(5):834-838.
[11]Zhang X Q,Ren J L.The relationship between carbon dioxide emissions,industrial structure adjustment for Shandong Province[J].Energy Procedia,2011,5:1121-1125.
[12]李健,周慧.中国碳排放强度与产业结构的关联分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2012(1):7-14.
[13]郑长德,刘帅.产业结构与碳排放:基于中国省际面板数据的实证分析[J].开发研究,2011(2):26-33.
[14]张丽峰.我国产业结构、能源结构和碳排放关系研究[J].干旱区资源与环境,2011(5):1-7.
[15]虞义华,郑新业,张莉.经济发展水平、产业结构与碳排放强度--中国省级面板数据分析[J].经济理论与经济管理,2011(3):72-81.
[16]方伟成,孙成访.基于灰色关联分析法的东莞市工业结构与碳排放的关系[J].水电能源科学,2013(4):240-242.
[17]贾共鹏.能源折算标准系数的合理选择[J].冶金能源,2011(1):3-4.
[18]邓聚龙.灰色系统理论教程[M].武汉:华中理工大学出版社,1990.
[19]刘思峰,蔡华,杨英杰,等.灰色关联分析模型研究进展[J]系统工程理论与实践,2013(8):2041-2046.
[20]刘思峰,杨英杰,吴利丰.灰色系统理论及其应用[M].北京:科学出版社,2014.
[21]Ouyang X,Lin B.An analysis of the driving forces of energyrelated carbon dioxide emissions in China’s industrial sector[J]Renewable,Sustainable Energy Reviews,2015,45:838-849.
[22]李波,张俊飚.基于投入视角的我国农业碳排放与经济发展脱钩研究[J].经济经纬,2012(4):27-31.
[23]刘立平.河南省农业碳排放时空特征及影响因素研究[J].水土保持研究,2014(4):179-183.
[24]杨凤娟.河南省第三产业发展状况及竞争力实证研究[J].河南大学学报(社会科学版),2014(5):13-18.
[25]许勤.河南省第三产业现状研究[J].河南财政税务高等专科学校学报,2013(4):55-59.
[26]葛华,高尚.河南省第三产业灰色关联分析与持续发展[J].经济视角(下旬刊),2013(10):31-33.
[27]王超,马海燕,张亚珂,等.河南支柱产业演变实证研究[J]市场研究,2016(7):26-29.
[28]魏军晓,耿元波,沈镭,等.中国水泥生产与碳排放现状分析[J].环境科学与技术,2015(8):80-86.
[29]吴晓华,李磊.中国碳生产率与能源效率省际差异及提升潜力[J].经济地理,2014(5):105-108.
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