城市开发区人口分布预测及其规划价值——以西安市高新区为例
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摘要
人口分布预测对城市开发区等小区域产业布局、市政设施、公共服务规划等具有重要参考价值。以西安市高新技术开发区为例,使用历次人口普查、土地利用、主城区变化等数据,采用灰色理论预测人口和城区扩展,采用格网化方法绘制人口格网密度分布图,并比例推测和预判中长期人口分布变动趋势。研究发现西安高新区2020年人口分布仍较集中且密度增大,2035年人口继续向近郊区蔓延,2050年人口分布情景取决于诸多可变因素。预测结果启示开发区应通过设计混合功能区空间模式、保障基础教育资源公平布局、建立高水准的轨道交通网络、避免冒进的土地城镇化等方式实现快速持续发展。
The projection of population distribution has an outstanding reference value for the development of urban development zones on spatial expansion,municipal facilities,and public services. Taking Xi'an Hightech Development Zone as an example,based on the censuses data in 1982,1990,2000,and 2010,as well as data of the land use and the main urban area changes,the Grey Theory is used to predict population and urban expansion. The Grid Method is used to map the population density map. The proportion method is used to project the medium and long-term population distribution. The study found that the population distribution of the urban development zone still distributed concentrated in 2020. Moreover,the population distribution in2035 spread to the southern suburbs of the development zone. The distribution of the 2050 population depends on many variables which we could not forecast right now. The study believes that population distribution prediction has an essential value for urban development zone planning. The development zone should be realized by designing the spatial pattern of mixed functional zones,ensuring the fair distribution of primary education resources,establishing a high-level rail transit network,and avoiding the excessive land urbanization.
The projection of population distribution has an outstanding reference value for the development of urban development zones on spatial expansion,municipal facilities,and public services. Taking Xi'an Hightech Development Zone as an example,based on the censuses data in 1982,1990,2000,and 2010,as well as data of the land use and the main urban area changes,the Grey Theory is used to predict population and urban expansion. The Grid Method is used to map the population density map. The proportion method is used to project the medium and long-term population distribution. The study found that the population distribution of the urban development zone still distributed concentrated in 2020. Moreover,the population distribution in2035 spread to the southern suburbs of the development zone. The distribution of the 2050 population depends on many variables which we could not forecast right now. The study believes that population distribution prediction has an essential value for urban development zone planning. The development zone should be realized by designing the spatial pattern of mixed functional zones,ensuring the fair distribution of primary education resources,establishing a high-level rail transit network,and avoiding the excessive land urbanization.
引文
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[15]朱伟.灰色预测模型及其应用[J].数学杂志,1998,18(S1):133-135.
[16]米瑞华,石英,冯飞.基于历次人口普查的西安市人口分布预测研究[J].西北大学学报(自然科学版),2015,45(6):1001-1006.
[17]陈蓉,左学金,王美凤.我国未来人口长期变动情景———基于稳定人口模型的考察[J].社会科学,2018(1):55-63.
[18] ZHAO Z,XU Q,YUAN X. Farbelowreplacementfertilityinurban China[J]. Journalof Biosocial Science,2017,49:S4-S19.
[19]王欢,杨海娟.大城市郊区农地流转特征及影响因素实证研究———基于西安市秦岭北麓684户农户调查[J].西北大学学报(自然科学版),2018,48(2):284-290.
[2] WOODS R. Population Analysis in Geography[M].London:Longman,1979:226-248.
[3] MAROIS G,BLANGER A. Analyzing the impact of urban planning on population distribution in the montreal metropolitan area using a small-area micro-simulation prediction model[J]. Popul Environ,2015,37(2):131-156.
[4] TERAMA E,CLARKE E,ROUNSEVELL MDA,et al. Modelling population structure in the context of urban land use change in Europe[J]. Regional Environmental Change,2017,17:1-11.
[5]刘纪远,岳天祥,王英安,等.中国人口密度数字模拟[J].地理学报,2003(1):17-24.
[6]李俊莉,王慧,曹明明.西安市人口的分布变动与郊区化研究[C]∥中国地理学会、中山大学、中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所.中国地理学会2004年学术年会暨海峡两岸地理学术研讨会论文摘要集.中国地理学会、中山大学、中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,2004:1.
[7]陈楠,林宗坚,王钦敏,等.基于灰色理论的中国人口空间分布模式预测[J].经济地理,2006,26(5):759-762.
[8]岳天祥,王英安,张倩,等.北京市人口空间分布的未来情景模拟分析[J].地球信息科学,2008,4:479-488.
[9]曾永明.中国人口空间分布形态模拟与预测———基于“五普”和“六普”的分县尺度人口密度研究[J].人口与经济,2016(6):48-61.
[10]王海运,赵常庆,李建民,等.“丝绸之路经济带”构想的背景、潜在挑战和未来走势[J].欧亚经济,2014(4):5-58+126.
[11]左学金.我国人口空间分布的未来情景[N].社会科学报,2016-12-08(002).
[12] RYDER N B. The process of demographic translation[J]. Demography,1964,1:74-82.
[13] NURMAN. Demography composition and distribution in Indonesia perspective for population prediction and jobs opportunity[J]. Man in India,2016,96:4417-4435.
[14]徐建华.现代地理学中的数学方法[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2002.
[15]朱伟.灰色预测模型及其应用[J].数学杂志,1998,18(S1):133-135.
[16]米瑞华,石英,冯飞.基于历次人口普查的西安市人口分布预测研究[J].西北大学学报(自然科学版),2015,45(6):1001-1006.
[17]陈蓉,左学金,王美凤.我国未来人口长期变动情景———基于稳定人口模型的考察[J].社会科学,2018(1):55-63.
[18] ZHAO Z,XU Q,YUAN X. Farbelowreplacementfertilityinurban China[J]. Journalof Biosocial Science,2017,49:S4-S19.
[19]王欢,杨海娟.大城市郊区农地流转特征及影响因素实证研究———基于西安市秦岭北麓684户农户调查[J].西北大学学报(自然科学版),2018,48(2):284-290.